It is finally the day we have all been waiting for, Selection Sunday – meaning before I go to sleep tonight I will have a bracket to digest. All the projections will be behind us, but what we’re here to do is officially posit a guess at what the committee might do and provide some context for why you see what you see tonight on CBS as they reveal the bracket. There are a couple major pivot points that the committee will have to decide on, with the biggest being Miami OH. I continue to project they are sent to Dayton, but that is more on selling a story to the public and packing Dayton than it is them having an actual argument. The committee will likely point to WAB to justify it, and with that we will have to use that as we focus on the final spots which are coming down to a trio of SEC teams, potentially VCU if they lose today and SMU. I break down the case for each below, but that is essentially what we’re down to. 2 spots for Miami OH/3 SEC teams and then VCU if they lose and maybe SDSU but I think they’re out of it.

Bubble Breakdown:

Last 4 Byes: Texas A&M – St. Louis – NC State – Mizzou

Last 4 In: Santa Clara – SMU – Texas – Miami OH

First 4 Out: Oklahoma – Auburn – SDSU – Oklahoma St

Next 5 Out:  Indiana – Cincy – VA Tech – New Mexico – Seton Hall

Overall:

Total Bids: 68

Conference Champs: 31

Other Locks: 27

Bids Left: 10

Bubble teams: 19

Below is the Quadrant system to help contextualize what I’m referring to when discussing wins. Each conference has a table with the team’s resumé to reference at the beginning, for your own comparison, including the locks. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 59 teams on the Watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 3/12. Check out my current bracket projection here. 

Quadrant 1 (Q1)	Quadrant 2 (Q2)	Quadrant 3 (Q3)	Quadrant 4 (Q4)
Home (1-30)	Home (31-75)	Home (76-160)	Home (161-364)
Neutral (1-50)	Neutral (51-100)	Neutral (101-200)	Neutral (201-364)
Away (1-75)	Away (76-135)	Away (136-240)	Away (241-364)

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–ACC–

Locks: 

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering: 

NC State (35) – Proj. 10 seed (Last 4 Byes)

It was a valiant effort but ultimately yesterday’s loss to Virginia means it’s simply a waiting game now for the Wolfpack. I still think that they are pretty safe unless we get maximum chaos from bid stealers, as I believe they are ahead pretty safely of at least the final 3-4 spots. They easily could end up in Dayton, especially if the context of them finishing the season just 2-7 comes into play at all in seeding. They made a lot of hay early in the season, not so much of late, but the wins over Clemson/SMU away from home and then UNC/VCU give them 4 over tourney teams and overall 5 in Q1. Put the big wins together with top-40 predictive metrics and a WAB of 43 in this year’s bubble they make for a pretty obvious selection at this point. All Wolfpack eyes will be on the Mountain West, A-10, and apparently the SEC now for bid thieves. (3/13)

SMU (37) – Proj. Last 4 In

SMU was unable to really make this a sure thing by beating Louisville yesterday, but they went blow for blow with a 6 seed and passed the eye test. I think they are confidently in right now but are in a position where a few bid stealers could send them to the NIT. They have just the 9-13 record in Q1/2 which isn’t great, but the top end wins over Louisville/UNC/A&M give them 3 solid wins over tourney teams. They are clean in Q3/4 which helps as well and metrics wise they are in the low-mid 40’s which is good enough to get in, but certainly not great. That’s their case right now, and I have it being good enough to be in Dayton and ahead of Texas/VCU/Auburn/Oklahoma who are who are all vying for the last spots in Dayton. That is certainly debatable, but they did themselves a favor in my opinion by announcing BJ Edwards was going to play in the tourney, as they finished just 1-4 with him sidelined to put them in this position. That was a galaxy brain move that should be at least discussed by the committee and could be what keeps them from being bumped out. I think they have more to stand on than just that, but it prevents that injury from being the excuse that causes them to miss. Dayton feels like the right place for this resume. (3/15)

