*This page will be updated daily – will be updating each team that plays and the date will be posted for each team to indicate it has been updated to include the most recent game.* (Updated 3/17)

Chaos has ensued as seemingly every bid stealing opportunity we were monitoring was cashed in yesterday and now the bubble is as small as it’s ever been. We saw New Mexico, Oregon, NC State, UAB/Temple (American) add to what the A10 started, as we have quickly lost 5 spots to bid-stealers over the last 48 hours or so. We held off on locking some teams, thankfully, as the worst case scenario for bubble teams has played out. We are now looking at teams everyone thought to be safely in heading to Dayton or maybe even out of the field entirely. I have some locks who are now residing in the Last 4 Byes as 9 seeds, seemingly unprecedented. Let’s break it down, one last time. 

We are down to the Last 4 In and First 4 Out, as I just have 8 teams in consideration for the final 4 spots to Dayton right now. Anyone beyond that First 4 Out I have listed as dead. These are all my own projections, and will certainly differ from other prognosticators, but will serve to show you generally who is in a better position than whom at this stage. 

For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), NET SOS and a final category being the Q1(A) record. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 68 teams on the first watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 3/17. Check out my current bracket projection here. 

Bubble Breakdown:

Total Bids: 68

1-bid conferences: 22

Bid Stealers: 5

Locks: 37

Bids Left: 4

Bubble: 8 

---

–ACC–

Locks: 

         

First 4 Out:

Virginia: 23-10 (13-7) — Q1: (2-6) Q2: (8-4) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (78) Q1(A): (1-3) 

Virginia lost a heart breaker last night to NC State, after missing a FT to make it a 4 point game the Wolfpack rushed down and banked in a tying 3 to force OT. Virginia fell in OT and now will have a very nerve wracking wait until Selection Sunday. I currently have them in, but again, you need to be rooting for chalk finishes in these conference tourney’s I mentioned above, as the bubble shrinking could squeeze out a team like Virginia. Right now they cling to their road win over Clemson, neutral site win over Florida as well as home wins over Texas A&M and Wake Forest. It’s not a great group of wins, but the perfect record in Q3/4 is a big plus as well, something few bubble teams can boast. I think the 10-10 record in Q1/2 plus the 0 bad losses will be enough to get them in, but man it’ll be close, especially if things tighten up. Things did in fact tighten up, and now their competition is teams like Michigan St, Mississippi St and Colorado, they just don’t have the wins in my opinion to get in over teams like that. I now have Virginia out, as that O’Connell 3 will haunt UVA fans for years to come.  (3/17)

Dead:

Pitt: 22-11 (12-8) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (6-2) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (83) Q1(A): (1-4)

Pitt fell to UNC in spite of a great effort, and ultimately I think will fall just short of a tourney bid. You certainly can argue at the top Pitt has the edge on a team like Virginia in the good wins category, but essentially everywhere else they lose. They have 2 bad losses to Virginia’s 0, the non-con SOS was damn near the worst in the country at 343rd, and they have fewer total Q1/2 wins. It’s very close, but I have Pitt the first team out of the dance, and with a potential shrinking of available bids anyway, I just don’t see that changing. I reserve the right to be wrong, but at this point I just don’t see them getting in. Thanks to all the chaos Pitt now has no chance as well, sorry Pitt fans.  (3/17)

Wake Forest: 20-13 (11-9) — Q1: (1-7) Q2: (8-5) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (75) Q1(A): (1-2)

Wake is all but dead after the loss to Pitt. There is a chance we’re all shocked on Selection Sunday, but at this point they are very far out of it. (3/15)

---

–Big Ten–

Locks:

                 

Last 4 In:

Michigan St:  19-14 (10-10) — Q1: (3-9) Q2: (6-5) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (22) Q1(A): (2-6) 

Sparty was unable to take down Purdue yesterday afternoon and now will simply have to wait until Sunday to see their fate. I think they’ve done enough to be in the field, as do most, but we’ll want to see just how many bid-stealers we have out there before we lock them up. I still have them in my Last 4 Byes, and with the loss to Purdue they fell to 9-14 in Q1/2, not a great winning %. The committee does stress SOS though, and that’s what they’ll ride along with the 2 elite wins over Illinois/Baylor. If it was a different year they may be out, just look at last season as Oklahoma St missed the tourney at 10-14 in Q1/2. This year, they look like a probable 10 seed barring some crazy events in the AAC/Pac 12. Well, the madness we feared started, and now Sparty fans will have an anxious Selection Sunday after all. I have them playing in Dayton, but it’s definitely way closer than we thought it would be just a mere 24 hours ago. The big wins and SOS should carry them through, but the mass of losses compared to some teams just behind them could leave them as a surprise casualty of the bid-stealers if the committee differs from me.  (3/17)

