Entering Week 7:

Heading into Week 1:

*This page will be updated daily – will be updating each team that plays and the date will be posted for each team to indicate it has been updated to include the most recent game.* (Updated 3/17)

Chaos has ensued as seemingly every bid stealing opportunity we were monitoring was cashed in yesterday and now the bubble is as small as it’s ever been. We saw New Mexico, Oregon, NC State, UAB/Temple (American) add to what the A10 started, as we have quickly lost 5 spots to bid-stealers over the last 48 hours or so. We held off on locking some teams, thankfully, as the worst case scenario for bubble teams has played out. We are now looking at teams everyone thought to be safely in heading to Dayton or maybe even out of the field entirely. I have some locks who are now residing in the Last 4 Byes as 9 seeds, seemingly unprecedented. Let’s break it down, one last time. 

We are down to the Last 4 In and First 4 Out, as I just have 8 teams in consideration for the final 4 spots to Dayton right now. Anyone beyond that First 4 Out I have listed as dead. These are all my own projections, and will certainly differ from other prognosticators, but will serve to show you generally who is in a better position than whom at this stage. 

For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), NET SOS and a final category being the Q1(A) record. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 68 teams on the first watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 3/17. Check out my current bracket projection here. 

Bubble Breakdown:

Total Bids: 68

1-bid conferences: 22

Bid Stealers: 5

Locks: 37

Bids Left: 4

Bubble: 8 

---

–ACC–

Locks: 

         

First 4 Out:

Virginia: 23-10 (13-7) — Q1: (2-6) Q2: (8-4) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (78) Q1(A): (1-3) 

Virginia lost a heart breaker last night to NC State, after missing a FT to make it a 4 point game the Wolfpack rushed down and banked in a tying 3 to force OT. Virginia fell in OT and now will have a very nerve wracking wait until Selection Sunday. I currently have them in, but again, you need to be rooting for chalk finishes in these conference tourney’s I mentioned above, as the bubble shrinking could squeeze out a team like Virginia. Right now they cling to their road win over Clemson, neutral site win over Florida as well as home wins over Texas A&M and Wake Forest. It’s not a great group of wins, but the perfect record in Q3/4 is a big plus as well, something few bubble teams can boast. I think the 10-10 record in Q1/2 plus the 0 bad losses will be enough to get them in, but man it’ll be close, especially if things tighten up. Things did in fact tighten up, and now their competition is teams like Michigan St, Mississippi St and Colorado, they just don’t have the wins in my opinion to get in over teams like that. I now have Virginia out, as that O’Connell 3 will haunt UVA fans for years to come.  (3/17)

Dead:

Pitt: 22-11 (12-8) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (6-2) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (83) Q1(A): (1-4)

Pitt fell to UNC in spite of a great effort, and ultimately I think will fall just short of a tourney bid. You certainly can argue at the top Pitt has the edge on a team like Virginia in the good wins category, but essentially everywhere else they lose. They have 2 bad losses to Virginia’s 0, the non-con SOS was damn near the worst in the country at 343rd, and they have fewer total Q1/2 wins. It’s very close, but I have Pitt the first team out of the dance, and with a potential shrinking of available bids anyway, I just don’t see that changing. I reserve the right to be wrong, but at this point I just don’t see them getting in. Thanks to all the chaos Pitt now has no chance as well, sorry Pitt fans.  (3/17)

Wake Forest: 20-13 (11-9) — Q1: (1-7) Q2: (8-5) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (75) Q1(A): (1-2)

Wake is all but dead after the loss to Pitt. There is a chance we’re all shocked on Selection Sunday, but at this point they are very far out of it. (3/15)

---

–Big Ten–

Locks:

                 

Last 4 In:

Michigan St:  19-14 (10-10) — Q1: (3-9) Q2: (6-5) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (22) Q1(A): (2-6) 

Sparty was unable to take down Purdue yesterday afternoon and now will simply have to wait until Sunday to see their fate. I think they’ve done enough to be in the field, as do most, but we’ll want to see just how many bid-stealers we have out there before we lock them up. I still have them in my Last 4 Byes, and with the loss to Purdue they fell to 9-14 in Q1/2, not a great winning %. The committee does stress SOS though, and that’s what they’ll ride along with the 2 elite wins over Illinois/Baylor. If it was a different year they may be out, just look at last season as Oklahoma St missed the tourney at 10-14 in Q1/2. This year, they look like a probable 10 seed barring some crazy events in the AAC/Pac 12. Well, the madness we feared started, and now Sparty fans will have an anxious Selection Sunday after all. I have them playing in Dayton, but it’s definitely way closer than we thought it would be just a mere 24 hours ago. The big wins and SOS should carry them through, but the mass of losses compared to some teams just behind them could leave them as a surprise casualty of the bid-stealers if the committee differs from me.  (3/17)

Dead:

Indiana: 19-14 (10-10) — Q1: (3-9) Q2: (6-4) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (24) Q1(A): (0-7)

The Hoosier are dead, NIT bound most likely. However, the Xavier Johnson injury is about the only hope they have, as maybe the committee will give them some credit for the 1-5 stretch without him in mid-February. Highly unlikely, but maybe. (3/16)

Ohio St: 19-13 (9-11) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (3-5) Q3: (9-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (66) Q1(A): (3-2)

The dream is dead, but what a ride it was for the Buckeyes. From fired HC to almost tourney team with a young interim HC. They went down to the wire with Illinois but just couldn’t pull it off. What a story arc. (3/16)

---

–Big 12–

Locks: 

                

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering: N/A

---

–Big East–

Locks:

      

Last 4 In:

Seton Hall: 20-12 (13-7) — Q1: (5-8) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (32) Q1(A): (3-6)

Seton Hall fell to St. John’s to keep things interesting in the lead up to Selection Sunday, and while I still feel they should be in, the bubble continues to narrow and dropping to 9-11 in Q1/2 puts them squarely in the conversation. Their argument is as follows – Home wins over UConn/Marquette plus road wins over St. John’s/Providence/Butler. Their proclivity for winning away from home is going to help them, as well as being one of just 3 teams to get the best of UConn. The SOS is very strong and the 3 Q1(A) wins is a separator for me. I have them in Dayton, but that means with a few more surprise bid-stealers we could see them fall out. Nervy couple of days for Seton Hall faithful. Thanks to all the bid-stealers I now have Seton Hall as the last team in the field, but my confidence level remains low. They have great wins over UConn, Marquette and then 3 Q1 road wins over St. John’s, Providence and Butler. The committee claims to favor road wins, and that combined with knocking off 2 top-15 teams is what I have carrying them in right now, especially with just the 1 bad loss compared to a Texas A&M who has 5 such losses. It’s close, but to me they should squeak in.  (3/17)

First 4 Out:

St. John’s: 20-13 (11-9) — Q1: (4-10) Q2: (6-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (31) Q1(A): (2-7)

The Johnie’s win streak was snapped at 6 games as they lost to UConn yesterday. Ultimately, I think the late season rally was enough to get it done, as they are now 10-12 in Q1/2, which is a large number of wins. As we’ve mentioned with all of these teams, it can change quickly if the available bids start to dwindle, so we’re going to keep monitoring this situation, as they may end up bounced by a bid-stealer as the weekend progresses. Stay tuned. St. John’s is now right on the cusp, as I see no scenario they are anywhere other than the Last team in or one of the first couple out. Right now I have them as the first team out of the field, but man it’s close between them and Seton Hall. I give the edge to Hall due to the overall wins against high level competition, as the Johnie’s have a win over Creighton and then it falls off a cliff, with just Nova 2x and Utah as the next best wins. Not good enough this year.  (3/17)

Providence: 21-13 (10-10) — Q1: (6-9) Q2: (3-4) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (11-0) SOS: (32) Q1(A): (3-6)

The ride for Providence ends as they lost to a Tyler Kolek-less Marquette after beating Creighton in the previous round. When you look at the overall win total and some of the big time wins it reminds you a lot of a team like Oklahoma St last year. I keep going back to this example because they were 10-14 in Q1/2 a year ago, and missed out on the dance behind a team like Pitt who had fewer good wins but also fewer losses overall. It’s a very good comparison to Virginia this year, who clearly doesn’t have the win totals against elite teams that Providence does, but the committee seems to favor teams with a bit cleaner records, in spite of their insistence that SOS matters. I disagree with it, and if I was seeding the field myself would put Providence in, but based on what I’ve seen through the years I don’t think they’re going to get in. I will be pleasantly surprised if they do, but with the available spots potentially shrinking even more, I just don’t see it. As an update, the Friars are further out of it than before, unfortunately thanks to all the bid-stealing. (3/17)

Dead:

Villanova: 18-15 (10-10) — Q1: (4-11) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (2-3) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (24) Q1(A): (2-6)

Villanova joined Wake Forest/Indiana in the essentially dead but we could be surprised category after losing to a Tyler Kolek-less Marquette last night. It took overtime but this incredibly talented Nova team now looks destined for the NIT. (3/15)

---

–Pac-12–

Locks: 

      

Last 4 In:

Colorado: 24-10 (13-7) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (6-5) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (83) Q1(A): (0-3)

Thanks to the loss last night the Buffs not only failed to secure a bid themselves they also shrunk the bubble by a spot as Oregon earned their way in. I still have them in the dance, heading to Dayton but it will be a nervy Selection Sunday for Colorado fans. I wouldn’t expect them to be any better than the Last 4 in, and given I have them 2nd from the cut line I also wouldn’t be shocked if they miss the field entirely. The negative for their resumé is the Q1 wins aren’t all that impressive, but we’ve seen that be acceptable in the past with the committee. I would favor a team like St. John’s who has a little better win profile, but I’m merely predicting what I think they’ll do, and with the strong metrics to go along with the 10-10 Q1/2 record and no bad losses, I think you can certainly make the argument.  (3/17)

Dead:

Utah: 19-14 (9-11) — Q1: (4-9) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (6-2) Q4: (5-0) SOS (47) Q1(A): (2-4)

Utah, thanks to the loss last night to Colorado, joins the likes of Villanova/Wake Forest, dead but we could be surprised on Sunday. I expect them in the NIT, and feel pretty strong about it. What a fall from as high as a 6 seed a month and a half ago. (3/15)

---

–SEC–

Locks: 

          

Last 4 In:

Mississippi St: 21-13 (8-10) — Q1: (4-9) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (6-1) SOS (37) Q1(A): (3-5)

