Updated 3/16 – Date following team is date of last edit.

It’s finally Selection Sunday and man what a conversation we have around the final few spots. We are essentially looking at 2 spots available with 5 teams fighting for them. You have IU-Texas-UNC-Xavier-Boise St all in the fight for the final 2 spots in Dayton, with teams like San Diego St, Utah St and Vandy being tossed around for the other 2 but all pretty solidly in the field either way. I give my reasoning for where I think each team winds up, but let me tell you I could see any combination of those 5 being selected for those final 2 spots, as the committee can be difficult to project, especially when it’s this close. I’m leaning IU/Texas due to their volume of Q1 wins and Q1 win %, but Boise would be right there if those are the top-2 category considerations. That can be very shaken up if Memphis and/or VCU loses today though, as that would make the American a 2-bid league and then throw VCU into the mix for the last spot. So, if you’re here as a fan as one of those 5 teams you have to root for Memphis and VCU today.

For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (NonCon SOS), Q1(A) wins and NET rank. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we are sitting at 56 teams on this weeks watch, but many of those will be missing out. Alright let’s get it. Check out my current bracket projection here. 

Jump to Conference:

Bubble Breakdown:

Total Bids: 68

1-bid conferences: 23

Locks: 35

Bids Left: 10

Bubble: 18

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–ACC–

Locks: 

First 4 Out:

UNC: 22-13 (13-7) — Q1: (1-12) Q2: (8-0) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 42 (5) Q1(A): (0-10) NET (36)

The lane violation hear round the college hoops world…unbelievable ending to last night’s Duke/UNC game as the Tar Heels stormed back from down 24 to have a FT to tie the game in the dying moments and had it waived off on a lane violation. That loss likely ended their at-large hopes, although there is still a contingent out there who believe they have a chance. I find it hard to believe a team with a 1-12 record in Q1 is going to be given an at-large, it would certainly be unprecedented. The metrics are really their only argument, as they have just 1 win against the projected field. I have IU/Texas ahead of them due to that number, you can’t be 1-11 against the field and beat out teams who have 4+ wins against the field. It would be a crime against humanity to see UNC in the dance at this point, especially with the Mountain West stealing a bid and shrinking things up. (3/15)

Next 4 Out:

Wake Forest: 21-11 (13-7) — Q1: (2-8) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (8-2) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 58 (52) Q1(A): (0-6) NET: (69)

Wake is dead after their loss to UNC today. They were in a great spot until they lost a trio of games to Florida St/NC State/Virginia, all outside of Q1 down the stretch. This was just the final nail in the coffin for a team who probably had the talent to be a tourney team but just fell apart in February/March. (3/13)

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–Big Ten–

Locks:

Last 4 In: 

Indiana:  19-13 (10-10) — Q1: (4-13) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 32 (159) Q1(A): (3-6) NET (52)

Well the doomsday scenario for the Hoosiers is playing out as all the teams around them seem to be cashing in on their opportunities and they lost to Oregon. That loss leaves them just 4-13 in Q1, and while they are perfect outside of Q1 they are losing the Q1 win % argument, losing the metrics argument and their best non-con win was Providence (99th). Their argument is essentially, hey remember when we beat Michigan St and Purdue? While it doesn’t sound like a whole lot it actually might be enough this year, with a teams like Xavier/UNC having just 1 Q1 win. In my opinion, they are ahead of UNC due to the 4 Q1 wins and 0 losses outside of Q1, better than the Tar Heels, and ahead of Xavier who has just the 1 Q1 win also. Those 3 are fighting over that last spot or 2, so it may come down to committee preference. Their main issue, and what I would point to if they don’t get in, are the metrics, as they average about 50th in predictive metrics, behind UNC/Xavier/Texas. I still would favor the Hoosiers and their 4 Q1 wins, but it is insanely close and all could be shaken up if Memphis and/or VCU lose today. (3/16)

