*Most Recent Update Here* Bubble Watch
Welcome to the most in-depth and comprehensive March Madness Bubble Watch on the internet, at least that I’m aware of, and please feel free to burst my bubble and make me aware of a better one if it’s out there. It can be a confusing task to try and figure out where your favorite team might stack up and what they need to do the rest of the season to be dancing. Hell even as a self-proclaimed bracketologist myself I get lost in the weeds sometimes, so maybe this column is more of a cathartic release and organizational tool for me than it is a source of joy for you but hey, I appreciate you nonetheless. Every fan just wants to know there’s a chance, a little drop of hope, a path to watching their team in the NCAA tournament. Well, we have over 60 teams on the 1st watch, all vying for the at-large bids, so needless to say hope abounds as we enter February. It has once again been a wild season up to this point as there is seemingly no dominant teams this season, which some may argue is not so wild these days as it may just be the new normal in college hoops. March figures to be just as wild and unpredictable as ever, but what we can’t allow to be wild and unpredictable is Selection Sunday, and that’s why we’re all here right? I’m going to assign teams to 3 groups – Locks, On the Right Track and Teetering. Any team left out is not even on the radar, so maybe 4 groups for you sticklers out there. The “Locks” are basically teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in. The “On the Right Track” group are teams who will need to meltdown in order to not get in, but we’ve all seen a late season meltdown or two. Generally they are probably on the 6-7 line or better and have a significant number of Q1 wins and positive momentum sending them in the right direction. Lastly the “Teetering” group, I’m sure at this point you can figure it out but nevertheless, these could be teams on the right side of the bubble who just need to hold serve, or those teams who are on the outside looking in that I still see a legitimate path to getting in. For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (taken from ESPN’s BPI) and a final category Tournament Wins (TW’s) (which will be the total number of wins against teams in the projected field, as calculated by me). Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 68 teams on the first watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 1/29. Check out my current bracket projection here.
Bubble Breakdown:
Total Bids: 68
1-bid conferences: 23
Locks: 7
Bids Left: 38
Bubble: 59
–ACC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Duke: 15-4 (5-2) — Q1: (4-1) Q2: (0-3) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (92) TW’s (3)
I think most cbb fans would look at this Duke team right now and think, of course they’re safe, and in the end they’d probably be correct. However, when you take a look at this resumé it’s actually pretty ugly. They do have the good non-con wins over Baylor and Michigan St, but that 0-3 record in Q2 is pretty gross, and the 92 SOS is not going to help much. Add in the fact that the ACC once again doesn’t offer up much in terms of resumé builders and you could envision a world where they drop a couple more games to teams they shouldn’t and all of a sudden they could find themselves on the bubble. They have 5-6 Q1 chances left, with all but the UNC game in Durham on the road. I’m just saying there’s a chance, because there’s a world where they go 0-5 in those road games and all of a sudden they could be like 5-9 in Q1-2 games. This is a talented group, but the youth has reared its ugly head several times already, so this is still a situation worth monitoring, especially when this week offers up trips to Blacksburg and then Chapel Hill. 0-2 this week and they’re sitting at 4-6 in Q1-2 games…
Clemson: 13-6 (3-5) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (15) TW’s (4)
Clemson got off to a really hot start amassing an 11-1 record with 4 wins over teams I’m currently projecting in the field. Since then it’s been the polar opposite, going 2-5 including a loss at home to Georgia Tech. They have really struggled to defend in this stretch, allowing over 80 ppg in those 5 losses after not allowing a single opponent to hit 80 in their first 12 games. At some point that will have to be remedied, and they have very few Q1 opportunities to correct for this down the stretch in the ACC. They have just 5 road games left and only 2 of them will likely land in Q1. Drop both of those (UNC/Wake Forest) and all of a sudden they’re just 3-7 in Q1 and any additional loss the rest of the way is going to be a bad one. So, unless they can finish 10-2 to finish up the year it’s likely going to get a little dicey for Clemson. That non-con group of wins might be enough to keep them in, but if they do end up dropping a couple of stinkers we could be writing about Clemson all the way up to Selection Sunday.
Teetering:
Miami (FL): 14-6 (5-4) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (7-1) SOS: (81) TW’s (1)
The Hurricanes are right on the cusp of the Last 4 In and the First 4 Out as I’m writing this. I have them out, some have them in, but either way they have some work to do if they want to feel comfortable come Selection Sunday. They have just 1 high quality win, at home v Clemson, and a few other good wins like neutral court wins over K-State/Georgia. The issue more lies with the horrific losses, most notably at home v Louisville, who might be the worst power 5 team in the Country. The SOS is bad, the 2 Q3/4 losses are awful, but 6-4 in Q1/2 games is where they will hang their hat. What they face upcoming is as daunting of a schedule as you can get in the ACC, with their next 7 games all going to be Q1/2 games. That screams opportunity for bubble teams, and while they may drop a few, it gives them a chance to knock off teams like Duke/UNC at home. For now, they go to a desperate N.C. State team this week followed by VA Tech at home. 2-0 and they would likely get back into the field. This one will be a fun one to monitor.
Virginia Tech: 13-7 (5-4) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (31) TW’s (3)
These ACC resumé’s are difficult to separate, but for the bubble teams I have the Hokies right near the top as they have more solid wins, especially the W over Iowa St which is aging like fine wine. They played a tough non-conference schedule, playing 5 projected tourney teams, going 2-3. They should get credit for the big wins they have, but being just 4-7 in Q1/2 games, with Q2 being below .500 is very meh. They’re right on the doorstep, and with the resumé being sqeaky clean on the back-end, they just need a few more big wins to flip the script. Lucky for them, here come the Dukies, as they host Duke tonight. They also head to Miami later on this week, so going 1-1 in those would make some headway, but the win over Duke would be much bigger. It’s all about capitalizing and not stepping on a land mine along the way, easy right?
Syracuse: 13-6 (5-4) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS: (26) TW’s (0)
The Orange are in a peculiar position, as they’ve really handled their business for the most part this season against teams they should beat, going 12-1 in Q2-4 games. It’s just that pesky idea that in order to be considered a good team, you have to win a few games against other good teams. Their best win to date is a neutral court W over Oregon, followed by a win @ Pitt. That’s not going to be enough to get them in the field. The good news is they have some opportunities down the road, with both UNC and Clemson coming to town in February, as well as an upcoming road game against fellow bubble team Wake Forest. Those are giant opportunities for them to try and work their way into the field, but in the ACC there are land mines around every corner, none bigger than the upcoming trip to a feisty BC team. I have 10 ACC teams on the watch, at least half of which I would expect to miss the dance, so it’s going to be wild last 6 weeks as we watch these teams cannibalize each other.