Mississippi St lost a close battle with Auburn but thanks to the shrinking of the bubble is now likely headed to Dayton. They don’t have a great overall win total at just 8-12 in Q1/2, but those wins in Q1(A) are massive as 3 of them are top-10 NET wins, very strong and should be enough to carry them into the field. It’s certainly going to be close though.  (3/17)

First 4 Out:

Texas A&M: 20-14 (9-9) — Q1: (7-7) Q2: (6-3) Q3: (2-4) Q4: (5-0) SOS (18) Q1(A): (3-4)

A&M’s SEC tourney run came to an end yesterday in an unlikely shootout with Florida. The Aggies have an unbelievable win profile, with wins over Iowa St, Tennessee and Kentucky at the top, plus 4 more Q1 wins including another over Kentucky and Florida as well. The issue is those 4 Q3 losses, and for me that has to mean something. The only scenario in which they missed the tourney is exactly what played out over the last 48 hours, as the bubble shrank by 5 bids and we’re down to really a final 4 bids to Dayton. I have them in the First 4 Out, but I’m sure there will be a group of people who have them in thanks to those wins, and I’d understand it.  (3/17)

---

–Mountain West–

Locks:

             

On the Right Track: N/A

---

–American–

Locks:

 

 

On the Right Track: N/A

---

–WCC–

Locks:

   

On the Right Track: N/A

---

–Others–

Locks: 

 

 

On the Right Track: N/A

DEAD:

Indiana St: 27-6 (17-3) — Q1: (1-4) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (9-0) Q4: (11-1) SOS (129) Q1(A): (0-2)

The Sycamores are now the talk of college basketball, but not for the reason they had hoped for with just 6 days until Selection Sunday. As I’m sure everyone knows they fell to Drake in the Valley championship game and now require at at-large bid to get in the tournament. The question everyone is clamoring for an answer to is will the committee let them in? My gut tells me no, they won’t make it. I want to be clear before I explain why I think this, I absolutely want the Sycamores to be in the field, they’re fun and genuinely a good team in my opinion, as the metrics would suggest. The issue is simply the resumé is not good enough. They have just 1 Q1 win, and are just 5-5 in Q1/2 with a Q4 loss, and as you would expect the SOS is very weak. Honestly it may come down to the non-conference SOS even more specifically, as they just didn’t play many tough games, with just Alabama and Michigan St on the schedule and they lost both by double digits. They had 7 games against 200+ ranked teams in the NET in the non-conference, just not good enough. Teams like Gonzaga/Houston/FAU in the past have had to adjust their non-conference scheduling to front-load the schedule for this exact scenario, and Indiana St just failed to do so. Maybe the success was unexpected, but they’ll likely just be another example that these mid-majors need to schedule tougher in order to get love from the committee. I hope I’m wrong, but I have them out right now and I don’t expect anything to happen that would change that as we go forward. After all of the bid-stealing the dream is truly dead for Indiana St, they’re just not going to get in over teams like Seton Hall, Mississippi St or Michigan St. Too many wins over elite teams by those teams that the Sycamores jsut don’t have.  (3/17)

Most Recent Update: Here

The final week of February is upon us, as the bubble continues to shrink little by little. The one distinction this year seems to be that bubble teams are just not converting on opportunities like they have in the past, with teams like Ole Miss, Virginia, Texas A&M, Utah, Cincy and so-on all dropping games at home that would have been huge wins for their bubble hopes. Teams are running out of opportunities quickly, as we’re just 2 weeks away from the end of the regular season, with 3 or 4 games remaining depending on the team. What it also has created is a situation where anyone doing a bracket projection is struggling to find worthy teams for those last 4 spots. Even teams like Michigan St and Texas A&M who are dropping games left and right still have a chance to get in because nobody else is winning behind them. On the plus side, that means a big win from a team on the fringe could catapult them onto the right side of the bubble. Also, for those keeping track I did in fact breathe quite the sigh of relief when South Carolina win @ Ole Miss, collapse avoided. Looking ahead though every game on the bubble has tremendous weight this time of year, so let’s just get into it and play it all out there as we charge towards March. 

I’m going to assign teams to 3 groups – Locks, On the Right Track and Teetering. Any team left out is not even on the radar, so maybe 4 groups for you sticklers out there. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.

“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.

“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 7-8 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.

“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, all the way to the bottom feeders who are holding on to a glimmer of at-large hope with much to do. Keep in mind, one team that’s teetering may need to go on a huge run to even have a shot while another is just trying to avoid losing a couple games to stay on the right side of the bubble. Positioning can be quite different in this category, but I hope to explain each team’s path week to week. 

For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), NET SOS and a final category being the Q1(A) record. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 68 teams on the first watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 2/26. Check out my current bracket projection here. 

Bubble Breakdown:

Total Bids: 68

1-bid conferences: 19

Locks: 22

Bids Left: 27

Bubble: 38

---

–ACC–

Locks: 

   

On the Right Track:

Clemson: 19-8 (9-7) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (6-2) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (40) Q1(A): (2-2) 

Clemson was able to handle business this past week, beating GA Tech on the road handily and then coming home to beat Florida St. That got them very close to lock territory, and while I probably could go ahead and lock them, the fact they have 4 tough games remaining gives me pause. This is a team that is building momentum as they’re 5-1 in their last 6, but their last 2 losses overall were to Virginia and NC State at home. They have a similar type of game vs a desperate Pitt team coming up this week, so if they fall asleep a little they could lose another Q2 game and then have to travel to ND. That of course is not a game they should lose but the Irish are well coached and play hard, so in spite of their lack of talent they can surprise you, just ask Virginia and VA Tech. All of that being said Clemson is sitting in a good spot right now, with an 8-6 Q1/2 record and with some big time road wins over UNC/Alabama on the resumé, they should feel pretty confident. Just can’t lose 4 straight to end the season, which should be pretty easy if you can just take care of Pitt at home. Then we can lock them up and just worry about seeding come Selection Sunday. 

Teetering:

Virginia: 20-8 (11-6) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (8-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (81) Q1(A): (1-3) 

After going 9-1 over a ten game stretch Virginia has now lost back-to-back games since we last met, and have fallen below .500 in Q1/2 games. They are really struggling offensively, averaging a pathetic 44 points over their previous 3 games, a number no team can succeed with regardless of how good they are defensively. The problem for Virginia is things are not going to get any easier with just 3 to play, as they go on the road twice this week, to BC and Duke. If they can’t find a way to win one of those they would drop 4 straight and fall to just 6-9 in Q1/2 games. That would put them in serious jeopardy with just 1 game remaining at home vs GA Tech, which would be can’t lose as it adds nothing to the resumé. Wednesday night is a pivotal night for Virginia’s at-large hopes, as a loss @ BC with a trip to Duke around the corner would be a devastating blow. If they can just find a way to grind out a win then we can probably breathe a sigh of relief so long as they don’t lose to GA Tech to end the year. 

Wake Forest: 18-9 (10-6) — Q1: (1-4) Q2: (5-5) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (70) Q1(A): (1-2)

The Demon Deacons had a gigantic week, picking up a Q2 win over Pitt first and then getting their biggest win of the season by beating Duke. That finally gave them a high quality win, and they now jump to 6-9 in Q1/2, pulling them closer to a team like Virginia. Some may have them in the tourney, and I could see why with a top-25 rank in the NET, but in my opinion Wake still has some work to do in order to get in. With that being said they have catapulted into being right square in the conversation of the last 4 in/first 4 out group. They have a very scary one up next with a trip to ND, a feisty team that isn’t very talented but if you don’t show up can pull off an upset. That’s a scary one after they had such a great win over Duke, can they stay focused and go get a tough road win? If not, they have a trip to Blacksburg right after that, so while this week was huge for them it could all be undone if they can’t get it done on the road. While I don’t think they absolutely have to go 2-0 this week, that would certainly make things a little easier as they could pick up another Q1 win and start to really have a better case to make with that win @ VA Tech. All eyes on Tuesday though, as that game at ND might not feel as important as the Duke game but it may in fact be as consequential. 

Pitt: 18-9 (9-7) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (6-2) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (84) Q1(A): (1-3)

Pitt was able to hold serve this week, losing in blowout fashion @ Pitt but coming back home to handle VA Tech with ease. While Pitt is playing really well right now, at 8-2 over their previous 10, they still are a decent ways out of the field with just a 5-7 record in Q1/2. Now, they were able to improve that this week from 4-6, so that’s a step in the right direction, but with just 4 games to play in the regular season they are starting to run out of time. This week they travel to Clemson which is a giant opportunity, but a difficult one to say the least. That is their final Q1 game to finish the season, but they do have a Q2 opportunity to follow with BC on the road. If they can push it to 6-8 in Q1/2 then they’re much closer with more chances coming in the ACC tourney. Obviously, a 4-0 finish would put them in a great spot, but that is asking a lot, so we’ll look for a 3-1 finish to keep them alive entering the ACC tourney, especially with how poorly the rest of the bubble teams have been playing. 

---

–Big Ten–

Locks:

       

On the Right Track:

Northwestern: 19-8 (10-6) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-1) SOS: (33) Q1(A): (2-3)

I was very close to locking up Northwestern, but I had to pause as I looked at the Wildcats’ schedule to end the season. While avoiding a disaster this week vs Michigan was huge, they do still have 4 Q1/2 games to close out the season, and while 9-7 in Q1/2 is very solid a 9-11 record and losing 4 straight would certainly put them in the crosshairs as the Big Ten tourney got underway. A quick exit there and we could have a world where they enter Selection Sunday on a 5 game losing streak and just 9-12 in Q1/2. I think that might be enough still, but I would like to ensure that’s not the scenario we’re looking at come Selection Sunday, so we’re going to give Northwestern 1 more week to really solidify this thing. They first have to go to Maryland who has knocked teams off at home this year and is a Q1 game, and then they host Iowa who has been on a tear lately. If they even just split the week we’ll 100% lock them up with 10 Q1/2 wins, but if they go 0-2 we’ll get very nervous as the last week of the season they have two more Q1/2 games so there’s nothing easy the rest of the way.  