Dead:

Indiana: 19-14 (10-10) — Q1: (3-9) Q2: (6-4) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (24) Q1(A): (0-7)

The Hoosier are dead, NIT bound most likely. However, the Xavier Johnson injury is about the only hope they have, as maybe the committee will give them some credit for the 1-5 stretch without him in mid-February. Highly unlikely, but maybe. (3/16)

Ohio St: 19-13 (9-11) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (3-5) Q3: (9-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (66) Q1(A): (3-2)

The dream is dead, but what a ride it was for the Buckeyes. From fired HC to almost tourney team with a young interim HC. They went down to the wire with Illinois but just couldn’t pull it off. What a story arc. (3/16)

---

–Big 12–

Locks: 

                

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering: N/A

---

–Big East–

Locks:

      

Last 4 In:

Seton Hall: 20-12 (13-7) — Q1: (5-8) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (32) Q1(A): (3-6)

Seton Hall fell to St. John’s to keep things interesting in the lead up to Selection Sunday, and while I still feel they should be in, the bubble continues to narrow and dropping to 9-11 in Q1/2 puts them squarely in the conversation. Their argument is as follows – Home wins over UConn/Marquette plus road wins over St. John’s/Providence/Butler. Their proclivity for winning away from home is going to help them, as well as being one of just 3 teams to get the best of UConn. The SOS is very strong and the 3 Q1(A) wins is a separator for me. I have them in Dayton, but that means with a few more surprise bid-stealers we could see them fall out. Nervy couple of days for Seton Hall faithful. Thanks to all the bid-stealers I now have Seton Hall as the last team in the field, but my confidence level remains low. They have great wins over UConn, Marquette and then 3 Q1 road wins over St. John’s, Providence and Butler. The committee claims to favor road wins, and that combined with knocking off 2 top-15 teams is what I have carrying them in right now, especially with just the 1 bad loss compared to a Texas A&M who has 5 such losses. It’s close, but to me they should squeak in.  (3/17)

First 4 Out:

St. John’s: 20-13 (11-9) — Q1: (4-10) Q2: (6-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (31) Q1(A): (2-7)

The Johnie’s win streak was snapped at 6 games as they lost to UConn yesterday. Ultimately, I think the late season rally was enough to get it done, as they are now 10-12 in Q1/2, which is a large number of wins. As we’ve mentioned with all of these teams, it can change quickly if the available bids start to dwindle, so we’re going to keep monitoring this situation, as they may end up bounced by a bid-stealer as the weekend progresses. Stay tuned. St. John’s is now right on the cusp, as I see no scenario they are anywhere other than the Last team in or one of the first couple out. Right now I have them as the first team out of the field, but man it’s close between them and Seton Hall. I give the edge to Hall due to the overall wins against high level competition, as the Johnie’s have a win over Creighton and then it falls off a cliff, with just Nova 2x and Utah as the next best wins. Not good enough this year.  (3/17)

Providence: 21-13 (10-10) — Q1: (6-9) Q2: (3-4) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (11-0) SOS: (32) Q1(A): (3-6)

The ride for Providence ends as they lost to a Tyler Kolek-less Marquette after beating Creighton in the previous round. When you look at the overall win total and some of the big time wins it reminds you a lot of a team like Oklahoma St last year. I keep going back to this example because they were 10-14 in Q1/2 a year ago, and missed out on the dance behind a team like Pitt who had fewer good wins but also fewer losses overall. It’s a very good comparison to Virginia this year, who clearly doesn’t have the win totals against elite teams that Providence does, but the committee seems to favor teams with a bit cleaner records, in spite of their insistence that SOS matters. I disagree with it, and if I was seeding the field myself would put Providence in, but based on what I’ve seen through the years I don’t think they’re going to get in. I will be pleasantly surprised if they do, but with the available spots potentially shrinking even more, I just don’t see it. As an update, the Friars are further out of it than before, unfortunately thanks to all the bid-stealing. (3/17)

Dead:

Villanova: 18-15 (10-10) — Q1: (4-11) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (2-3) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (24) Q1(A): (2-6)

Villanova joined Wake Forest/Indiana in the essentially dead but we could be surprised category after losing to a Tyler Kolek-less Marquette last night. It took overtime but this incredibly talented Nova team now looks destined for the NIT. (3/15)