Wake Forest: 13-6 (5-3) — Q1: (0-2) Q2: (5-4) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (69) TW’s (0)
Steve Forbes brought a bunch of talent to this team in the off-season, notably 2 Gonzaga transfer Hunter Sallis and Efton Reid, so I had some hope they’d be a tourney team this year. As of now, that’s not looking great as they have beaten 0 teams I’m projecting in as of now and have 0 Q1 wins. At some point you have to beat somebody, and a la Syracuse that’s their main issue at the moment. They have a pretty clean resumé other than the lack of wins, so down the stretch it’s all going to be about capitalizing on those Q1 opportunities as they present themselves. This week they go to Pitt, which is barely qualifying as Q1 but is Q1 nonetheless. Win that and then come back home and beat Syracuse and all of a sudden you’re pushing toward the top of the first team’s out group. It’s going to take some work, but the path is there.
Virginia: 15-5 (6-3) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (90) TW’s (1)
Tony Bennett and co. have been playing much better as of late, winners of 4 straight, but it has been against pretty weak competition in the ACC. They can hang their hat on 1 win against another bubble team Texas A&M right now, that’s really about it. The good news for them is they still have Clemson/UNC/Duke left on the schedule, so the opportunities are out there, they just need to capitalize. It’s essentially the same scenario as Wake/Syracuse, clean resumé just lack the wins to be able to get in the dance. If I have confidence in any of these teams to actually avoid bad losses and maybe steal a big win or 2 it’s a team led by Tony Bennett, but we’re talking about a team that’s 179th in offensive efficiency right now so I’m not sure we can ever be very confident. This week it’s another cupcake with ND at home, and then a trip to Clemson in what is a massive opportunity. Win that and the tide will begin to turn, but a loss will leave them in the exact same position.
N.C. State: 13-7 (5-4) — Q1: (0-5) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (63) TW’s (0)
I feel like I’m beating a dead horse here in the ACC but for crying out loud nobody in this Conference can win a Q1 game. NC State, just like Virginia/Syracuse/Wake needs to stack up some big wins as going 10-0 in Q3/4 to inflate your record isn’t going to get it done. The Wolfpack are pretty far down the bubble list if we’re just being straight up, as 3-7 in Q1/2 is one of the weaker records on the watch, but what we do here is outline the path, if it exists. The good news is 0 bad losses, and being above .500 in Q2 is solid. It’s time to start hunting those Q1 games and taking advantage, and it’s going to take more than 1, maybe even more than 2. They won’t have an opportunity this week, but that doesn’t mean you can just let your guard down and blow the whole thing up. Gotta take care of business at home v Miami and Georgia Tech. Drop either one of those and we may not be able to carve out a path for this group. Big week to just survive and advance.
Florida St: 12-8 (6-3) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (2-3) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (32) TW’s (0)
Finally something unique in this Conference resumé wise, as the Seminoles have what is quite possibly the wildest one on the watch. We have a team that’s 6-5 in Q1/2 games but just 2-3 in Q3 games, strange. But even more strange is they’ve been able to amass 6 Q1/2 wins without beating a single team in the projected field. It’s going to take a hell of a run by these Seminoles to get themselves into the dance, but the fact they are 6-2 in their last 8 games, losing to UNC/Clemson, has given me hope that the run is in there. This week they go to Louisville and BC, talk about land mines, but if they survive that and are 8-3 in the ACC they are very much still alive. They can afford 0 bad losses the rest of the way, and will have the home game v Duke circled on their calendar in mid-February. Don’t get too excited Seminole fans, but just know, there’s a path.
–Big Ten–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Wisconsin: 16-4 (8-1) — Q1: (5-3) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (6) TW’s (5)
It would take an absolute collapse in the final 11 games for Wisconsin to not make the tournament, but let’s remember this team started 11-2 last year only to finish 4-12 the rest of the way. Of course, I know they’re much improved this season over last, thanks to the addition of AJ Storr. I’m just holding off 1 more week because there’s a world where they go to Nebraska and lose and then they host Purdue, which will be a heavyweight fight. Obviously, going 0-2 in those games isn’t going to send them down to the actual bubble conversation, but all of a sudden the idea of a collapse could start to creep in. After that they have 2 more road games, so it’s not an extreme idea to think we could be sitting here in 2 weeks having watched Wisconsin lose 4 in a row. In reality, I don’t think that’s going to happen, but what fun would it be to just lock em up and forget about em. Gotta make them earn it this early.
Illinois: 15-5 (6-3) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (41) TW’s (3)
The Illini are sitting in a pretty good spot at this point, with just 1 blemish on the resumé and a couple of top notch wins over FAU and Michigan St. Terrance Shannon Jr is back as well, so they’re at full strength the rest of the way and seem like the clear 3rd best team in the Big Ten. I don’t see them in much danger to be missing the tourney, but with 11 games left anything is possible. They go to a struggling Ohio St team and then host Nebraska, so a 2-0 week would likely be exactly what we need to just lock this one up. Similar to Wisconsin, we’ll make them earn that lock status, but I would feel fairly confident as an Illinois fan, as they should be thinking more about how deep of a run this talented group can go on.
Northwestern: 15-5 (6-3) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-1) SOS: (42) TW’s (4)
The Wildcats aren’t getting the love that I think they deserve Nationally, as the consensus has them as a 10 seed right now, but I have them on the 7 line with those 4 massive wins. I get they lost a stinker to Chicago St, but they now have wins over Purdue/Illinois/Dayton who are all on the 5 seed line or better. I won’t go in depth as to why I think folks such as Lunardi are off base here, but having them below Sparty, for example, is just absurd…look a the resumé yourself. I think Boo Buie and company are well on their way to be dancing in what would be back-to-back years for the first time under coach Collins. Give the Wildcats some love people, they’ve surely earned it at this point. Of course, I wouldn’t be being fair if I didn’t mention they could fall apart, and with 2 Conference road games this week I could be eating my words this time next week. They’ll lose to Purdue, but if they are who I think they are they’ll bounce back and win in Minnesota.
Teetering:
Nebraska: 15-6 (5-5) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (48) TW’s (3)
I have Nebraska on the right side of things as of now, but the blowout losses on the road are beginning to get concerning. They have some massive wins at home, including the trophy win over Purdue, but the fact they can’t win on the road could come back to haunt them. Regardless, they have 3 Q1 wins and have a pretty clean resumé aside from the below .500 record in Q2 games. They are just a couple of losses away from getting overtaken though, so they still need to take care of business to stay in good position. This week they have a massive opportunity with Wisconsin coming to town. Win that and that’s just another step closer to getting to their first tourney since 2014. A home loss though followed by what is almost assuredly a loss @ Illinois and things will get real dicey for the Cornhuskers.