Nebraska: 20-8 (10-7) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (64) Q1(A): (1-3)

The Huskers had a massive week, finally getting the road monkey off their backs by winning @ IU and then returned home to handle Minnesota with ease. They are sitting in a good position still thanks to this past week, but overall are still just 7-9 in Q1/2 so they can’t just sit back and feel like they’re a sure thing just yet. They’ll take their now 4 game winning streak into Columbus this week to take on a hot Ohio St team who has beaten both Purdue and Michigan St since making the change at HC. If they’re able to pick up another road win we’ll be able to lock this one up as that would give them 4 Q1 wins. A loss there though and we’ll be watching closely as they host Michigan later in the week, a can’t-lose game for a team trying to avoid any question marks come Selection Sunday. Based on how this season is going I almost expect them to lose @ Ohio St, but if they can prove me wrong that will be more than enough to lock them up. We’ll see if they can get it done on the road. 

Teetering: 

Michigan St:  17-11 (9-8) — Q1: (3-8) Q2: (6-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (21) Q1(A): (1-4) 

Well, last week I said it looked like Izzo had gotten the Spartans rolling at the right time, and boy was I off the mark. Michigan St inexplicably lost 2 home games this week to teams not projected to be in the tournament in Ohio St and Iowa. It was a shocking turn after Sparty won 3 straight games, and they are now squarely on the bubble again as they’re just 9-11 in Q1/2 games. They don’t have any “bad” losses (Q3/4), but being below .500 in Q1/2 almost by definition means you are on the bubble. Given the volume of wins and SOS, when compared to the rest of the bubble, I still think Michigan St is in a safe position as it stands, but if you’re a Sparty fan you have to be getting worried about this team. The news keeps getting worse, as they have just one game this week and it’s @ Purdue…maybe the rest will do them some good, but no team has won in Mackey Arena this year so it’s asking quite a bit if you’re looking for a Michigan St W on Saturday. A loss there would drop them to just 3-9 in Q1 and overall 9-12 in Q1/2 with 2 to play. It’s getting awfully dicey as we approach March, a month Izzo traditionally has this Michigan St team clicking on all cylinders. 

Iowa: 16-12 (6-8) — Q1: (3-8) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (12) Q1(A): (1-6)

The Iowa Hawkeyes have entered the chat, as they went on the road this week and took down Michigan St to pick up a 3rd Q1 win and their first Q1(A) win in 7 tries. They now have an 8-11 record in Q1/2 after losing this weekend @ Illinois, but that certainly qualifies them for the bubble this year, as seemingly nobody can claim a firm hold on the final few spots. That win @ Sparty followed a home win over Wisconsin, so they’ve picked up 2 Q1 wins in the last 2 weeks, coming from the cellar to actually give themselves a glimmer of hope. They are still a horrible team defensively, but they have really gotten it rolling on offense, pushing towards the top-10 on that end as they’ve picked up these big time wins. They also have the 12th ranked SOS which bodes well for them, so the stretch run here could see Iowa come from out of nowhere to maybe get to Dayton. They’ll look to stay alive with a must-win game vs Penn St this week and then they’ll head to Northwestern with a chance to pick up a 4th Q1 win and really put themselves right in contention for one of those last few spots. If they don’t beat Northwestern, they’ll have one remaining opportunity in the last game of the season with a home tilt vs Illinois that will be pivotal. 

Minnesota: 17-10 (8-8) — Q1: (1-6) Q2: (6-3) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (89) Q1(A): (0-2)

I said last week that Minnesota needed at least a 4-2 finish down the stretch to stay in the hunt and they split this week, putting more pressure on them in the final 4 games. They were able to beat Ohio St at home, but couldn’t hang with Nebraska at their place and dropped yet another Q1 game. The reality is they are still pretty far out of it with only 1 Q1 win, but the path is still there, however difficult. They have to travel to Illinois in their next one and then return home to play Penn St. The latter is not going to help much, but it will add a Q3 win to help offset that bad Q3 loss that is hanging out there. They then finish with IU at home and head to Northwestern to finish the season, one that is looking like an almost must-win if they lose again @ Illinois this week. 3-1 to finish is what it’s going to take barring a major run in the Big 10 tourney. It’s an uphill battle for the Gophers, but with opportunity comes hope, and that’s what you have to cling to at this point. 

---

–Big 12–

Locks: 

     

On the Right Track: 

BYU: 19-8 (7-7) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (57) Q1(A): (1-4)

BYU was able to defend their home court this week and pick up a big time Q1 win over Baylor to help bolster this resumé. I was worried about their defense against Baylor, and while they didn’t hold them down completely they still held them to 71 points which was enough. The defensive issues did pop up though as they followed up the big home win with a loss on the road to K-State, a game in which they allowed a pathetically bad offensive team to put up 84 points. It’s kind of stunning how bad they’ve gotten defensively after being top-10 most of the non-conference season, but it seems to just be the reality now. They will get tested big time on that end this week as they head to Allen Fieldhouse for the first time as a member of the Big 12 and then host TCU who loves to get up and down. The Cougars sit in a good spot, but this 2 game slate is one they could easily go 0-2 in, and that would put them at 8-10 in Q1/2 with a trip to Iowa St kicking off their final week of Big 12 play. That game at home vs TCU is going to be critical for them to feel comfy come Selection Sunday, so that’s why we’re holding off on the lock. Losing @ Kansas is fine, just have to hold serve at home and we can lock it up.  

Texas Tech: 19-8 (8-6) — Q1: (5-7) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (37) Q1(A): (3-4)

Texas Tech also defended home court by beating TCU but followed it up by losing to UCF on the road. The TCU game was dangerously close to being a loss as well, as they were down 10 with 6 minutes to go but were able to mount a comeback and pull out a win to stay in good shape for an at-large. They welcomed Warren Washington back from injury in the UCF loss, and hopefully as he gets healthy he can help them on the glass as they gave up an absurd 21 offensive rebounds to TCU, amazing they could win in spite of that. This week looks like a massive one in terms of giving us confidence to just go ahead and lock up this group, as they host Texas and then get WVU on the road. That should be a 2-0 week for a team that’s locked into the NCAA tourney, as you have to be able to defend home court and then you can’t be dropping Q3 games this time of year. With Washington back and Isaacs and Toussaint playing so well in the backcourt I have confidence in the Red Raiders to take care of business this week and move on to worrying about where they’ll end up seed wise come Selection Sunday. 

Teetering:

Oklahoma: 19-8 (7-7) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (51) Q1(A): (2-5)

We’ve been tracking this final push for Oklahoma as it was an absolute gauntlet that we feared could send the Sooners into a spiral straight to the NIT. They took one step toward quelling those fears by going to Oklahoma St and squeaking out a win in OT thanks to a ridiculous game-winning 3 by Javion McCollum. It was a bit of a miracle but you can’t apologize for a W on the road in the Big 12, and it helps them stay on track. The scary stretch of the final 7 is about to get under way though as their final 4 games are all Q1/2 with 3 of them being Q1, and they’re off to just a 1-2 start to that final 7. This week they head to Iowa St, basically an L already as nobody has won in Ames this year, then they host Houston, the #1 team in the Country per every analytical system on the internet. I would almost bet on them going 0-2 in those games at this point, and while you could argue they should be able to put up a fight vs Houston I am not sure a team who is this bad offensively really has much of a chance against that vaunted defense. I would predict we are looking at an Oklahoma team that is 19-10 this time next week and just 7-10 in Q1/2, which would put them squarely in the bubble conversations with 2 more difficult games on tap. They can surprise me and beat Houston to prevent the collapse, but I’m thinking a collapse is more likely at this point than not. 

TCU: 19-8 (8-6) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (41) Q1(A): (2-5)

The Horned Frogs were oh so close to knocking off Texas Tech on the road but were able to bounce back and get an easy home win over Cincy to finish a strong week. They are now 3-1 in their last 4 and, unlike Oklahoma, have a ton of momentum as we enter the stretch run of the season. They also has some legitimate opportunities to continue to add to this resumé with Baylor coming to Fort Worth next and then heading to BYU who has proven to be very beatable lately. I wouldn’t expect TCU to sweep these 2 by any means, but if they can add yet another Q1 win by beating Baylor at home that will go a long way. It will be tough as Baylor comes in looking for revenge, but it’s a huge opportunity nonetheless. On the flip side there’s a decent chance they drop both this week, which would see them fall to just 7-10 in Q1/2 and all of a sudden we would have to be worrying about TCU as we enter the final week of the season. It’s a 2 game stretch that could see them in vastly different positions depending on how they perform, so to say it’s an important week is a bit of an understatement. 

Texas: 17-10 (6-8) — Q1: (4-7) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (15) Q1(A): (2-7)

Texas did exactly what we expected this past week, beating K-State at home and then losing on the road to Kansas. That keeps them on the right side of the bubble, but just barely as I have them in the last 4 byes as it stands. They were hurt this past week by the fall of Cincy and Baylor as those wins have dropped out of the Q1(A) category and dropped them to just 2-7 in those games. Obviously, they’re still Q1 wins but when you just look at the resumé as a snapshot this week vs last it got a bit worse in that regard. They’re now just 6-9 in Q1/2 games, and while they are universally in the field as of today, they certainly shouldn’t feel confident. Matters are only made worse when you look at the 4 games remaining, as they head to Texas Tech/Baylor and then host Oklahoma St/Oklahoma. If they can’t win on the road then that 2-2 split would make them just 7-11 in Q1/2 games entering the Big 12 tourney. A first round exit and you’re sitting at 19-13 and just 7-12 in Q1/2. That’s going to make for a very uncomfortable Selection Sunday for the Longhorns. Obviously a road win @ Texas Tech this week would be huge, so all eyes on Lubbock Tuesday night as that one means a lot to both teams. 

Kansas St: 16-11 (6-8) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (4-4) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (61) Q1(A): (2-4)

Last week we laid out exactly how K-State needed to finish in order to have a shot at this thing and they followed that script to start thing off. They lost @ Texas, we factored that in, but the win vs BYU was the big one they needed as they picked up a 3rd Q1 win and 2nd Q1(A) as they continue to fight to climb back up the bubble list and enter the true conversations. Arthur Kaluma had his best game of the season at the perfect time, putting up 28 and 10 as he fights to get back to the NCAA tourney after transferring from Creighton who is in a much better position than his new team. Overall, they’re still just 2-7 over their last 9 so my confidence remains low, but they took their 1st step toward pulling this off by beating BYU. The next one will be after they beat WVU at home on Monday, as they travel to fellow bubble team Cincinnati. If they’re able to go 2-0 this week and pick up a road Q1 win they would move to 8-10 in Q1/2 and have big time life as they enter the final week of the regular season. 

