Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, and exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in that first article. For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally, the flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. The beauty of this series is it is completely reactionary week to week, but over the course of the next 6 weeks or so we are going to encapsulate the journey some of these teams take entering March. Let’s dive in.

1. Houston: (17-2) Off (15) Def (1) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Houston is who we thought they were. I have been waiting for weeks for them to win a tough Big 12 game and they did so heading to Provo, Utah and beating a BYU team that the data suggests is a top-10 team in the Country. They defend, they rebound, and when they’re right they have 3 guys in Shead, Cryer and Sharp who can score. They have had issues in their 2 losses scoring the basketball, but their ability to defend and get offensive rebounds has offset that for the most part. It’s still a bit concerning seeing they’re 235^th in 2 pt FG %, but when you can get 15+ offensive rebounds a game then you can afford to miss some shots. I love how hard they play, I think Kelvin Sampson is a fantastic HC, I just worry about them offensively. Every team has a weakness, so at the end of the day you just have to trust the data. That suggests this Houston team should be a March Favorite.  
2. Purdue: (18-2) Off (1) Def (11) – IMPENETRABLE
   • I said last week that an easy 2-0 week and I would be all-in on the Boilermakers, and wouldn’t you know that’s exactly what happened. Both games were very impressive wins, with a 30 point drubbing of Michigan and a 14-point win @ Iowa, holding them to just 70 points. Defensively is the side of the ball that has to be monitored for Purdue, as in their two losses they’ve given up 92 and 88. When they’re locked in and connected defensively they can be pretty good, in spite of the weakness they have with Zach Edey. Even though he can block shots, smaller teams can really expose him on closeouts and breakdown Purdue defensively. Not to mention any guards who can excel in the mid-range can tear Purdue apart in ball screen action as Edey has to play drop coverage, see Jalen Hood-Schifino last year. All of those being true, and Purdue still being a top-15 team defensively is highly impressive, and that fact along with their improvement from 3 from 32% to 40% is the reason I’m all-in on these Boilers.
3. Tennessee: (14-4) Off (19) Def (2) – FLYER
   • Slowly but surely we’re seeing Tennessee improve offensively and creep up towards that impenetrable territory. For now, their limitations beyond Knecht are holding them back, but I have hope due to the return of Zeigler and how much better it has looked game after game with him at the point. They absolutely man-handled Alabama in their only game since we last met, and with only a trip to Vandy and then S. Carolina at home, I don’t expect much to change between now and next week. We know they defend at an elite level, just sitting back now and monitoring how they continue to improve offensively as SEC play rolls along.
4. Auburn: (16-3) (10) (5) – IMPENETRABLE
   • It’s becoming clearer to me who this Auburn team is, or at least where their struggles are going to be as their schedule ramps up. They really can dominate the front-court with Broome and Williams, but their 1-3 spots are made up of a large rotation of guys who are ultimately all B players. They defend at a high level, and have a ton of versatility on that end as they can switch and all 5 guys can defend on the perimeter. They have a ton of depth as well, it’s just they don’t have that go-to scorer/playmaker in the backcourt. Their weakness is in the half-court, and while every team has a weakness, I think this one is going to continue to shine bright as SEC play rolls along. They have Tennessee, Kentucky and Alabama again still on their schedule. Plus a meeting with Mississippi St on the road up next, who is a team that can lock you down and make life miserable. Obviously Auburn is a great defensive team and has 2 bigs they can play through, but we’re going to find out just how much of a weakness this backcourt is in a hurry.
5. Arizona: (14-5) Off (8) Def (12) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Arizona continues to baffle me, losing to Oregon St last night and just further proving they are not to be trusted. They gave up 83 points on 68 possessions to Oregon St, yes the now 10-9 Oregon St Beavers. I get not showing up for a game or two, but we’re now up to 3 losses to teams I don’t have in the tourney. Their defensive rank has gone from 3^rd to 12^th over the last couple of weeks as they’ve racked up disgusting losses in the Pac-12. They can score, they play fast and share the ball, but you can’t convince me at this point this is a great defensive team. I know they’re ranked 12^th, and the data suggests they are technically a team to trust in March, but with a little human context you can see they don’t play consistently well, something you have to do to win 4-6 games in a row in March. Maybe they can just turn the switch on and go on a run, but I have a feeling I won’t be forced to trust the data with Arizona come March as that defensive rank should continue to balloon unless they turn this ship around. Up next is a trip to Oregon where they could easily lose and then an easy one with Cal at home. Tick tock Arizona, I see right through you.  
6. UNC: (16-3) (16) (4) – FLYER
   • The Tar Heels are the hottest team in the Country right now, winners of 9 in row, all by double digits and they’re now 8-0 to start ACC play. I’ve spoken at length about their turnaround before, but it’s worth noting they continue to play stifling D, which has been the biggest key to their success. RJ Davis is playing at an elite level, but the addition of Harrison Ingram might be the biggest key for this team. He is shooting 39% from 3, but more importantly, during ACC play he’s now averaging 10.6 rpg including nearly 3 offensive boards a game. His activity on the glass and versatility defensively has been a catalyst for their turnaround from a season ago. So much pressure to produce has been lifted off the shoulders of Bacot, and without lazy Caleb Love they actually are connected defensively. I would expect them to continue to rise up the rankings and enter that Impenetrable category very soon. They do have a tricky week upcoming though, with trips to a hot Florida St team and then a pesky GA Tech team on the docket, with the Duke game lying in wait. These are the survive and advance type of weeks.
7. UConn: (17-2) Off (3) Def (28) – FLYER
   • UConn racked up another impressive win this week going to Villanova and squeaking out a W. Donovan Clingan is back and producing, and as expected they have turned their defensive woes around with his return. His presence inside as a shot blocker is huge for them, as they can get up and put more pressure on teams knowing he’s in the middle. He also is huge for them in the rebounding department, and as we always harp on here, defensive rebounding is a huge part of defense that doesn’t always get discussed. Hard to limit teams offensively if you can’t end the possession with a board. What I’m interested to see is how much of an impact he will have overall on that end, can they work their way into a top-15 ranking? Time will tell, but in the Big East they will face multiple elite offenses, so the answer will be self-evident. Up next are 2 home games with Xavier and Providence, so the train should just keep on rolling.
8. Alabama: (13-6) Off (2) Def (57) – VULNERABLE
   • Bama and Nate Oats just got through their toughest week on the schedule, going to Tennessee and losing but bouncing back to beat Auburn at home. They needed that win after a bit of an egg in the Tennessee game, but I genuinely think Oats is maximizing what he has in this roster. He’s missing his key ingredient, which is an athletic front court guy that can block shots and clean up the glass. Last year it was Bediako, and they were top-5 defensively, and prior to that he had Herbert Jones when they were top-5 as well. Let me say it clearly, you can’t extend your defense and try to create havoc without that guy sitting back in the middle ready to block/alter shots. That’s the reason for that 57^th ranking. They don’t clean up the glass and they give up driving lanes while over-extended without the guys inside able to block and alter shots. Proof? Auburn shot 55% from 2, while Tenn shot 58%. They’re now 157^th in 2pt FG % allowed. Yes they can score, but this roster is not built to play well defensively, even if they’re giving max effort, which I thought they were the other night v Auburn. They still gave up 75 points (75 possessions) and that was with Auburn going 5-25 from 3. I don’t see Oats switching his philosophy, so I will continue to watch Bama for the fun and chaos, but come March I will be avoiding at all cost. Up next for them is a home tilt with LSU and then a trip to a pesky Georgia team.
9. BYU: (14-5) (12) (23) – FLYER
   • Well, the BYU experiment seems to be crashing and burning, yet somehow an 0-2 week still has them in the 9^th spot for another week. They have fallen tremendously far though, from impenetrable to flyer status, which I believe more accurately depicts who this team is. They dropped a tough road game to a good Texas Tech team, but the home game v Houston is one you’d think a top-10 team could take care of. I know they’ve been dealing with injuries, and maybe in a few weeks that rotation will look back to normal and they’ll be playing much better again, but until then we have to call it like it is and they’re just 2-4 in Big 12 play. They have a bounce-back opportunity up next with Texas coming to Provo. The Longhorns have been playing better but this feels like a must-win for BYU to keep things from totally spiraling out of control.
10. Illinois: (14-5) (7) (31) – FLYER
    • The Illini have welcomed back Terrance Shannon Jr, for better or worse, and went 1-1 since we last met. They blew out Rutgers at home and then lost a thriller in OT @ Northwestern. Something about those Wildcats at home produces some wild games against top teams, and the Illini were just unable to stop Boo Buie. The return of Shannon will be interesting to watch, as Illinois had found some rhythm offensively without him, but it could be a great thing in the end as Domask and Harmon are now playing with much more confidence. Their 5-out approach with Hawkins and Guerrier in the front-court makes them extremely difficult to defend, and very versatile defensively. Their weakness comes on the defensive end though, as they just don’t apply much pressure and are one of the worst teams in the Country when it comes to forcing TO’s. Northwestern had just 5, for example, which allowed them to get in rhythm and get essentially whatever matchup they wanted offensively, as Illinois switches 1-5. Of course, not every team is going to go 11-18 from 3, but when you allow a guy like Buie to pick his matchup and then penetrate and breakdown the defense, you’re going to give up rhythm 3’s. That was the story, and that has been the story in their 5 losses, giving up over 1 point per possession in each. Up next, they get a meh IU team at home and then a trip to a desperate Ohio St team. A 2-0 week would be very impressive.
11. Wisconsin: (15-4) (6) (47) – FLYER
12. Iowa St: (13-4) (52) (3) – VULNERABLE
13. Duke: (14-4) Off (9) Def (38) – FLYER
14. Baylor: (14-4) (5) (62) – VULNERABLE
15. Creighton: (15-5) (34) (14) – FLYER
16. Michigan St: (12-7) (33) (18) – FLYER
17. Marquette: (14-5) (35) (16) – FLYER
18. Kansas: (16-3) (28) (25) – FLYER
19. Gonzaga: (14-5) Off (26) Def (29) – VULNERABLE
20. Kentucky: (14-4) (4) (96) – VULNERABLE

Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, and exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in that first article. For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally, the flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. The beauty of this series is it is completely reactionary week to week, but over the course of the next 6 weeks or so we are going to encapsulate the journey some of these teams take entering March. Let’s dive in.