Michigan St: 12-8 (4-5) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (8) TW’s (1)
Thanks to the metrics everyone is convinced this Michigan St team is a lot better than their resumé suggests. Listen, I’m as big a Tom Izzo fan as there is, but we’re talking about a team that is just 4-8 in Q1/2 games – Wake Forest is 5-6 people. I’m not suggesting Sparty should fall below Wake Forest right now in the bubble, I have them in the field, all I’m saying is 1 win over Baylor shouldn’t just punch their ticket. At some point that 2-7 Q1 number should start to tell us something. I understand the SOS is very strong, but at some point you do have to start winning games to earn what folks like Lunardi are giving them (7 seed). They have just 1 home game left that will fall as Q1, Illinois, the rest of the opportunities are going to be on the road (where they’re just 1-4 on the year). This week is pretty easy with Michigan/Maryland at home. Those 2 are must-win games that really don’t help the resumé much. Sparty is in more danger than you think folks.
Indiana: 12-8 (4-5) — Q1: (0-7) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (18) TW’s (0)
The Hoosiers probably shouldn’t even be on the watch at this stage, but the resumé is so squeaky clean I just can’t help but see a path. They have lost 3 in a row now to the top-3 teams in the Conference, nothing to be embarrassed over. Their issue is much like the group of ACC teams, no big time wins. The opportunity for those wins abound though and the 12-1 record outside of Q1 has to keep you alive a little longer. They still get Wisconsin and Michigan St at home, plus several more Q2 home games left. They could in theory rack up 5 or 6 more Q1/2 wins down the stretch if they just win their home games. It starts this week with Iowa and Penn St, with the former being a Q2 opportunity. 14-8 and you’re still alive, barely a pulse, but still alive nonetheless. They certainly have the talent to go on a run down the stretch, but it’s nut up or shut up time for IU.
Maryland: 13-8 (5-5) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (3-2) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (55) TW’s (2)
This one is more of a hunch, as the resumé probably doesn’t deserve to be on the watch but I can’t help it when I see the talent on this team and think they have a run in them. The good news is they have 2 very good wins on the road v Illinois and Iowa plus a home win v Nebraska. The main reason for my confidence is those 3 wins also happen to be their previous 3 wins, so momentum is building as they try and overcome the horrific non-conference losses to Davidson and UAB. They have a long way to go, but similar to IU the schedule presents them with a lot of opportunities to really stack up some quality wins. They have to be damn near perfect, but the path is there and it starts with a trip to Sparty this weekend. While a loss there won’t kill them, it certainly makes the walls start to close in on them, as they may only be able to afford a couple losses the rest of the way.
–Big 12–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Texas Tech: 16-3 (5-1) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (73) TW’s (3)
The Red Raiders are the surprise of the season, as they sit atop the Big 12 standings a third of the way through, and now sit with 3 Q1 wins and zero bad losses. Grant McCasland has been a revelation and via the transfer portal has built a dangerous team from the ashes. Similar to Kansas, they feel as if they’re just 1 big win away from being able to just lock up and move on. They have a much weaker non-conference schedule though, and while they don’t have any bad losses, just 5 Q1/2 wins is just a little too low to punch the ticket just yet. The great thing for them is the Big 12 is the land of opportunity, as their remaining schedule has at least 9 more Q1/2 opportunities, so just racking up a couple more should do the trick. Of course, if they collapse and go 0-9 in those games then it’s going to look pretty rough. Nothing has suggested they will do that, but we’ll make them solidify themselves just a bit more before moving on. They go to TCU and then host Cincy. 2-0 is an obvious punch of the ticket, but 1-1 might be enough too. We’ll see how it goes.
Iowa St: 16-4 (5-2) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (56) TW’s (3)
The Cyclones are on a tear right now, winners of 5 out of their last 6, including wins over Houston/Kansas and @ TCU. Quite the run, and surprisingly they are actually showing some competency on the offensive end which has been their achilles heel over the last few years. We know they can defend, but with guys like Gilbert/Lipsey/King all stepping up in the scoring department they look much more formidable than past iterations. Their weak non-conference schedule leaves more to be done though, and the schedule is daunting. They head to Baylor and Texas this week, so 0-2 puts them 6-6 in Q1/2 games and it’s not going to get any easier as we keep rolling. They’re in a great position, just need to grab a couple more wins to shore up the resumé.
Baylor: 13-5 (3-3) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (30) TW’s (3)
Baylor’s lack of defense has finally been catching up to them as Big 12 play has gotten underway, and they’ve now lost 3 in a row. They’re one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the Country, with 6 guys shooting 37% or better and are 41% as a team. The issue is they’re 68th defensively, and in a Conference as tough as this, they’re just not going to be able to survive that unbalanced. They’re just 5-5 in Q1/2 games, which is good enough right now to be firmly in, it’s just not going to be enough if they can’t get the train back on the tracks. They head to UCF and then get a really good Iowa St team at home. There’s a world where next week we’re looking at a 13-7 Baylor team in complete free-fall. There’s also a world where they’re 15-5 and will be a close lock consideration. I have no idea which way it’ll go, and maybe it’ll be right in the middle, all I know is I’m excited to watch it play out.
BYU: 15-5 (3-4) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (61) TW’s (3)
BYU was white hot and the darlings of the efficiency metrics entering Big 12 play, but they’ve been hit in the mouth by this daunting Conference in year 1. They’ve been beat up by some injuries also, but they’re slowly returning guys like Fous Traore and Trevin Knell, who are very important to what they do, so I have some hope they can right the ship and remain on their trajectory to be dancing. For now, they sit right with this group of teams in the middle of the Conference along the 4-6 seed lines. They’re safely in as it stands, but given how they’ve struggled early on I can understand any skepticism folks may have for this group. It’s all in front of you in this Conference, as there’s opportunities each week to bolster the resumé. This week they have some time off and then a trip to WVU in what should be a W, so not much should change by the next time we meet, barring a catastrophe.
