Welcome back to the 2nd edition of 2024’s official Bubble Watch, the place where we track and make sense of the most fantastically complex post-season selection process known to man. The bubble is of course about as murky as you could ask for, with teams like Virginia, Cincinnati and UCF making major moves with big time Q1 wins and teams like St. John’s, Miami and Kansas St stubbing their toe as they whiff on big opportunities. This extends all the way down to teams like Florida St and Indiana, who suffered mind-numbingly stupid losses this week that pulled the plug on what little at-large life they were clinging to. It’s only going to get tougher and tougher to split hairs between the teams right on the cut line, but with most teams having 8-10 games remaining on the season, everything is in front of you this time of year, with countless opportunities to separate yourself. 

Of course, we know March will be just as wild and unpredictable as ever, but what we can’t allow to be wild and unpredictable is Selection Sunday. So, I’m going to assign teams to 3 groups – Locks, On the Right Track and Teetering. Any team left out is not even on the radar, so maybe 4 groups for you sticklers out there. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.

“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.

“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 7-8 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.

“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, all the way to the bottom feeders who are holding on to a glimmer of at-large hope with much to do. 

For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), NET SOS and a final category being the Q1(A) record. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 68 teams on the first watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 2/5. Check out my current bracket projection here. 

Bubble Breakdown:

Total Bids: 68

1-bid conferences: 19

Locks: 8

Bids Left: 41

Bubble: 58

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–ACC–

Locks: 

 

On the Right Track:

Duke: 16-5 (7-3) — Q1: (4-2) Q2: (1-3) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (66) Q1(A): (2-2) 

Duke is in a comfortable position right now, let’s not get it twisted, especially after notching a road win over bubble team VA Tech. What’s fresh in our minds though is watching them lose to rival UNC in a game where their only lead was 2-0 to start the game. They gave up 46 points and 23 rebounds to the UNC starting front-court Bacot and Ingram, pretty wild. This of course hits right at the major criticism for this Duke team, their lack of toughness and grit inside. They are very skilled and score with efficiency offensively, but drag them to the deep waters and you’ll start to see the cracks. Aside from the on-court criticisms, they also hold a 1-3 record in Q2 games, which by my estimation is tied with Seton Hall for the worst Q2 record on this watch. What’s keeping them in good shape of course are those non-conference wins over Baylor and Sparty, but all of this is to say this is not an open and shut case just yet. 5-5 in Q1/2 should not make you feel all that safe just yet. This week is just a try not to fall asleep at the wheel week, with Notre Dame and Boston College coming to Cameron Indoor they just have to win and move along. 

Teetering:

Clemson: 14-7 (4-6) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (22) Q1(A): (1-2) 

Clemson got off to a blazing start and entered ACC play 11-1, but since then it’s been pretty ugly, going 4-6 in a weak Conference and they are now clinging to their tournament lives. The most recent loss at home to Virginia was just another in a string of games that I thought the Tigers would win. They simply don’t defend and it’s coming back to haunt them, allowing an anemic Virginia offense to score 66 points on just 57 possessions. At the moment they are holding on to their strong non-conference, with wins over Boise St, Alabama, S. Carolina and TCU. That’s an impressive group of wins, but at some point they have to stop the bleeding, as they can only hold on to those for so long. It’s not getting any easier either, as this week they head to UNC and then to a desperate Syracuse team, so 0-2 is very much in the cards. If that happens they would likely be right on the cut line, so this is a huge week for them to bounce back. 

Virginia: 17-5 (8-3) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (96) Q1(A): (1-1) 

Leave it to Tony Bennett to get a team that is 151st in offensive efficiency to be in the midst of a 6 game win streak, with their most recent @ Clemson being a defining W on their resumé. The big pivot from Bennett has been the shift to Jordan Minor at the 5, who was playing maybe 10 mpg when they fell to 11-5. Since then he’s been in the starting lineup and has averaged nearly 10 ppg, which is a big number for a team that doesn’t score much. They’ve climbed to 5-4 in Q1/2 games, and while they have that ugly loss @ Notre Dame sitting out there, the schedule down the stretch offers 6 straight Q1/2 games for them to continue and bolster the resumé. They’re right on the borderline as it’s stands, but everything is in front of them with this schedule, and it starts with a home game vs Miami and then a trip to Florida St. 2-0 this week and they’ll surely be in the next time we meet. 

Miami (FL): 15-7 (6-5) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (6-2) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (7-1) SOS: (87) Q1(A): (0-1) 

Miami held serve this week so to speak, but what that means for them is remaining on the outside looking in. As we’ve discussed previously, they’ve put themselves in a tough spot with ugly losses to Louisville and Florida St at home, so they still need some elite wins to overcome that. They were without Matthew Cleveland for a couple of games, including their loss this week to NC State, but he returned in their win on Saturday vs VA Tech and had 15 and 13. He is important for them, and it’s a good thing he’s back and healthy as they head to white hot Virginia and then host UNC this week. That’s 2 Q1 chances for a team that is dying for a signature win that they simply can’t afford to miss out on, as falling to 1-5 in Q1 games with few opportunities remaining would be detrimental. 

Virginia Tech: 13-9 (5-6) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (21) Q1(A): (1-2)

The Hokies were fighting there way to the top of the bubble the last time we met, with opportunities to bolster their resumé incoming. They failed to take advantage, dropping a home game to Duke and then on the road to Miami. They really struggled to slow either team down, giving up 77 and 82 while getting smoked on the boards in both games as well. No defense and no rebounding, not exactly a recipe for success. Their at-large hopes are now on life support, and they’ll have a week to think about it as they have just one game on Saturday @ ND. That’s a can’t-lose game, as a loss there would pull the plug on whatever life they have left and remove them from the watch list. It’s as dire as it gets around here. 

N.C. State: 15-7 (7-4) — Q1: (0-5) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (63) Q1(A): (0-3)

The Wolfpack did exactly what they needed to do this week, going 2-0 at home and picking up an additional Q2 win in the process. While it didn’t deliver them the signature win that they desperately need, it kept them alive so when the opportunity comes knocking they can take advantage. For now, they remain fairly low on the watch list, but that clean 11-0 record in Q3/4 means a couple of Q1 wins and all of a sudden they’ll be right in the mix. This week is exactly what the doctor ordered, with a Q2 home game against Pitt and then a Q1 chance @ fellow bubble team Wake Forest. While a split of those games won’t vanquish their hopes, falling to 0-6 in Q1 is going to present quite the hole to dig themselves out of. 