1. Houston: (15-2) Off (11) Def (1) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Last week I was hoping for a 2-0 week from Houston to really build the belief that they truly are the #1 team in the Country, as all the data would suggest. What we got was a thrilling 1 point loss @ TCU and then a bounce back, 23-point drubbing of Texas Tech at home. The loss to TCU once again exposed some of the Houston limitations, as they shot just 22% from 3. They shot much better at home, but the shooting dry spells that come with this group is their one shining weakness. We’ve spoken at length of how they offensive rebound and how well they defend, and that is good enough to compete for a Big 12 championship. However, they need to find some consistent offensive schemes, as watching them offensively can be very painful at times. They stand around, and the only guy who can really make plays on his own is Jamal Shead. To illustrate this point, looking at their 2 losses he had just 8 assists and 6 turnovers. Their prior 2 wins he’s had 21 assists to just 3 turnovers. His ability to get in the lane to score/distribute is critical to their success offensively. There’s a lot on his shoulders, and it’ll only continue to get tested as Big 12 play rolls on. With a hot UCF team coming in and then a trip to BYU up next week the schedule is unrelenting.  
2. Purdue: (16-2) Off (2) Def (19) – FLYER
   • What a bounce back week for Purdue after losing to Nebraska last week. They handled business v Penn St in Mackey Arena, and then went on the road and dismantled rival Indiana in what was one of their more impressive Conference performances. They finally locked in defensively, and while it’s not hard to outwork this year’s IU team, they still looked far better than they previously had energy wise on the road. That’s a key when it comes to March, as you truly have to bring your own energy on those neutral courts a majority of the time. Edey is still as dominant as they come, putting up 63 and 34 over these 2 games, but what is most impressive has been the ancillary guys and their ability to knock down shots. Last season they shot just 32% from 3, this year they’re damn near 40%. That improvement is what has me starting to believe this group can pull off the 2019 Virginia story arc. 1^st round embarrassment to National Champs. Next up is a trip to Iowa where they’ll need to lock in defensively as the Hawkeyes can drop 90 on anyone, especially at home. Watch that one, but the home game v Michigan should be an easy dub. A 1-1 week will cause a pumping of the brakes on the Natty thoughts, but 2-0 and I might be all-in.
3. Arizona: (13-4) Off (8) Def (3) – IMPENETRABLE
   • The Wildcats are a mystery as they’ve now lost 4 times, 2 of those to non-tourney teams as it now stands. The most recent, a loss to Wazzu, was just more of the same issues we’ve talked about in the past. They gave up more than 1 point per possession to a team sub-70 in offensive efficiency, which marks a 4/4 trend in their losses. They followed it up with an easy win over USC, where the defense was better along with the offense as well. In that loss they amassed 22 offensive rebounds, and still lost, shooting just 34% from the field and missed 8 free throws. So while the defense wasn’t amazing, the offense also fell short for the first time this year. In spite of all of that they’re somehow still top-10 in both O and D on the season, and therein lies the mystery. When they show up to compete, they so thoroughly dominate they’re metrics are looking amazing, it’s just those 4 losses that are throwing up red flags. Here we trust the data, and it’s telling us Arizona should be the favorite. But forgive me for having a bit of hesitation watching them sleepwalk through a couple of these Pac-12 games. Trust the data, trust the data. Next up is UCLA at home and a trip to Oregon St, in what has to be a 2-0 week or things will definitely change.
4. Auburn: (15-2) (9) (9) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Auburn continues to do steamroll through their schedule, winning 10 in a row now, all by double digits. LSU and Vandy aren’t exactly tough competition though, and that’s the issue they face right now, as they have 0 Q1 wins so despite their great metrics they still need to add to their resume to get a top seed. They have been ultra-impressive though, dominating the front-court with their duo of Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams, who combined for 36 and 20 in their last W over Vandy. Add in Dylan Cardwell’s 12 and 6 off the bench and it’s easy to see where the strength of this Auburn team lies. I’m really just waiting to see this group take on a top contender and see how they look, as it’s one thing to run through a weak schedule and another to actually beat quality teams. They get a mysterious Ole Miss team at home and then have a trip to Bama after that in what will be a must watch game. Hang tough or even win that game and I’ll be a step closer to really taking this team seriously.
5. UConn: (16-2) Off (3) Def (33) – FLYER
   • UConn continues to roll, and welcomed big man Donovan Clingan back in their most recent win vs Creighton. We had been watching them suffer defensively, and I had been chalking it up to his absence for a few weeks now as we saw their ranking balloon from 23 to 45. Well, with Clingan back, they held an explosive Creighton team to just 48 points. They dominated the glass as well which was an issue in prior games, winning the OREB battle 21-6 and the overall possession battle by a whopping 22. All of that means when you go 5-19 from 3 you can still beat a good team pretty handily. It certainly helped having Clingan back, but it’s worth noting the rest of the team showed much more effort defensively and on the glass. If they can bring that going forward, they’re going to really take form and look like a real threat for March once again. They play just once until we meet again, with a tough road test against Nova. That will be a fun one.
6. Tennessee: (13-4) Off (21) Def (2) – FLYER
   • The Vols continue to look like a whole different level of good this year compared to what we’ve seen in the past, and as I’ve said before that’s all on the shoulders of Dalton Knecht, who dropped 36 and 39 in the 2 games this week. Nobody else in the Country can score the way he can at all 3 levels, and as we discussed last week the continued emergence of Zakai Ziegler as his Robin is making Tennessee more and more scary as the weeks go by. Their ability to defend at an elite level, mixed with an offensive arsenal led by Knecht is a combo that can finally get Rick Barnes and these Vols over the hump. They have to continue to take care of business though, and they’ll be tested in their lone game this week with a white hot Bama team coming to Knoxville.
7. Alabama: (12-5) Off (1) Def (63) – VULNERABLE
   • Bama winning @ Mississippi St really has to make you pause and wonder if you can really take this group for real. They don’t defend, but an offense this elite is something you must stop and think about. They went on the road against a top-10 defensive team and put up 82 points. When you look back and try to find offenses with this level of efficiency, you’re looking at teams like 2021 Gonzaga (runner ups), 2018 Villanova (Champs), 2015 Wisconsin (runner ups) which makes you stop and pause…but then you get to 2013 Mizzou, who unlike the previous teams mentioned, struggled mightily on the defensive end, much like this year’s Bama. Mizzou lost as a 2 seed in the 1^st round. I’m not saying Bama definitely is going to get upset, but therein lies the reason for the vulnerable tag. You don’t go on runs being this unbalanced. You have to be able to win on both ends of the floor at times when you need 4/5/6 straight wins against quality teams. Those 3 mentioned earlier were all top-25 defensively. Until we see an improvement on that end from Bama, we just can’t bet on them to go on a run. They’ll have opportunities to prove themselves this week, with two top-10 teams on the docket. First, they head to Knoxville and then host rival Auburn. A 2-0 week would obviously change things, but even splitting those games wouldn’t be anything to hang your head about.
8. UNC: (14-3) (15) (5) – IMPENETRABLE
   • The Tar Heels are playing as well as any team in the country right now, winners of 7 straight by double digits. As we spoke about last week, the turnaround has been on the defensive end, as they’ve now held 7 straight opponents to 1 PPP or less. There’s really not much more to say at this point, as they’re kind of just strolling through what is a pretty weak ACC schedule right now. They go to Boston College who is feisty but not good, and then get Wake Forest at home who they should handle. Like I mentioned last week, the first UNC/Duke matchup is setting up to be an absolute classic, with UNC looking at 18-3 while Duke also looks like they’ll win out and be 17-3. That game will be absolutely massive in Chapel Hill, so until 2/3 there won’t be much to add unless the Heels drop one they shouldn’t.
9. BYU: (14-3) (14) (8) – IMPENETRABLE
   • BYU hit a snag last week, dropping back to back games and falling from 4^th to out of the top-10 in the process. They bounced back though, winning at UCF and then knocking out Iowa St at home. I had to take a step back from my BYU take but I still think this team can absolutely make some noise in the Big 12 and in March. They hit 3’s as well as any team in the Country, they defend at a high level and they keep people off the offensive glass. It’s a recipe for success, and while most are looking at BYU as if they’re this WCC team that the Big 12 is going to rough up, I think they’re right there with Kansas/Houston at the top of this Conference. They travel to Texas Tech in a winnable but tough game next, and then they truly get to prove themselves with Houston coming to Provo on Tuesday. This is one of those times when I could look back and say, wow how wrong were you, but I just see them squeaking 1 of those out, but only if their best shooter Trevin Knell is back healthy after missing the Iowa St game. Either way, it’s a huge week for the Cougs.
10. Duke: (13-3) Off (7) Def (31) – FLYER
    • Duke had a quiet and unimpressive week if you ask me, with just one game skating by GA Tech at home. They gave up 79 points and at one point in the second half got down 10. They fought back and won, but that was a scary one for a young team and HC where the guys just didn’t show up and they almost lost a bad one. They’ve already lost to the Yellow Jackets once and also an Arkansas team that doesn’t look good either. You’re going to see this from a young team, but that is very dangerous when entering March as a top seed. You have to show up in March, no questions asked, regardless of the program you get. I have way more reservations with this team than I thought I would have coming into the season. They’re soft and don’t always play hard. That’s a bad recipe for the Madness. Of course, they’re a young team so there’s time for change, but it better come fast as things will get tougher down the road. This week they get two cupcakes with Pitt at home and a trip to Louisville, but if they sleepwalk again they could suffer another bad loss. Keep an eye on the young Dukies.
11. Illinois: (13-4) (10) (27) – FLYER
12. Wisconsin: (13-4) (6) (39) – FLYER
13. Kansas: (15-2) (28) (11) – FLYER
14. Iowa St: (13-4) (56) (4) – VULNERABLE
15. Baylor: (13-2) (5) (47) – FLYER
16. Creighton: (13-5) (42) (7) – FLYER
17. Kentucky: (12-2) (4) (58) – VULNERABLE
18. Michigan St: (11-7) (25) (24) – FLYER
19. Marquette: (12-5) (32) (14) – FLYER
20. OKLAHOMA: (14-3) Off (48) Def (20) – FLYER

Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, and exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in that first article. For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally, the flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. The beauty of this series is it is completely reactionary week to week, but over the course of the next 8 weeks or so we are going to encapsulate the journey some of these teams take entering March. Let’s dive in.