Oklahoma: 15-5 (3-4) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (58) TW’s (2)
I don’t want to say the Sooners are in big trouble but they have now lost back-to-back games at home to Texas and Texas Tech. You really can’t afford to lose games at home in this league, and now they have to head to Kansas St and UCF this week. The record looks solid but then you realize 8-0 in Q4 is virtually useless and you are hanging on to just 2 quality wins. They’re on the right track, but based on their recent play and what’s in front of them, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them drift down to the teetering category if they can’t pull of a road win here this week. They’ve been a great story, and Porter Moser deserves credit for getting them to this level, but this league is no joke. We’ll see how it plays out, but of the group of teams in the middle of the Big 12 right now Oklahoma is the one I’m least confident can keep it up.
Teetering:
TCU: 15-5 (4-3) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (47) TW’s (3)
TCU played a pathetically bad non-conference and are just 3-5 in Q1/2 games, but thanks to this difficult Conference those 3 wins are against Houston/Baylor/Oklahoma, which is a very impressive trio of wins. They don’t do anything spectacular, but they play fast and share the ball, with Emmanuel Miller as their leader and transfers Jameer Nelson Jr and Trevian Tennyson providing scoring sparks. It’s hard to truly tell who they are exactly and how good they could be given the weak schedule, but if the road win over Baylor tells you anything it’s they have the ceiling to be very dangerous. They host both Texas Tech and Texas this week, win both of those and we will all be forced to take this year’s version of TCU seriously.
Texas: 14-6 (3-4) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (53) TW’s (2)
The Longhorns have been a bit of an enigma in the first full season under Rodney Terry, as they underwent quite a bit of turnover but on paper looked to be much better than they’ve been thus far. They’ve been a little disjointed due to some injuries, but Dylan Disu has been back in the starting lineup for the last 6 games and is playing well. They struggle to defend, which is far different than what we saw under Beard, but like I said with Baylor in this league you’re going to struggle to win consistently if you can’t defend. They get a massive opportunity to add to the resumé tonight vs Houston though, and a win over a team that good is going to really push them into solidly in the field. A loss though and we’re looking at a team that’s 5-7 outside of Q4, which is just not good enough. They’ll head to TCU later in the week, so an 0-2 week is on the table and would likely put them on the wrong side of the bubble when we next meet. It could get dicey for Terry in year 1.
Kansas St: 14-6 (4-3) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (33) TW’s (3)
This year’s K-State team is far from the quality we saw a year ago but Jerome Tang still has the talent on this roster to squeak into the dance again. The struggle for this year’s team has been offensively, as they just haven’t gelled like they did a year ago, evidenced by their 348th ranking in turnover %. Not to mention they’re shooting just 31.7% from 3 which is tough to win with, especially when you can’t take care of the basketball. In spite of all of that they’ve been able to rack up a few good wins thanks to their defense and offensive rebounding. The big win they’re hanging their hat on is over Baylor, and they get another chance to add to that with Oklahoma coming in this week. They desperately need that to add another notch to the bedpost, as the 1 meager Q1 win is not going to get it done. The trip later in the week to Oklahoma St is also a must-win so this is shaping up to be a pivotal week for the Wildcats to try and fight their way onto the right side of the bubble.
Cincinnati: 14-6 (3-4) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (68) TW’s (2)
Cincy is definitely a surprise as I certainly wouldn’t have predicted they would even be near the bubble in year 1 in the Big 12. The keys to their success have been defense and rebounding, pretty good areas to excel in, but they’ve done it for the most part against a pretty weak schedule. Obviously, it has started to ramp up as Big 12 play has started, but they are still in dire need of some big wins. They do have wins over BYU and TCU in Conference play, but just 3-6 in Q1/2 is far too little at this point. As we’ve said before, they’re in the Conference of opportunity, so the path is obvious, win your home games. If they can win the 5 they have left, plus the road game this week against WVU then they’ll have 20 wins with at least 4 Q1 wins. That will have them close, but if they can’t take care of business at home it’s going to be very tough barring a string of road wins.
UCF: 12-7 (3-4) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-1) SOS: (64) TW’s (2)
The Golden Knights are certainly near the bottom of the watch list but when you have a win over Kansas and a fairly clean resumé you certainly have a path. This is as unbalanced a team as their is in the Power 5, as they’re top-10 defensively but sub-200 on the other end. It’s not a recipe for long term success, but in this Conference there are too many opportunities for massive wins to eliminate a team that has a resumé like this. This is a massive week for their tourney hopes, hosting both Baylor and Oklahoma. To stay alive they have to win at least 1 of those, and maybe 2, as they really can’t afford to drop home games at this stage. They have 6 remaining home games with all of them potentially being Q1. Add 2 road games vs WVU and Oklahoma St that they should win and you could see how they can go on a run and put themselves in position to get in. I’m not predicting it, but the opportunity still exists, and that’s why we’re here.
–Big East–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Creighton: 16-5 (7-3) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (37) TW’s (5)
The Blue Jays are very close, and probably should join the lock group in short order, but they do only have 1 Q1(A) victory. You may ask, really another variation of the quadrants? Well, yes the committee does breakdown Q1 to look at the most elite wins, and Creighton just has the 1 vs Marquette’s 4 for example. It’s really not that big of a knock, but if we’re splitting hairs we’ll go ahead and split em. This group has gotten better and better as the year has gone on though, going 7-1 in their last 8 with the lone loss @ UConn. Based on what I’ve seen I don’t expect them to slow down, but they do host a desperate Butler team that already went to Marquette and won this year. Win that and we’ll probably lock up the veteran Blue Jays.
Teetering:
St. John’s: 13-7 (5-4) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (15) TW’s (4)
Rick Pitino’s first year is going pretty well considering he turned over an entire roster via the transfer portal and now has this team in the field as we enter February. They stopped a 3 game skid with a W over Villanova this past weekend and are now 7-6 in Q1/2 games. They’ve played a very tough schedule which helps them, but they’re barely hanging on to some of these wins as they don’t have the win over an elite team. The best wins are over fellow bubble teams Utah/Providence and Villanova 2x. Any of those teams could fade and lose the shine they appear to have now, so it’s imperative Pitino and co. pick up some more big time wins down the stretch. They have a trip to Xavier upcoming, which is very dangerous, especially with the massive game vs UConn coming right after. It’s a dangerous week where the opportunities are large but if they go 0-2 they could be on the outside looking in.
Seton Hall: 13-8 (6-4) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (1-3) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (14) TW’s (4)
Shaheen Holloway has done a pretty good job rebuilding this program in his own image and had them sitting pretty at 13-5, playing tough, gritty basketball. They’ve now lost 3 in a row, 2 of which were without their leading scorer Kadary Richmond. They were in the midst of an 8-1 stretch that included wins over UConn and Marquette, when they lost a triple OT thriller to Creighton and their star Richmond in the process. From what I gather he should be back at some point, but they are clearly not quite the same without him, shocker, but lucky for them they get the 2 bottom feeders in the Conference this week to try and buy him some more time to recover. This week it’s just survive and advance, with Georgetown and DePaul on the docket, but they’re going to need to improve that 5-7 Q1/2 record down the stretch if they want to feel comfortable come Selection Sunday.