Cincinnati: 16-11 (5-9) — Q1: (4-7) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (2-2) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (42) Q1(A): (2-6)

Cincy suffered a crushing blow to their at-large hopes this week as they dropped one at home to Oklahoma St. That amounts to a Q3 loss, and they followed that up with a road loss to TCU as they fall to just 5-9 in Q1/2 with 2 Q3 losses hanging out there. It’s very bleak for the Bearcats now, as they are going to need to go on quite a run to salvage this thing. What makes it even worse is they next head to Houston, basically can chalk that one up as a loss, so they’ll head into their final 3 games needing to win all 3. That means this week beating K-State at home, which would pull them to 6-10 in Q1/2 if K-State can stay in the top-75. That would give them a tiny glimmer of hope that would rest on beating Oklahoma on the road, so still not very likely but it’s possible. Not much left to say for a team that is near the bottom of the bubble at this stage, just have to find a way to finish 3-1.

---

–Big East–

Locks:

      

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

Providence: 18-9 (9-7) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (10-0) SOS: (50) Q1(A): (2-4)

Providence had just one game since we last met and it was a great success as they went on the road and beat Xavier to grab their 5th Q1 win. That win moves them to 8-9 in Q1/2 and frankly I can’t imagine how anyone would have them out of the field at this point, just look at the records yourself. Not only do they hold 5 Q1 wins but 3 of those happen to be teams I have in the lock category (Marquette/Creighton/Wisconsin). If you see a bracket page without the Friars in I would go ahead and disregard them for the remainder of forever. All of that being said the season isn’t over, so the Friars will need to continue to win the games they’re supposed to, starting this week with a home game vs Villanova that is big for both teams. That game follows a trip to Marquette (assuming a loss there), so splitting the week and moving to 9-10 in Q1/2 should keep them on the right side of the bubble as we move into March. 

Seton Hall: 18-9 (11-5) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (2-2) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (52) Q1(A): (2-4)

Seton Hall continues to roll as they picked up their 5th win in 6 games in their lone matchup since last edition, beating Butler at home to add another Q2 win. They hit a skid at the end of January when Kadary Richmond went down for a couple games, but with him back in the lineup and leading the charge offensively they have played their way into the field for me at 8-7 in Q1/2 games. I know they have those 2 Q3 losses out there but they were quite a while ago and I think it’s obvious to anyone who understands basketball they have developed into a tournament worthy team. Going 11-5 in 16 games in this year’s Big East is not something you can ignore and for me that is able to make up for those early season slip ups. With all of that said they have as tough a week as you could imagine in this Conference as they head to Creighton and then to UConn. Let’s just keep it real, they’re probably going to go 0-2 this week. That will drop them to 8-9 in Q1/2 and probably have them back on the fringes, but nobody panic. They finish the season with Nova at home and then DePaul so they’d have a chance to bounce back and pull even at 9-9 in Q1/2. I think the 2-2 finish would be enough to keep them in as we enter the Big East tournament for sure, but with how Nova is playing that win is not a guarantee. We will see what it looks like this time next week, as they could surprise with a road win, but I’d expect to be looking at that matchup with Nova as a must-win. 

Butler: 15-12 (7-10) — Q1: (3-11) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (1) Q1(A): (2-6)

I said last week I wouldn’t hit the panic button even if they lost to both Seton Hall and Villanova on the road, and I’m sticking to that. While most prognosticators have already clamored on about how much of a shame it is to see Butler squander this away, I’m still feeling like they have a shot. I know they have lost 4 straight games, but the final 3 are all very winnable, as I said last week, and would push them to 9-12 in Q1/2 games. They also hold the nation’s toughest SOS, so are we going to actually reward teams who play difficult schedules or not? Because if we are then Butler deserves a bump for playing all but 8 of their games in Q1/2. I’m going to refrain from going on too much of a tangent just yet as the Bulldogs still have to win these final 3 games. It starts this week with St. John’s who is coming off of a massive win over Creighton. That would add to their Q2 win total and sets them up for an easy win @ DePaul, one they can’t afford to lose under any circumstance. Go 2-0 this week and Butler is still right there in the thick of things, and in my opinion should still be in over these other bubble teams who have played far weaker schedules and don’t have near the wins Butler does (@ Creighton, @ Marquette, vs Tx Tech/Nova). 

St. John’s: 16-12 (8-9) — Q1: (2-9) Q2: (6-2) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (20) Q1(A): (2-6)

It appears Rick Pitino may have finally gotten the attention of his guys as they enter the final stretch of the season in dire straits. They responded by going 2-0 this week and in the process picking up their best win of the season over Creighton. That gave them their 2nd Q1(A) win and with Utah sliding in the NET it keeps them at 2 Q1 wins overall. They do move to 8-11 in Q1/2 games overall and have a legitimate chance thanks to that win on Sunday. The improved play defensively has been huge and also Jordan Dingle has gotten more aggressive, putting up 18 and 22 in the 2 wins in 2 of his best performances of the season. They’ll see if the positive changes can hold as they head to Butler in a pivotal bubble matchup this Wednesday in their lone game of the week. That is one of the biggest bubble matchups of the week, as both teams need the W, and both would be in a critical position with a loss. The Johnnies finish with Georgetown and DePaul, so this is their last shot to add to that quality win total, and if they can’t capitalize will be looking toward the Big East tourney where they’ll want at least 1 more win to try and position themselves for Selection Sunday. 

Villanova: 15-12 (8-8) — Q1: (3-8) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (2-3) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (17) Q1(A): (2-4)

Villanova did in fact not shock the world @ UConn, but were able to beat Butler at home earlier in the week to split the week and stay alive as they chase that 4-2 finish we mapped out last week. If you look at their resumé you might think they’re in a great position until you see that 2-3 record in Q3 and that’s where things get complicated. The SOS is strong, the quality wins are very strong (UNC/Tx Tech neutral and @ Creighton) but those losses are so ugly. You could argue, well those were earlier in the season maybe we overlook them now, but then do we overlook the high quality wins over UNC/Tx Tech as well? There’s the conundrum, if the non-conference wins matter then so do the losses, and that is hurting Nova a ton right now. They have a cupcake game with Georgetown up next and then they enter a final 3 games that are ultra important. They have to find a way to go 2-1 in the final 3, which requires a win @ Providence/Seton Hall and a home win over Creighton to round things out. Anything short of that and all the pressure will be on the Big East tournament as I don’t see 17-14 being good enough entering the BET. It’s go time for Nova. 

---

–Pac-12–

Locks: 

   

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

Utah: 16-11 (7-9) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (18) Q1(A): (3-5)

Utah dropped another one in ugly fashion as they got blown out @ Colorado and fall to just 2-6 in their last 8 games. They have gone from a potential 6-7 seed to now in my Last 4 In, and if you ask others they could be out of the field entirely. It’s razor thin, but the strong trio of non-conference wins over BYU/St. Mary’s/Wake Forest still matter in my opinion and that top-20 SOS boosts them as well. They’re overall 8-10 in Q1/2, which if you’ve read all the way through this thing you know puts them right on par with many of the teams battling it out on the fringes right now. The downside for the Utes is they’re almost out of chances, as their next 3 games are all can’t-lose Q3/4 games that won’t help the resumé. It will help make the record look a little prettier and could boost the metrics if they can win big in a couple of those, but the real chance is in the final game of the season when they head to Oregon. Until then they just need to hold serve and hopefully build back some momentum at home vs some lesser competition. 

Colorado: 18-9 (9-7) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (7-4) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (75) Q1(A): (0-4)

Colorado did what they had to do, whooping Utah at home to add their 7th Q2 win and move themselves to 8-9 in Q1/2 overall. That puts them right in the mix, as I now have them playing in Dayton if the season were to end today, but don’t get it twisted, they’re one big win from another bubble team from being back on the wrong side of the bubble. Their best wins right now are over Utah and Wazzu at home outside of the road win @ Washington that is counting as their 1 Q1 victory. What we’ve seen from the committee though is a value put on Q2 wins as well, as teams like Auburn and Alabama were given higher seeds than I expected on the committee reveal last week with fewer Q1 wins than others below them. It’s an interesting thing to watch, as both of those teams have at least one elite Q1(A) win and Colorado doesn’t, plus the 4 Q2 losses is an ugly number. Either way, with 4 to play Colorado clearly can’t afford any bad losses, and they’ll have 2 chances to avoid that this week with home games vs Stanford and Cal that have to be wins for them to stay alive. 

---

–SEC–

Locks: 

        

On the Right Track:

Kentucky: 19-8 (9-5) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS (53) Q1(A): (4-2)

This Kentucky team is as up and down as they come, which isn’t surprising given the amount of FR they are relying on. After picking up a massive win over Auburn last week they couldn’t avoid the let down and lost @ LSU on a last second shot. They of course followed that up with another huge win at home vs Bama, a game in which they scored a ridiculous 117 points. There is no doubt that when these FR are locked in and playing hard they are as dynamic a group as you can find in the Country. The problem continues to be defense though, and while they are an electric factory offensively, that lack of defense is keeping them on the watch for one more week as you just never know who they’re going to lose to. What also hurts them is that 1-2 Q2 record which is pretty ugly, and frankly they’re just 6-7 overall in Q1/2 so it’s not that pretty of a resumé outside of that shining 4-2 record in Q1(A) games. This week they head to a tough and scrappy Mississippi St team who is full of grown ass men that are going to do their best to lock down this young Kentucky team. A win there would be ultra-impressive, but if they fall to 6-8 in Q1/2 and then for some reason stub their toe again at home vs Arkansas this thing could get dicey. So, we’re going to let this young team play things out a bit more down the stretch before we lock em up. 

Mississippi St: 19-8 (8-6) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (5-1) SOS (48) Q1(A): (2-4)

Mississippi St is rolling right now, winners of 5 straight games they have set themselves up nicely with just 4 games remaining. They were able to handle business this last week by beating in-state rival Ole Miss and then went on the road and didn’t miss a beat as they beat LSU by 20 just a few days after the Tigers knocked off Kentucky. It’s been an impressive run, but we’re going to find out over the next 2 weeks if it can hold up against tougher competition, as they now get 4 straight Q1/2 games to finish up the season. They first host Kentucky in a big time chance at home to pick up a Q1 win, and then go to Auburn, which makes the Kentucky game all the more important as dropping both would slide them to 3-7 in Q1, which wouldn’t be horrible but we can’t forget those 2 Q3/4 losses that weigh this resumé down a bit. They would all but guarantee their bid if they can handle Kentucky at home on Tuesday as a 4th Q1 win would be tough to imagine not being enough at this stage and with this bubble. 