Syracuse: 13-8 (5-6) — Q1: (1-6) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS: (16) Q1(A): (0-3)

A desperate situation has only worsened since we last met, as the Orange went 0-2 on the road, falling to Wake and BC and are now on the brink. They need near perfection the rest of the way, and forgive me but after a 29 point blowout to a bubble team I have little confidence that can be achieved. However, there remains a path, and it’s going to reveal itself in the next 10 days as they have 3 straight home games, 2 of which are Clemson and UNC. They first get a confidence booster with Louisville coming in, then things get real. They absolutely have to win these 3 home games, and at 16-8 would still be alive, especially with that home win over UNC to give them 2 Q1 wins and an overall 5-7 Q1/2 record. It still wouldn’t be enough to get them in, but it keeps that glimmer of hope still lit, which at this point is all they can get. 

Wake Forest: 14-7 (6-4) — Q1: (0-3) Q2: (5-4) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (78) Q1(A): (0-1)

The Demon Deacons had a shot at picking up their first Q1 W but lost @ Pitt this week as they let another chance slip away. They did bounce back to blow out Syracuse at home, but for a team that is desperate for big time wins they can’t afford to miss out on too many more chances. They are pretty far down the bubble at this point if we’re being honest, but there are still some chances out there that if they can capitalize on could push them close. It’s dire, and with a trip to a dangerous Georgia Tech team this week, we’re now asking a team that’s 1-4 in ACC road games to beat a Tech team that has knocked off Duke and UNC at home. However, they’re 124th in the NET for a reason, so this is one that you absolutely cannot lose if you’re Wake and want to have any shot at an at-large. After that they get N.C. State at home so a 2-0 week would also bump them to 7-4 in Q2 and start to breathe some life into this resumé with 8 to play. 

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–Big Ten–

Locks:

On the Right Track:

Wisconsin: 16-6 (8-3) — Q1: (6-5) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (4) Q1(A): (2-3) 

Well the exact thing I was worried about, and what kept me from locking up Wisconsin, played out this past week as they lost both @ Nebraska and at home vs Purdue. Now, this by no means puts them at any risk of missing the tourney as it stands, but there is no doubt a little bit of uneasiness for Badger fans has set in after watching them finish last season just 4-12 down the stretch after starting 11-2. I’m not saying they’re destined to fall apart again, I think they’re much better this year, but with 2 Big Ten road games up this week it could get awfully dicey if they don’t get things turned around. It will start defensively, as they gave up 75 and 80 in the 2 losses this past week, something Greg Gard will certainly be unhappy with. The good news is the games are against Michigan and Rutgers, and while it’s never easy to win on the road in college basketball, those are 2 very winnable games. Win both and we’ll have nothing to fear with this year’s Badgers. 

Illinois: 17-5 (8-3) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (48) Q1(A): (1-3)

Illinois handled their business this week, picking up a win @ Ohio St that is Q1 as of now but with the Buckeyes in free fall may quickly fall to Q2. They then beat a fiery Nebraska team at home in OT to keep the train rolling. They can sometimes get cute and play with their food, but as a whole this Illini team is supremely talented and is probably the closest team to locking that we have on the watch. Their biggest knock is the lack of elite wins, with just the 1 Q1(A) victory over FAU on a neutral court, which would fall off if FAU falls just 1 spot. That lack of wins keeps them from lock territory, as a disastrous end to the season could still see them with an ugly Q1 record that might not get them in. I expect them to pick up some quality wins, but stranger things have happened. They have some time off before heading to East Lansing in a massive game against Sparty on Saturday. Win that and we would feel much better about locking. 

Northwestern: 15-7 (6-5) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-1) SOS: (23) Q1(A): (2-3)

Perhaps the Wildcats aren’t who I thought they were, as I was confident last week they would lose to Purdue and then bounce back against Minnesota. They dropped both games, albeit both in OT, it’s still an 0-2 week that now drops them to 6-6 in Q1/2 games. They have an elite trio of guards led by Boo Buie, but they struggle so bad on the glass and in the paint on both ends. That weakness haunted them in both losses, as they shot a ridiculous 25-50 from 3 and still lost both games. That’s hard to do. The good news is they still have those 4 great wins and have 2 home games vs Nebraska and Penn St this week, with the former being a Q2 opportunity. A 2-0 week keep this group right on track, but another loss outside of Q1 would start to sound some alarms. Time for this veteran group to lock in and take care of business. 

Teetering: 

Nebraska: 16-7 (6-6) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (64) Q1(A): (2-2)

Nebraska took another giant step forward in their quest to get back to the tourney for the first time since 2014 with the massive home win vs Wisconsin. They then went to Illinois and gave a very good Illini team everything they could handle, but ultimately fell in OT. This was the toughest 2 game stretch on their schedule and they pulled out a W, so they have to be very proud of that. They are an electric team to watch, with one of the most fascinating players in the Country Keisei Tominaga at the center of it all. The lefty from Japan is a ton of fun to watch, if he’s not raining threes on your team, and behind him and transfers Brice Williams and Rienk Mask HC Fred Hoiberg has a legit squad on his hands. They are now below .500 in Q1/2 games, but the 6 wins is a strong number, especially with 2 of them being over Purdue and Wisconsin. They should feel decently safe as of now, and the schedule softens a bit down the stretch. It doesn’t right away though, as they head to Northwestern next but then get a home game vs Michigan after that. Split that and they’re still right on track, although at 6-8 in Q1/2 it’s not a sure thing by any means as they won’t be able to afford bad losses down the stretch. 

Michigan St:  14-8 (6-5) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (11) Q1(A): (1-5) 

Sparty did what they had to do this week to stay afloat, beating up on Michigan and then grinding out a tough one vs Maryland. They’re now just 5-8 in Q1/2 games though, so while the computers are telling us this is a top-25 team, they don’t select the tournament field. While that might anger State fans and analytic lovers alike, at some point with 30+ games and a full Big Ten slate you have to prove on the court what the numbers say. Close losses are losses nonetheless, and it’s high time Michigan St starts picking up some big time wins to back up their metrics. Wouldn’t you know, this week offers just that, with a trip to Minnesota in a Q2 game and then they host Illinois, their 1 and only home Q1 chance remaining. This is a pivotal week in the season for this team, as going 2-0 would make them feel a whole lot more comfy, especially with that big home win over the Illini. Can’t fall into the trap at Minnesota though. 1 game at a time for Izzo and co. 