Villanova: 11-9 (4-5) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (2-3) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (3) TW’s (4)
The Kyle Neptune era continues to be off to a rocky start, as the influx of talent this year has yet to produce a team that looks anything like the Villanova we had grown accustomed to. They are now in the midst of a 4 game losing streak and own one of the more difficult resumé’s to seed in the Country. On one hand they hold impressive wins over teams like Texas Tech/UNC/Creighton, but on the other hand they have losses to Penn/St. Joe’s/Drexel. Horrific losses, fantastic wins, who are these Villanova Wildcats? Perhaps they don’t even know, and that seems like it may be the problem as we’re used to a Villanova program that is greater than the sum of its individual parts, but we appear to be watching a team of just parts trying to all do it on their own. It’s possible this was just a rough stretch, and they do get 2 home games this week to bounce back so it’s certainly not over. They kick it off with Marquette in what is a pivotal game for their tournament hopes and then host Providence. Sweep the week and we’ll feel much more comfortable about this situation, as you just can’t afford home losses on the bubble.
Providence: 14-6 (5-4) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (65) TW’s (3)
The Friars were off to a fantastic start this season until star Bryce Hopkins was lost for the season, which sent them into a bit of a free fall as they lost 4 in a row. They’ve bounced back though, thanks in part to a softening of the schedule, but also due to beginning to adjust to life without Hopkins. They are an elite defensive team that really struggles to score the ball, which is not shocking after losing a guy averaging over 15 ppg. Right now they’re hanging their hat on 3 big wins, Wisconsin in the non-conference and Marquette and @ Seton Hall in Conference. The most recent road W over the Pirates flipped them onto the right side of the bubble for me, but man it’s close right now. They played an overall weak schedule prior to Big East play but have plenty of opportunities left down the stretch, including hosting UConn, Creighton, St. John’s and Villanova. This week is an absolute gauntlet though, with trips to UConn and Villanova on tap, so it could look a little more ugly this time next week. In the long run there’s definitely a path, but 5-8 in Q1/2 will have me worried.
Butler: 13-7 (5-5) — Q1: (2-6) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (43) TW’s (3)
Thad Matta has returned to Butler and has this rag tag group of transfers right in the thick of it in the Big East. They don’t play much defense but they have a group of guys who can really score and have proven they can beat anybody with wins over Texas Tech/Marquette/Villanova. The problem they have right now is just the lack of quality wins, as those 3 alone are not going to be enough to beat out most of these bubble teams, 3-7 in Q1/2 just isn’t going to cut it. They have all the opportunity they could ask for in front of them, so it’s all going to be about knocking off a couple more big dogs in the Conference to work their way into the field. They’ve proven they can win the games they’re supposed to, going 11-1 outside of Q1. They just have the problem similar to Syracuse, gotta beat good teams if you wanna be considered a good team. This week they get to go to Creighton…it’s an opportunity, but good luck.
–Pac-12–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Arizona: 15-5 (6-3) — Q1: (6-3) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (10) TW’s (5)
The Pac-12 is a heaping load of garbage in its final year with us, but at the top they have at least 1 team in Arizona that looks like they should find their way into the dance this year. Tommy Lloyd has built a face paced, offensive minded team in the Gonzaga mold that he helped create behind Mark Few. What he hasn’t brought is consistency though, and that’s what has haunted this Arizona team, as they’ve laid a couple of stinkers that has pumped the brakes on what looked like a clear Conference champion. Losses to Oregon St and Stanford really are causes for concern, especially when you’re talking about a team that lost in the 1st round as a 2 seed a year ago, but I digress. Overall, they have a ton of good wins in the non-conference which is going to more than make up for the couple of eggs they’ve laid thus far. They just need to avoid stepping on another land mine in the next week or two and we can lock this one up, but the previous digression is the main reason we haven’t punched their ticket quite yet. This week is Cal and Stanford at home, time to flex your muscle Zona.
Teetering:
Utah: 14-7 (5-5) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (17) TW’s (2)
Utah is pretty solidly in as it stands but they definitely have some work to do if they want to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. First and foremost they need to learn how to win on the road, as they’re now 0-5 in Pac-12 road games, 4 of which were double digit drubbings and the lone tourney team was Arizona. That’s bad. The good news is they racked up impressive wins over BYU/St. Mary’s in the non-conference, but at some point they’re going to need to start adding some quality wins during Pac-12 play. That’s the difficult part though for these Pac-12 teams, you have to win on the road unless you’re playing Arizona or Colorado right now to pick up a Q1 win. Lucky for the Utes, their next 2 games are exactly those 2 at home, starting with Colorado. There’s no guarantee the Buffs stay in the top-35, but it’s a huge game nonetheless as they need some big wins down the stretch. They’re 11-0 at home, so I have little doubt they’ll handle business, but if they don’t things could start to get murkier for Utah.
Washington St: 15-6 (6-4) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS (84) TW’s (3)
Of all the bubble teams in the Pac-12 this one is the most surprising, as pre-season I didn’t give much attention to Wazzu if we’re being honest. They have my attention now, with wins over Boise St/Utah/Colorado and of course the biggest of all Arizona, they’ve earned a bid at this point in my opinion. The revelation has been the play of redshirt FR guard Myles Rice, who’s scoring over 15 ppg and looking like an all-conference player. The amazing part of his story is he sat out last season as he battled Non-Hodgkin lymphoma. This kid should be a household name for going through that and bouncing back and playing like this in season 1 after being just a 3-star recruit. Where are the professional journalists at? This story is a gold mine. Anyway, despite a disgusting non-conference schedule Wazzu has racked up some big wins in Pac-12 play and now have a real chance to get in if they can handle business the rest of the way. This week is a trip to a desperate rival Washington that kicks off a 3 game road stretch.
Oregon: 14-6 (6-3) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS (72) TW’s (1)
The Ducks just had their biggest opportunity on the season slip through their grasp as they lost at home to Arizona and now are firmly on the outside looking in with few big time opportunities remaining. They played a very weak non-conference schedule and now the mediocre Pac-12 slate is not providing much for them to build a resumé. They have battled injuries all season, and finally had their starting frontcourt back against Arizona but just couldn’t stop Caleb Love. I still expect the Ducks to reel off some wins, especially now that Dante and Bittle are back in the lineup, it just may be too little too late with what appears to be just 2, maybe 3 Q1 games left, which happen to be the final 3 games of the season. They face an 8 game stretch where if they don’t go at least 7-1 it may be curtains. That’s just life in the Pac-12 this year but with Dana Altman at the helm I’ll never count Oregon out.