1. Houston: (14-1) Off (16) Def (1) – FLYER
   • Well Houston finally dropped a game, and surprise surprise it was the offensive end of the floor that caught up to them. Iowa St was able to match their physicality, and in the end hit a few more shots than the Cougars. I expect them to bounce back, but there’s no doubt if you have a couple of shot makers and can match Houston’s physicality you can beat this group. That’s a tall task though, especially with the frontcourt of Roberts/Tugler/Francis. Houston still looks like the team to beat in the Big 12, but the shooting droughts will be the thing to watch going forward. Their offense was basically just standing around and hoping someone could make a play. Credit to Iowa St’s D, but at the same time they exposed some limitations for Houston, as they always have 2 guys on the floor who can’t shoot outside of the paint with that frontcourt group. What they rely on is their offensive rebounding, and that’s going to have to carry them through, because they really can’t score sometimes and good teams will be able to hold them off on the glass. Will be interesting to watch the rest of this season and the schedule won’t let up as they get another road challenge with a rising TCU team and then head back home with Texas Tech. A 2-0 week will do a lot to make it feel like they really are the best team in the Country.
2. Arizona: (12-3) Off (5) Def (4) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Just one game from Arizona since we last met, and they just put it to a pretty good Utah team at home. There’s not a huge update from this one, we’re still watching the defense despite that 4th overall ranking from KP. In their 3 losses they’ve given up an average of 96 ppg, while holding the 12 teams they’ve beaten to less than 1 point per possession. When they’re locked in defensively, they’re the best team in the Country in my book. What concerns me for March is you don’t know what team is going to show up. You’d like to assume they get up for March games, but it’s out there lingering, whereas with teams like Houston or Tennessee you always can count on them showing up with physicality and togetherness on defense. It’s a distinction, but Arizona’s offensive ceiling is so much higher than any of the other great defensive teams I think they would be my bet to be able to win 6 games in a row as it stands in early January. Time will tell, but next up is @ Wazzu who is very well coached despite a lack of talent, and then back home against a flailing USC team.
3. Purdue: (14-2) Off (2) Def (17) – FLYER
   • Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, #1 ranked Purdue has lost on the road to an unranked team. Like clockwork another team full of shooters and a plan to eliminate Edey from the game knock Purdue off their mountaintop again. Nebraska did everything right, took Edey away, took driving lanes away and looked at the other four guys on the floor and said go ahead, out-shoot us from 3. They forced Purdue to take 9 more 3’s than 2’s and did their best to eliminate offensive rebounds. All of the credit should go to Nebraska, as they shot 14-23 (61%) from 3, most of which were tough contested shots, especially in the 2nd half. You’re not going to see that level of shot making again if you’re Purdue, but what you can’t do is come out sluggish and let an inferior opponent get rolling early in the game. I’m not going to say the sky is falling for Purdue, nor would I say this takes away my confidence in them come March, but a bounce back blowout of Penn St would certainly help quiet the noise. After the Penn St game they go on the road to rival Indiana, where a win would go a long way for their confidence because that is going to be a desperate Indiana team.
4. Auburn: (13-2) (13) (5) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Last week I was surprised by Auburn entering the top-10 chat, and here I am again surprised by them all the way up to 4th. They had two impressive wins last week, going to Arkansas and dismantling them by 32 and then coming home and winning a slugfest with A&M by 11. They’ve now won 8 straight games by double digits since the loss to App St, hell of a run. The thing about this Auburn team is they have a 2 headed monster in the frontcourt with Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams. These 2 have been dominating during this stretch, and with solid guard play out of guys like Holloway/Donaldson/Johnson/Baker-Mazara they are a connected and complete team. Don’t get it twisted though, what makes them a true contender on a National scale are those 2 dudes at the 4/5 spot. They now enter a lull in the schedule, with LSU at home and then a trip to the cellar of the SEC in Vandy upcoming. A loss in either of those games would be nothing short of a disaster, so I fully expect them to be 15-2 the next time we meet.
5. UConn: (14-2) Off (3) Def (42) – FLYER
   • It was a successful week for Hurley and co. picking up a road win over Xavier which is never anything to take for granted, especially with the other 4 top-5 AP teams falling on the road this week. The thing we are watching with this group is that defensive number, which has now ballooned from 23rd to 42nd over the last couple of weeks. We’re getting closer and closer to that vulnerable zone, but I do think a lot of the struggles are due to the absence of Clingan who provides a shot blocking presence inside for them. Also, an understated part of defense is finishing a possession with a rebound, something they really struggled to do against Xavier, giving up 20 offensive boards. Clingan should be back in the next week or two, so I expect them to improve defensively after that point and drive that number back down, but it’s still going to be the thing to watch with this UConn group. They get a cupcake with Georgetown at home and then a tougher game with Creighton at home. 2-0 without your star big man would be impressive.
6. Tennessee: (11-4) Off (23) Def (2) – FLYER
   • The Vols are an interesting team to watch right now, as they had a dominating win over an at-the-time undefeated Ole Miss by 26 but then lost on the road to a good Mississippi St team. The reason they’re interesting is they’re just so close to putting it together on both ends of the floor and becoming a very dangerous team. We know they can defend and rebound; it’s just been the scoring that has been the issue over the last couple of seasons. However, this year they found a go-to scorer in Knecht, which has been huge, but what is also emerging is a Robin to Knecht’s Batman in Zakai Zeigler. Zeigler had a tough November returning from injury and knocking the rust off, but since the start of December he is averaging 14.5 ppg and 6.4 apg. They obviously have their droughts offensively, see 1st half of Miss St game where they scored just 22 points, but they showed their celing in the 2nd half with more energy scoring 50 and almost completing a wild comeback. In short, I like where Tennessee is headed this year more than I ever have under Barnes. It’s just time to put it all together, with that nasty, physical defense and a 2-headed monster of Knecht and Zeigler offensively. Up next they head to a Georgia team that’s won 10 in a row and then back home to face Florida. Should be a 2-0 week, but this is college basketball, you just never know.
7. Duke: (12-3) Off (8) Def (14) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Duke is really starting to hit their stride right now, becoming a dominant force like many, including myself, were predicting coming into the season. The growth of the FR guards McCain and Foster has been huge, as both are outplaying Tyrese Proctor now. They struggled a bit with a feisty Notre Dame team in South Bend, but really flexed their muscle @ Pitt, winning by 22. The scary part is they should only continue to get better as these young kids continue to get better and better. They obviously have weaknesses, a lack of physicality being one of them, along with virtually zero offensive rebounding, but with the offensive talent and team defense they can be a real problem in March. They share the ball, they guard well and shoot it well at all 3 levels. They are clearly the co-favorite in the ACC with UNC, and should be 17-3 when they head to Chapel Hill 2/3. This week it’s a cake walk with Georgia Tech and Pitt at home. The ACC doesn’t offer much resistance, but for seeding they just can’t afford to drop a gimme.
8. Alabama: (10-5) Off (1) Def (57) – VULNERABLE
   • The Tide are starting to get rolling, and despite nearly losing @ Vandy I’ve still been more impressed with this group after they undressed S. Carolina 74-47. Mark Sears has been on an absolute tear, scoring 52 points in those 2 games going 9-13 from 3, as he looks like the player of the year in the SEC and a potential All-American. However, the improvement was on the defensive end, as they were much more active and forced 17 TO’s. The weakness is still in the frontcourt, as they have no shot blockers and their leading rebounders against SC were 6’1” Sears and 6’3” Estrada. The lack of a physical presence down low is what gives me pause and is what is causing that defensive rank to be so low. No shot blockers makes it very tough to play aggressive on the perimeter like Oats likes to play, and they struggle to secure defensive rebounds. Yes, they can score, better than any other team in the Country, but if you can’t get stops it’s going to catch up to you. Next, they go to Mississippi St, and I have no reason to think they won’t give up 15+ offensive boards and allow Tolu Smith to go off. After that it’s Mizzou at home so give me a 1-1 week from Bama and TBD if they remain top-10.
9. UNC: (12-3) (14) (8) – IMPENETRABLE
   • The Tar Heels have been one of the most impressive teams in the Country over the last few weeks, winning 5 straight games all by double digits. The key shift for this group happened in mid-December after back-to-back losses to UConn and Kentucky. In both of those games they gave up 87 points, well over 1 point per possession. Since then, they’ve held all 5 opponents under 1 point per possession, allowing no more than 69 points and the last 3 have all scored under 60. All of those last 3 wins were road ACC games, including Clemson who is a top-20 offense. That’s incredibly impressive, and a huge turnaround for a team under Hubert Davis that has struggled mightily on that end of the floor. If they can sustain this level of intensity on D they will be one of the best teams in the Country, because offensively with Bacot/Davis/Ingram they have one of the better trios in the Country. Similar to Duke, the schedule is soft until that massive matchup, with home games over Syracuse/Louisville this week. Barring a massive upset we should have a 18-3 UNC hosting 17-3 Duke. What a night that will be.
10. Illinois: (12-3) (7) (22) – FLYER
    • As we’ve discussed previously the Illini are adjusting to life without Terrance Shannon Jr, and credit to Underwood and his guys because they’ve been playing really well. They beat Sparty at home in what was always going to be a tough game, and Underwood has shrunk his rotation to 7 guys. 5 of those 7 scored in double figures, with Marcus Domask being the feature guy offensively. They’re very tough to guard even without Shannon, playing 5 guys who can shoot 3’s with a Hawkins and Guerrier front court, they very well could compete with Purdue and Wisconsin for a Big Ten title. Next up are 2 very winnable games with Maryland at home and then on the road to a Michigan program that is all but finished for the season, so we should be seeing Illinois remain in the top-10 next week.

11. Wisconsin: (12-3) (6) (29) – FLYER
12. BYU: (12-3) (20) (11) – FLYER
13. Creighton: (12-4) (18) (16) – FLYER
14. Baylor: (13-2) (4) (72) – VULNERABLE
15. Iowa St: (12-3) (52) (3) – VULNERABLE
16. Kentucky: (12-2) (9) (48) – FLYER
17. Michigan St: (9-7) (25) (21) – FLYER
18. Marquette: (11-5) (48) (10) – FLYER
19. Kansas: (13-2) (42) (12) – FLYER
20. OKLAHOMA: (13-2) Off (44) Def (15) – FLYER

Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, and exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in that first article. For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally, the flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. The beauty of this series is it is completely reactionary week to week, but over the course of the next 8 weeks or so we are going to encapsulate the journey some of these teams take entering March. Let’s dive in.

1. Houston: (13-0) Off (18) Def (1) – FLYER
   • We all know what Houston is about, and they flexed those muscles in their 1 win since we last met, holding Penn to just 42 points en route to a 39 point W. The amazing stat is they won the possession battle by 24, dominating the offensive glass and forcing 22 TO’s. They also did this without 2 major pieces in J’Wan Roberts and Terrance Arceneaux. Of course, it was a home game against an Ivy League school, but still, they continue to look like one of the greatest defensive units we’ve seen in a long time. We talked about the historical numbers they have thus far last week, but we continue to call them a flyer due to that offensive number. To reiterate the problem, it’s simply putting the ball in the basket, shooting just 49% from 2 (209^th), 35% from 3 (112^th) and just 66% from the line (318^th). Just the FT number alone could be a major detriment in March, but we’re going to find out real quick how concerning all that will be as Big 12 season kicks off. They get WVU at home (easy W) but then their first true test on the road against Iowa St Tuesday night. Watch that one closely, should be a rock fight.
2. Purdue: (14-1) Off (2) Def (7) – IMPENETRABLE
   • The Boilers continue to look like the most complete team in the Nation while picking up 2 Big Ten wins this week. The road win over Maryland was easy as the Terps never led, and the Illinois score looks much closer than it really was, as the Illini also never led but closed the gap late as the Boilers took their foot off the gas. The concern with Purdue is always smaller teams that can play 5-out offensively, because that puts big Zach Edey in a glaring mismatch defensively. Last year FDU took advantage of that better than Purdue was able to take advantage of Edey’s size on the other end. That problem poked its head again late in the Illinois game as the Illini went small and scored in bunches. The difference for the Boilers this year is outside shooting, which has improved from last year’s 32% to 39%. If teams take away Edey with a double or just fronting and over helping, outside shots are open, just have to knock them down. This year, to this point, that is the biggest improvement, with defense being right behind. They get a pesky Nebraska team on the road this week followed by a down Penn St at home. Look out for Nebraska though, that is an interesting test for this group.
3. Arizona: (11-3) Off (5) Def (3) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Arizona is somewhat of an enigma this year, losing by 18 to Stanford while giving up 100 points, right after I pointed out that suspect defense, but then coming back and beating Colorado by 47. When they’re locked in, they’re as good as anyone, but when they don’t show up defensively anyone can beat them. That’s a scary thing when thinking about March. Yes the defensive number says they’re an elite team, but that’s on the average, and there have been 3 nights out of 14 where they didn’t show up defensively and each time gave up 90+ points an a loss. Yes the data says impenetrable, but you can’t ignore the inconsistency when you’re talking about a team you’re counting on to win 4 or 5 or 6 high leverage games in a row come March. I’m going to be watching them really closely as they navigate Pac-12 play, as I just can’t see that #3 number staying that high over the course of the next 17 games.
4. BYU: (12-1) Off (8) Def (10) – IMPENETRABLE
   • I’ve been on an island beating the BYU drum since the pre-season when I was roasted for having the audacity to even have them finishing in the top half of the Big 12. Even a couple BYU fans on Redditt called me crazy, and maybe they’re right, but all indications thus far is BYU is even better than I thought they’d be. There is however still doubt, as their schedule has been weak thus far, but here comes the Big 12 schedule with all its might, so over the next 18 games we’re going to find out if this is for real. On the docket this week is Cincy at home and then their toughest test thus far with a trip to Waco on Tuesday. There’s no hiding now, it’s sink or swim for the Cougars.
5. UConn: (13-2) Off (4) Def (35) – FLYER
   • The Huskies have bounced back and reeled off 3 in a row after dropping one to Seton Hall. This week DePaul was expected, but the road win over a frisky Butler team was big for them to build some momentum. The one thing I’m watching with this group is that defensive number, as it has ballooned from 23 to 35 after the two games this week. Now, you could attribute that to the absence of Donovan Clingan, who is averaging multiple blocks per game and helps them on the glass, but either way, it’s the only thing to monitor with this team as we know they can score. They keep getting better too as the FR Stephon Castle gets healthy and comfortable, so once Clingan returns they’re going to be tough to slow down. This week they have another average team on the road in Xavier and then a cupcake with Georgetown.
6. Alabama: (8-5) Off (1) Def (71) – VULNERABLE
   • Since we last met Alabama absolutely torched Liberty, who is a very good mid-major team, so a 45 point is an attention grabber. The defensive number improved, but still isn’t good enough to trust this group with a 10-foot pole. There isn’t much new to say, we know they play fast and can score, but the question still remains if they can improve enough defensively to be a true threat come March. This week they get a bad Vandy team on the road and then a decent S. Carolina at home in what shouldn’t be anything other than a 2-0 week. If it’s not that, then I would imagine they didn’t defend and gave up 90 points in a loss. That’s how they will lose games they shouldn’t, if they do. We shall find out.
7. Illinois: (11-3) Off (6) Def (19) – FLYER
   • The Illini are an interesting story right now, as they’ve played 3 games now without their leading scorer Terrance Shannon Jr and seemingly have been better offensively without him. Since last week their offensive number climbed from 19 to 6, as guys like Marcus Domask, Quincy Guerrier and Justin Harmon have filled the gap and the ball is moving much better. They destroyed Northwestern by 30, and then battled back against Purdue on the road in what was their toughest game on the schedule. No shame in losing that one. The bottom line is there’s a ton of talent on this roster, and without the standing around watching Shannon they seem to be playing a bit better. It’s still early on without him, but another massive test with white hot Sparty coming to Champaign this week will be a great example of what to expect from the new look Illini.
8. Tennessee: (10-3) Off (31) Def (2) – FLYER
   • As we’ve been saying for the last couple of year’s it’s all about the offense for the Vols, as we know they’re going to be one of the best defensive teams in the Country. This is the best they’ve looked on that end during this era under Barnes, and most of that can be attributed to newcomer Dalton Knecht, who leads them in scoring. They’ve won 6 in a row, but the schedule is about to ramp up in the SEC, with undefeated Ole Miss coming in and then a trip to Mississippi St this week. We are going to find out real quick if they can score well enough to win tough games, as we know Chris Beard led teams are going to defend and of course that’s Miss St’s calling card as well. 2 rock fights in store, must-see TV all week.
9. Duke: (10-3) Off (10) Def (25) – FLYER
   • Duke had a dominant week with 2 blowout wins over Queens (yawn) and then Syracuse, which was far more impressive. The FR Jared McCain is the story right now, as he’s been on fire during this 5-game winning streak, scoring in double figures in each game and is now shooting 47% from 3 on the season. He’s now starting over a healthy Tyrese Proctor and the Dukies are better for it. I still question their toughness, and it’s not really going to get tested much in the ACC, but I wonder how they’d fare against a Tennessee or Houston who brings such physicality. They don’t offensive rebound well, and the defense can go through lazy stretches, but you can definitely tell they’re improving as these FR come along. Trips to Notre Dame and Pitt await this week, but if they are who they think they are it should be a 2-0 week.
10. Auburn: (11-2) (16) (18) – FLYER
    • Finding Auburn in the top-10 is surprising to me, as they really haven’t picked up an impressive win and have a bad loss to App St out there. However, since that loss they have been dominating bad teams, with 6 wins in a row, all by 16+ points including wins over IU and USC (neither in the tourney as of today). Like with all the other top-10 teams life is about to get much more difficult, with a trip to Arkansas up next and then Texas A&M coming to town. I wouldn’t be shocked if they went 0-2, but a 1-1 split could be good enough to keep them hanging on to top-10 status. Their strength is their pace, behind FR guard Aden Holloway as well as their strength inside with Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams. The glaring weakness is 3 point shooting, just 33% (174^th) and they’ve put teams at the line too much, ranking 270^th in FT’s given up. Free points given and missing shots on the other end is a recipe for L’s to stack up. We’ll see if it haunts them in SEC play.
11. UNC: (10-3) (12) (26) – FLYER
12. Marquette: (11-3) (26) (9) – FLYER
13. Wisconsin: (10-3) (14) (29) – FLYER
14. Baylor: (11-2) (3) (72) – VULNERABLE
15. Kansas: (12-1) (39) (5) – FLYER
16. Creighton: (10-4) (20) (20) – FLYER
17. Michigan St: (9-5) (32) (8) – FLYER
18. Iowa St: (11-2) (46) (4) – FLYER
19. Kentucky: (10-2) (9) (48) – FLYER
20. FAU: (11-3) Off (15) Def (44) – FLYER

Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, and exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in that first article. For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally, the flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. The beauty of this series is it is completely reactionary week to week, but over the course of the next 8 weeks or so we are going to encapsulate the journey some of these teams take entering March. Let’s dive in.

1. Houston: (12-0) Off (16) Def (1) – FLYER
   • Once again, we find a Kelvin Sampson led Houston team as the statistical darlings of the first 2 months of the season. What is happening with this iteration of the Cougars is especially noteworthy though, as their defensive rating would be the best by any team since 2019 Texas Tech, who lost to Virginia in the National Championship. Where they dominate is the same as it has been for years under Sampson, with stifling defense and a relentless attack of the offensive glass. For a team that has nobody over 6’8” the way they can dominate the boards is unlike anything I’ve seen in college hoops. It’s a team mentality, a 5 man war that if you’re not ready for you’re going to get smushed. They also have one of the better guard duos in LJ Cryer and Jamal Shead, but the emergence of Emanuel Sharp has been the surprise of the season and if he can continue to be that 3^rd offensive option Houston can be a real threat. That’s the real question for this Houston team, can they consistently be good enough offensively, to go on a run. That 16^th ranking is what’s keeping them from the impenetrable category. The struggles have been from the FT line, shooting only 66% and from inside the 3-point line, where they’re shooting just 49%, good for 212^th in the Country. Last year they were 73% from the line and 53% from 2. Those numbers are going to be the numbers to watch, as they assuredly look to improve offensively despite how dominate they can be defensively, because in their new Conference the Big 12 there are teams who play wide open and can really score. For now, they are as reliable of a flyer that there can be, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them creep into Impenetrable status in the weeks to come.
2. Purdue: (12-1) Off (2) Def (9) – IMPENETRABLE
   • The Boilermakers, outside of one night at Northwestern, have looked the part of the #1 team in the Country. They’ve amassed 5 Q1 wins thus far, 3 of which were over teams also found in this top-10. Zach Edey is doing what he does, the difference this year is the play of PG Braden Smith and G’s Fletcher Loyer and transfer Lance Jones. Smith is playing like one of the best pure PG’s in the country, averaging 7 apg and shooting over 40% from 3, huge improvements over his FR campaign. Loyer’s improvements driving the ball to score and the addition of Jones, who excels in that area, has helped as well. Last year it was dump it in to Edey or hope for a clean look from 3, which is great until you fail to hit open shots. This year they can attack the basket much better, with Smith, Loyer and Jones all threats to get to the rim and score, and of course Edey is there to clean things up if they miss. They are also running much more ball screen action with Smith and Edey, which adds just one more thing defenses have to worry about, as Smith has been excellent scoring and dishing out of that. As we enter January this is the team to beat in college basketball, as they have also been a very good team defensively as well, even while playing teams like Arizona, Alabama and Marquette who are elite offensive teams. Everyone likes to make fun of the Boilers and rightfully so after last year, but I think that is fueling this version of Purdue. We shall see.
3. Arizona: (10-2) Off (6) Def (2) – IMPENETRABLE
   • I will be honest, I watched Purdue beat Arizona in person, and that fact alone is probably the only reason I give Purdue the nod as the team to beat in the Country. The data says Arizona may be more reliable, as they’re top-6 on both offense and defense thus far. You can’t even look and say well they’ve played a weak schedule like Houston, they’ve played 6 Q1 games, going 4-2. The one thing that seemed to be an issue in those losses was their defensive intensity, which is surprising given that #2 defensive rank. But, in those two losses they gave up 92 and 96 points respectively. Granted, they play at a lightning pace so their scoring is going to be inflated, I still think that’s a number to watch as the season progresses. The additions of Caleb Love and Keshad Johnson have added some swagger and toughness to this group which was desperately needed after the past couple of seasons when I described Arizona as soft. With Ballo and Johnson inside, you can no longer say that. Love, Larsson and the emerging Kylan Boswell give Arizona a guard trio as good as any in the Country, and they have depth as well playing 9 guys most nights, all of which are extremely talented. So far, the Tommy Lloyd era has been great in the regular season, but they are just 2-2 in the big dance despite being a 1 and 2 seed. This may be his best team yet, but it all hinges on March. Stay tuned.
4. BYU: (11-1) Off (12) Def (7) – IMPENETRABLE
   • I’m going to toot my own horn here for a second, as I took a lot of flak from the Big 12 community when I posted my Big 12 preview and had BYU 6^th. The thought of BYU in the top half of the Conference was the one prediction I received the most criticism for, and here we are. Apparently I was the only one outside of Provo who saw this train coming, and frankly I probably was still off the mark as they look like they can be right there with Houston and Kansas at the top of the Conference. Now, I don’t expect them to be a dominant top-5 team at the end of February, but the way they have dismantled a relatively easy schedule should at least gain them some credit. They are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the Country, at nearly 38% as a team, and have been playing down multiple impact players, most notably starting F Fousseyni Traore. They also just welcomed back transfer guard Dawson Baker who scored in double figures in all but 3 games last year for UC Irvine, shooting 38% from 3. Not to mention talented FR Marcus Adams just made his debut in their last game. This was a very young team a year ago who brought back a ton of talent, shored up some holes and has catapulted itself into national relevance. The one loss to Utah was tough, as they shot just 23% from 3 and were without Traore, who is a force in the paint, but I expect this team to just continue to improve. The Big 12 is obviously going to be tough but they are equipped to be a top-4 team in this conference.
5. UConn: (11-2) Off (4) Def (23) – FLYER
   • This year’s version of UConn has received a ton of praise, and I’ll be the first to admit they’ve looked better than I thought they would. I put a future on Marquette in the Big East before the season, and still think it’s between them and UConn. What worries me about the Huskies is their lack of 3-point shooting, just 32% on the year and the defense that seems to come and go. They’ve gotten away with their poor shooting by being a top-10 team on the offensive glass, but as the schedule toughens up in the Big East, I worry that may catch up with them. And then there’s that defense, which just last week gave up 75 points to a meh Seton Hall team on just 62 possessions. They’re also getting some early credit for beating teams like IU/Texas/Gonzaga who are all big programs that are not nearly as good as you might think. I’m taking a pause on this group, even though they have talent, with Clingan, Newton, Karaban and the talented FR Castle back in the fold, I just want to see more. They have a ton of guys who are attempting to step into more prominent roles, so with time they may start playing much better. For now, I think 5^th is too high and could be more about where they started than how they’ve truly played. That will all get ironed out, so we’ll see if I’m on the right track with this one in the weeks to come.
6. Tennessee: (9-3) Off (31) Def (4) – FLYER
   • Well Rick Barnes continues to employ a culture with Tennessee that is an absolute nightmare to play against and to watch frankly. The defense is great, super physical and a ton of FT’s if the refs want to prevent a game from becoming an all out brawl. That’s nothing new though, what is a little different is we see that offensive number in a much better position than year’s past. I have avoided Tennessee like the plague the last couple of tourney’s due to their inability to score, and it has prevented them from making deep runs. This year they’ve added a guy in Dalton Knecht that has drastically improved their ability to score, and with Josiah-Jordan James healthy and shooting 43% from 3 there’s clearly been improvement on that end thus far. I still am not overly confident that once Big 12 season play gets rolling that number is going to continue to look good, as there’s a ton of pressure on Knecht to create. They need Vescovi to start playing better, he’s shooting just 30% from 3 after shooting 38% over his career. There’s potential for things to get better, but also to regress, I’m not sure how it’ll go but one thing is for sure is they’ll continue to be a lockdown defensive group that drags you into the depths of hell with their physicality. It’s all about making shots consistently for the Vols, new year, same story.
7. Illinois: (10-2) Off (19) Def (17) – FLYER
   • I was starting to gain some confidence in Illinois as the clear contender to Purdue in the Big Ten, but the recent suspension of Terrence Shannon Jr, for what seems like a long time, casts some doubt. He was a do everything guy for them and I’m not sure just how far they are going to fall without him. They have a lot of talent outside of him, and won game 1 without him by 30 points so it’s possible they’re still a threat. It’s just hard to imagine they’re 7^th best good without a 20 ppg scorer. This is a wait and see situation.
8. Alabama: (7-5) Off (1) Def (91) – VULNERABLE
   • If you’ve ever read anything I’ve written about Alabama you’d know I love Nate Oats. The style they play is right up my alley and frankly is just analytically sound. This year there’s some major issues though on the defensive end, which hasn’t always been the case in the past with Oats. Normally these Alabama teams play aggressive, force turnovers and when they do get beat have the shot blockers inside to bail them out. None of that is the case this year. They can score with anybody, but as we’ve seen they just cannot stop anyone, as Purdue, Arizona, Creighton, Clemson and Ohio State all scored 85+ points. They may be the best offense in the Country, but they will not find success unless they start getting stops. They aren’t forcing turnovers, they’re giving up offensive rebounds, it’s just a disaster, and I’m sure Oats would echo the same sentiment. Do not trust the Tide unless they start defending, that’s all you can say.
9. Duke: (8-3) Off (11) Def (29) – FLYER
   • Duke has been an odd team this year, as I thought they’d be one of the best 2 or 3 teams in the Country with all of their returning talent. But, here we sit with them having losses to Arkansas and Ga Tech, both not in my current bracketology field. They do have a good win over Baylor most recently that got them back into the top-10, but so far I have been disappointed in the Blue Devils. They have a fairly easy start to ACC play, but if they don’t toughen up defensively they may run into some trouble as the season goes on. Filipowski is a good scorer, but man he does not like contact, and that passiveness seems to be leaking to the rest of the team. Proctor has been hurt for 3 games and it might be the best 3 game stretch of the season for the Blue Devils, as the FR guards McCain and Foster are getting more time and playing really well alongside Roach. It’s a young group, but with so many SO’s back from last year’s team you’d expect to have seen some progress, but it really seems like more of the same. Good but not great.
10. FAU: (10-2) Off (10) Def (31) – FLYER
    • After an early season loss to Bryant the Owls were 49^th in KP’s rankings, they’ve since gone on a tear, including an OT win over Arizona to lift them into the top-10. They’re no longer the Cinderella, and with all their guys back from last year’s Final 4 run, this group looks poised to go on another run. It’s all about dominating Conference play now though, as they’ve gone through the Gonzaga style schedule of loading up the non-con to make up for the weak Conference competition. They really only have Memphis to deal with in the AAC, so it’s all about staying focused and taking care of business. This is an elite offensive team, as we saw last March, but if they just show up defensively over the next 6-8 weeks then we could see them as high as a 2 or 3 seed with those wins over Arizona and Texas A&M. Dusty May is going to be the most coveted HC there is in college hoops if this train keeps rolling. What a story.
11. Auburn: (9-2) (18) (19) – FLYER
12. Marquette: (10-3) (24) (14) – FLYER
13. Iowa St: (10-2) (40) (5) – FLYER
14. UNC: (9-3) (8) (39) – FLYER
15. Wisconsin: (9-3) (13) (37) – FLYER
16. Kansas: (11-1) (35) (6) – FLYER
17. Creighton: (9-3) (17) (25) – FLYER
18. Baylor: (10-2) (3) (71) – VULNERABLE
19. Kentucky: (10-2) (7) (54) – VULNERABLE
20. Clemson: (11-1) (15) (33) – FLYER