Maryland: 13-9 (5-6) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (2-2) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (54) Q1(A): (1-2)

The Terps didn’t have much of a chance to improve their situation this week, with only a trip to East Lansing on the books it was going to take a Herculean effort to win the week. They are still alive in my book, albeit as low as you can be on the watch, the path is there. I think there’s a realistic shot they finish the season 8-1, and while that may be far fetched even a 7-2 finish would put them 20-11 with a much better looking Q1/2 record. For now, they’re just 4-7 with 2 bad losses, but have a chance this week at notching another as they head to Columbus to take on a spiraling Ohio St team. Prior to that they host Rutgers in what could possibly be the worst showing of offense the college basketball world will see all season. It’s a must-win followed by basically a must-win, as anything short of 15-9 next week would probably see their hopes vanquish. 

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–Big 12–

Locks: 

On the Right Track:

Baylor: 15-5 (5-3) — Q1: (6-3) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (18) Q1(A): (3-3)

Baylor was able to right the ship this week, ending their 3 game skid winning a tough one @ UCF and then coming home and knocking off Iowa St. That added 2 Q1 wins to this resumé and helped to remove any feelings of an imminent collapse that we may have had last week. This is the best 3-point shooting team in the Country, up to nearly 42% as a team, and they used that to put up 70+ on two top-10 defenses this week. While I generally have bad feelings about their lack of defense, I’m only here to debate their at-large hopes, which are nearly secured at this point as they have the most Q1 wins of any team that isn’t locked. This week they host Texas Tech and then head to Kansas in a massive matchup with Gameday in attendance. Realistically, 3 of their next 4 are very winnable, and getting that done would likely end our weekly Baylor discussions and send them to the Lock camp. 

Iowa St: 16-5 (5-3) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (49) Q1(A): (3-3)

A .01 second difference is all it took for the Cyclones to fall short this week, losing @ Baylor with the game winner barely not getting off in time. It was a great game and a clear showing that this Iowa St team is pretty damn good. Now, they have major wins over Kansas and Houston, but that 5-5 Q1/2 record is going to need added to, and they’re a couple more losses in a row from falling hard and fast down the seed list. The good news of course is this is the Big 12, the land of opportunity I like to call it, so their next 2 games are of course Q1 chances. They first head to Austin to play a Texas team that is really rounding into form and then go back to Hilton to take on TCU. If they split the week they’d hold serve for the most part, but a sweep would get them dangerously close to lock territory. 

BYU: 16-5 (4-4) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (52) Q1(A): (1-4)

The Cougars had a pretty quiet week, which was a very good thing as their only game was @ West Virginia and the only thing that would’ve made that notable was an upset loss. They took care of business, but were once again without a key member, this time big man Aly Khalifa. He missed the game due to the flu, so he should be back soon, but we’ve not seen this BYU team play at full strength in some time. Fous Traore was back in the starting lineup though, putting up 24 and 9 which was a great sign for them heading forward. Hopefully they can get healthy for their next one as they head to an up and down Oklahoma team that can look great at times and at other times pretty bad. That’s a winnable game, as is the next one at home vs K-State. If they can go 2-0 they’d feel a whole lot more comfortable with a couple of easy ones on deck. 

Oklahoma: 16-6 (4-5) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (55) Q1(A): (2-3)

Oklahoma has to be the most inconsistent team in the Country, as they went on the road and beat K-State by 22 points and then followed that up with an 11 point loss @ UCF. They gave up 85 points to Texas Tech last week and then only gave up 53 to K-State. Then they allowed UCF, one of the worst offensive teams in high major basketball, to score 74. I have no idea how good this Oklahoma team is. The metrics say top-25 to top-30 good, but it looks more like they show up one night top-15 good and another sub-50. Either way, they’re sitting at 6-6 in Q1/2 which is a good enough spot right now to be solidly in, but certainly not safe without some more wins. They have a huge opportunity this week with BYU coming to Norman, so if the good version of this Sooner group shows up they could get another elite win on the resumé. That one is followed by in-state rival Oklahoma St coming in, so a 2-0 week would be absolutely massive to create some separation from them and the true bubble.  

Teetering:

Texas Tech: 16-5 (5-3) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (0-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (69) Q1(A): (3-2)

Well, that was quite the pivot for Texas Tech, who a week ago was sitting with 5 Q1/2 wins and unbelievable momentum. They dropped 2 games this week, @ TCU and then at home to Cincy in a baffling one. What added insult to injury is they had 2 Q2 wins fall into Q3 thanks to the fall of both Michigan and K-State. They’re now just 3-5 in Q1/2 games, and while it’s clearly not a perfect science, the resumé picture they bring to the table right now is not nearly as pretty as it was a week ago. What they do have in their favor is those 3 Q1(A) wins, which can help to make up for the lack of total quality wins, but can’t completely keep you afloat. Simply put, they need more. This week they’re heading to Baylor and then host UCF, which gives them both a Q1 and Q2 opportunity. It’s the right Conference to be in if you want the most volume of opportunity, but boy it can get real ugly if you start piling up losses. 

Texas: 15-7 (4-5) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (27) Q1(A): (4-4)

I think the Longhorns are starting to turn a corner, and while they didn’t ultimately beat Houston this past week, pushing them to the brink in OT was very impressive and they bounced back in an 11 point win @ TCU. Dylan Disu’s return from injury and into the starting lineup looks like the key shift, and they’ve now learned to play together in this new lineup and he is on fire. He’s shooting over 50% from 3 along with being a fantastic rebounder which has been a huge addition to this team. They now hold a whopping 4 Q1(A) wins and get a shot at another one this week with Iowa St coming to Austin. If they can convert that and then take care of West Virginia then this time next week they will be sitting pretty with just 7 to go. Rodney Terry deserves credit, as a few weeks ago they were in a dire spot and he has shifted things around, with Chendall Weaver getting more run to help defensively and Disu getting more and more looks offensively, he has the Longhorns looking much improved as we enter February. 

TCU: 16-6 (5-4) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (56) Q1(A): (2-3)

TCU had a huge opportunity this week to make things a little comfier with 2 home games vs Tech and Texas, but came up short vs the Longhorns after winning the first. That keeps them below .500 in Q1/2 at 4-6, which frankly isn’t that good but it’s ballooned by the 2 Q1(A) wins over Houston and @ Baylor. Those are 2 massive wins, but eventually they’ll have to scratch and claw to get a few more of those high quality wins. For now, they’re barely in the field and they have a week off before heading to Iowa St in a very difficult place to play. I still don’t know what to make of this team, but one thing we know about the Big 12 is only the strong survive, so we’ll find out in due time if they are good or not. Next time we meet they’ll likely be sitting just 4-7 in Q1/2, so they’ll be right in the bubble crosshairs entering mid-February. 