Colorado: 15-6 (6-4) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS (77) TW’s (1)
Colorado is a pretty good team if you ask me but they played an extremely weak non-conference schedule and then had to deal with their 5-star FR Cody Williams missing 8 games. I think they can play their way into the field, but as it stands their best win is @ Washington who isn’t on the bubble radar or a home win vs Wazzu who I barely have in the field. It’s a bad resumé, that, as we’ve said over and over again, will be presented with few opportunities in the Pac-12 to be bolstered. The calendar must have 2/10 circled as Arizona comes to Boulder, because their path to an at-large bid goes up in flames if they can’t win the one Q1 home game left on their schedule. Of course, they could go on a tear on the road and get in but excuse me for having little confidence in a team that is just 1-5 in road games this year. This week they head to Utah, a chance to prove me wrong.
–SEC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Kentucky: 15-4 (5-2) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (59) TW’s (2)
This young Kentucky team is, as usual, still trying to figure things out, but to have this record with all of the injuries and poor play at times is pretty impressive. They have regained the health of their frontcourt with Bradshaw, Onyenso and Ivisic now healthy, and FR guards Dillingham, Wagner and Sheppard are all playing better and better. Pair all of that with vets Tre Mitchell and Antonio Reeves and you start to see where the excitement is coming from. However, to this point the resumé isn’t overly strong, although they do own a win over UNC that’s really their only elite win, with another @ Florida rounding out their Q1 victories. It’s time to start stacking wins and building a resumé if you’re Kentucky, and they seem to have the horses to do so, it’s all about taking advantage of the opportunities coming, and boy are they coming. This week they host Florida and then the big one, as Tennessee comes to Rupp Arena in a game that can put this young Kentucky team firmly on the map. We’re going to see what they’re really made of this week.
Alabama: 14-6 (6-1) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (6) TW’s (3)
Alabama played a ridiculously tough schedule in the non-conference and were sitting just 6-5 in mid-December as they just got beat up by their schedule. Since then they are 8-1, with the lone loss @ Tennessee and have been able to finally win some tough games, most recently vs rival Auburn. Their run and gun style makes them a fun watch, but time will tell if they can play enough defense to keep this hot streak rolling. They have a difficult week as they head to a pesky Georgia team and then host Mississippi St. Going 2-0 in those games is going to go a long way towards making them feel secure, but a slip up at Georgia and you may have to start questioning the resumé as the volume of quality wins isn’t where it needs to be just yet. Should be a 2-0 week, but in college hoops we all know to expect the unexpected.
Auburn: 16-4 (5-2) — Q1: (0-3) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (67) TW’s (2)
Auburn right now is the statistical darling of the analytics community, ranking top-10 in virtually every power/efficiency ranking system known to mankind. However, they have 0 Q1 wins and their best win is either Ole Miss or Texas A&M at home, both fellow bubble teams. Lest we forget that loss to App St that’s hanging out there as well. Listen, they’ve been dominant against a bad schedule, I understand the metrics, but at the end of the day you have to start beating great teams to be considered a great team. We’re all kind of giving them the benefit of the doubt for now, but at some point the big time wins have to come or this could get dicey. This week they get Vandy at home, might as well be playing a middling Big Sky team, and then head to Ole Miss is what should remain a Q1 opportunity. If they are who we think they are they go 2-0 this week. Time to start proving what the computers are telling us.
South Carolina: 17-3 (5-2) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (9-0) SOS (100) TW’s (2)
The Gamecocks have definitely been a surprise in year 2 under Lamont Paris and have worked themselves into a pretty solid position as we enter February. Paris landed some key transfers to build around leading scorer Meechie Johnson, and they’ve been good defensively, holding Kentucky to just 62 for example. It’s not a perfect resumé though, with an extremely weak non-conference schedule they will need to continue to pile wins over quality teams in SEC play to stay on course. They have 2 great wins over Kentucky and Mississippi St, but it falls off quickly after that. This upcoming week is really going to test them, as they head to Knoxville to take on Tennessee and then to Athens in a rematch with Georgia who knocked them off earlier this month. Evening it up with Georgia and going 1-1 this week will keep things rolling, as losing to Tennessee is nothing to hang your head about. Go 0-2 though and people might start throwing around the fraud label. Not saying I will, but people might.
Teetering:
Ole Miss: 17-3 (4-3) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (82) TW’s (2)
Not a lot of people believed in this roster heading into the season, but with Chris Beard at the helm it was foolish to think they wouldn’t be competing for a tourney berth. Beard came in and immediately hit the portal, bringing guys like Allen Flannigan, Jaylen Murray, Brandon Murray, and Moussa Cisse to surround returners Brakefield and Murrell. This man just knows how to coach ball, and while they haven’t quite had the opportunity on their schedule to prove they are as good as their record says they are, it’s coming. They have just 2 Q1 wins to this point, but the most recent win @ Texas A&M proved they belong in the field and as it stands they are firmly in that 8-9 seed range. This week the opportunities come knocking, with both Mississippi St and Auburn coming to Oxford, it’s high time to start cashing in.
Mississippi St: 14-6 (3-4) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-1) SOS (44) TW’s (4)
Folks in Starkville should be feeling pretty good right now after this group was able to knock off Auburn over the weekend, putting themselves in a much firmer position in the 8-9 seed territory. They still aren’t safe, but with wins over Tennessee and Auburn we can start to move on from those horrific losses to Georgia Tech and Southern in the non-conference. Tolu Smith is back, and his presence inside and leadership is going to be huge for them down the stretch. They are elite defensively, when they want to be, but what makes them better this year than last is they are a couple steps better offensively. The issue has been showing up defensively, as in their last 3 losses they’ve given up 90, 82 and 79. Those were 3 elite offenses, but the Mississippi St of last year was not giving that up to anyone. They bounced back against Auburn, holding them to 58, and now they face a daunting week with 2 road trips, one to rival Ole Miss and then to Bama. Could be a tough week, but find a way to split these and we’re feeling really good.