Florida: 19-8 (9-5) — Q1: (4-7) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS (33) Q1(A): (2-4)

The Gators almost pulled off an incredible win this week as they went to Bama and took the Tide to OT and fell just short. They played as well as you could play but didn’t quite pull it off, but still were able to bounce back and handle Vandy with ease, leading wire-to-wire. They join many other SEC teams as offensive juggernauts but the lack of defense is something I see coming back to haunt them eventually, but until then their resumé has them in good position. They’re now 8-2 in their last 10 games, putting themselves in great position to handle their business and reach Selection Sunday with little to fear. It continues this week as they host a bad Missouri team in a can’t-lose game and then head to South Carolina. The Gamecocks are a good team but certainly beatable, so a 2-0 week would make the Gators a lock no doubt, but even a 1-1 split would bring them 1 step closer as avoiding a bad loss to Mizzou is important. 

Teetering:

Texas A&M: 15-12 (6-8) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-5) Q4: (5-0) SOS (11) Q1(A): (3-4)

Since the Aggies beat Tennessee they have lost 4 straight games, including 2 Q3 games, just horrific. The loss this week at home to Arkansas was the straw that broke the camel’s back as I can no longer justify A&M being in the field with that disgusting 2-5 Q3 record sitting there staring us in the face. Yes, they’re still over .500 in Q1/2 games, which should normally be plenty to get a team in the field, but you just can’t lose 5 games in Q3 and expect to get in. At this point, with 4 games to play, I’m thinking they’ll need to go 4-0 to have a chance, as that would push them to 12-7, which would be a pretty strong argument against those 5 Q3 losses. I’m not sure if that would be enough, as frankly I don’t think I’ve ever seen a resumé like this to know what the committee would do with it. I mean how often does a team go 2-5 in Q3 but 3-4 in Q1(A)? I’m laughing at the absurdity as I type this. I’m kind of rooting for them to finish 4-0 at this point just to see what would happen. It starts with a home game vs South Carolina and then they head to Georgia. Those on paper are very winnable, but with A&M up is down and down is up, so maybe they go 0-2 this week and shut the door on this thing entirely who knows. 

Ole Miss: 19-8 (6-8) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS (67) Q1(A): (0-5)

Ole Miss remains on the outside looking in as they dropped both games this past week @ Miss St and then at home to S. Carolina. They’re now just 4-8 in Q1/2 games, simply not good enough. It’s quite a fall as they started the 18-3 and are now just 1-5 in their previous 6 games as they’ve really struggled with the stiffer competition in the SEC. Their season is all but on the line this week as they host Alabama in their final Q1 game, one that if they can win would give them their first Q1(A) victory and give them a chance to go on a real run here down the stretch. They follow it up with a can’t lose road game vs Mizzou and are left with 2 Q2 chances the final week of the season. Ultimately it looks like the weak non-con schedule is going to haunt the Rebels if they can’t close the season out damn near perfect. It’s nut up or shut up time for Ole Miss on Wednesday night. 

---

–Mountain West–

Locks:

   

On the Right Track:

Colorado St: 18-8 (8-7) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS (31) Q1(A): (1-5)

The Rams went on the road twice this week and fell both times, losing to New Mexico and UNLV to keep things interesting. They really struggled to score the basketball, putting up less than 1 point per possession in both losses, shooting just 12-44 from 3 combined. Isaiah Stevens was good in both games, but watch the ancillary guys going forward as he’s going to have to get more help if they have any shot at making noise in March. While I don’t foresee Colorado St missing the dance, if they lose their last 3 that would make it a 5-game losing streak and add several more bad losses. I don’t think it’s going to happen but they can give me all the confidence I need by beating Nevada at home this week. Do that and I can go ahead and lock them up and worry about them when I’m filling out my bracket. 

Teetering:

Boise St: 17-8 (10-4) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS (47) Q1(A): (2-3)

The Broncos have been enjoying a reprieve on the schedule as they’ve been able to beat up on the bottom feeders in the Mountain West over the past few games. They’ve now won 3 straight games by 20+ points, which has allowed them to make the record look much nicer and improve their metrics a bit. However, it hasn’t done anything for the resumé aside from avoiding bad losses. They have one more cupcake with Air Force coming up this week before they finish the season with 3 straight Q1/2 games. That stretch starts with a home game vs New Mexico on Saturday as they look to add another Q1 win, if the Lobos hold on in the top-30. They should go 2-0 and if they do they’ll be on the brink of locking as they enter the final week of the regular season. 

Nevada: 21-6 (9-5) — Q1: (5-4) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (10-0) SOS (90) Q1(A): (1-2)

Similar to Boise St, the Wolfpack have been holding serve as they were able to beat Wyoming and San Jose St this past week to stay on track. They remain 6-5 in Q1/2 games, so above .500 continues to be enough to have them in the field as it stands today. Overall they are on quite a run right now, winning 6 of their last 7 games behind the strong play of their big 3 Blackshear, Lucas and Davidson. They have another big time opportunity this week as they head to Colorado St, albeit a tough one to convert as the Rams have been great at home. They host Fresno St in a cupcake after, so they should probably split the week and that will keep them on track. If they do somehow find a way to upset Colorado St on the road then we could push them all the way to lock territory, especially if they take care of Fresno for a 2-0 week.

New Mexico: 20-7 (9-6) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (9-1) SOS (89) Q1(A): (0-3)

The Lobos continue to defy the computers, as they continue to hover around the top-25 despite dropping another bad one, this time at home vs Air Force for a Q4 loss. Really bad timing for a loss like that, especially right after they knocked off Colorado St to pick up their 4th Q1 win. It’s mystifying how they continue to be so up and down, win a game on the road vs Nevada and then lose to Air Force? I’m not sure what to make of them, but I couldn’t call them a top-25 team by any stretch. Regardless of your overall view of them, the resume is just not great, sitting at just 5-5 in Q1/2 with 2 losses in Q3/4 now. That puts them right square in the bubble conversations with just 3 to play, 2 of which are on the road vs top competition in Conference. They have just one game this week, @ Boise St, and while that’s a tough one you really can’t predict what is going to happen with this group, so who know. Win and it’s a huge move, but a loss drops them to just 5-6 in Q1/2 with those 2 bad losses so they’d be in danger of being on the outside looking in. Massive matchup for the Lobos.

---

–American–

Locks: N/A

Teetering:

Florida Atlantic: 21-7 (11-4) — Q1: (1-1) Q2: (6-4) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (7-2) SOS (95) Q1(A): (1-1)

The Owls are truly dropping down the seed list now as we approach March, and at some point we have to start asking just how long they can hold on to that win over Arizona. They lost yet another game in the American and are now 3 games back of USF, something nobody would have predicted before the season. The loss to Memphis becomes their 6th loss outside of Q1, which is a ton especially compared to most of these bubble teams. It highlights their inability to defend, a problem they didn’t have last year as they’ve dropped from 34th to 101st this season, with almost entirely the same roster. It’s hard to explain, but regardless it has caused them to be in a vulnerable bubble position with just 3 games remaining. Overall they’re still 7-5 in Q1/2, but those 2 Q4 losses are hanging out there and cast some doubt on how they’ll be viewed by the committee, with only that 1 Q1 win over Arizona to offset. This week they’ll try to bounce back with just 1 home game vs Tulane, one they really can’t afford to lose at this point.

South Florida: 21-5 (14-1) — Q1: (0-0) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (10-2) SOS (205) Q1(A): (0-0)

USF is going to be one of the toughest resume’s to place, as they started the season rough and racked up 2 Q4 losses, but have bounced back to go 19-1 over their last 20 games. They have 0 Q1 wins to try and offset the bad losses, but they are 5-3 now in Q2 which is starting to push them up the bubble as they’ve now beaten FAU and Memphis in Conference. Ultimately I’m not sure if the schedule is going to be tough enough, but if they win out and are 24-5 I’m not sure how they could be ignored. The first step toward putting that pressure on the committee is this coming weekend, with a road game vs Charlotte that would push them to 6-3 in Q2. It’s going to be very interesting, but only if they can finish the season without another loss. Who would’ve thought a major bubble event would be happening in the Charlotte v S. Florida game to begin March?

Memphis: 20-8 (9-6) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (8-2) Q4: (6-1) SOS (98) Q1(A): (0-0)

Memphis has bounced back and did what they had to do this previous week, beating both Charlotte and FAU at home to keep themselves alive in the at-large fight. They have had quite the up-and-down run in the American Conference, but are sitting on wins vs Clemson and @ Texas A&M in the non-con that are keeping them afloat. They do have 3 losses in Q3/4 which may be too many to make up for with the schedule they have left, but the 6-5 Q1/2 record is strong enough to keep them in the conversation. This week they have 2 can’t-lose games @ ECU and then at home vs UAB. Both of those games just have to be W’s, but they’ve lost games like this previously so we can’t be too sure with this Memphis group. A 2-0 week keeps them alive, anything less and we can forget about Memphis unless they win the AAC tourney.

---

–WCC–

Locks:

 

 

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

Gonzaga: 21-6 (12-2) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (11-0) SOS (105) Q1(A): (1-3)

Listen, Gonzaga won another 2 games in the WCC and I know what the metrics are saying, but I’m not understanding what people are seeing putting the Zags in the field at this stage. They are now just 3-6 in Q1/2 games, with a pretty bad SOS at 105. They have just 1 Q1 win, which granted was @ Kentucky a very impressive win. Regardless, the resume is just not there for me to justify putting them in on the metrics and that Kentucky game alone, they need to do more. The good news for the Zags is they can prove to people like me just how good they are this week, as they get San Fran and Saint Mary’s away from home which amounts to 2 more Q1 opportunities. If they are able to push to 5-6 in Q1 that would absolutely get them in the at-large field. A 1-1 split improves their case but I’m not sure it would be enough at just 4-7. SOS and winning quality games is supposed to matter more than metrics alone, the Zags look like they’re going to push the committee on that principle.

---

–Others–

Locks: 

 

 

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

McNeese St: 20-3 (13-1) — Q1: (0-0) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (15-1) SOS (311) Q1(A): (0-0)

McNeese now is likely the top mid-major with a chance to get an at-large after Grand Canyon lost back-to-back Conference games this past week, after Indiana St did the same the week prior. Will Wade has done a tremendous job and if they can continue to finish strong they will have a compelling case to make at 24-3 and 3-2 in Q1/2. They have 2 games left on the road and 2 more at home prior to the Conference tourney, so as long as they keep winning we’ll keep them on the watch as their case would be very interesting if they fall in the championship.