It’s late-December and the college hoops landscape is beginning to take shape, as some of the over-hyped pre-season darlings have shown us who they really are (shoutout Sparty) and the unlikely stars have shown themselves (hello Oklahoma). But everyone knows the entire season in CBB is a lead-up to the only thing that truly matters, March Madness. Every year is a race to figure out which teams “deserve” what seed and who among them are built to avoid the early round upset. Many will try and convince you it’s all random, that the best team doesn’t actually win and that the upsets and format diminish the significance of the glory found at the end of the most difficult 6-game winning streak to obtain in sports. I mean for crying out loud they lost to their mom in their family bracket challenge and she picked based on Mascots! It must be random. While I recognize losing to someone who happened to pick Peacocks (St. Peter’s) to beat Wildcats (Kentucky) can lead to this kind of thinking, I’m here to tell you definitively how to avoid betting on a doomed horse come March. I’m not going to give you a sure fire way to know every upset, nor am I claiming to have the ability to get a perfect bracket. I’m more concerned with how to avoid backing a severely vulnerable horse to make a deep run. How to spot the group of teams that look destined for trouble that wild 1st weekend we all love. This will be a purely data driven set of rules, based on pre-tourney Kenpom numbers heading back to 2005. 18 tournaments worth of data now that helps paint a picture on how to spot what teams could face trouble, what teams are impenetrable, and finally put to rest “the best team doesn’t actually win” narrative. Let’s get it.

To start let’s take a look at the most generic pool, the teams that entering the Madness were measuring as the best teams in the Country per Kenpom. So we’ll take the top-10 teams each year, giving us 180 teams and leaving out all of the rest. For context, that pool of teams includes 69 of the 72 1 seeds in our data (the other 3 all failed to make the Final Four) and extends all the way down to a couple 8 seeds (1 of which made a Sweet 16 run). I could go on and on with little nuggets of information, how 25 of the 36 teams to reach the Natty over this 18 years come from this pool and so on and so on, but what really matters is how do we parse down this group into the pretenders and contenders. Is there an analytical approach to identifying which of those top teams will survive the chaos of the tourney? Of course, that’s why we’re here.

Rule #1: Don’t back the Vulnerable

First, let’s look at those that didn’t make a run. There have only been 18 teams out of the 180 that entered as top-10 KP teams who have failed to get out of the 1st round (10%). Kenpom, for those who don’t know, ranks teams by taking each team and giving a Defensive efficiency score and an Offensive efficiency score, culminating in an overall efficiency. When you look at the data on those 18 teams, something jumps out immediately. Many of the teams who suffered a 1st round exit leaned heavily on 1 end of the floor. Recent example, 2021 Ohio St who as a 2 seed lost to 15 seed Oral Roberts. They ranked 4th offensively but 79th defensively (7th overall). They were what I would now categorize as “vulnerable”, and share that unbalanced distinction with other early exiter’s like 2014 Duke, 2013 Georgetown and 2012 Missouri as just a few of many examples. Now listen, I understand that those are merely anecdotes, but we’re going to get number heavy just so it can sink in, because I know that savvy readers could look back at 2023 and see San Diego St at 64 (D) and 10 (O) and think, well this is a crock of shit. Allow me to persuade you, with data, not just anecdotal examples. Since 2005, there have been 56 teams enter the tourney as a top-10 defensive team but sub-50 on offense. The Aztecs became just the 1st to reach the Natty with that archetype, and only the 3rd to ever make it to the Final Four (2012 Louisville, 2017 S. Carolina). Next you might say, well I can ride them to the Elite 8 or Sweet 16 and still be fine? I wouldn’t. Of those 56, just 14 (25%) made it out of the first weekend alive and into the Sweet 16, with just 6 making it to the Elite 8. When you flip it over, the numbers tell the exact same story. With 72 teams entering with top-10 Off and sub-50 Def, we see only 2 of those 72 (2.7%) reached the Final Four. Following the same path, we saw just 26 of the 72 (36%) make it out of the first weekend with just 8 reaching the Elite 8. Now, after all of that you might be asking, so how does this help me? Let’s look at an example, with Baylor a year ago being a dramatic example. They entered as a 3 seed, with the 2nd ranked offense in the Country, but 102nd defensively. They lost in the 2nd round, failing to get out of that first weekend. There are obviously going to be exceptions to the rule, but we’re talking about consistency over time, and this archetype is by far the least consistent group of teams hiding amongst the “elite”. These are teams that you should not trust to make a deep run, and should never pick to win the whole thing as it has never happened.

Rule #2: Bet on the Impenetrable

As you’ve likely gathered if you’ve made it this far we are trying to separate the wheat from the chaff, to establish a set of standards for identifying the uncommon amongst the uncommon. Time to shift the focus to the archetype I have deemed as the “impenetrable”. These are the teams you can back with certainty, and no I’m not just saying the four 1 seeds. We’re going to stay with Kenpom and our 18 years of data, focusing on the antithesis of the vulnerable. Teams who were top-15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. There have been 55 such teams over the last 18 tournaments, none of them lost in the 1st round. This group ranges from 1 seeds all the way down to a couple of 5 seeds, with results similar regardless of seed. Now, once we move beyond the 1st round things get interesting. Again, I’m not arguing for perfection, but 46/55 teams made it to the 2nd weekend. That’s an 84% clip, but it does put a small ounce of doubt in these teams. But the fact is there have been 99 top-4 seeds get upset prior to the Sweet 16, only 9 of those were from this group. All this does is help you identify which of those top 16 teams is most likely to survive and advance, because if you’re looking at the top seeds, and find a team that is top-15 in both, you’ve found a gem. Much like 2022 Houston, who was a 5 seed, you would have thought they had merely a 34% chance to make the Sweet 16 (5 seeds odds). But, with the top-15 in both you had more confidence they make the Elite 8 than the average 5 seed had to get out of the first weekend. And that’s exactly what they did, upsetting 1 seed Arizona in the process. The data is clear, if you’re trying to identify who is going to escape the carnage of the first weekend, this is the group with the best statistical chance to do so. Once you’re in the Sweet 16, it’s anybody’s game, and you’re still well over 50% on getting to the Elite 8. In my book, a team falling in these archetype is an auto Final 4 prediction, or else you might as well just flip coins.

Rule #3: Stop trying to predict the Cinderella

We all love the Cinderalla, the Loyola Chicago or Butler magical runs that captivate us all. But, you have to acknowledge there is no possible way to know, for sure, who is going on that run. So why send a 6 seed to the Final Four? Why take a 30th overall team on a deep run? You don’t know. Yes there is going to be one, in fact over the last 18 tournaments only twice have all 4 Final Four teams been in the top-10 of Kenpom (last time 2008). There is always 1 outsider that makes a run, rarely two, 2023 aside. The real trick are the “flyers”. Teams who go on runs but don’t fall into the perfect category, they are the hardest to spot, but you’ll need to try because the list of impenetrable teams can be small. The data is more murky on these teams, but when taking out the Cinderella’s (6 seeds and below) and the Impenetrables, we have a list of teams that you can find some trends with. They most often are elite at 1 end of the floor (top-10) and/or on the fringes of our top-15 in both category archetype. Focus on these after that first group, do not be a hero.

So, what this series will be all about is tracking those teams in and around the top-10, who is falling out who is rising in. Definitively labeling those who are “vulnerable” and those who appear “impenetrable”. All will be ebbing and flowing throughout the season but the once a week recap to be found here will be a great barometer for what teams are trending which way and how they look heading into March. And eventually it will be measured against the actual tournament, and the actual results. Year 19 of data to come, but this year we enter with a game plan to stop losing your bracket pool or fantasy league to the all the people who don’t even watch the sport.