Cincinnati: 15-7 (4-5) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (51) Q1(A): (2-3)

I’m still baffled by this Cincy team, as they go to West Virginia and lose a disgusting game which I thought could have buried them, but then bounce right back to win @ Texas Tech. You could chalk up the loss to a bad night of shooting, as they shot just 9-32, and there was a concerted effort to take fewer threes and get to the pain in the following game. That change helped them be more efficient offensively and pick up a massive win that keeps them very much alive. Thanks to that Q3 loss out there now though I have them the first team out. I wouldn’t argue if you had them in at this point, but in early February it’s more about the general positioning and being right on the cut line means you need to win big time games. Good news for them is Houston comes knocking on Saturday in what amounts to a potential season defining win. 

UCF: 13-8 (4-5) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-1) SOS: (46) Q1(A): (2-4)

UCF missed a golden opportunity losing to Baylor at home, but they did keep their at-large hopes alive by beating Oklahoma on Saturday. One of the keys for this team is getting to the FT line, as they really struggle to score the basketball, ranking just 188th in offensive efficiency. In their prior 2 wins they’ve attempted a total of 57 FT’s, compared to just 16 in their prior 2 losses. When they’re turning the ball over and settling for jumpers they struggle mightily to score, but when they’re in attack mode as they were vs Oklahoma good things happen. They’re always going to defend, it’s all about finding ways to score for this group. Resumé wise they’re still a ways away, with just a 4-7 Q1/2 record and that nasty Q4 loss out there they have lots of work to do. They have some time off before heading to Lubbock on Saturday to face a reeling Texas Tech team. A loss there isn’t going to kill them, as I’m eyeing a 6 game stretch in the coming weeks where they can go on a major run. Until then I see how that plays out I’ll hold on to this scrappy UCF team. 

Kansas St: 14-8 (4-5) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (4-4) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (61) Q1(A): (1-3)

Kansas St is in free fall, there’s really no other way to put it, as they are in the midst of a 4 game losing streak with the most recent being a road loss to lowly Oklahoma St. There’s really not much to feel good about with this team, but there’s one way they can turn this ship around and save their season, beat Kansas. The Jayhawks come in off a massive win over Houston in a classic let down spot that the Wildcats have to be ready to take advantage of Monday night. If they can knock off their rival and pick up a 2nd Q1 win they’ll get right back in the bubble mix. If not, we might as well consider this bubble burst, as they travel to BYU next and that would likely mean falling to 14-10 and just 5-9 in Q1/2 games. While there are still plenty of chances out there, it’s hard to imagine a team that’s on what would be a 6 game losing streak would be able to turn it around and start knocking off top-30 teams in succession. This is a season defining game Monday night for K-State. Let’s see if they show up. 

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–Big East–

Locks:

   

On the Right Track:

Creighton: 16-6 (7-4) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (38) Q1(A): (1-2)

Woah nelly, Creighton just lost a stunning one at home to Butler in a shootout that may have exposed just how much the lack of depth is hurting this Creighton team. Let’s lay it out, because if you don’t already know this team has a big 4 that it leans on almost entirely, which was displayed as dramatically as possible on Friday night. The foursome of Ashworth, Alexander, Scheierman and Kalkbrenner combined for 94 of their 98 points. They played 158 out of a possible 160 minutes. They lost, giving up 99. I know Butler shot the lights out and played an incredible game, but you can’t tell me the minutes played isn’t starting to wear on this group. They have to play soft defensively to avoid foul trouble, and just generally have to hold some effort back to have something left in the tank down the stretch. Despite all of that, they had 2 open Alexander 3’s to take the lead in the dying moments and he left them short. Tired legs will affect you on both ends. I fear this Creighton team may hit a wall, and while they’re sitting in a good position record and resumé wise, they still have 7 Q1 games in the homestretch. On the right track yes, but there’s still time for this thing to unravel if they aren’t careful. The gauntlet continues this coming week with trips to Providence and Xavier on deck, so it could get dicey for these Bluejays.  

Teetering:

Butler: 14-7 (6-5) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (13) Q1(A): (2-3)

Butler is on quite a roll right now, winners of 4 in a row, none bigger than their shocking upset @ Creighton on Friday night. It was a shootout and one that pushed them from out of the field to into the field by my estimation, giving them a 2nd elite win and 3rd overall Q1 W. More impressive is the fact they did it without starting PG Posh Alexander, putting on an offensive clinic despite his absence, turning it over just 5 times and going 13-22 from 3. It’s a hodgepodge of transfers that seem to be gelling better and better, and while they don’t play defense, their offensive ability behind guys like DJ Davis and Jahmyl Telfort makes them a really fun watch and has them on the verge of the program’s first tourney berth since 2018. It’s a tough road ahead in the Big East though, with 7 of their final 8 being Q1/2 games. They have to go to UConn and then host Providence this week, the latter being one of those Q2 chances you just have to capitalize on if you want to be in the field. An 0-2 week could undo the work they just did on Friday night, so that home tilt next Saturday will be absolutely massive. 

St. John’s: 13-9 (5-6) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (5) Q1(A): (0-5)

St. John’s has now lost 5 out of 6 and are really struggling through the difficult Big East Schedule. On the plus side all of those games were Q1 losses, but they’ve gone from 7-3 in Q1/2 to now just 7-8. We could be looking at a monumental collapse here if they can’t stop the bleeding, as they’ve gone from pretty solidly in to the last 4 byes for me. They get a chance to reset with DePaul coming to the Garden, but after that it ramps right back up with a trip to Marquette. That home game vs UConn was such a massive opportunity to stave off any shot at missing the dance, but now you’re sitting 0-5 in Q1(A) games and you have that Q3 loss sitting out there. It’s a resumé that’s getting uglier and uglier and if they only win their home games the rest of the year they’ll be sitting just 3-10 in Q1. Not going to be good enough. It’s surprising, but Pitino and this St. John’s team are on the ropes right now. 

Seton Hall: 14-8 (7-4) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (1-3) Q3: (2-2) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (36) Q1(A): (2-2)

The Pirates were able to end their 3 game skid thanks to DePaul showing up on the schedule. It’s always nice to take out some frustration on the punching bag of the league, however, it doesn’t do much in terms of boosting the resumé, which at the moment is looking kind of rough. While they have some massive wins over Marquette and UConn, they have a worse record in Q2/3 than they do in Q1. I would sentence them to Dayton if it ended today, so they’re right there on the cut line with 9 games remaining. The good news is Kadary Richmond returned in the DePaul game, albeit off the bench, it still is encouraging to see him back in action. They get another confidence builder with Georgetown coming in and then head to a desperate Villanova team on Saturday. Must-win followed by a massive opportunity. They don’t have to beat Villanova, but man it would go a long way toward making this feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. 