James Madison: 25-3 (13-3) — Q1: (1-1) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (19-0) SOS (306) Q1(A): (1-0)

JMU continues to handle their business as they’ve now won 8 straight games and are holding onto that win @ Sparty from early in the season. They’re 2-2 in Q1/2 which isn’t super strong but with just 1 loss in Q3/4 they, like McNeese, would have a very interesting case if they can run the table. They have just 2 road games left in the regular season, so with 2 more wins they’d enter the Sun Belt tourney at 27-3 with a Q1(A) win. Who knows what that would look like at say 29-4 with a loss in the Sun Belt ship, but the committee would have a long and difficult discussion about it, that I’m certain of.

As we enter the latter part of February the bubble is beginning to narrow, as we have seen a few more teams lose their at-large hopes and have added several more locks. I would also like to get ahead of the fact that I locked S. Carolina only for them to get blown out by Auburn and then lose at home to LSU. Let’s not all panic at once, but there is a chance I was a bit over-zealous with that one. But hey, that’ll be a fun story to watch as I try to avoid the embarrassment of locking a team that misses the dance altogether. Anyhow, we have a myriad of stories developing, including a trio of teams making their bubble watch debut, as Minnesota, USF and Pitt have all gone on runs that have earned themselves some attention. These are teams that not only have given themselves chances at at-large bids but also have emerged as potential bid stealers, as we’ve seen teams get hot before and win conference tourney’s without a true chance at an at-large. The bid stealer is a bubble wrecker, and part of the mayhem of conference tourney season we all enjoy. Until then, we’ll continue to track all teams with at-large hopes, as we lay out exactly what their path to dancing may look like. 

I’m going to assign teams to 3 groups – Locks, On the Right Track and Teetering. Any team left out is not even on the radar, so maybe 4 groups for you sticklers out there. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.

“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.

“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 7-8 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.

“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, all the way to the bottom feeders who are holding on to a glimmer of at-large hope with much to do. 

For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), NET SOS and a final category being the Q1(A) record. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 68 teams on the first watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 2/19. Check out my current bracket projection here. 

Bubble Breakdown:

Total Bids: 68

1-bid conferences: 19

Locks: 19

Bids Left: 30

Bubble: 45

---

–ACC–

Locks: 

   

On the Right Track:

Clemson: 17-8 (7-7) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (5-2) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (28) Q1(A): (2-2) 

Right when it looked like Clemson may have turned a corner, winning three in a row including a win @ UNC, they drop a shocking one at home to NC State to really pump the brakes on this thing. I’m struggling to figure out who this team is, with the capability to beat teams like Alabama and UNC on the road but then they drop games at home to teams like Virginia/GA Tech, and of course this most recent one to the Wolfpack. They have almost an identical record across Q1-3, so maybe they’re just that classic play to the level of your competition team? Usually those teams struggle in March, so while the resumé doesn’t put them in any danger to miss the dance, they may not be part of it for long. This week they play @ GA Tech with a chance to avenge that bad Q3 loss and then get Florida St at home. If they want to feel secure down the stretch, they can’t lose one of these two games, as they would both add to the “bad loss” category. They just need to show up and handle business. 

Teetering:

Virginia: 20-6 (11-4) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (8-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (90) Q1(A): (1-2) 

Virginia had one of the more shocking losses of the week as they had their 8 game winning streak snapped by Pitt at home. That loss makes things way more interesting as evaluating this resumé becomes a little more tricky. They have just 2 Q1 wins, not many, and now are just 4-3 in Q2 games with a Q3 loss sitting out there. I don’t think anyone worth their salt would have them out of the tourney as it stands, however, they’ve left the door more open for another loss or 2 to cause them to slide toward the First 4 out/Next 4 out territory. With 5 to go they have 4 chances to add to the quality win total in Q1/2, but what that also means is they could go 0-4 and play themselves right out of this thing. That may sound dramatic, but 3 of the 4 are on the road vs VA Tech/BC/Duke and then they have UNC at home sandwiched in between. That’s a dangerous 4 game stretch, especially for a team that just lost to Pitt at home. I don’t like to doubt a proven coach like Tony Bennett, but a win on Monday night vs VA Tech would make me feel much better about the Hoos. They follow it up with Carolina at home, so finding a way to at least split the week would suppress the feeling of collapse I’m starting to have. 

N.C. State: 16-9 (8-6) — Q1: (1-6) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (68) Q1(A): (1-5)

I declared the game @ Clemson must-win if the Wolfpack wanted to stay on the radar, and by golly they somehow found a way. It took a furious comeback from down 12 with 10 to play, and a last second shot by DJ Horne but they kept themselves alive for another week. They have 6 games remaining now, with the final 4 all being Q1/2 chances, including a massive game on 3/4 as Duke comes to town. If they are able to go 5-1 down the stretch, only losing @ UNC, I think they would have a legitimate shot entering the ACC tourney. That would add a 3-1 boost to what is now just a 4-9 Q1/2 record and add a likely 2nd Q1(A) win over Duke. It’s certainly not a guarantee, but what is a guarantee is if they lose either game this week it’s curtains. They first get Syracuse at home and then BC, two must-win games there’s just no way around it. 

Wake Forest: 16-9 (8-6) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (3-4) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (69) Q1(A): (0-3)

After losing to both Virginia and Duke on the road this past week the Demon Deacons enter this week in must-win mode if they want to stay alive. It was a week where we expected to see 2 losses, as those are two very difficult games to win. What it means going forward though is they have to handle their business on their home court, as they welcome Pitt to Winston-Salem and then Duke comes in for the rematch. If they can add another Q1 and Q2 win then they put themselves right back in the thick of things with a 6-9 Q1/2 record. It still likely wouldn’t be good enough, but it puts them back in the Next 4 Out group probably and sets them up for 2 more quality win chances @ VA Tech and vs Clemson down the stretch. They have the opportunities, it’s now time to start converting on those chances or else we’re going to have to say night night to Wake’s at-large hopes. It’s now nut up or shut up time for this group, we’ll see if they can pull it off. 

Pitt: 17-8 (8-6) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (5-2) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (89) Q1(A): (2-1)

I considered adding Pitt to the watch a week ago, but ultimately thought, there’s no way they go to a white hot Virginia and pull out a win…they sure proved me wrong, and they now have their rightful place on the bubble watch. They backed up the the big win over the Hoos by beating up on L’ville at home and now have won 7 of their last 8 games in the ACC. Blake Hinson has been on fire lately, scoring 27 and 41 in the two wins this past week, hitting 14 3’s in the two games combined. With a guy who can shoulder the load like that they shouldn’t be doubted going forward if they can continue to defend the way they have during this run. The big issue for them is they are just 4-6 in Q1/2 and have 2 Q3 losses, not a pretty resumé by any means. What they do have is 2 more chances this week to add to that quality win total, with a game @ Wake (Q1) and then at home vs VA Tech (Q2). If they can sweep the week they will be right there in the mix of the Last 4 in group, but even a split still keeps them alive. It will put more pressure on them down the stretch though, so starting the week with a win @ Wake would make this thing feel far more real. 

Miami (FL): 15-11 (6-9) — Q1: (2-6) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (6-1) SOS: (72) Q1(A): (0-5) 

Well, the Hurricanes are down to their last gasp, it’s hail mary time and with Duke coming to Coral Gables they have one last shot to try and keep themselves in this thing. They’ve now lost 4 in a row after losing to Clemson and BC on the road this week and overall are just 4-9 over the last 13. We’re close to the end of a crash and burn, but the truth is they have a path, however bleak it may be. As I said, it starts with beating Duke and getting a 3rd Q1 W, and then backing that up by beating GA Tech, both at home. That’s very realistic and could potentially swing the momentum for a team that is clearly spiraling. They finish with 2 more chances, @ UNC/Florida St. If they could find a way to pick one of them off that would be a 4-1 finish that added 2 quality wins to improve them to 8-10 in Q1/2. It might not be enough still, but the ACC tourney is out there with chances to pick up more quality wins on a neutral floor. It’s as dire as it gets right now but they have one final swing to try and keep themselves alive. Monday night. Season is on the line. 

---

–Big Ten–

Locks:

   

On the Right Track:

Wisconsin: 17-9 (9-6) — Q1: (6-6) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (4) Q1(A): (2-3) 

Wisconsin was able to stop the bleeding this week as they beat Ohio St at home, but their concerning play came right back in a loss @ Iowa. We continue to witness the fall of the Badgers, as they are now just 1-5 over their past 6 games and doing their best to undo what was a fantastic 16-4 start to the season. The good news for them is if you take away all of that context and you look at their resumé as a whole, they have a top-5 SOS and 11 Q1/2 wins. They played one of the toughest non-Con schedules in the country and have several big time wins to show for it over Marquette and Virginia, with a sweep over Michigan St to boot. From a trust and momentum standpoint it looks very bleak for Wisconsin, but again they did so much work to start the season they honestly are still sitting in a decent spot, even if they’ve fallen from a 2 seed to a 5 or 6 seed. They have just 1 game this week, at home vs Maryland, a game that they absolutely should win but given the recent history I certainly don’t have a ton of confidence they will be able to. 

Northwestern: 18-8 (9-6) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-1) SOS: (33) Q1(A): (2-3)

The Wildcats were able to bounce back this week after losing a tough one @ Rutgers early in the week by getting the road monkey off their back and winning @ Indiana. That was a very impressive win given they are now without their 2nd leading scorer Ty Berry for the season, so I was curious how they’d fair down the stretch. They snapped their 5 game losing streak on the road in the Big Ten and improved to 9-7 in Q1/2 with just 5 to play, 3 of which are at home. I’m feeling pretty confident again in Northwestern resumé wise, they just need to keep handling business and we’ll be able to lock them up here shortly. So long as nothing crazy happens when they host Michigan this week that should be enough for me to lock as I don’t see their 9 Q1/2 wins getting passed by unless they go on a big losing streak to finish. They can quiet all of that by getting a dub at home on Thursday night.

Michigan St:  17-9 (9-6) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (15) Q1(A): (2-4) 

Tom Izzo once again appears to have his team hitting their stride as we get deep into February, as Sparty was able to pick up a pair of Conference road wins this week and are 8-2 in their last 10. It’s a story as old as time, as Izzo always seems to get his teams humming this time of year, and they’re now in a firm position in the field after picking up 2 more Q2 wins this past week. The play of Malik Hall continues to be the key, as I said a week ago, and he’s continued to be aggressive for them offensively, scoring 29 and 18 this week, which has taken pressure off of Walker and Hoggard. So long as he stays aggressive they should continue to fair much better, and have a chance to gain further momentum this week with 2 home games vs Iowa and Ohio St. 2 more wins and they’ll get themselves above .500 in Q1/2 and really be feeling comfortable as we enter March.  