Texas A&M: 12-8 (3-4) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (1-3) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (13) TW’s (2)
The Aggies are right there with Villanova in having the most difficult resumé to deal with, as they have 4 Q1 wins but then have some mystifying losses. They hold wins over Iowa St and Kentucky, while also holding losses to Arkansas and LSU. I have no idea what to think about this team, all I know is they absolutely cannot hit a shot from the outside but are the best offensive rebounding team in the Country. They are shooting a pathetic 26.7% from 3 this year. I didn’t know that low of a percentage was possible at this level. You’d think, okay we’re struggling from outside maybe we shouldn’t shoot so many, well they’re actually in the top third of the country in 3 point attempts. Again, mystifying these Aggies are. Either way you slice it, they have the wins to get in, but the bad losses have now put pressure on them to add more and more. They have some time off and then host Florida on Saturday in what feels like a must-win.
Florida: 14-6 (4-3) — Q1: (0-6) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (37) TW’s (1)
This resumé for Florida is wild, as they’re 14-0 outside of Q1 but 0-6 in those Q1 games. This is as unique a situation as they come, but at the same time so very simple. Just beat someone who matters. It may be easier said than done for Todd Golden and co. though, as they just refuse to play defense and try to outscore everyone they play. Has yet to work out against a good team, and with a difficult week upcoming on the road to Kentucky and A&M, we very well could be looking at them sitting 0-8 in Q1 the next time we meet. They have just 2 home games left that will count as Q1, Auburn and Bama, but even those 2 wins alone might not be enough. They’re going to have to start picking up some wins away from home if they want to hear their name on Selection Sunday. The path is there, but it could start closing up real fast if they don’t get busy. It’s nut up or shut up time for the Gators.
Georgia: 14-6 (4-3) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS (46) TW’s (1)
I want to be clear I do not believe this Georgia team is a tournament worthy team but as we sit today there is undoubtedly a path for them to prove me wrong. They have put together enough decent wins to have a shot, if they can start to go on a run here. It’s a spectacular turnaround from year 1 to 2 under Mike White, as they’ve been competitive in every game, losing to Tennessee by just 6, Kentucky by 9 and then Florida in OT. They’re battling, and they have another breakthrough opportunity with Bama coming to town this week to actually make this bubble watch appearance a long term thing. Honestly, they should go 2-0 this week if they want to have a chance, with another home tilt vs South Carolina following Bama, it’s an opportunity to go from 4-6 to 6-6 in Q1/2 games. That might be enough to get them from near the bottom to close to in, if not in altogether. Huge week for the Dawgs and their bubble life.
–Mountain West–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Utah St: 18-2 (6-1) — Q1: (1-2) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (117) TW’s (2)
The Aggies are in a fantastic position to win the regular season title in year 1 under Danny Sprinkle thanks to his work in the transfer portal. He brought with him Great Osobor and Darius Brown from Montana St and then landed Maryland transfer Ian Martinez and Oregon transfer big man Isaac Johnson. It’s an entirely new roster, so for all of that to come together and be sitting at 18-2 is an incredible coaching job by Sprinkle, who should not have surprised me this much after getting Montana St back-to-back NCAA tourney bids. The reason you can’t have this 18-2 team in lock status is that SOS and the lack of big time wins. Their best win to date is probably the most recent @ Boise St, and they beat Colorado St at home, but that’s just not enough when it comes down to it. They’re in a great position, but they’ll have few opportunities to add Q1 wins in the Mountain West. They’ll need some road wins or will rely on beating San Diego St and New Mexico at home. If the train keeps rolling they’ll be in, but the lack of major wins means they can’t afford to slip up. This week they get San Jose St at home then go to San Diego St in a big one for the Conference race.
San Diego St: 14-4 (5-2) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (52) TW’s (2)
The Aztecs are certainly on the right track but lack the quality wins to feel close to locking up at this point. They have bounced back well after losing a ton of production from last year’s team that made it to the Natty. Jaedon LeDee is back and leading the charge, but what we know about Dutcher teams is they’re going to defend and play hard. That has gotten them to this point, but with their best wins being a down Gonzaga and St. Mary’s they definitely are going to need more. There are plenty of opportunities though, as the Mountain West is probably better overall than the Pac-12 at this point, so they’ll have chances to add to this resumé. It starts this week, with a trip to Utah St and then they welcome Colorado St to town. I doubt they can go 2-0 but if they do we may be able to lock them up, but even a 1-1 week is going to keep them headed in the right direction.
Colorado St: 13-5 (3-4) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS (88) TW’s (2)
As far as the non-conference goes this Colorado St team had by far the best results in the MW, winning games over Creighton, Colorado and Washington. However, they’re now 0-4 in road contests in Conference play, including a loss to Wyoming who has been pretty bad this year. At one point they were 13-1 and highly ranked, now they’re losers of 4 of their last 6 and starting to slide into more dangerous territory. They are struggling to defend, and while Isaiah Stevens leading you offensively makes you very dangerous, they’re going to continue to lose games they shouldn’t if they can’t get stops. They have a huge opportunity to bounce back with San Diego St coming to Fort Collins this week, which could get them to 4-4 in Q1 which would feel very good. After that is a road game @ Fresno St, where they have to get this road monkey off their back to avoid falling further into the bubble mix.
Teetering:
New Mexico: 17-3 (6-2) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (168) TW’s (2)
The Lobos are loved by the computers and of late are really starting to put things together. Jaelen House and Donovan Dent are as dynamic a backcourt as there is in the Country and they’re actually defending at a decent level. The major issue here for Richard Pitino is the SOS is the worst of any team on the bubble watch right now. They have played just 6 Q1/2 games, with their best wins being San Diego St and Utah St at home. That’s a solid start, but let’s not forget they sat 18-2 last year and then went on to finish the year just 3-10. It’s one thing to beat up on a weak schedule, but as things continue to ramp up in Conference play we’ll find out just what this group is made of. This week they host Boise St, which will be a chance to add to the quality win total. At this point they are in, but they’ll start getting passed over if they don’t take advantage of the opportunities in front of them.
Boise St: 12-6 (5-2) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS (74) TW’s (3)
It’s hard to look at this resumé on its face and not just auto have the Broncos in at this point, but many of their 7 Q1/2 wins are barely clinging on, and that home loss to UNLV is lingering out there. This is the 3rd straight year Leon Rice has this Boise St program team in the mix for the tourney which is a fantastic feat for what was a pretty meh program before he arrived. They have an extremely tough stretch upcoming with 3 road games vs New Mexico/Colorado St/Utah St with a home game vs Air Force stuffed between. 1-3 in that stretch is very realistic, which would make things very dicey. If they can split the next 4, I think they’d remain on the right side of the bubble where I have them now. It’s going to be an interesting 2 weeks, but after that the schedule will soften quite a bit so the record should look much prettier a month from now. It’s a long grid, but each and every opportunity is massively important.