Providence: 14-8 (5-6) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (39) Q1(A): (2-3)

We knew this was going to be a rough week for this Providence group, with trips to UConn and Villanova it was almost assuredly going to be an 0-2 week. That’s exactly what happened and now they’re right on the cut line, as I have them playing in Dayton and others could easily have them out. It’s close, but it’s hard to see them going on a run as they struggle to score so much more without star Bryce Hopkins. They are elite defensively, but without him as a go-to scorer what was already a bad offensive team has gotten that much worse. They have a massive opportunity to make me eat my words this week though with Creighton coming in. If they can win that and rack up a 4th Q1 win that will go a long way in their search for an at-large bid, but a loss would be detrimental, especially with a trip to a white hot Butler on deck. Circle that game Wednesday night, season could be on the line for the Friars. 

Villanova: 12-10 (5-6) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (2-3) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (8) Q1(A): (2-3)

After losing to Marquette to make it 5 L’s in a row Villanova was able to finally end their skid by beating Providence at home. It’s still just a 2-6 stretch that has put them on the outside looking in, and while we discussed the lack of results in spite of all of the talent last week it bears repeating. They brought in All-Conference players Tyler Burton and TJ Bamba to go with a strong returning cast and this is all they can muster? I’m not sure how long Neptune is going to be around, because in his 2 years here it has been a strong departure from what we were used to under Jay Wright. They’re now on track to miss back-to-back NCAA tourney’s for the first time since Wright’s first breakthrough bid with the team in ’05. The schedule isn’t going to let up either, as they head to Xavier who is 5-2 in their last 7 and then host a gritty Seton Hall team. 0-2 and it’s curtains for Nova, but even a split of those 2 games is going to keep them on the outside looking in so it’s starting to feel like must-win time for this group. 

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–Pac-12–

Locks: 

On the Right Track:

Utah: 15-7 (6-5) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (20) Q1(A): (2-3)

The Utes picked up another solid win at home, handling Colorado in their lone game since we last met. They’re a clear tournament quality team in my opinion just watching, and thanks to their depth continue to win despite some injuries throughout the season. The most recent revelation is transfer Deivon Smith, who was injured to start the year and is now in the starting lineup in place of injured Rollie Worster. He had 17/11/9 the other night, falling just 1 assist short of a triple double and likely would’ve had it if the rest of the team shot just a little better from 3. More good news is 7-footer Lawson Lovering was back after missing 4 games and had 9 points and 8 boards off the bench. Resumé wise the Utes are now 7-7 in Q1/Q2 games, which is good enough for them to feel safe as of now, and they have their last Q1 chance for a while in a massive one vs Arizona on Thursday night. Win that and there won’t be much to worry about. 

Teetering:

Washington St: 16-6 (7-4) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS (74) Q1(A): (1-2)

I talked about the surprise of Wazzu a week ago, but man Kyle Smith deserves a ton of credit for what he’s done with the Cougars. They went on the road and knocked off Washington in OT, with rising star FR Myles Rice leading the way with 18/5/5. They are now 6-1 in their last 7, beating Arizona/Utah/Colorado in the process and should be unanimously in the field right now at 7-5 in Q1/2 games. It’s as unexpected a roster as you’ll find, with guys from all over the world including Australia, Nigeria, Macedonia and France, as HC Smith has done an incredible job building through the international pool of talent. They continue to improve their resumé but now enter a stretch where they need to handle business. Their next 4 include 3 games that would be devastating to lose, starting with a trip to lowly Oregon St. Win that and then a loss @ Oregon won’t be too bad, especially if they come back home and sweep Cal and Stanford. 3-1 over the next 4, that’s what we’re looking for here for Wazzu. 

Oregon:  15-7 (7-4) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS (71) Q1(A): (1-4)

We spoke last week about the Duck’s 8 game stretch they were entering and my belief was they needed to go at least 7-1. Well, they’re now 1-1 dropping a game @ UCLA after going to USC and winning. They need to reel off 6 in a row now as the chances to bolster the resumé are all coming in their final 3 games, so they just need to avoid disaster the rest of the month. They are still trying to get healthy, now down Keeshawn Barthelemy and Nate Bittle who had returned but missed this weeks games due to illness. Bittle should be back to rejoin Dante in the frontcourt, and they need those 2 healthy for this run as they welcome both Washington and Washington St to Eugene this week. While those aren’t Q1 chances, they are Q2 and give the Ducks a chance to improve that Q1/2 record from 4-6 to 6-6 which is imperative at this stage. Huge week for Oregon to stay alive. 

Colorado: 15-7 (6-5) — Q1: (1-4) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (72) Q1(A): (0-4)

The Buffs lost a tough one @ Utah and now all eyes are on this week, as they have to get through Arizona St and then welcome Arizona to Boulder. That game on Saturday night is where all of their at-large hopes lie right now as they have just 1 Q1 W, which is just simply not enough. It’s their final Q1 chance until March 7 when they head to Oregon, not one you want to count on winning. They were once again without FR Cody Williams Saturday, who apparently took an elbow to the face in practice forcing him out. Ideally he will be back, they’ll take care of Arizona St and then they just have to find a way to beat Arizona. Do that and they’re up to 6-7 in Q1/2 with a massive win over a top-10 team on the resumé. That will have them right on the doorstep, if not in, and with very winnable games the rest of the way it could be the start of a huge run for a team I think is talented enough to pull it off. 

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–SEC–

Locks: 

On the Right Track:

South Carolina: 19-3 (7-2) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (9-0) SOS (88) Q1(A): (1-2)

It’s high time we start respecting these Gamecocks, as they just find ways to win and just had one of the most impressive weeks you can have. They went into Knoxville and beat Tennessee, holding them to just 59 points, and then went to Georgia and avenged 1 of their 2 SEC losses. They now hold wins over both Kentucky and Tennessee and are 7-2 in Q1/2 games, that’s very impressive. While the SOS is not strong just yet, it’s going to keep climbing as they rip through SEC play, with 5 more Q1 games on the schedule with a couple more Q2 as well. Nobody saw this type of success coming from this team, with a hodgepodge of transfers and returnees alike, it’s amazing how fluidly they play offensively. The ball moves, no 1-on-1 basketball, evidenced by their 25 assists on 29 made shots vs Georgia and they’re now top-20 in assists per made FG. Unbelievable for a team that entered the season with so much turnover. Credit to these guards and HC Lamont Paris. This week they get Ole Miss and Vandy at home. Go 2-0 in those games are we’re seriously going to be thinking about locking South Carolina at 21-3 and 8-2 in Q1/2 games.