Virginia Tech (57) – Proj. Next 4 Out

Once again VA Tech failed to pull out a win in the closing seconds, adding to what is now a handful of games they lost either on buzzer beaters or missed shots of their own. Ben Hammond had a runner to win and they missed a follow up tip in as well that sent the game vs Wake Forest to OT yesterday. They got punked in OT which sent them almost certainly to the NIT. They could not afford a loss there and they just couldn’t get stops, and now they’re just 8-13 in Q1/2. On top of the poor record there the metrics offer zero help, as they’re down to mid-50’s in both. They do have the 2 high quality wins over UVA and Clemson, but at this point those aren’t able to make up for all of the other factors being so lackluster. Needless to say, their bubble has burst all thanks to being unable to take down Wake Forest. (3/11)

Outside Looking In:

Florida St (67) – Proj…bubble burst

Robert McCray had a 3 point shot clank off the rim as time expired that would have sent the Noles to Dayton potentially as they had a chance to take down the mighty Duke Blue Devils yesterday. Despite a valiant effort their late season run appears to have come up just short, as they have fallen to just 9-14 in Q1/2. They may have looked like a tourney team late in the season, especially going blow for blow with Duke, but at this point we are forced to take the entirety of their season into account, and that 7-11 start was just too deep a hole for them to dig out of. They will be happy with how they finished, but that shot selection and result will likely haunt them for some time. Great run at it but ultimately they come up just shy. (3/13)

Cal (68) – Proj...bubble burst

Cal had a chance to stay in the conversation yesterday and got their teeth kicked in by fellow bubble team Florida St. That is essentially all she wrote for the Cal Bears and their hopes at an at-large, as the resumé metrics are poor (mid-50’s), the predictive metrics are worse (70’s) and they’re 2-4 in Q2 if you still had any doubts. Yes they had a couple of good nights where they picked up some good wins (Miami, UNC, UCLA), but this about having a complete season and they just were unable to do that. The NIT needs teams too. (3/12)

Stanford (62) – Proj...bubble burst

As quickly as Stanford rushed in to join the bubble picture again they found themselves exiting, as they had to have that one yesterday vs Pitt and couldn’t get it done. They gave up 20 offensive rebounds, with the final one being the dagger as the smallest guy on the floor got his own miss for a put back game winner that will send Stanford to the NIT (or maybe the crown idk). They had been trying to overcome the 3 early season losses in Q3, but they just added a 4th which sent their metrics plummeting and gives them very little argument to say they’ve vastly improved from the team that dropped 3 of those stinkers. They have the high quality wins, but being 4-4 in Q3 is far too disastrous, even in this year’s bubble. We can essentially forget about Stanford from this point forward – bubble burst. (3/11)

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–Big Ten–

Locks:

On the Right Track:

Teetering: 

Indiana (41) – Proj. Next 4 Out

Disclaimer I am a Purdue fan, but objectively speaking yesterday had to feel like one of the more pathetic IU performances we’ve seen in a long time. The Hoosiers had a chance to try and firm up their spot in the dance as bubble teams were falling left and right. They got to play Northwestern, a feisty team but one that entered the day 4 games below .500. It was an absolute shellacking as the Hoosiers trailed by as much as 18 points and got outscored 38-24 in the 2nd half. All of that was with Northwestern’s starting C Arrinten Page not playing. I can’t remember a more disappointing loss, with so much at stake and to lose to a team like Northwestern, IU fans have to be shining the pitchforks. I’d imagine DeVries gets a little rope since it’s only year 1, but pressure is certainly on next year now. I digress, the Hoosiers are not going to be a tourney team, that is the moral of the story, as I can’t see them backing their way in now that they are just 4-4 in Q2 and really only have the Purdue/Wisconsin wins keeping them barely in the conversation. Ultimately, I think that’s all she wrote for this year’s Indiana Hoosiers. (3/12)

Outside Looking In:

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–Big 12–

Locks: 

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering: N/A

Outside Looking In:

Cincinnati (48) – Proj. Next 4 Out

Everything seemed to be lining up so well for the Bearcats to sneak their way into the tourney, with bubble teams losing virtually every game, all the way to Cincy’s 8 point lead with just minutes to play. They turned into a pumpkin, turning the ball over left and right, allowing UCF to charge back and send the game to OT. Even then they had a chance to take the lead in the dying seconds and Jalen Celestine fired an ill-advised 3 only down 1 and missed well short. Just like that, their hopes at an at-large likely came to an end. Even if you discount the bad loss to EMU without 3 starters, they are still just 7-14 in Q1/2. You can’t win just a third of your meaningful games and get into the dance, unless maybe you’re Auburn but that’s a different discussion. Either way the resumé-based metrics are just too poor to be considered, even if you gave them a bump by removing that Q4 loss, it’s just not enough to crack the top-50. They had to have that game against UCF and they just couldn’t get it done. Ultimately, they still look like a tourney team to the eye test, but unfortunately it’s been too little too late. (3/12)

Oklahoma St (73) – Proj. Next 4 Out

The Cowboys fought hard but ultimately couldn’t get enough stops to beat TCU and give themselves a real shot at getting in. As of now they’re just on the outside, and while most teams around them also lost there are still a few teams alive and they are pretty solidly behind the group that’s in Dayton right now. I don’t really see a world they get at this point, but they do have the wins over BYU/UCF/A&M that at least allow them to remain in the conversation. If it was over now I’d say they’re First 4 Out, but I imagine they only slide farther out of it between now and Selection Sunday. Unfortunate but they had to beat TCU and just couldn’t get it done. (3/12)

West Virginia (59) – Proj...bubble burst

West Virginia is going to remain in this conversation due to the absurdity of their resumé, but let me be clear, after the loss to BYU yesterday they have no shot. The crazy part is they are 5-3 in Q1 (B) games, but just 2-4 in Q2, a mind bending fact, and something that will haunt this team as if they could have just beaten say K-State and Xavier we would be talking about them as a legit tourney team. They have wins over Kansas/BYU and a sweep of both Cincy/UCF. They just couldn’t keep up that level of play against lesser competition and it ultimately cost them a trip to the dance. Their metrics are very bad, but flip those bad losses to wins and we’re in a different story. In a year where teams seemingly can’t get big wins, the Mountaineers were the outlier as a team that could beat anyone but also lose to anyone. That propensity to play to the level of their competition will send them to the NIT. (3/12)

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–Big East–

Locks:

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering: N/A

Outside Looking In:

Seton Hall (54) – Proj...bubble burst

And that is that for Seton Hall, as they had a chance on Friday evening to take down St. John’s and really make a charge at an at-large. Instead, they lost by 10 points and will finish the season just 1-6 in Q1. Even in a down year in the bubble, having just 1 Q1 win to go along with 6 losses outside of Q1 is just not going to be close to cutting it. A win vs St. John’s could have gotten them close, maybe on the right side, but not having that signature win to hang your hat on gives them no shot. It was a battle to the end but ultimately they are who we thought they were, a grind you down NIT team. Until next year. (3/13)

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–SEC–

Locks: 

On the Right Track:

Teetering:

Texas A&M (43) – Proj. 10 seed (Last 4 Byes)

Texas A&M had a chance to make this an open and shut case yesterday, but not only did they fail to do that they also gave another team life to get into the dance in Oklahoma. The Sooners boat raced A&M and now the Aggies will have to wait until Selection Sunday with a nervy couple of days upcoming. I do think they will get in, but if there are a couple of bids that get stolen they could end up in Dayton. They have the wins over Georgia/UK/Texas, but ultimately those aren’t as strong as some of the other SEC teams. They do have solid predictive metrics that average to the high 30’s, so that on top of the 40th WAB ranking should keep them on the right side. However, it could be closer to Dayton with even the chance to be in Dayton with some bid stealing. It’s essentially in but a worse case scenario of chaos leaving them right in the crosshairs. Have to be rooting for Utah St, St. Louis and the top-2 in the Big East to win their conference tourney’s. (3/13)

Missouri (58) – Proj. 10 seed (Last 4 Byes)