Next 4 Out: N/A

Ohio St:  17-15 (9-11) — Q1: (6-11) Q2: (3-4) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 18 (39) Q1(A): (3-7) NET (40)

With the loss yesterday to Iowa the Buckeye’s are likely dead when it comes to an at-large bid. To The Crown they go, although there may still be some people who argue they should be in. I won’t be one of them though, as if you can’t beat a bad Iowa team when your life is on the line I just don’t think you belong in the dance. They do have some really good wins on the resumé but the losses are just too much to make up for, I mean they’re just 3-4 in Q2, is that really better than a UNC that’s 7-0? I do get the Q1 wins are the golden measurement, but at some point you can’t play to the level of your competition so much that you are losing to 5 teams not projected in the tourney.(3/13)

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–Big 12–

Locks: 

Last 6 Byes:

Baylor: 18-14 (10-10) — Q1: (5-12) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 7 (12) Q1(A): (1-11) NET (30)

Baylor should be pretty safe unless absolute pandemonium breaks out and the committee sees things a little differently than me. Ultimately I think the strong metrics, strong SOS and 5 Q1 wins will keep them well within the field, the loss to Texas Tech dropped them to 1-11 in Q1(A) games. Their biggest plus is they are 17-3 outside of the elite games, including those 4 Q1 games that fall just outside, so they still have some big wins and do have 4 against the projected field so enough to feel like they will get in and avoid Dayton. (3/15)

W. Virginia: 19-13 (10-10) — Q1: (6-9) Q2: (4-4) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 19 (59) Q1(A): (4-7) NET (51)

While I don’t think the Mountaineers will miss the tourney, they did make things a lot more interesting with their loss to Colorado yesterday. The major separation between them and teams like Indiana/San Diego St is they have 4 wins over top-20 teams, with 3 of those being away from home. That is likely going to be enough to carry them through, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a little closer than we think as the predictive metrics are not great and neither are the result based. It’s really just those massive wins keeping them afloat. They are sitting on the 10 line pretty firmly, and there doesn’t look to be as much bid stealing as last year, so I think with their 6 Q1 wins they should feel pretty safe right now to be in and avoiding Dayton. (3/15)

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–Big East–

Locks:

First 4 Out:

Xavier: 21-11 (13-7) — Q1: (1-9) Q2: (8-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 57 (139) Q1(A): (1-4) NET (44)

Xavier battled hard, and at times looked like they’d beat Marquette, but ultimately couldn’t bring it home in the closing stages. Eye test tells me they deserve to be in, but that’s not how this thing works. They are just 1-9 in Q1, but do have some solid Q2 wins over tourney teams UConn/Creighton. Right now I have them the first team out, with Texas/IU being the last 2 in, but honestly I could see 100 people splitting evenly if polled on those 3 teams. It’s razor thin, so it’ll be a nervy couple of days as to have a chance you have to have all the conference tourney’s be won by teams projected in right now. With the Mountain West taking up another bid, it looks even more dire for the Musketeers, as it’s tough to argue them over Texas/IU in my opinion given the lack of big time wins. We’ll see if the committee agrees, or if the American conference can make it even more of a longshot with a Memphis upset. (3/15)

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–SEC–

Locks: 

Last 6 Byes:

Georgia: 20-12 (8-10) — Q1: (4-11) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 17 (231) Q1(A): (3-9) NET (33)

Georgia dropped their chance to make this easy as they lost to Oklahoma last night. That leaves them just 9-12 in Q1/2 as they likely drift back close to the Dayton group. They have just the 4 Q1 wins with the wins over Florida, Kentucky and St. John’s carrying them right now. I think that group of wins will ultimately be enough, and I have them on the 10 line with a possible 9 seed out there depending where you look. I don’t think there’s enough chaos that can happen at this point to bounce them but I don’t want to assume I have them exactly where the committee does, so we’re holding on tight but with a fair amount of confidence. (3/15)