Teetering: 

Nebraska: 18-8 (8-7) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (62) Q1(A): (2-2)

Nebraska was able to hold serve this week as they played just one game at home vs Penn St. They won with ease and now set themselves up for a stretch run that gives them the opportunity to stack some wins as long as they can figure out a way to win on the road. They are currently 0-7 in Big Ten road games, and haven’t won a game away from home since Dec 17th when they beat K-State. That’s a bad look, but they haven’t played some of the bottom teams on the road like they will in the 3 they have remaining. It starts with a trip to Bloomington to play IU, a team that is barely a top-100 team but has shown some fight at home at times. This is a game that they need to find a way to win, as it’s a Q2 game and would quiet the whispers about their inability to win away from home. That’s a criteria the committee does consider, and if they continue to drop road games their going to be squarely in that Last 4 In/First 4 Out discussion. They also host a tough Minnesota team after the trip to IU so it’s a big week for them to potentially get to 5-3 in Q2 and create some separation between them and the cut line, or they could find themselves on the outside looking in.

Rutgers: 14-11 (6-8) — Q1: (3-8) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (29) Q1(A): (0-5)

The Scarlet Knights have kept themselves in this thing with another quality win this week over Northwestern and remain very much alive despite the loss that followed @ Minnesota. By no means are they in the field as it stands, but they are playing like a tournament quality team since the return of Jeremiah Williams. They have a tough stretch of games to finish out the season though, with their only meaningful chances being road Q1 games against Purdue/Wisconsin/Nebraska. Finishing 3-3 would mean dropping to 7-13 in Q1/2 games with just a 17-14 record, not sure that’s going to get it done, so the path is going to have to include one of those road games by my estimation, or they’ll need to do some damage in the Big 10 tourney. It starts this week with a trip to Purdue, where they’ve won in the past, but the almost more important game follows that as they host Maryland. Beating the Terps for a 1-1 split would move them to 7-11 in Q1/2 and keep them alive, but if they lose both the dream will be dead. Every game is crucial, but none more than Sunday afternoon for this Rutgers program. 

Minnesota: 16-9 (7-7) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (87) Q1(A): (0-2)

Let’s welcome Minnesota to the bubble watch as they have gone on a bit of a run here of late and have grabbed my attention. It started with wins at home over Northwestern and Michigan St which added 2 Q1/2 wins and gave them their first in Q1. In this year’s bubble that gives you life, especially in the Big Ten where there are opportunities to add more down the stretch, and at 6-8 overall in Q1/2 they’re very much alive. Now, for the bad news, they can’t afford to just split their home and away games, as that would see them only going 1-3 in Q1/2 the rest of the way, not going to be good enough at just 1-8 in Q1. They are going to have to find a way to beat one of Nebraska/Illinois/Northwestern on the road as we close out the season. Of course, they’ll also need to win all their home games, and that includes another Q2 opportunity with Ohio St coming to the Barn. So, I’m seeing the path as at least a 4-2 finish, which would improve their Q3 record to 3-1, Q2 to 6-3 and then they’ll sit 2-7 in Q1. At 8-10 in Q1/2 it’s no sure thing, and likely still might not be enough, but it at least gives them a fighting chance entering the Big Ten tourney where they can pick up some more quality wins. It’s going to take a monumental effort, but the path is there for the Gophers. 

---

–Big 12–

Locks: 

      

On the Right Track: 

Teetering:

BYU: 18-7 (6-6) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (63) Q1(A): (1-4)

BYU lost another head scratcher this week, on the road to Oklahoma St, which followed a win over UCF where they only won by 2 at home. They have fallen off a cliff defensively, as they were once a top-15 ranked team on that end and they’re now sub-50, evidenced by allowing the Cowboys to put up 93 in this most recent loss. I’m not really sure what to attribute the lack of defense to, especially with UCF and Oklahoma St being two of the worst offensive teams in the Big 12. I was expecting this group to continue to improve now that they’re healthy again, but they are now going in the opposite direction and slowly sliding down the seed line as other teams rack up quality wins. They have a massive chance this week with Baylor coming to Provo, but with the way they’ve been defending they may allow the Bears to score 100. They follow that one up with a trip to K-State, who will be desperate for a big win, so this could be another tough week for BYU if they can’t turn around their defensive effort. 

Texas Tech: 18-7 (7-5) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (36) Q1(A): (3-4)

The Red Raiders took advantage of a big opportunity this past week, blowing out Kansas at home to rack up a 4th Q1 win. They lost later in the week @ Iowa St, nothing to be ashamed of, but that did drop them to 5-7 in Q1/2 games. They were without Warren Washington in the frontcourt, and they certainly missed him as they gave up 11 offensive boards and gave up 82 points. He should be back soon, and they’re going to need him as this week brings 2 very winnable games that could allow them to create some separation from the true cut line. They first host TCU and then head to UCF, which by Big 12 standards are games that you can certainly win, especially the first one at home. This is a stretch of 5 straight games where I could see them winning each, as they get both Oklahoma St and WVU on the road plus Texas at home. They finish the season @ Baylor but a couple more wins in a row and we will feel much more confident in this resumé. 

Oklahoma: 18-8 (6-7) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (47) Q1(A): (3-4)

Last week we laid out the gauntlet that awaited Oklahoma over the final 7 games, and as we feared it did not get off to a good start as the Sooners dropped games @ Baylor and then at home vs Kansas. Those are both Q1 losses so not bad by any means, but what it means is they have just 2 home games remaining in the final 5 and that 2-5 finish we feared is well on its way to coming to fruition. This team is just struggling so badly on the offensive end, down to now 73rd in offensive efficiency, and if they can’t find some consistent shooting are in serious trouble and may find themselves in the teetering category. They have just one game until we meet again, @ Oklahoma St, a game they absolutely need to win as the final 4 games are all going to be tough. This is one of those potential collapses that I just can’t look away from. 

TCU: 18-7 (7-5) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (46) Q1(A): (2-4)

It was a massive bubble game in the Big 12 and thanks to a game winning 3 by Jameer Nelson Jr, TCU was able to pull off a win @ K-State. That one followed a beat down of WVU at home so they’re now 5-2 over their last 7 games in the Big 12. This group has developed into quite the offensive force, and flexed that muscle in the 2nd half of the K-State game, scoring 51 points, including a 20-2 run that flipped the game on its head and propelled them to a massive road win. They are looking like more of a safe bet at this stage, but they’re still just 6-7 in Q1/2 games. They’re in right now, don’t get it twisted, but in the Big 12 it’s so hard to feel good when every night is a chance to lose and those can pile up on you fast. Based on how they’ve been playing I would expect them to hold serve and split this week, as they have a tough one up next @ Texas Tech but then return home to play Cincy in a game they absolutely have to win. 

Texas: 16-9 (5-7) — Q1: (4-7) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (17) Q1(A): (4-6)

The Longhorns had just one game since we last met and as expected they lost @ Houston. What maybe wasn’t expected was just how badly they lost, as they were pretty well demolished by the Cougars, losing by 21 and never leading in the game. Texas has played one of the tougher schedules in America, with a whopping 10 games in Q1(A). That schedule is going to help keep them in the field as it stands right now, in spite of just a 5-8 record in Q1/2. The 4 Q1(A) wins are the most on the watch from a team that isn’t locked and that crooked number on the resumé is absolutely massive. They have another chance this week to pick up a decent win with K-State coming in, but they then have to go to Allen Fieldhouse to play Kansas. I would imagine it’s another split of a week, and if they do handle K-State with ease it will probably be just a Q3 win. That means a loss @ Kansas drops them to 5-9 in Q1/2. How long can they hold on to those 4 Q1(A) wins? They may push it all the way to Selection Sunday, as they have 3 Q1 games on the road left and that’s it…lose all 3 but win your home games and we’ll have Texas at just 6-12 in Q1/2. Historically, that won’t be enough, but every year is a different bubble. 

Cincinnati: 16-9 (5-7) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (35) Q1(A): (2-5)

We said the Bearcats needed to find a way to at least split their games this past week and that’s exactly what they did, even if it was in a surprising manor. They lost at home to Iowa St in a game they trailed the majority of, but were able to bounce back on the road to beat UCF. That gave them another Q1 win which they desperately needed, and as of now they are right there on the cut line. Their ability to win away from home might be a big boost to their resumé, as they have 3 massive road wins now over BYU/Texas Tech/UCF, plus the home win over TCU. That’s a nice group of wins, and they’re just about to the point where they’ve made up for their pathetically bad non-conference schedule. This week offers another road test but they first have to handle their business at home against Oklahoma St, who has gone 3-3 in their last 6 so you can’t look past this one. After what is hopefully a W they will travel to TCU in the rematch, one that you certainly wouldn’t expect them to win but it would go a long way toward making them feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. 

Kansas St: 15-10 (5-7) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (4-5) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (61) Q1(A): (1-3)

Kansas St is now on life support, as they dropped yet another game this week, this time at home vs TCU. That’s one they absolutely had to have and now they are as far down the bubble as they have been all season. They’re now just 1-6 over the last 7 so I have not much faith in this year’s wildcats to be able to do what is required of them at this stage. They ultimately need to finish no worse than 4-2 down the stretch to have a chance. That allows them to lose @ Texas/Kansas and the other 4 have to be wins, including home games vs BYU/WVU/Iowa St, plus a win @ Cincy. If they can add those 3 Q1 wins then they’ll have a legitimate shot to get an at-large berth as we enter Conference tournament season. Of course they could finish better than that, but give the previously mentioned 1-6 record in the last 7 excuse me for not predicting a finish that strong. It starts this week with the trip to Texas and then the biggest game yet with BYU coming in. Pick up another Q1 win and that glimmer of hope is still there, however faded it may be. 