Mizzou missed a golden opportunity to lock this thing up yesterday as they fell to Kentucky in the SEC tourney, meaning they end the season on a 3 game losing streak that seed them tumbling down the seed list. Ultimately I think their wins over Florida//Vandy/Tennessee at home and UK/A&M away from home are just far too strong for them to fall out. Their metrics are probably high 40’s after this loss, and the results-based would average in the 40’s as well going into . I think the caliber of wins will trump any poor metrics, as the committee tends to lead with that when things are close. In a year where we’re looking at teams with 1 or 2 good wins, having 5 over other tournament teams is just way too strong to miss out in my opinion. But again, the matrix had them a 10 seed before the Arkansas loss, so I’m not the final decision maker here. Beat UK and it’s a wrap, but lose and Mizzou fans will hear enough noise to be nervous on Selection Sunday. (3/13)

Texas (42) – Proj. Last 4 In

I have gone back and forth on this, but after far too much deliberation I have landed on the Texas Longhorns being in the field. If I remove any recency bias and just look at what they have done over the totality of the season, they have accumulated a group of wins that you cannot ignore. They are just 17-14, but it’s hard to look past the wins over Bama/Vandy/NC State/Georgia/A&M. We are essentially down to Oklahoma/Texas/Auburn/SDSU for the final spot if you believe Miami OH is getting in regardless. The case for Texas today would be having 2 Q1(A) wins which only Auburn can match, as well as the 6 Q1 wins overall. That on top of being better in 5 of the 6 computer metrics than OU and 4 of the 6 vs SDSU, they are likely going to have the edge, but man we are splitting the smallest hairs I can remember in a long time. I give the edge to Texas but we also can’t completely discount Auburn in this as they also have a win @ Florida and better metrics, so if we are going to give the edge to Texas vs OU does that mean Auburn jumps them all on the back of a few big wins and computer metrics? I have no idea to be honest, and who knows maybe the committee will surprise us with a 3 bid A-10 and leave all of these SEC teams out, but I highly doubt that. What I do know is when all else fails, go with the team that most consistently beats out Q1 opponents, and 6 out of 15 is a better win % than either Auburn or Oklahoma. That may be the deciding factor, but ultimately I think you can make a compelling case for either of those 3. And hey, maybe they give a total middle finger to the little guy and 2 of the 3 get in with Miami OH getting the shaft. It’s a day that could be full of surprises, but ultimately, this is my final landing spot. (3/15)

Auburn (39) – Proj. First 4 Out

The Tigers were unable to pull off an upset of Tennessee to really push themselves into the field as they now will have to settle for pleading their case to the media. As far as the actual case by the number and not people’s feelings, Auburn has a legit argument to make. The argument against them being in is it would be unprecedented, but we are also assuming the committee makes an unprecedented and including Miami OH, so why not a 17-16 Auburn team? They have better metrics in 5 of 6 categories over both Texas and OU, so all of a sudden if you ignore the fact they’re only 1 game above .500, our supposed objective computer metrics like them more. So in an effort to remove bias from any storylines, then I would say objectively Auburn should be in over OU and Texas, however I do think you can justify Texas due to the 6 Q1 wins over Auburn only nabbing 4 in even a larger sample. So, my final landing spot is just to reward Texas for taking a little bit better advantage of their high leverage chances, but I certainly would understand Auburn’s inclusion. In fact, if it weren’t for this Miami OH conundrum then we would likely just have them both in Dayton. There still is that chance that the committee looks at St. Louis/Santa Clara getting in as the little guy getting representation and put these SEC teams in over Miami OH. I am not predicting it but I’m certainly saying there’s a chance, and who knows maybe they just pit Auburn with Miami OH to give us all what we want. I am not predicting it, but there are a host of ways I think this could go and it would be perfectly rational. I’m comfortable with leaving Auburn out, but would understand their inclusion. (3/15)