Alabama: 16-6 (8-1) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (6) Q1(A): (1-4)

The Tide did exactly what they needed to do this week, going to Georgia and picking up a road win and then coming home and blowing out Mississippi St. It was a very impressive week in which they picked up 2 Q2 wins and keep themselves headed in the right direction. They’re now 10-1 in their last 11 games after starting just 6-5, and they’re absolutely loved by the computers at this stage, ranking top-10 regardless of where you look. They’re on fire but have their toughest game left on the schedule up next as they head to rival Auburn in a rematch that will be must-watch television. They won by 4 at home so you know both the Auburn players and crowd will be licking their chops as the Tide come in on Wednesday night. A loss isn’t going to hurt them all that much, but what’s more important is that they bounce back and beat LSU on the road on Saturday. An 0-2 week would leave them just 7-8 in Q1/2 games which wouldn’t put them in trouble but would make picking up a few more quality wins very important. 

Auburn: 18-4 (7-2) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (85) Q1(A): (0-2)

Auburn took another step toward proving they are as good as the computers are telling us, finally picking up a Q1 win beating Ole Miss on the road after dismantling Vandy at home. It was a great week and they’ll be eager for even more as rival Bama comes to town in a chance to avenge their loss just 2 weeks ago in Tuscaloosa. The Ole Miss win was made more impressive by the fact they were down 9 at halftime, giving up 44 1st half points. They locked down defensively, allowing just 33 in the second half and outscored the Rebels 56-33. Very impressive on both ends, led by All-Conference center Johni Broome who is having a hell of a year. He alongside Jaylin Williams dominated the paint, accounting for 31 points and 14 boards. That’s who Auburn is, a tough defensive team that looks to dominate the glass and score inside. It’s a great recipe for success, and they’ll look to continue this run against Bama and then on the road vs Florida. A tough week but chances to get to lock territory if they can go 2-0. 

Kentucky: 15-6 (5-4) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS (63) Q1(A): (2-3)

This Kentucky team is a little bit of a mess right now as they just lost 2 home games to Florida and Tennessee despite scoring over 90 points in each game. They are a team full of supremely talented scorers but none of them have any clue how to play defense. They can’t keep the ball in front, overplay and get out of position and generally just don’t move with urgency on that end. The result is clean looks and offensive rebounds for the other team which undoes everything they do well on the offensive end. The silver lining is they were without starting PG DJ Wagner in both losses, but I’m not convinced he is going to add much defensively. They’re now just 5-5 in Q1/2 games with a bad loss to UNC Wilmington out there as well, so while we all can see how talented they are and how much potential they have, it needs to start coming together quickly for Calipari. They have a bit of a reprieve as they head to Vandy midweek, but it’s right back to good teams who are desperate for a win as they host Gonzaga on Saturday. The Zags are down this year but they are also desperate for a big win. Things could get ugly if they slip up this week, especially against Vandy. 

Teetering:

Ole Miss: 18-4 (5-4) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (83) Q1(A): (0-3)

Not a lot of people believed in this roster heading into the season, but with Chris Beard at the helm it was foolish to think they wouldn’t be competing for a tourney berth. Beard came in and immediately hit the portal, bringing guys like Allen Flannigan, Jaylen Murray, Brandon Murray, and Moussa Cisse to surround returners Brakefield and Murrell. This man just knows how to coach ball, and while they haven’t quite had the opportunity on their schedule to prove they are as good as their record says they are, it’s coming. They have just 2 Q1 wins to this point, but the most recent win @ Texas A&M proved they belong in the field and as it stands they are firmly in that 8-9 seed range. This week the opportunities come knocking, with both Mississippi St and Auburn coming to Oxford, it’s high time to start cashing in. 

Mississippi St: 14-8 (3-6) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-1) SOS (16) Q1(A): (2-5)

Well Mississippi St is sliding further and further down the seed list as they keep racking up road losses. While both of their losses this week were Q1, it still is a bit concerning as this team’s identity had been strong defense and toughness, but they gave up 86 and 99 in their two losses. That will have to correct itself, and they finally have a softening of the schedule with which they can build some momentum, with 3 of the next 4 at home and the road game being @ Mizzou. They should win 4 straight pretty comfortably, with only the Ole Miss rematch falling in Q2 it’s not going to help much but a loss would definitely hurt. They have to get back to defending or else this train may be headed off the tracks, we’ll see how it goes. 

Texas A&M: 13-8 (4-4) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (1-2) Q4: (5-0) SOS (19) Q1(A): (2-5)

A&M survived at home vs Florida in a game they had to have, eeking out just a 1 point win with Florida having multiple attempts to take the lead before the buzzer. This team is one of the worst shooting teams in the Country, but they survive by being the best offensive rebounding team there is. What they miss is their post presence Julius Marble, who has been out all year due to some sort of team violation. There’s no real sign he will come back, but man that would alleviate some pressure that’s on these guards to try and make plays offensively. Wade Taylor and Tyrese Radford are good players, but everything is on them to create offense and the result is they’re 350th in effective FG%. They’re now 7-6 in Q1/2 games, but that ugly 1-2 record in Q3 is weighing them down and means they still need to add more quality wins to get in. They have a huge week ahead, with a dangerous game @ Mizzou that they can’t afford to lose and then a gigantic opportunity with Tennessee coming to College Station. If they can go 2-0 this week, knocking off Tennessee, they’ll feel create much needed separation from the bubble cut line. 

Florida: 15-7 (5-4) — Q1: (1-7) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (35) Q1(A): (1-2)

Last week we said the Gators were going to have to pick up a road win or 2 down the stretch if they wanted to have a chance, and that’s just what they did. They went to Rupp Arena and knocked off Kentucky to pick up their 1st Q1 W, and while they fell to A&M after that it’s still a very successful week to pick up that big of a win. The resumé is still pretty spotless, they just need to find a way to rack up a few more quality wins and they will be on track to get in the dance. They have some time off and then a massive chance with Auburn coming to the Swamp, with a chance to pick up their 2nd Q1 win and really put themselves in a good position to get in, especially if they can hold serve until late February and knock off Bama at home as well. The opportunities are there for the Gators, it’s all about taking advantage. 