1. Michigan (5-0)
   • Listen, the Wolverines have been the most dominant team in the Country and yes it’s been against a bad schedule but they’ve treated the bad schedule the way a #1 team should. Teams below them have all had struggles against bad teams, so regardless of who they’ve done it against, it’s still been dominant football. Like we’ve been saying the real season begins 11/11, but continued domination until then will keep them here. Next up, Minnesota, night night.  
2. Florida St (4-0)
   • Outside of the near loss to lowly BC, the Seminoles have looked like a true title contender, with wins over LSU and Clemson, that should age pretty well, especially with Clemson looking much better recently. They had an off week but are now diving into the ACC schedule with a cupcake of VT at home. Not going to tell us much, but it would be nice to see them put up a crooked number on a bad team.
3. Texas (5-0)
   • Texas has obviously been awesome, and a blowout of a frisky Kansas team is just another notch on the bedpost for a team that is clearly National title good. You’re splitting hairs with the top-3 and a lot of people would say Texas’ resume should earn them the #1, but in terms of who I genuinely think is better, this is where they fall. Huge game this weekend though, with Oklahoma up next in a massive matchup.
4. Georgia (5-0)
   • It’s finally time to drop Georgia, and while they still deserve the benefit of the doubt they have now struggled with Auburn and S. Carolina…2 below average teams. We’ve seen A&M handle Auburn and UNC/Tennessee handle S. Carolina with more ease, and you could argue Georgia just gets everyone’s best shot, but they haven’t looked like a #1. The upset is coming, and maybe it’ll be Kentucky this weekend. I doubt it, but Ole Miss and Tennessee are lurking.
5. Penn St (5-0)
   • Penn St hasn’t been quite as dominant as a team like Michigan but every 4^th quarter it has been comfortable thus far. Last week was no exception, even though they allowed Northwestern to hang around for a little it was still a 28 point win. They have a bye week and then UMass before things really ratchet up with a trip to Columbus. I still think they can knock off the Buckeyes, so I can’t wait for 10/21.
6. Ohio St (4-0)
   • Unlike Michigan, Ohio St has a tough October, with Maryland, Penn St at home and then trips to Purdue and Wisconsin. The Buckeyes have a lot more meat on their resume bone, I just don’t think they get through the slate clean. The defense has improved, but I’m not sold on McCord and this offense, especially against a team like Wisconsin and even more so Michigan. This week against Maryland is an interesting one, because the Terrapins have looked really good. Watch out.
7. Washington (5-0)
   • The Huskies survived a trip to Arizona, although the score doesn’t quite reflect how not close the game actually was. Zona scored late to cut from 14 to 7 but there was only a minute left, still though not a dominant performance and their defense leaves a lot to be desired. They get a bye week before Oregon comes to town in a clash of titans next Saturday.
8. Oregon (5-0)
   • Outside of the trip to Texas Tech where they had to scrap out a tough W, the Ducks have been absolutely dominant. Last week was no exception with a 42-6 drubbing of Stanford and Bo Nix looks like a true Heisman contender. They are off this weekend and then head to Washington in a massive game for the Pac-12 and the overall CFP race. A road win over Washington and they’re in the driver’s seat in this Conference.
9. USC (5-0)
   • Of the Pac-12 teams USC clearly has the best QB and probably the most dynamic offense, but their defense is beyond bad. They almost allowed Colorado to come back and win last week in a 48-41 win. They get Arizona this week so that should be another win, but that trip to ND is looming and I’m not sure they can get out of South Bend alive.
10. Notre Dame (5-1)
    • The Irish have a really good team this year but man this schedule is brutal, as they’ve now played 2 ranked teams in Ohio St and Duke, get Louisville on the road this week who is 5-0 and have USC around the corner. Not to mention a trip to Clemson is still out there. Comparing that to what Michigan has done and you could argue a 10-2 ND team could have a better resume than a 11-1 Michigan team. That’ll all settle out, but ND gets fighting and I don’t see Louisville knocking them off.
11. Oklahoma (5-0)
    • It’s prove-it weekend for Oklahoma as they have started off much improved over last year, but now in Texas they finally play a legit contender. Gabriel has been good, but the biggest change is on defense, as that side has looked completely different. However, in Texas they get one of the most dynamic offenses in the Country, with an emerging Quinn Ewers and an elite WR group. It may come down to Gabriel and this O-Line, as Texas has been able to dominate up front all season. Huge game, huge measuring stick for this program and Venables.
12. Miami (FL) (4-0)
    • The Hurricanes aren’t getting the respect they should, as the AP has them 17, behind teams like Bama, Oregon St and Ole Miss who all have 1 loss. Miami beat a very good Texas A&M team, a win that is going to age like fine wine. They get a bad GA Tech team this weekend in what should be a huge W to setup a massive game @ UNC next weekend. That’s where they can officially declare themselves contenders in the ACC.
13. Washington St (4-0)
    • The Cougars have 2 wins over teams I have in the top-25, Oregon St and Wisconsin, but somehow they are 3.5 point dogs against UCLA. Vegas isn’t buying this team, but I think they can easily go in and beat UCLA. Will they? That’s another question, but a 3.5 point dog is still a disrespectful line for a team that has played this well on the field. It’ll be a shootout, but if Ward plays well they can keep up with anybody.
14. Oregon St (4-1)
    • The Beavers bounced back after a road loss to Wazzu by knocking off Utah. They had the most success of any offense against Utah’s vaunted defense. DJ looked good enough, but it’s the O-line and Martinez running the rock that impressed the most. Utah had been the best team in the Nation defending the run, and this O-line opened up massive holes early. Utah started to clamp down but still they were good enough, and this defense was good enough to get a 21-7 win. Up next is Cal and then UCLA at home so they should keep it rolling.
15. Alabama (4-1)
    • Bama has shown us who they are so far, a great defense with a shoddy offensive line and an average QB. They now go on the road to play Texas A&M, and I have already placed my ML bet on the Aggies. The line is closing, but I really don’t think this Bama team a title contender. They very well could go 10-2 and win the West, but I still think the Pac-12 trio, Big 10 trio, FSU and Texas are all better and there will be 4 teams from that group more deserving to be in the CFP. They can change my mind this weekend though.
16. Ole Miss (4-1)
    • The Rebels bounced back after the Bama loss to knock off LSU in what was a surprising finish. I didn’t realize how bad the LSU defense was, but if you give up 55 to anyone that’s bad. Ole Miss has an equally as bad defense though, so it’s hard to believe they march through the SEC schedule without dropping more games. The next few weeks are must-wins with Arkansas, Auburn and Vandy. Then the season gets real with A&M and Georgia back-to-back.
17. Duke (4-1)
    • Duke lost a heart breaker to ND but they clearly have proven they are a top-20 team and a force in the ACC. They are off this week but next up is NC St which should be another W, but a trip to Florida St is up after that. Do I believe they can win that game? Not really, but they’re good enough that I wouldn’t be shocked if they muck it up and make it a dog fight. The Dukies are no joke, and we’re talking football not hoops.
18. UNC (4-0)
    • The Tar Heels are technically undefeated but it hasn’t been all that pretty and it’s been against just an ok schedule. I don’t think they’re better than Miami or Duke and they play both later this season. They should beat Syracuse, although the Orange are frisky, but after that is Miami at home and that’s when we learn who the real contender is in the ACC outside of FSU. With Drake Maye you can’t ever count them out, but the defense doesn’t seem as improved as they need it.
19. Utah (4-1)
    • Is Cam Rising ever coming back? We’ve been hemming and hawing every week guessing if he would or wouldn’t, and without him Utah looks bad bad on offense. They hung around with Oregon St but man, these backup QB’s just aren’t good enough. The schedule is tough, but a bye week and home tilt with Cal buys them a little more time to get him back. Then they get USC and Oregon in back-to-back weeks, so they’re running out of time.
20. Wisconsin (3-1)
    • People wrote the Badgers off after a loss to Wazzu early in the year, but is a road loss to a clear top-20 team that bad? Especially with all the turnover and a new QB, it shouldn’t have been shocking, or season ending. Here’s my prediction for the Badgers, they rip off their next 3 (Rutgers, Iowa, @ Illinois) and are 6-1 with Ohio St coming to Madison. Look out, because that could be the game that shakes up the entire Big Ten.
21. Texas A&M (4-1)
    • The Aggies are getting over looked after the loss to a really good Miami team, but this weekend they have the chance to get back on the map. Max Johnson is just as good at QB as Weigmann so I’m not worries there, and the defense has been really good outside of the Miami game. Milroe is no Tyler Van Dyke, so as I said earlier I already have the ML bet placed, I’m just ready to enjoy a great W.
22. Mizzou (5-0)
    • Possibly the most surprising 5-0 team in the Country? I would say so, and the win over K-State stacks up better than some of these other surprise 5-0 teams. They have a massive test with LSU this weekend, but a win here and we have to start taking Mizzou more seriously. They’re 6.5 point home dogs though, so nobody is really buying them. Watch out LSU could be 3-3 after being pre-season top-10.
23. Kentucky (5-0)
    • Well Kentucky beat an average Florida team at home and now we have to question if they are for real or not once again. Last year the same thing happened and it didn’t come to fruition. Here we are again, but now they head to Georgia, where I feel we all come back to earth with Kentucky. Good team, well coached but just not good enough to beat great teams.
24. Maryland (5-0)
    • Maryland has been pretty dominant against a bad schedule, dropping 44 last week on an IU team that held Ohio St to 23. It’s unfortunate their first big game is in Columbus, as I just don’t think they have enough defense to knock them off. However, they host both Michigan and Penn St later this year. There are two teams who can rock the boat in the Big Ten and it’s Maryland and Wisconsin.
25. LSU (3-2)
    • I haven’t quite given up on LSU, despite the defense looking like swiss cheese I still think this offense is good enough to beat most teams in the Country. 2 tough losses to Ole Miss and Florida St aren’t enough to knock them out for me, but a loss to Mizzou would be the last straw. However, if they can go to Mizzou and win and then take down Auburn and Army then they’re 6-2 heading to Bama. That’s what I expect but stranger things have happened.

1. Georgia (4-0)
   • The Dawgs continue to roll, and a 28-point win over UAB isn’t going to be anything to write home about. This week they’re heading to Auburn in what should be at least a step up in competition. The Tigers haven’t looked great this year, but at least it’s a step up in competition for Georgia. They can’t just sleep walk through this, although they are a 14.5 point favorite.
2. Michigan (4-0)
   • Similar to Georgia the Wolverines continue to sail through the early part of the season. A 31-7 win over Rutgers, again, isn’t anything to write home about and this week a trip to Nebraska is more of the same. I don’t think Nebraska will score a TD this week, maybe not even a point. Michigan by a billion (17 point spread)
3. Florida St (4-0)
   • The Seminoles look like a homerun to get to the playoff at this point as they’re undefeated with their 2 toughest tests in LSU and @ Clemson already in the barn. It’s hard to imagine they win those games but somehow drop games like Duke/Miami at home or even @ Florida. I think we’re looking at a 12-0 FSU team that’s skating into the playoff.
4. Penn St (4-0)
   • The Nittany Lions just put everyone on alert in their 31-0 drubbing of Iowa. Look, I know it’s Iowa, but to just demolish them like that was very impressive. Drew Allar is the dude and this is the year for James Franklin if there ever was one. They get an awful Northwestern team this weekend, then a bye and UMass. That sets up 6-0 heading to Columbus in mid-October where they’ll have a legit chance to knock off the Buckeyes. We’ll have to wait until then for the true judgement.
5. Texas (4-0)
   • I think Quinn Ewers is the guy and now the Longhorns have the guys in the trenches that can compete with the big programs. With the Big 12 being a bit down this year, Texas looks very likely to make the Playoff, with really the biggest test being Oklahoma at home next weekend. They get Kansas at home this weekend, which should be another W. The game I’m circling besides the Red River is @ TCU in mid-November. If there’s a slip up that could be it.
6. Ohio St (4-0)
   • Well the Buckeyes did it, and while it wasn’t pretty and you could certainly argue ND lost the game more than Ohio St won it, a win is a win. They went on the road and pulled out a W against a very good team, and showed their defense can hold up a little better this year. ND still had 3 trips to FG range that amounted in 0 points, but again, a win is a win. McCord and the offense are still not what we’ve seen in the past, and I think that will catch up to them eventually.
7. Washington (4-0)
   • I bumped Washington up but these 3 upper tier Pac-12 teams are just so hard to judge right now. They all are electric offensively, it’s just hard to nail down which defense is the best of the bunch. Penix has been nails thus far but going to Arizona represents a challenge they haven’t seen this year. De Laura is a legit QB so we’ll get a little better feel on this Husky defense, but the tests will continue to grow down the road.
8. Oregon (4-0)
   • The Ducks shut up Colorado with a 42-6 drubbing, and they look like a legit Playoff contender. They have to go to Washington and Utah, and as I’ve been saying if they can pick one of those off and defend their home field that’s the path to the playoff. The fact is if a Pac-12 team is going to get in they have to win a road game against a top-15 team. Stanford this weekend should be another big win, but Washington is looming out there in Week 7.
9. USC (4-0)
   • The Trojan’s defense is probably the worst of the top teams in the Pac-12 and that’s why I’m not a believer in their playoff hopes. They have to go to Notre Dame and Oregon and also have to play Utah who they’ve struggled with. I can easily see 2 losses, despite having the sure-fire no. 1 pick in Caleb Williams. The offense is electric, but I just don’t think this defense can hold up against the big boys. They go to Colorado and the zoo that is Boulder this weekend, but honestly they shouldn’t be too worried as 21.5 point favorites.
10. Notre Dame (4-1)
    • Well my prediction fell flat, hand up, I was wrong. It was brutal to watch this ND offense get into plus territory 3 different times and wind up with 0 points. A missed FG and 2 4^th down failures cost them. Many will talk about the last drive where they didn’t run to force Ohio St to use their last TO, or the final plays with only 10 on the field, but those decisions to go instead of get points also loomed large. They shot themselves in the foot time after time, and it cost them. I think the Irish are still in the hunt for a playoff spot, they just have to run the table, which isn’t out of the question.
11. Utah (4-0)
    • This Utah defense is one of the best in the Country, but they have to get Rising back and it has to be this week. Going to Oregon St after they lost a tough game is a horrible spot, and to do that with your backup QB is a recipe for disaster. They’ve survived thus far, but they have to have him to win this week. This is one of those tough road games you have to win if you want to be in contention in this Conference. +3.5 looks real nice if Rising is playing, as this defense is elite.
12. LSU (3-1)
    • The Tigers didn’t really show up this weekend but the offense was able to carry them to a tough 34-31 win over Arkansas. The defense was again disappointing, and it’s hard to tell if it’s a bigger problem or they just don’t show up sometimes. Daniels and this offense are electric, but if they want to run the table in the SEC West and contend with Georgia, they have to figure this defense out and do it quickly. They have another test this weekend as they head to Ole Miss to face another great offense.
13. Oklahoma (4-0)
    • Everything is shaping up for an absolutely massive Red River Shootout in Week 6, as the Sooners continue to take care of business. The defense looks much improved and Gabriel is playing well. After last season’s disastrous defense, I didn’t have much hope but so far I’ve been pleasantly surprised. I think they can give Texas all they can handle, and they don’t have much to worry about this weekend with Iowa St.
14. Duke (4-0)
    • Well Duke has a chance to legitimize themselves as National contenders if they can knock off Notre Dame this weekend. This defense is legit, Riley Leonard and this offense is legit, but getting Notre Dame off of that tough loss is horrible timing. I think the Irish come out angry and that’s going to be tough for Duke to overcome. I expect a close game but Duke to lose. That doesn’t mean the Blue Devils are out of the ACC conversation by any means though, and I can legitimately see a 10-2 year.
15. Miami (FL) (4-0)
    • The team nobody is really talking about is Miami, but I think if anyone in the ACC can knock off the Seminoles it’s Miami. Tyler Van Dyke is playing as well as anyone in the Country and frankly the schedule isn’t that tough. They have to go to UNC and FSU, but other than those they’re all pretty easy wins. Win 1 of those road games and the Hurricanes are suddenly playoff contenders? It’s not out of the question.
16. Alabama (3-1)
    • This Alabama team looks more like the teams of old, strong defense and they have to run the ball to score. Milroe can be effective if he’s used as a running threat and then some orchestrated deep balls. He throws a beautiful deep ball, he just can’t read defenses or work through progressions. Run the ball, play action with some deep shots and they can beat most teams. I don’t think we see Bama in the Playoff, but 10-2 is out there, especially with this schedule. They get to beat up on Mississippi St this weekend before heading to Texas A&M, a very dangerous one.
17. Washington St (4-0)
    • Wazzu now has 2 pretty impressive home wins over Wisconsin and Oregon St. They have a tough schedule with trips to UCLA, Oregon and Washington left, but the fact 9-3 is on the table is a testament to Cam Ward and this offense. They are electric and were underrated, and pose a dangerous threat to these top teams looking to sneak into the Playoff.
18. UNC (4-0)
    • So far so good for the Tar Heels but I have less confidence in them than Duke/Miami. Drake Maye and the offense is electric, but the defense is bad. It’s better than last season, but still not great. There are some fun matchups on the docket, but a bye this week keeps them safe from upset 1 more week. They have home tilts with Syracuse and Miami after the bye, so it’s about to get real.
19. Syracuse (4-0)
    • The most underrated team in the Country is this Syracuse squad, as they’ve absolutely dominated everyone they’ve played. Garrett Schrader is playing really well, and they’ll have a ton of eyeballs on them this weekend to show out against Clemson. As 6.5 point home dogs I’m all over the spread, but it’s still a tough W for them to pull off. I think they can win outright, because this Clemson team is just not what we’re used to, and with 2 losses they certainly could be already thinking next year. Orange ML hit it.
20. Ole Miss (3-1)
    • The Rebels are just never good enough to beat elite teams, rinse and repeat. They can move the ball and outscore average and below teams but struggle with good teams like Bama and LSU. They just lost to Bama and now get LSU this weekend, so another loss should be on the docket. They could end up as a 7-win team, with a trip to Georgia still out there and games against Tx A&M and Arkansas. Stock trending down in my opinion, but the offensive ability keeps them at 20.
21. Oregon St (3-1)
    • The Beavers were in a shootout and couldn’t quite hang with Wazzu. It’s hard to punish them much, but the defense giving up 38 makes me lose a little faith. If Cam rising is back I can easily see them dropping a 2^nd game in a row. DJ just wasn’t good enough, despite a dominant O-line he just isn’t elite. They ran the ball well, but Utah is no joke and their defense can shut down Oregon St. Now, if they get Nate Johnson and not Rising, they could steal a very important one Friday night.
22. Florida (3-1)
    • A tough trip to Kentucky is on the docket, but this Florida team really has a chance to cement themselves as the 2^nd best team in the East. I’m not confident they will go to Kentucky and win, but the Wildcats haven’t exactly looked like world beaters. I’m on Kentucky -1.5, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Gators pulled it off. I just can’t trust Mertz on the road, and Stoops is a great coach. Tough one for Florida, but if they are a top-25 team this is one they should nab.
23. Mizzou (4-0)
    • I still don’t know that I fully believe in Mizzou but they’re 4-0 with a huge W over K-State. They had a clear let down spot game after the big win and they took care of business against Memphis too, so they clearly deserve to be here. Again, going to Vandy is one you have to have if you’re a top-25 team, but the Mizzou of old could lose this one. Upset alert no doubt.
24. Kansas (4-0)
    • Kansas has been really impressive this year, but a trip to Austin Texas is not what you want. They aren’t good enough defensively to beat this Texas team, but you hope they hang around and score with Texas if they really are a top-25 team. If they get blown out they will drop from these rankings, but I think Daniels and this offense can put up some points and hang around.
25. Wisconsin (3-1)
    • So the road loss to Wazzu is suddenly looking much better as time is moving on, and a road demolishing of Purdue has given me the confidence back in the Badgers. I had them as the West champs in preseason, but questioned it after that early loss. No more, this running attack is elite and the defense has a ton of playmakers on it. I’m not saying they’re going to beat Ohio St in Madison at the end of October, but that’s going to be a fun one.