Nevada: 15-5 (3-4) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS (151) TW’s (2)
Steve Alford has done a good job to build something that can sustain year over year after Muss left a burning pile of rubble when he took off for Arkansas. The Wolfpack have been competitive and broke through last year getting to the dance. This year they’ve played well, but against a pretty weak schedule. They do however own 2 pretty solid wins in a neutral court W over TCU and a home win over Colorado St, so it’s a start. They have home games with San Diego St and New Mexico down the road that will be pivotal to getting back again this year. For now, they just need to survive and advance, and that starts with a home game vs San Jose St. Must win this week, especially since they’ve now lost 4 out of 5 in league play after starting 15-1. Need to right the ship as the 4 games after this one are all Q1/2 opportunities. It’s about to get real.
–American–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Florida Atlantic: 15-4 (5-1) — Q1: (3-1) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (5-1) SOS (81) TW’s (2)
The Owls have a pretty solid chance of making the tourney as an at-large right now, even though they’ve been caught sleepwalking through a few games. The big wins over Arizona and Texas A&M in the non-con are going to carry them through, but those losses right after the Arizona game to Florida Gulf Coast and Charlotte are keeping them from a top seed. Obviously, we all know the story, and know how much talent returned from the Final Four team a year ago, it just seems like they’re a little over confident and kind of lacksadalsicle as they go through this American Conference schedule. They play every team close, whether it’s going to OT with UTSA (281st KP) or a last possession win over N. Texas. They’re playing to the level of their competition in a way they didn’t a year ago. That makes you nervous, but the American is pretty trash so they’re able to get away with it. They don’t have a true test until late February when they play SMU and Memphis back-to-back. Can they stay focused enough to avoid disaster? If so, they might get locked up.
Teetering:
Memphis: 15-5 (4-3) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (4-2) Q4: (5-0) SOS (76) TW’s (2)
Memphis was looking in great shape a couple of weeks ago as they were 15-2 and rolling through their schedule. Now, they’re in the midst of a 3 game losing streak, all to sub-100 ranked teams including one at home. This team is full of transfers and was a wild roster to begin with, but to start 15-2 made it seem like they all came together to gel seamlessly. Now, you have to wonder what is going on in that locker room, as they’re giving up a ridiculous amount of points and dropping hard and fast down the seed line. They have back-to-back home games vs Rice and Wichita St which absolutely cannot be losses. I would expect them to right the ship, but I also didn’t expect them to lose these 3 in a row. I’m not sure how it’s all going to play out, but the opportunities to bolster your resumé in this Conference are few and far between so dropping any additional games in Q3/4 could sink their at-large chances.
–WCC–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track: N/A
Teetering:
Saint Mary’s: 15-6 (7-0) — Q1: (3-1) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (2-2) Q4: (8-0) SOS (136) TW’s (2)
The Gaels got off to a very rough start this year, going 3-5 in their first 8 games, including a home loss to Weber St. They have found their way, going 13-1 since then, returning to the Randy Bennett way of strong defense. However, they’ve done so against a pretty weak schedule outside of the Colorado St win, and does that get wiped away by the loss at home to Missouri St? It’s hard to place this resumé right now, but if we’re splitting hairs I think they have the better shot between them and Gonzaga as it stands today. That makes this weekend even more pivotal as the Gaels head to Gonzaga. Win that and there’s no doubt who the best team in the WCC is. First though, you have to take care of business against a Santa Clara team that already knocked off Gonzaga earlier this year. Big week in the WCC.
Gonzaga: 15-5 (6-1) — Q1: (0-4) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS (119) TW’s (0)
Well this is a different feeling for Zags fans I’m sure, as this is the first time in a long while that this program is needing work to hope for an at-large bid. They lost a ton from last year, and the transfers Graham Ike and Ryan Nembhard have been good, it’s just the wing players have been abysmal in support. They are 207th in 3 point shooting and are currently the worst rated Gonzaga offense since 2014. They scheduled tough in the non-conference again, but went 0-4 in those Q1 chances and after losing to Santa Clara would likely be on the outside looking in if they were to lose the WCC tourney. However, this season isn’t over, and they’ve reeled off 4 in a row since that bad loss and are staring down a home matchup with fellow WCC favorite St. Mary’s this Saturday. They just have to get through Loyola Marymount and that will setup a massive game in the WCC this weekend.
San Francisco: 16-6 (5-2) — Q1: (0-5) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (11-0) SOS (195) TW’s (0)
I don’t think San Francisco has much of a shot at this point given their schedule limitations the rest of the way, but with a clean resumé like they have I see a tiny glimmer of hope, so I’ll lay it out for ya. They still have two impact games left vs Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. Win both of those and you have 2 major wins and no bad losses. They also have a road game @ Santa Clara that could squeak into the Q2 territory. They have to be perfect the rest of the way, and if they are I think they’d have a legitimate shot to get an at-large bid. We’ll see if they can pull it off.
–Others–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Dayton: 16-3 (6-1) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (49) TW’s (1)
It would take a couple more losses for this Dayton team to start feeling like they’re in danger of missing the tournament at this point. They played a tough non-conference, beating St. John’s, Cincy and SMU away from home to collect 3 Q1 victories. It isn’t the greatest trio of wins but it’s solid enough when you have no losses outside of Q1. The issue they face is being the hunted in a Conference that offers up no opportunities to add to your resumé. They’ll need to win damn near every game the rest of the way, being able to afford maybe 1 or 2 more losses max along the way. The good news is when you have a guy as dominant as DaRon Holmes has been it makes life much easier, especially when you’ve surrounded him with a team that’s shooting 39% from 3. They might be the best mid-major out there, and certainly look bound for the NCAA tourney.
Teetering:
Grand Canyon: 18-2 (9-1) — Q1: (1-1) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (11-0) SOS (261) TW’s (1)
The Antelopes led by Bryce Drew had to make it onto the bubble watch as they’re clinging to a massive road win over San Diego St as their proof of concept. Bryce Drew has done an incredible job plucking this program out of obscurity and building an annual contender, and I would imagine this will be his last year here. But for now, they are looking to push to get into the NCAA tourney and make some waves. It is hard for me to imagine a world where a 29-2 team that loses in their conference tourney doesn’t get in, especially when they have a win vs a current NET top-20 team. Now, if they start adding losses to the resumé in these WAC games it’s going to get tougher and tougher to argue. Hopefully they can just get it done in March and not leave it up to the Selection committee, but for now, they have to be on the radar.
5-STAR Bracketology 