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–Mountain West–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Utah St: 17-3 (7-2) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS (80) Q1(A): (1-2)

The Aggies split the week, handling their business at home vs San Jose St and then losing @ San Diego St. It’s nothing to hang your head about but it does bring them back even with Boise St in the Conference standings and drops them to just 2-3 in Q1. Overall, the 5-0 Q2 record brings them to 7-3 in Q1/2 which is very strong, so they’re in no danger as it stands, but could still use some quality wins to make me feel like we can lock this one up. I spoke last week about the coaching job Sprinkle has done, but it deserves reiterating as this team was a complete rebuild and is now in prime position to win the Mountain West. They have 4 of the other 5 contenders left at home, with only Colorado St on the road. They could realistically finish the season 8-1 and be sitting 25-4 when it’s all said and done. That would be an incredible feat, and it all starts this week with home games vs Nevada and Boise St. Win those and they’d be right there in lock territory with 7 to go. 

San Diego St: 15-5 (6-3) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (7) Q1(A): (2-4)

San Diego St took another step toward lock territory with a home win over Utah St, making that their 3rd Q1 win. Although they did lose @ Colorado St, the bounce back win was huge and they set themselves up for quite a run here if they can capitalize this week. They go to Air Force next, which should be an easy win even though it’s on the road. After that it’s to Nevada, which will be a huge game and one that if they can win I would probably lock them up, as they return home next week for a pair of very winnable games vs Colorado St and New Mexico. They’re just 1-3 in MW road games but if they can go 2-0 this week this will be the last we hear about the Aztecs as they’ll be locked up. 

Colorado St: 15-5 (5-4) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS (41) Q1(A): (1-2)

The Rams picked up a massive win at home vs San Diego St and then go the road monkey off their back by taking care of Fresno St on Saturday. Isaiah Stevens was incredible vs the Aztecs, scoring 20 points and dishing 6 assists and his ability to create for both himself and his teammates is what gives this Colorado St a real shot at making noise in March. Nique Clifford is as good a Robin to Stevens’ Batman as well, and he had 20/10/5 vs San Diego St. That 1-2 punch is as good as it gets and they’re now up to 7-4 in Q1/2 which puts them in a great position. They head back home for 2 more winnable games this week, with the first being a Q2 chance vs Boise St. Go 2-0 this week and they’ll likely join San Diego St in lock territory as they’d have far too much going for them to be undone with just 7 remaining. 

Boise St: 14-6 (7-2) — Q1: (5-4) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS (33) Q1(A): (2-1)

Absolutely gigantic week for the Broncos as they stole one on the road vs New Mexico and then undressed Air Force (thank you for your service). They now are tied with Utah St atop the Conference and are in a wildly better position at 7-5 in Q1/2. Max Rice was unbelievable in the New Mexico win, putting up 35 points with 7 made threes. He’s the x-factor for them, as they can really struggle to score so having a guy that can score consistently is massive for their success. They now have the toughest week on their schedule coming up with road trips to Colorado St and Utah St on the docket. I would imagine they go 0-2, which would make them 7-7 in Q1/2 which is certainly still good enough to be in. After that they should go on a run, potentially winning 6 straight before ending the season @ San Diego St. A 6-3 finish and they’ll glide into the field in my opinion, we’ll see if they can pull it off. 

Teetering:

New Mexico: 17-4 (6-3) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS (107) Q1(A): (0-2)

After last week there was some chirping calling for the Lobos to be viewed in a better light, and they had a perfect opportunity to achieve that this week with a home game vs fellow bubble team Boise St. It did not go so well, as they dropped a huge home game to the Broncos in their lone game since we last met. They had been improved defensively on their recent run, but gave up 86 points on 72 possessions to a Boise St team that barely cracks the top-100 offensively. They did however get some help by having some home wins over UC Irvine and LA Tech flip into Q2 to make things look a little prettier, but it’s still an overall weak resumé beyond those 2 wins vs San Diego St and Utah St. They have 2 must-wins this week as they head to Wyoming and then host UNLV, both of which are Q3 games where an L would just add a blemish to an already hurting resumé. Now is not the time to relax. 

Nevada: 16-5 (4-4) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (0-2) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS (119) Q1(A): (0-2)

Nevada has ground to cover right now, with just a 3-4 Q1/2 record they need to start picking up wins over the top dogs in the MW. The schedule did nothing to help them since we last met, as they played just once at home vs San Jose St, a game they won by 30. They do have 2 opportunities this week as they head to Utah St and then get San Diego St at home. There’s really not much more to say this week about the Wolfpack, they need to win games against good teams or they’ll be in the NIT, pretty simple. A loss @ Utah St won’t kill them, but if they can’t convert a home Q1 chance vs the Aztecs they may as well kiss their at-large chances goodbye. This is a massive week for Nevada, we’ll just have to see if they can capitalize. 

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–American–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Florida Atlantic: 18-4 (8-1) — Q1: (3-1) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (5-1) SOS (109) Q1(A): (1-1)

FAU has now won 7 straight after going through a bit of a rough patch with losses to Florida Gulf Coast and Charlotte. The American Conference offers little resistance to a team this good, but they do go on the road this week to face a UAB team that has been rolling as of late. The Owls are on the verge of locking, thanks to a strong non-conference group of wins highlighted by the one over Arizona. They just need to keep playing well and avoid disaster, which in a Conference like this means winning most of your games. Suffering too many losses in the Q2/3 range could make their at-large chances a little questionable. Wins over UAB and Wichita St this week could be enough to lock them up, but with how they’ve played down to the level of their competition this year I wouldn’t be shocked if they’re upset. 

Teetering: 

Memphis: 16-6 (5-4) — Q1: (1-2) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (5-1) SOS (122) Q1(A): (0-2)

Memphis was finally able to end their losing streak at 4 games, beating Wichita St at home after losing another horrible one to Rice. They had non-conference wins over Virginia, Clemson and A&M but that 4 game stretch of bad losses has now put them in real danger to miss the tourney. I have them out right now, but they certainly have the talent to turn the ship back around if they can move past whatever it is that caused this issue. I’m not sure what makes a team like this lose 4 games to bad teams after starting the season 15-2…one of the wildest swings I can remember. It feels like they have to go 2-0 this week to put this behind them, with a road game vs the worst team in the Conference Temple and then back home vs Tulane. It’s hard to call them must-wins but at this point I can’t see them recovering if they can’t win these. 

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–WCC–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track: 

Saint Mary’s: 17-6 (9-0) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-2) Q4: (7-0) SOS (94) Q1(A): (2-1)  

The Gaels picked an absolutely massive win @ Gonzaga on Saturday, going into Spokane and grinding out a tough win on the road. They now lead the Zags by 2 games in the WCC and have the rematch at home still to come. They have built this resumé up to the point that they are looking pretty good at this stage, now sitting 6-4 in Q1/2 games. It’s been an unreal turnaround after starting 2-5, going 15-1 with wins over Colorado St and Gonzaga on the road. They are now up to a top-15 defense, and while the offense still lags behind they were able to hit enough shots to get by Gonzaga and are sitting pretty now. They play at Portland and Pacific this week, 2 really bad teams that they just need to handle business against. They still have San Francisco and Gonzaga at home on the schedule, but it’s very possible they finish 16-0 in the WCC which would be incredible. 