Oklahoma (47) – Proj. First 4 Out

Oklahoma went down swinging, taking Arkansas to the wire last night, but ultimately falling short thanks to the heroics of Darius Acuff. I’m not sure where that leaves us with the Sooners, as there are several factors we are going to have to discuss here. From the rip, they are 4-9 in Q1 which is pretty strong for this year, but the weak 6-5 Q2 record is the concerning part, and likely what is dragging their metrics down to concerning levels. They are low 40’s in terms of predictive averages, but just 49th in WAB and average out to 53rd in resumé metrics thanks to a horrific 68 in KPI. Might be time to take that metric out back. Anyway, we are now down to essentially Oklahoma/Texas/San Diego St/Miami OH for the final 2 spots. I land in the camp that Miami OH will be included and go to Dayton because of the story and eyeballs, plus the committee can point to WAB as justification. So, that leaves us with 3 for the final spot, maybe 4 if you include Auburn. I have gone back and forth a million times, because these team sheets are so close. The sell for Oklahoma is they are the one actually playing like a tournament team right now, and to me that context should matter. However, I do think if I take my own bias out of it, the committee is supposed to consider the entire season and weigh every game evenly. If they do that, Oklahoma does have fewer Q1 wins 4 – 6 and Q1(A) wins 1 – 2 than Texas. You also have the metrics which Texas slightly edges Oklahoma out in 5 of those 6, although it’s very slim. Ultimately I have landed that OU is my first team out because of those factors, but if they are in I’ll be kicking myself because when I woke up yesterday that was my instinct. But I just see the facts of the slim lead for Texas outweighing any context argument. It is safer for the committee to rely on metrics and just scramble the games and consider them all evenly, without recency bias. So for that reason, OU is out and Texas is in. (3/15)

Outside Looking In: N/A

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–Mountain West–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

San Diego St (45) – Proj. First 4 Out

Unfortunately for the Mountain West, in its last year as a the conference that we know and love, their effort at at least getting multiple bids has come up short. I do not think the Aztecs have enough after losing to Utah St last night to get themselves in. They are behind the SEC teams for me, who have all picked up better wins and played much tougher schedules. Computer metrics wise they are also behind those teams, so they really don’t have much of a case against those teams. The argument you actually would have to make would be over Miami OH. I’m saying there’s a non-zero chance you could stack these teams up and say well wait a second, by the criteria used in the past the Aztecs have had a better season. They have better top wins overall, are better in 4 of the 6 computer metrics than the Redhawks. Unfortunately the one metric Dan Gavitt has mentioned as being relied upon for selection is WAB, and Miami does edge out the Aztecs there. I am going to keep SDSU just on the outside, as I can’t justify them over the group of SEC teams and believe Miami OH will be included due to the story and what their inclusion would do for Dayton. That means there is no room for SDSU unfortunately. (3/15)

Outside Looking In: N/A

New Mexico (46) – Proj...bubble burst

I told you last night’s game with San Diego St was a loser leaves town game, and unfortunately for the Lobos they are officially gone. Their metrics plummeted into the 50’s on average and they just don’t have enough meat on the resumé to have a chance, as they didn’t even get a win over Utah St like the Aztecs did. They did have the non-con wins over Santa Clara and VCU, but ultimately those aren’t going to be enough to make up for the 2 Q3 losses and overall just 2-7 record in Q1. Valiant effort but ultimately they are NIT bound. (3/14)

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–WCC–

Locks:

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

Santa Clara (40) – Proj. Last 4 In

Alright we now know the final look of the Santa Clara resumé after the WCC champ game loss to Gonzaga last night. They fought valiantly but the Zags surged the final 8-10 minutes and pulled away after the Broncos lead for much of the game. I would imagine if you’re a committee member you walk away impressed by both teams, giving Santa Clara their flowers for hanging tough with the Zags but also recognizing that’s a legit 3/4 seed right now who just has another gear they can get to. So, they pass the eye test is what I’m saying, and with the predictive metrics in the high 30’s and results based in exactly the same spot I would confidently say they’re in as of today. I have had to slide the Broncos back to Dayton, but those wins over St. Mary’s paired with the solid metric averages should keep them in the field. The A-10 having a bid stealer shifted them back for me, but I truly don’t see them being left out at this point, as they should have their ticket punched for the first time in 30 years. What a season for the Broncos and a real shot now at nabbing a tourney win as well if they are in Dayton and can catch SMU or Texas who have been struggling. (3/15)

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–A-10–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

St. Louis (27) – Proj. 10 seed (Last 4 Byes)