Oklahoma: 20-13 (6-12) — Q1: (7-11) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 13 (152) Q1(A): (3-9) NET (44)

Oklahoma lost a tough one to Kentucky to end their SEC tourney but they did more than enough to secure their bid in my opinion. I don’t see how a team with 7 Q1 wins and as clean of a record outside of Q1 can miss the dance this year. There are just too many teams with worse resumé’s behind them. I actually have them above Georgia due to the volume of top wins but many folks have it swapped, so who knows specifically where they’d fall but I doubt it will be worse than a 10 seed, with a 9 very possible. Again, I’d like to lock but with how screwy the committee can get we’re going to hold off until we see it on Sunday. (3/14)

Arkansas: 20-13 (8-10) — Q1: (5-10) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 22 (179) Q1(A): (1-7) NET (39)

Arkansas lost to Ole Miss in dramatic fashion today, but thanks to losses by San Diego St/Xavier/Indiana they are solidly in at this point. I don’t think anyone out there has them out of the field, so it would take some major chaos to unfold with bid stealing for them not to get in at this point as they are most likely in the Last 4 Byes territory. Good for Cal and good for this team turning things around and grinding their way in. Things have gotten a little more testy with the Mountain West shakeup but I still have them ahead of the Dayton group, on the 10 seed line. I wouldn’t expect enough chaos to ensue to leave them out, but they’re below Oklahoma and Georgia per me, so it’s a little more nervy as we get through the homestretch. (3/15)

Vanderbilt: 20-12 (8-10) — Q1: (5-9) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 25 (328) Q1(A): (3-7) NET (47)

Well, the Commodores have made this interesting as we enter the homestretch, as the loss to Texas dropped them to just 9-12 in Q1/2, keeping them in the bubble conversations. I warned about their horrific non-con schedule that provided them with 0 notable wins being a problem, and I think now they’re being compared to these bubble teams it has caused them to drop quite a bit as they’ve lost 3 straight. Oklahoma and Arkansas simply have better resumé’s right now, and I’m not sure how many people are taking notice of that. That puts them up against the MW teams like Utah St/San Diego St fighting for the last bye to escape Dayton. Right now the big time wins over 5 projected tourney teams are keeping them in the bye territory, but they’re the last one right now with potential bid stealing to come from the American. I think they’re comfy but it wouldn’t shock me to see the committee put them in Dayton. (3/15)

Last 4 In:

Texas: 19-15 (6-12) — Q1: (7-10) Q2: (3-5) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 21 (286) Q1(A): (2-7) NET (39)

Well, Texas did enough to at least make this a very interesting conversation, even after a loss to Tennessee yesterday. Personally, I think the team with 7 Q1 wins is going to get the nod over the teams with just 1, especially given how many chances Xavier/UNC had. Those are the 3 battling it out right now in my opinion, although some have Indiana out of the field as well, so maybe call it a 4 horse race for the final 2 spots. Give me the teams who have proven they can beat tourney caliber teams more than just a one off. I get the Q2 record argument, but in my opinion the committee has overlooked bad losses in favor of big time wins in the past and I think they do so again with Texas/Indiana getting in. Of course that could change if the bubble shrinks even more Sunday so watch Memphis closely. (3/15)

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–Mountain West–

Locks:

On the Right Track:

Last 4 In:

Utah St: 25-7 (15-5) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (8-3) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (10-0) SOS: 83 (112) Q1(A): (1-0) NET (37)

Utah St. is now in a precarious position, although I do think they’ve done enough to be worthy of being in the field. Their loss to Colorado St late last night shrunk the bubble by a spot as either the Rams or Boise St are going to earn a bid they likely wouldn’t have gotten on their own. The Aggies are clinging to just 2 Q1 wins @ St. Mary’s/San Diego St. Those also happen to be their only wins against the field, and with 3 Q2 losses I’m surprised so many have them in a bye position. That group of wins is not strong, and while the record is inflated it’s tough to argue them over the SEC/Big 12 teams I have ahead of them right now. I think they’re in Dayton pretty firmly, and probably still ahead of IU/Texas but my money would be on either of those 2 in that First 4 game that’s for sure. (3/15)