Teetering:

Gonzaga: 15-6 (7-2) — Q1: (0-5) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS (101) Q1(A): (0-2)

Gonzaga is on the ropes now, losing at home to Saint Mary’s in what was their lone opportunity fo pick up a Q1 win at home. Now they have 2 more shots, on the road this week @ Kentucky and in the rematch with Saint Mary’s to end the year. The fact is this Gonzaga team is just not what we’re used to, as they really struggle to shoot the 3 and have to almost entirely rely on paint points. They were just 3-14 from 3 against St. Mary’s, and no that they’re 0-5 in Q1 it’s hard to carve out an at-large path. The only way I can see it happening is for them to go to Kentucky and win this Saturday. They’ll get to beat up on Portland first, but they’ll be in full desperation mode on Saturday as they look to land that signature win they desperately need. 

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–A-10–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Dayton: 18-3 (8-1) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (79) Q1(A): (0-1)

The Nation’s best mid-major team bounced back from a tough loss @ Richmond last week going 2-0 at home. DaRon Holmes should be a household name at this point, so I’m going to use my only platform to shed light on what has been an All-American caliber season from the Flyers big man. He’s now 2nd in Kenpom’s POY standings, behind Edey of course, and is now damn near 60% from 2 and 40% from 3. He had 25 and 34 respectively this week and is averaging 20 and 8 with over 2 blocks pg. The man is a beast, a kind of guy that can carry a team in March, especially with a surrounding cast that is now top-10 in 3-point shooting at 39%. They obviously have weaknesses defensively, but with Holmes anchoring things they are a legitimate threat to do some damage in the tourney. They just have to keep handling business in a Conference that is full of land mines and zero opportunity. This week is two Q2 games @ St. Joe’s and VCU. Two teams they should beat but also very tricky games the schedule. A 2-0 week and we’re feeling real confident in this resumé. 

Teetering:

Richmond: 16-6 (8-1) — Q1: (1-2) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS (124) Q1(A): (1-2)

The Spiders had won 11 straight games, including the home upset of Dayton to get themselves onto the bubble. They stubbed their toe a bit this week losing @ VCU, dropping them to 6-5 in Q1/2 with just 1 Q1 win. Transfer guard Jordan King has been a revelation, and his ability to score is about the only reliable offense they have, as they really struggle to score and have to rely on their defense. They are right in that first 4 out, next 4 out grouping in my mind, and while some have them in I think they need another big win or 2 to feel worthy of getting in. The bad news is they really don’t have the opportunity to do that until the final game of the season @ George Mason. It would be a very interesting case if they were able to run the table and finish the season 25-6, as the SOS is going to remain bad but would that massive win over Dayton be enough to get them in? It’s hard to tell, and would likely be dependent on what the other teams on the bubble are able to do. Either way, the win over Dayton surely gives them at-large life as we enter February. 

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–Others–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

Indiana St: 19-3 (11-1) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS (123) Q1(A): (0-2)

The Sycamores have earned there way onto the bubble watch, as they avenged their loss to Drake and are now 4-3 in Q1/2. This is a fun team that can really score, led by PG Isaiah Swope and big man Robbie Avila, they are a top-10 3 point shooting team and top-15 in overall offensive efficiency. Avila is a guy who will take the Country by storm if Indiana St can find their way into the tourney, as he has one of the more unique physiques you’ll find in college basketball, and more importantly he can ball. If they can just keep up the firepower and not fall asleep during any of these remaining conference games they would have the strongest case of any of these mid-major schools. At 27-3 I can’t imagine they would miss the tourney if they were to lose to Drake or someone in the MVC tourney. It’s all in front of them, but they can’t afford to stain that squeaky clean resumé that is going to be the key selling point if they need an at-large bid. 

Grand Canyon: 20-2 (11-1) — Q1: (1-1) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (11-0) SOS (244) Q1(A): (0-0)

Bryce Drew appears to have built a mid-major juggernaut and they continue to roll through this WAC schedule. What they are hanging their hat on is that win over San Diego St, which continues to look better and better as they rise in the rankings. They aren’t particularly special in any area, but what they do is play in attack mode at all times, ranking top-5 in FTA’s as they move the ball and attack over and over and over. They live at the line, which helps make up for the fact they really struggle to shoot the ball at just 33% from 3. They avenged their 1 conference loss to Seattle and the only other is to a rising South Carolina team. The SOS is weak for sure, but I find it hard to believe a team that would be somewhere around 30-3 would be left out if they lost in the WAC tourney. I hope it doesn’t come to that, but they need to continue to roll through this schedule so they’re in position in case. 

James Madison: 19-3 (8-3) — Q1: (1-0) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (2-2) Q4: (14-0) SOS (319) Q1(A): (1-0)

The Dukes need to run the table, and may be too far away given the losses to App St, but their win over Michigan St put them on the map and gives them a sliver of hope. They are led by Terrance Edwards and BC transfer TJ Bickerstaff, but somehow just can’t seem to get by App St. The good news is they always say it’s tough to beat a team 3 times, which App St will likely need to do to win the Sun Belt Conference. 27-3 plus a couple wins in the Conference tourney would make a compelling case if they were to drop another one to App St. They sit in a similar position as Grand Canyon, hanging on to that one top-25 win and hopeful that racking up a ton of wins in Conference would be enough to make up for the lack of tough games on the schedule. They have to take care of business, but the committee could be faced with several tough decisions if these mid-majors run the table and then lose in the Conference tourney’s. 

McNeese St: 15-3 (8-1) — Q1: (0-1) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (10-1) SOS (299) Q1(A): (0-1)

Will Wade has come to McNeese St and has put together an elite offensive team, now ranked 2nd in the country in 3 point shooting %. They’re led by TCU transfer Shahada Wells, who is clearly the straw that stirs the drink for the Cowboys. They just suffered a tough Q4 loss that really hurts their at-large chances, but they do have those 3 Q2 wins on their plate over VCU/UAB/Michigan and similar to the few teams above them here they would have an interesting case if they could go unbeaten the rest of the way finishing 24-3. They are so much better than the rest of their Conference I don’t see how they lose their tourney, but it will be interesting to monitor down the stretch. I don’t think we’ve seen this many mid-major teams with great records like this in a while