St. Louis was able to avoid an upset on Friday but were unsuccesful in doing so yesterday as they lost in dramatic fashion to Dayton in one of the wilder final sequences I can remember. They now have to wait and see, and while I still strongly believe they are in the field, the 4-4 finish to the season makes this way harrier than I ever thought possible. They have dipped down to 42nd in WAB, and while that is still good enough to likely be in the field, they easily could be in Dayton, especially with predictives right around 40 as well. Most probably already have them locked, but a team that is still alive to play in Dayton is certainly not a team I’m willing to issue a lock on. Right now I have them ahead of Santa Clara for that last spot in Dayton because they beat them head to head, but the Broncos have 2 wins over St. Mary’s that are better than St. Louis has in terms of top wins, plus a better WAB and 2 of 3 predictive rankings. There is certainly a world where St. Louis is playing in Dayton, especially having 0 Q1(A) wins and overall having their best win be Santa Clara or a fringe tourney team in VCU. They are definitely in, but where they end up could be lower than people are expecting. (3/15)

Teetering:

VCU (44) – Proj. First 4 Out

Well we are faced with either VCU punching their ticket themselves or on their knees begging the committee for a 3-bid A-10. Where I have landed is that the committee will take the easy way out and just make the A-10 title game a play-in game effectively, sending the loser to the NIT. I do think if VCU loses people will include them, potentially knocking out SMU or the final SEC team. Personally I think VCU’s lack of top end wins, specifically a 0-3 record in Q1(A) would be why they miss out. Not to mention their WAB would at least fall to the mid-40’s and predictive sites have them closer to 50th. There just isn’t enough meat on the bone if they are adding a loss to Dayton to the equation, which would drop them to just 6-8 in Q1/2. Their best win would be over USF, while the SEC teams have a plethora of big wins over tourney teams, as does SMU who has knocked off Louisville, UNC and Texas A&M, all tourney teams. So, at this point my official prediction is the winner of the A-10 champ game gets slotted into an 11 seed and the loser is out. It’s an easy swap for the committee either way, as trying to fit VCU in and bumping someone else out would be quite the ordeal, and they have done it this way in the past. Not to mention it is justified as VCU just doesn’t have the wins to be included. They played Vandy, Utah St, and NC State in the noncon and lost all 3 and then got swept by St. Louis. 0-5 against tourney teams is a very tough sell. (3/15)

Outside Looking in:

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–Others–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

Miami (OH) (64) – Proj. Last 4 In

Well we’ve officially hit uncharted territory as Miami OH lost in the first round of the MAC tourney to UMass to throw a completely unprecedented resumé at the committee. Without getting too deep into the philosophical questions I’m going to try and place myself in that committee room and foster a guess at what they might weigh as they make a decision. First off, we heard from Dan Gavitt in mid-February as he proclaimed loudly WAB would be a big factor in “selection decisions” with less weight in seeding calls. Well, Miami’s hopes now reside in that metric as look to be landing at a 37th ranking there. Nobody in the top-40 was left out last year. They also have their tug on the heartstrings plea of, well we went 31-0 don’t punish us for one bad game! This is an entertainment product after all, and while there is very little to go on in terms of the criteria the committee has laid out in the past beyond WAB, I definitely can see a story like this that has captivated the country getting special treatment. Let’s be clear, special treatment is what it will require, as predictive sites like Kenpom and Bart torvik barely have them as a top-100 team right now and they didn’t play a Q1 game all season long, much less win 1. They also can’t make the argument that they haven’t lost to a bad team anymore, as UMass is somewhere around the 200th best team in the country. It is of course an unprecedented resumé, but we are talking about them being stacked up next to teams like Oklahoma, Texas, SMU and even other mid-majors like VCU, Santa Clara and San Diego St. By the standards put forward by the committee, the only place they beat those teams out is in WAB. What that does mean is the committee will have something to point to if they include them, and what I am projecting is they are sent to Dayton, where their home fans would pack the stands and produce an awesome atmosphere for college basketball, and they can have a shot at a big boy to prove themselves. I am placing a non-zero chance they are left out, because if the committee simply stays true to their full assessment of teams, it’s logical to conclude other teams are more deserving. I just think the story and potential for what that Dayton environment could look like will look a whole lot better to the committee than the storm that would ensue if they left them out. So, Miami should be dancing, but I see nothing better than a spot in Dayton and it is a complete guess as to what the committee will do. (3/12)