San Diego St: 20-9 (14-6) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 63 (7) Q1(A): (1-2) NET (52)

The Aztecs just couldn’t make this one easy as the loss today to Boise St has likely destined them for Dayton. They will stay in the field on the back of a strong non-con showing, with wins over Creighton/Houston, but that last loss hurt a ton. They are 8-8 in Q1/2 with strong SOS numbers, so they’re in to me pretty easily as the top team in Dayton, as it would take 4 bid stealers to knock them out if I’m right. So far there’s only been 1, but I still have them in Dayton pretty safely, although you start getting into the metric arguments as they would be right there with IU as the worst predictives in the field if they make it. Xavier/UNC for example have 10+ average better, but ultimately I think the who you beat and where you beat them argument easily goes to the Aztecs so they should get in, but I’ve been wrong before. (3/15)

First 4 Out:

Boise St: 23-10 (14-6) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (10-1) SOS: 80 (118) Q1(A): (1-1) NET (44)

Boise lost in the title game which leaves them on the outside looking in to me. They do have a strong case to make, and maybe a stronger one than people would think with those wins over Clemson/St. Mary’s. The problem you see are the really bad losses, especially that Q4 loss but having 4 losses outside of Q1 is a clear negative these other teams don’t have. UNC has just 1, Xavier has 2 and IU has 0. They are right there don’t get me wrong, but ultimately I think the bad losses combined with the low volume of big time wins will leave them just on the outside. Also, we typically see metrics some into play when it’s this close, and among the group fighting for a spot Boise is the worst averaging a 50th ranking in predictive metrics. (3/16)

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–WCC–

Locks:

On the Right Track:

Teetering: N/A

Outside Looking In: N/A

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–Others–

Locks:

On the Right Track:

Teetering:

Next 4 Out:

VCU: 26-7 (15-3) — Q1: (2-1) Q2: (5-4) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (13-1) SOS: 133 (278) Q1(A): (0-0) NET (33)

VCU has made it to the A-10 title game, which has made it very interesting if they were to lose. I would say they would be out and I’ll make my case for why, but there is a contingent out there who would have them in and make the A-10 a bid stealer. Now, let’s assume they lose today, that would make them 5-5 in Q2 and still leave them with just 1 win over a tourney team, Colorado St which has aged a little better with their late season run. Their entire argument would be metrics, which do look favorable with their 3 metric average being 30.66. We would be comparing them to IU/Texas/UNC/Xavier depending on who the committee has given the last 2 spots. All of those teams have at least 1 better win than VCU can offer up, with UNC having the worst case on wins. Texas, for example has beaten 7 tourney teams, with IU having just 2 but also 0 losses outside of Q1 to VCU’s 6 in this scenario. To me, if all you have over a team is predictive metrics, the committee is not going to put you in. If it’s razor thin the metrics can tip the scale, but it’s not close to me among that group fighting for the last spot, so I think a loss to George Mason today for VCU will leave them out of the field. (3/16)

UC Irvine: 27-6 (17-3) — Q1: (1-1) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (12-3) Q4: (11-0) SOS: 155 (213) Q1(A): (1-0) NET (62)

UC Irvine losing in the Big West title game effectively means the two bid Big West dream is dead, as UC San Diego had a much better case than Irvine can offer up. They basically have 1 really solid win, @ UCSD. Their next best win is @ Northern Iowa, so essentially their entire case would be eye test, and you’d at least like to have predictive metrics on your side when you make that argument right? Well their average of the 3 metrics the committee will see is 80.33. There is just no way to rationalize them getting in at this point. (3/16)