1. Georgia (3-0)
   • At halftime this week most of the College Football world was shocked at what they were witnessing as the Dawgs were down 14-3 at home to S. Carolina. However, the second half version of Georgia that we saw was absolutely worthy of a #1 ranking, as they smushed the Gamecocks 21-0. It certainly made you pump the brakes a little and gave the rest of the Country some hope that the gap is much smaller than it has been in the past though. The offense isn’t as explosive, and Spencer Sanders was able to put up some numbers on this D. They have another cupcake with UAB up next, so for now they’re still you’re #1 for the foreseeable future.  
2. Michigan (3-0)
   • If the Wolverines had just played anyone with a pulse they may have an argument for #1 after Georgia played around with S. Carolina this weekend. But, alas, they have played nobody and frankly seem to be sleep walking through these games. JJ McCarthy had 3 picks against a bad Bowling Green team so they certainly have some question marks. The schedule is laughably easy though, with Rutgers, Minnesota, Nebraska, IU, Sparty and Purdue the next 6 games. They will be 9-0 on Nov. 11^th when they head to Happy Valley. That’s honestly when the season starts for Michigan.
3. Notre Dame (4-0)
   • The Irish started slow but with the huge matchup with Ohio St looming that’s not shocking. They dominated in the end a bad CMU team. This is the most balanced team in the Country, with a dominant running game and a QB that is putting up monster numbers as he has in his past. Hartman has a chance this weekend to put himself at the top of the Heisman race if he can lead ND to a W over the Buckeyes. This is a massive game that I have been predicting ND to win the whole year, so it’s about to get real.
4. Florida St (3-0)
   • The Seminoles barely survived a trip to a really bad BC team but at the end of the day a win is a win. Sometimes you don’t bring your best against bad competition, but hopefully this was a learning lesson that didn’t cost them too much. They have a massive game @ Clemson on Saturday, so of course the look ahead factor was there but they escaped and that’s all that matters. Now they get a chance to cement themselves as a top-5 team if they can go to Clemson and pull out a win.  
5. Penn St (3-0)
   • It was ugly but Penn St went on the road and got a Conference win over Illinois who is slightly above average at best. Allar didn’t look great for the 1^st time this year, but the defense was rock solid and as they continue to look like one of the more complete teams in the Country. Allar can beat you, the running backs can torch you and the defense is shutting people down. They have Iowa this weekend in Happy Valley who they should handle, and a couple more cupcakes before they head to Columbus to really see how they stack up.
6. Texas (3-0)
   • It was a sleepy performance from the Longhorns against Wyoming but they pulled away late and ultimately we won’t remember this game at all. You expect a college team to have a letdown after a massive win, but to still come away with a comfy win is a great sign these Longhorns belong in the elite category. They are massive favorites this weekend @ Baylor, who has struggled thus far including a loss to Texas St so anything but a comfy W would be a disappointment for this Texas team.  
7. USC (3-0)
   • A bye week doesn’t tell us anything obviously, but this weekend represents a tiny step up in competition with Arizona St. Now, the Sun Devils have looked pretty rough, but it’s still a Conference opponent on the road. The line just shocked me but 33.5 it is, so clearly this one should be over quickly once again. The real tests start the following week, as they get into the meat of their Pac-12 schedule by heading the circus that is Boulder, CO.
8. Oregon (3-0)
   • The Ducks got another comfy win and now things get fun again as they welcome Deion Sanders and Colorado to Eugene on Saturday. This one should be a shootout, as the line is 71.5 and surprisingly Oregon is favored by 3 touchdowns over a ranked team. Clearly the books aren’t buying the Buffs hype, but Bo Nix and Co. are going to need to put up a ton of points to win by that much I imagine. Sanders is a legit QB and Colorado has legit weapons, so this will be a fun measuring stick game for a couple of contenders in the Pac-12.
9. Washington (3-0)
   • Washington quietly is making a convincing argument for the Pac-12 favorite as Michael Penix Jr looks incredible and you could argue they have the best defense besides Utah in the Conference. They went to East Lansing and absolutely punked Sparty. Washington has 5 games left against ranked opponents, but this weekend they get an ok Cal team at home. Should be another W in dominant fashion.
10. Ohio St (3-0)
    • Well the Buckeyes finally showed their explosiveness in their mashing of W. Kentucky, but forgive me for not being overly impressed. W. Kentucky has a horrible defense, but nonetheless it at least showed McCord has some firepower. I am going to continue to ride the ND train, and I’ve already put my bets in for both the +3.5 and ML on the Irish. I don’t think this team has the beef in the interior to slow Etienne down, and then you have the play action over the top with Hartman slinging it as well as anyone right now. They will need McCord to play out of his mind to win this game.
11. Utah (3-0)
    • I continue to assume Rising will be back at QB but I’m not sure they belong this high without him. They get a dangerous UCLA team this weekend and without Rising I’m not sure if this offense has the firepower to keep up. So far they’ve been able to ride their defense and running game, but UCLA is dangerous. If I’m a Ute fan I’m real nervous is Rising is ruled out once again. If he’s back though I’ll take the Utes with ease.
12. LSU (2-1)
    • LSU looks like the clear favorite in the West right now as they went to Starkville and pummeled Mississippi St. They left zero questions, as they dominated in every aspect the entire game. The defense looks good, and the Jayden Daniels-Malik Nabers connection is firing. They welcome an Arkansas team who is reeling after a home loss to BYU so things should continue to look very good for a sleeping giant in the SEC. With Georgia looking less dominant and Bama spiriling, you can envision a run from LSU that takes them to 12-1 and the CFP.
13. Oklahoma (3-0)
    • The Sooners are finally gaining my respect, as the defense looks much improved and offensively Dillon Gabriel is playing incredibly well. They haven’t had a very tough stretch but they are 3-0 only allowing 28 points total in those 3. They go to Cincy who just lost to Miami (Oh) so I don’t expect this train to slow down anytime soon. We need the red river shootout in a couple weeks to have both teams undefeated, just have to take care of business and the whole sports world will be tuned in.
14. Oregon St (3-0)
    • Again the Beavers won with ease and they continue to look dangerous as they enter Pac-12 play. DJ Uiagalelei has looked pretty good thus far, but he’ll have to be at his best this weekend as they head to Wazzu. Cam Ward and the Cougar offense have been dialed in and have already knocked off Wisconsin so this is a real litmus test for the Beavers to find out how legitimate they are as contenders.  
15. Ole Miss (3-0)
    • The Rebels continue to roll along and Jackson Dart is looking the part, but this weekend represents by far the biggest challenge of the season. If they truly are a top-15 team they can go to Tuscaloosa and give Alabama everything they can handle. Obviously Texas was already able to go there and win, but I’m not sure Ole Miss has quite enough defensive ability to make things difficult for Milroe. Alabama obviously hasn’t looked great on offense though, so if Dart and this O-line can control things on that side, it’s anybody’s ball game. That’s all you can ask for if you’re an Ole Miss fan.
16. Duke (3-0)
    • The Dukies are the quietest surprise team of the season, and while Colorado and Deion are getting all of the attention, I don’t think there’s been a more impressive start in the Country than what Duke has done thus far. Riley Leonard looks much improved, and the defense has been rock solid. They get 0-3 Uconn this weekend so they should stroll to 4-0 and are a legit contender in the ACC, which looks like a battle for who gets to play FSU in the title game.
17. Miami (FL) (3-0)
    • Speaking of the ACC, the Hurricanes have also been impressive to start, with Tyler Van Dyke playing much better this year and an improvement frankly at all levels. They get one last cupcake with Temple this weekend and then GA Tech next weekend, so we should see them cruise to 5-0. That would set them up with a massive road test with North Carolina.  
18. Alabama (2-1)
    • The Tide drop for me this week after that egg in South Florida, but I really think Milroe is the best they have, at least he can make some plays with his legs. There’s more wrong here than many thought, as the O-line has problems as they’re giving up sacks and can’t run the ball. The defense looks good, but thus far I’ve been vindicated, this isn’t the Alabama of old, and 18 frankly may be too high. But they get Ole Miss in Tuscaloosa, so if there’s ever a time for a bounce back this is it.
19. Colorado (3-0)
    • The brakes were pumped a little on the Colorado hype train when they had to come from behind in dramatic fashion to beat Colorado St in dramatic fashion. It’s a rivalry game so crazy things can happen, but with Travis Hunter getting hurt and them struggling so much in the trenches, I don’t see them winning at Oregon this week. Sanders is legit and they’ll put up points, but Bo Nix may drop 50+ on em.
20. UNC (3-0)
    • The Tar Heels won with ease over Minnesota on Saturday, in what was a disrespectful 7.5 point spread if you’d seen the two teams play. Drake Maye continues to play well other than the INT’s, but the defense has had its moments this year where it looks improved. They play @ Pitt this weekend who has looked awful to begin the year, so anything but 4-0 is a massive disappointment.
21. Syracuse (3-0)
    • The Orange only got 2 votes in the AP poll, but if you’ve watched this team play they look really dangerous with Garrett Shrader playing the way he is. Through their first 2 games they outscored opponents 113-7 and then went on the road and beat a decent Purdue team by 15 points. Shrader has been electric, with almost 1,000 combined passing and rushing yards thru 3 and 10 TD’s. People need to stop sleeping on the Orange, they are a legit contender in the ACC. They get Army this weekend so 4-0 is chalked up, then they get Clemson, UNC and FSU so it’s about to get real.
22. Iowa (3-0)
    • Well it’s been a fun start to the season for Iowa but now they have to go to Happy Valley and play an elite Penn St team. Nobody is really expecting this to be a close game, but if their defense can give Allar problems they could have a shot. I still think with McNamara they have more firepower on offense, not hard when last year’s team is the measuring stick, but a 15 point spread is an awful lot with this defense. If they put up a fight they’ll probably hang in this top-25.
23. Florida (2-1)
    • Very impressive weekend for the Gators, as they absolutely shit pumped Tennessee in the Swamp (as you profited from if you’re tailing). Now loosing the 1^st game with Mertz on the road in Utah looks much less rough. If they can run the ball like that with those 2 backs and the defense keeps flying around, they have a shot to pick some people off. They have a cupcake this weekend, but then they go to Kentucky in a game they have to win if they truly are a top-20 ish team.
24. Mizzou (3-0)
    • 2^nd biggest win of the weekend has to go to Mizzou, as they walked off K-State with a 61 yard FG to cap off an electric W. I’m not totally convinced they’re a top-25 team, but they played like it on Saturday so they get to be here this week. Brady Cook had a really good game against a pretty good K-State defense and the Luther Burden III was one of the better WR’s I’ve seen all season. Cook is hobbled though and they get a 3-0 Memphis team on Saturday who looks feisty. It could be short lived, but they deserve it nonetheless after that huge W.
25. Kansas (3-0)
    • I’m still riding with Kansas even though they kind of slept walked through Nevada on Saturday. I still think this is an electric offense with Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal running the show. The defense is awful, but in the Big 12 they don’t have many dominant defenses so they are going to just get in shootouts and hope they can get it done. One of those is probably going to be Saturday as they host BYU. The Cougars just went to Arkansas and won, so I’m a little surprised Kansas is an 8.5 point favorite, but just take the over 54.5 and enjoy a fun one.