---

–Pac-12–

Locks: 

      

Last 4 In:

Colorado: 24-10 (13-7) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (6-5) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (83) Q1(A): (0-3)

Thanks to the loss last night the Buffs not only failed to secure a bid themselves they also shrunk the bubble by a spot as Oregon earned their way in. I still have them in the dance, heading to Dayton but it will be a nervy Selection Sunday for Colorado fans. I wouldn’t expect them to be any better than the Last 4 in, and given I have them 2nd from the cut line I also wouldn’t be shocked if they miss the field entirely. The negative for their resumé is the Q1 wins aren’t all that impressive, but we’ve seen that be acceptable in the past with the committee. I would favor a team like St. John’s who has a little better win profile, but I’m merely predicting what I think they’ll do, and with the strong metrics to go along with the 10-10 Q1/2 record and no bad losses, I think you can certainly make the argument.  (3/17)

Dead:

Utah: 19-14 (9-11) — Q1: (4-9) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (6-2) Q4: (5-0) SOS (47) Q1(A): (2-4)

Utah, thanks to the loss last night to Colorado, joins the likes of Villanova/Wake Forest, dead but we could be surprised on Sunday. I expect them in the NIT, and feel pretty strong about it. What a fall from as high as a 6 seed a month and a half ago. (3/15)

---

–SEC–

Locks: 

          

Last 4 In:

Mississippi St: 21-13 (8-10) — Q1: (4-9) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (6-1) SOS (37) Q1(A): (3-5)

Mississippi St lost a close battle with Auburn but thanks to the shrinking of the bubble is now likely headed to Dayton. They don’t have a great overall win total at just 8-12 in Q1/2, but those wins in Q1(A) are massive as 3 of them are top-10 NET wins, very strong and should be enough to carry them into the field. It’s certainly going to be close though.  (3/17)

First 4 Out:

Texas A&M: 20-14 (9-9) — Q1: (7-7) Q2: (6-3) Q3: (2-4) Q4: (5-0) SOS (18) Q1(A): (3-4)

A&M’s SEC tourney run came to an end yesterday in an unlikely shootout with Florida. The Aggies have an unbelievable win profile, with wins over Iowa St, Tennessee and Kentucky at the top, plus 4 more Q1 wins including another over Kentucky and Florida as well. The issue is those 4 Q3 losses, and for me that has to mean something. The only scenario in which they missed the tourney is exactly what played out over the last 48 hours, as the bubble shrank by 5 bids and we’re down to really a final 4 bids to Dayton. I have them in the First 4 Out, but I’m sure there will be a group of people who have them in thanks to those wins, and I’d understand it.  (3/17)

---

–Mountain West–

Locks:

             

On the Right Track: N/A

---

–American–

Locks:

 

 

On the Right Track: N/A

---

–WCC–

Locks:

   

On the Right Track: N/A

---

–Others–

Locks: 

 

 

On the Right Track: N/A

DEAD:

Indiana St: 27-6 (17-3) — Q1: (1-4) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (9-0) Q4: (11-1) SOS (129) Q1(A): (0-2)

The Sycamores are now the talk of college basketball, but not for the reason they had hoped for with just 6 days until Selection Sunday. As I’m sure everyone knows they fell to Drake in the Valley championship game and now require at at-large bid to get in the tournament. The question everyone is clamoring for an answer to is will the committee let them in? My gut tells me no, they won’t make it. I want to be clear before I explain why I think this, I absolutely want the Sycamores to be in the field, they’re fun and genuinely a good team in my opinion, as the metrics would suggest. The issue is simply the resumé is not good enough. They have just 1 Q1 win, and are just 5-5 in Q1/2 with a Q4 loss, and as you would expect the SOS is very weak. Honestly it may come down to the non-conference SOS even more specifically, as they just didn’t play many tough games, with just Alabama and Michigan St on the schedule and they lost both by double digits. They had 7 games against 200+ ranked teams in the NET in the non-conference, just not good enough. Teams like Gonzaga/Houston/FAU in the past have had to adjust their non-conference scheduling to front-load the schedule for this exact scenario, and Indiana St just failed to do so. Maybe the success was unexpected, but they’ll likely just be another example that these mid-majors need to schedule tougher in order to get love from the committee. I hope I’m wrong, but I have them out right now and I don’t expect anything to happen that would change that as we go forward. After all of the bid-stealing the dream is truly dead for Indiana St, they’re just not going to get in over teams like Seton Hall, Mississippi St or Michigan St. Too many wins over elite teams by those teams that the Sycamores jsut don’t have.  (3/17)