1. Georgia (2-0)
   • We know the Bulldogs are really good, but nothing about their 1st two games really tells us how good they can be this year with Carson Beck. They welcome their 1st Power 5 opponent this weekend with South Carolina, albeit one that looked really bad in its lone test in their loss to UNC. I expect Georgia to dominate the game, but if the Gamecocks hang around we may be given some hope that the rest of the field has a shot to dethrone the back-to-back champs.
2. Michigan (2-0)
   • This is the same paragraph as above, except they have another cupcake opponent with Bowling Green coming in. The big question with Michigan really isn’t how good they are, we know who they are, it’s can they take the next step against the country’s elite teams not named Ohio St. We won’t have answers to that for a good while.
3. Florida St (2-0)
   • The Noles are on a short list of teams who have shined early in the season. They look like the class of the ACC and are a clear favorite to get into the Playoff. They should dominate against a bad BC team this weekend to set up a massive trip to Clemson Week 4. That was a game everyone had circled on the calendar pre-season, but even with Clemson’s early season blunder, they will be playing to keep their hopes alive so that game is still massive. Potential look ahead spot this weekend, but a true contender would go into BC and dominate, so that’ll be something to watch.
4. Notre Dame (3-0)
   • The Irish continue to affirm my belief that they will beat Ohio St and USC and get into the Playoff. They dominated a decent NC State team on the road, showcasing how difficult to stop offensively they are going to be with Sam Hartman running the offense. They dominate on the ground with Estime behind this elite O-line and are built to beat teams who are weak in the trenches…ie Ohio St and USC. I can’t wait for Week 4 when they host the Buckeyes.
5. Penn St (2-0)
   • Drew Allar looks the part so far, but this weekend represents the exact sort of game Penn St would struggle with in the past. If the Nittany Lions are who we think they are they should go into Illinois and win comfortably. They are 14.5 point favorites, good teams win, great teams cover. If they think they can beat Ohio State and Michigan, you have to handle your business against a team like Illinois on the road. Very intriguing game from a measuring stick standpoint.
6. Texas (2-0)
   • Texas is back. It’s been the question every year for the past decade or more, but going on the road and beating Alabama should put this question to rest. Now, many have the Longhorns higher, but Bama is not as impressive to me as others, and I think the teams I have above Texas right now would also be able to handle the Tide. It’s a great win, and positions them well to get into the playoff, especially since they get K-State and Oklahoma at home.
7. USC (2-0)
   • The defense has looked a little better these last couple of weeks and man does Caleb Williams look fantastic. It’s hard to gauge just how much of a problem the defense is going to be for them, but the Pac-12 is going to test them week after week, so we are going to find out in short order. It’s an off week for the Trojans, but things will start heating up soon.
8. Oregon (2-0)
   • By the skin of their teeth the Ducks were able to steal a dub from Lubbock this past weekend in a game that they didn’t play their best. Texas Tech is a good team and was hungry after a surprising loss, so to take their best shot and grab a road W was huge. The Ducks still have 6 ranked teams left on the schedule, so there are still land mines everywhere on the schedule. They get one last reprieve with Hawaii this weekend, but after that the madness will begin with Colorado coming to Eugene.
9. Washington (2-0)
   • Michael Penix Jr and this offense have been electric to start the season, and they are certainly right there with USC and Oregon at the top of this Conference. You could poll 100 people and I bet it would be close to a 3-way tie in terms of the top Pac-12 team so it’s going to be fascinating to watch it all play out. This week they have a road visit to East Lansing, who is down and without their HC, so I would expect another big victory heading into the Conference slate.
10. Ohio St (2-0)
    • I am still unimpressed with Kyle McCord and this offense, but they are 2-0 and they have the skill position guys to be elite. They get W. Kentucky this weekend to beat up on and try and build some rhythm on that side and they need to do so in a hurry because they’re heading to Notre Dame next week. So far I have no confidence these Buckeyes can go into South Bend and beat the Irish, and I doubt a game against W. Kentucky will allow me to feel any better.
11. Utah (2-0)
    • 2-0 against Power-5 teams without your starting QB is something to be very excited about, and while the Utes aren’t the flashiest team in the Pac-12, they should enter the Conference slate with as good a chance as anyone as long as Rising comes back healthy. They should have an easy W with Weber St coming to town this Saturday and then the fun begins. The Utes are a sleeping giant in the Pac-12 right now.
12. LSU (1-1)
    • Listen, the Tigers were written off with a game 1 loss to Florida St, but what it really amounts to? A loss to an elite team on a neutral site. I think LSU should still be the favorite out of the West in the SEC, but Alabama is right there as well. We are going to find out this weekend just how accurate that is as they head to Mississippi St, who isn’t great but represents a road test that can be used as a decent measuring stick game. An easy win gives you confidence they can be a factor come November.
13. Alabama (1-1)
    • Milroe was exposed as I assumed he would be, and Alabama lost at home to Texas which all but eliminated them from Playoff contention. Do you really think that offense can run the table in the SEC? Ole Miss, Texas A&M and LSU all look poised to give the Tide a rough time, and let’s not forget Tennessee. And even if they win all of those tough tests, they would need to get through Georgia in the SEC title game as well, so I just don’t see them in the Playoff this year, or even as a top-10 team.
14. Kansas St (2-0)
    • The Wildcats are as under the radar as it gets, but the defending Big 12 champs are the clear no. 2 in the Big 12 standing in the way of Texas. Will Howard is playing really well and I’ll say it til I’m blue in the face, this team is as tough and well coached as you’ll find in College Football. They get an interesting test @ Mizzou this weekend, and while I expect them to win the spread has fallen from 5.5 to 3.5 so there’s a lot of folks out there expecting a dog fight. I’m on the -3.5.
15. Oregon St (2-0)
    • Quietly the Beavers are dominating the way that a top-15 team should be, and they’ll get another chance to do so this weekend with San Diego St in town. As I’ve mentioned the Pac-12 is a gauntlet this year, but with DJ at QB and this dominant running game Oregon St is going to be no fun for the top dogs this year. I don’t think they can win the Pac-12 but they’ll play spoiler no doubt.
16. Ole Miss (2-0)
    • Pretty good win @ Tulane for Ole Miss this weekend but it was still kind of ugly without the starting QB for Tulane. Jackson Dart and the offense look pretty good, but you’d expect better honestly against a not so great Tulane D. I think the Rebels are still a step behind Bama and LSU in the West, but they get a chance at both and in a hurry as they go to Tuscaloosa Week 4 and host LSU week 5. They could easily be sitting 3-2 in a couple of weeks, but if they can pick off one of those they may have a shot at winning the West.
17. Colorado (2-0)
    • The story of the season obviously is Colorado and it’s been a ton of fun watching them pull this turnaround off. They have joined the 2^nd tier in the Pac-12 in my opinion, and in a couple of weeks USC has to travel to Colorado which will be one of the most watched game of the season. Sanders is legit at QB and they have legit weapons all around him. The questions are on Defense and the O-line is not good. I think those things hold them back but man, the win total was 3.5 and they look like an 8 or 9 win team.
18. Tennessee (2-0)
    • I think the Vols are going to be in real trouble heading to Gainesville this weekend, and I really don’t think Milton and this offense is as elite as last year. Florida looked not great week 1 @ Utah, but that’s a great defense, the Vols…not so much. I dropped Tennessee this week after they struggled with Austin Peay, and maybe it was a look ahead spot, but great teams don’t play with their food like that. Take the Gators +6.5 at the very least.
19. Oklahoma (2-0)
    • I’m not sure what to think of the Sooners thus far, the defense might be better? But is the offense not as great? I’m on a wait and see plan with this group, and I don’t think my questions are going to be answered when they go to Tulsa this Saturday. We’ll find out who they really are once Big 12 play gets underway.
20. Duke (2-0)
    • A huge win over Clemson obviously catapulted Duke into the rankings and they didn’t have a let down this past week as they put it to Lafayette. They get Northwestern this weekend, who they should beat with ease, and then UConn after that. They should be 4-0 when the mighty Notre Dame comes to Durham in a spot they can prove they really do belong on this list of great teams.
21. Miami (FL) (2-0)
    • Massive win for Cristobal and Miami as they got back to being a relevant program by giving it to Texas A&M. Tyler Van Dyke looked much improved and they look like a real contender in the ACC, obviously a step behind Florida St but they should be right there with Duke/UNC/Clemson fighting to get to an ACC championship game. They get an easy one with Bethune this weekend to come down off the high of this past weekend.
22. UNC (2-0)
    • The Tar Heels barely escaped App St after a huge win over South Carolina to avoid another crushing loss early in the season. We thought the defense was improved but we’re now looking at inconsistent as a descriptor. The good news is they get a pathetic Minnesota offense in Raleigh Saturday, so I would expect a much better defensive performance. Drake Maye needs to take care of the ball if they want to avoid another dog fight, the Golden Gopher have a stout D.
23. UCF (2-0)
    • Listen, did UCF look great against Boise St this weekend? Absolutely not, but they pulled out a win on a cross-country trip and ultimately I think it was a great building block. They get another easy one with Villanova coming in before the Big 12 season kicks off. Nobody is going to want to go to Orlando this year, and they look the part of a team that’s going to pick someone off nobody expects them to.
24. Iowa (2-0)
    • Iowa is Iowa, they just win games. It’s ugly as can be, but they’re 2-0 and well on their way to 3-0. They play great D, and with McNamara can at least threaten a little more this year on Offense. The Big Ten West is wide open with Wisconsin and Illinois both dropping games to unranked Power-5 teams early, so the Hawkeyes are quietly well positioned to play in a Conference championship game.
25. Kansas (2-0)
    • Kansas picked up a really nice win over Illinois this past weekend in convincing fashion. With Daniels healthy at QB they are electric on that side, and there’s some early signs the defense has taken a step in the right direction. If they can just keep Daniels healthy they have legit spoiler potential in the Big 12. They get Oklahoma and K-State at home, with Texas on the road. 9 or 10 wins is well within reach.