---

–Big East–

Locks:

      

On the Right Track:

Teetering:

Butler: 15-10 (7-8) — Q1: (4-9) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (7) Q1(A): (2-5)

Well, a team that was just a week ago one of the hotter teams in America has cooled off quite a bit after suffering 2 losses at home to Marquette and Creighton. Those are two big time missed opportunities as they fall to 7-10 in Q1/2 and remain squarely in the bubble mix. They have a lot going for them, including a top-10 SOS and those massive road wins over the aforementioned Creighton and Marquette. That keeps them in the field for now, but as we look ahead at what is coming down the pipe for these Bulldogs I start to get nervous. They now have back-to-back road games against Nova and Seton Hall, two fellow bubble teams desperate for wins. Lose both of those and you’re down to just 4-11 in Q1 with no more chances until the Big East tourney. The final 3 do include 2 home Q2 chances, so if they can win the final 3 they could finish 9-12 in Q1/2 which should be enough to be okay. So, all of that is to say we won’t hit the panic button if they do drop what will be a 3rd and 4th straight game this week, as those final 3 are all winnable and should keep them alive. They haven’t made it easy on themselves, but it’s a fairly clear path, because they still could pull off a surprise road win and make it much easier. 

Providence: 17-9 (8-7) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (10-0) SOS: (57) Q1(A): (2-4)

I was asking for a 2-0 week out of Providence and they delivered, protecting their home-court and adding another quality win beating St. John’s. That brings them to 7-9 in Q1/2 which for me is good enough to be in the field, but based on consensus that remains a split decision it appears. Lunardi for example, has them behind teams like Gonzaga, Ole Miss and Nevada, who certainly don’t have the quality of wins the Friars do, but evidently those 3 losses outside of Q1 and the bad non-con SOS is still weighing them down in other people’s eyes. Either way you slice it it’s still too close for comfort, so they’re going to have to continue to add quality wins down the stretch. They have a golden opportunity to do just that this week as they head to Xavier, which represents yet another Q1 chance. They’ve proven they can win on the road before (Seton Hall) and now is a great time to back that up and rack up a 5th Q1 win, something that would leave the nay sayers no choice but to have them in the field. Last week I was looking for a 5-2 finish to get them in, they’re 2 wins into that now and frankly one of the losses I counted was this week. Big game but there remains several chances for these Friars to get in, so I won’t be too worried if they do lose. 

Seton Hall: 17-9 (10-5) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (2-2) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (43) Q1(A): (2-4)

Seton Hall had maybe the best week of any bubble team out there as they defended home court with the win over Xavier to pick up a Q2 win and then went on the road and beat St. John’s for their 5th Q1 win. For me, that’s enough to have them in the field at 7-7 in Q1/2, especially with that massive win over UConn, another over Marquette and now 5 road wins in the Big East, 3 of which in Q1. That’s enough for me to make up for those 2 Q3 losses, but the season doesn’t end today, and they have even more chances down the stretch to continue to bolster this resumé. It starts this week with a home tilt vs Butler, another Q2 chance which could finally flip that Q2 record above .500 and help their case even more as they’d also move above .500 overall in Q1/2. In my opinion, since Big East play began, the Pirates have played like a tournament quality team, they’re just having to making up for two bad non-con losses. If they can just take care of business at home the rest of the way that’s a 3-2 finish that should be good enough to have them in as we enter conference tourney season. 

St. John’s: 14-12 (6-9) — Q1: (2-9) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (10) Q1(A): (1-6)

It’s getting very dire now for St. John’s as not only did they drop a tough one @ Providence but they turned around and lost at home vs Seton Hall. To make matters worse, they blew a lead as high as 19 in the Seton Hall game, and led by 7 in the 2nd half agains the Friars, they just couldn’t close either game. That makes them just 2-8 over their last 10 and has their at-large chances on life support as we enter the homestretch. The good news is they have opportunities to turn this thing around still, and after what should be a road win over Georgetown this week their season will be on the line as they host Creighton. If they can pick up a 3rd Q1 win by beating Creighton they will be right back in the thick of things at 16-12 and 8-11 in Q1/2. They will likely still need more but it keeps them alive with another Q1 shot around the corner @ Butler, plus the Big East tourney. They need to finish 4-1 minimum down the stretch, but there still remains a path, even if morale is at an all-time low. 

Villanova: 14-11 (7-7) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (2-3) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (28) Q1(A): (2-3)

Villanova is still pretty far out of it but was able to avoid the final blow by beating Georgetown on Friday night, setting themselves up for a potential run with 6 to play. 5 of the final 6 are Q1/2 chances, so a 4-2 finish to the season could make this resumé very interesting. That finish would give them an additional Q2 win and then 2 more Q1 wins, with the final game vs Creighton being yet another statement win. It affords them a loss @ UConn, duh, and then they have to find a way to split road games vs Seton Hall and Providence. If they don’t do that then I just don’t see a way they get in a 17-14 with those 3 Q3 losses. They have to get to double digit Q1/2 wins to try and outweigh those bad losses from earlier in the season. They will obviously have some chances in the Big East tourney but as far as I can tell a 4-2 finish minimum is what it will take, short of a deep run in the BET. It starts with a home win over Butler this week, and then who knows maybe they can shock the world and win @ UConn? 

---

–Pac-12–

Locks: 

On the Right Track:

Washington St: 20-6 (11-4) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS (82) Q1(A): (1-0)

I am going to continue to bang on the Wazzu drum for another week, as they continue this hot streak that has seen them go 10-1 over their last 11 games in the Pac-12. They handled both Cal and Stanford with ease at home this week, and continue to play through RS FR Myles Rice and transfer big man Isaac Jones offensively. The truth is we’re close to locking this team up, but they have two difficult trips to Arizona this week that are keeping me a bit cautious, as they travel to Arizona first and then to the Sun Devils after. I don’t expect them to go to Arizona and win by any means, especially with the Wildcats looking for revenge, but what they have to avoid is a loss to Arizona St. If they can pick up that road win they’ll finish with 3 straight home games so I’ll feel very comfortable locking them up if they can just split the week upcoming. This is a fantastic story, and if you’re a first time reader you can see my thoughts in prior editions, but just know once March hits you’ll probably be hearing more about this Wildcats program, and should’ve already if they weren’t on the West Coast. 

Teetering:

Utah: 16-10 (7-8) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (5-4) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (23) Q1(A): (2-4)

Utah was able to stave off complete disaster as they won on a last second tip in @ UCLA to keep themselves alive. That win followed a loss @ USC that continued their slide, but they stopped the bleeding on Sunday night and are barely clinging to an at-large spot by my estimation. Ultimately, they’re just 2-5 in their last 7 games and have now racked up 5 losses outside of Q1, not good. They also haven’t added a Q1 win since Dec 9th with their win over BYU at home. They have just two chances left to do so, one of which comes in their lone game this week as they travel to Colorado. They have just 1 road win in Pac-12 play though, so I’m not all that confident they are going to go into Colorado and win with the way they’ve been playing. The last game of the season @ Oregon is the only other chance they have to add quality wins until the Pac-12 tourney, so if they only finish the season 3-2 that will leave them just 8-11 in Q1/2 and 19-12. What a fall from grace, but they do have the chance to turn the whole ship around next Saturday in Boulder. 

Oregon:  17-8 (9-5) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (75) Q1(A): (1-3)

Oregon avoided disaster by winning @ Oregon St and have taken one step towards that 6-1 finish we discussed last week. Like we’ve been saying, it’s going to take a Herculean effort to push them onto the right side of the bubble, but we’re going to find out quickly if they have what it takes as they have 2 road games this week that could push them to 5-3 in Q2. They first travel to Stanford and then Cal in games they absolutely just have to win. A 2-0 week would push them to 7-7 in Q1/2 which would have them right there in that first group of 8 teams out of the field. They have a long way to go but there still remains a path, as that 6-1 finish would leave them 9-8 in Q1/2 which would give them a fighting chance entering conference tourney season. It could all come to a screeching halt though if they can’t win Thursday night @ Stanford. 

Colorado: 17-9 (8-7) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (6-4) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (73) Q1(A): (0-4)

The Buffs are now in must-win mode as they dropped another Q2 game @ UCLA this past week. They were able to bounce back and beat USC in 2 OT to stay alive, but with just 5 to play they need every win down the stretch. They only have one more regular season Q1 chance left with a trip to Eugene on 3/7, but until then they have just 1 Q2 chance, this week vs Utah. Obviously, that’s a must-win game, but even that one won’t be enough in my opinion to get them on the right side of things entering the final 4 games. We’re likely going to be riding with Colorado and Oregon all the way through the Pac-12 tourney, as each win and loss could be the difference maker for their fate on Selection Sunday. Either way, they absolutely have to beat Utah on Saturday, or all of this gets thrown out and we can just forget about Colorado. 

---

–SEC–

Locks: 

        

On the Right Track:

Kentucky: 18-7 (8-4) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS (66) Q1(A): (2-3)

Have the 2024 Kentucky Wildcats learned how to play defense? The young Wildcats may have unlocked the key to their post-season success, as they held 2 very good offensive teams in Ole Miss and Auburn to far below 1 point per possession, allowing just 63 and 59 points in the two wins this week. The win @ Auburn was a season defining win, being the first team to go to the jungle and win this season, this young team proved they are not only a tournament quality team but may have found a recipe defensively that can make them a dangerous team in March. We know they can score, evidence by their top-10 offensive efficiency ranking, but if they can continue to defend the way they did this past week the entire country should be scared, as their potential would be through the roof. They have a tough week ahead after that massive win @ Auburn, as they stay on the road to play LSU and then host Alabama, the most difficult team in the Nation to defend. The game @ LSU is the more interesting one to me. How does this young team bounce back after that huge win? Is the defensive effort something that’s going to stick or will their focus slip? I want to believe, but they have to avoid the let down and handle LSU and then give Bama their best shot. Resumé wise they also could really use that Q2 win as well, as they have just 5 Q1/2 wins thus far. It’s a massive week as winning both would lock them up, but there’s a world they go 0-2 and are in a little trouble when we meet next week. 

Teetering:

Mississippi St: 17-8 (6-6) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (5-1) SOS (27) Q1(A): (2-4)

The Bulldogs were able to cruise through this recent easy stretch on the schedule, picking up 3 straight wins to build some momentum as they enter a 6 game stretch where every game is either Q1 or 2. They have done it without starting forward DJ Jeffries as well, and he returned but played just a couple of minutes in their recent win over Arkansas, so hopefully he’ll be back to full strength here soon as they’re going to need him. They kick off this stretch with a rematch at home vs Ole Miss and then head to LSU. Honestly, these are 2 Q2 games that it feels like they really need, especially the one at home vs Ole Miss. If they split their road/away games the rest of the way that would leave them 9-9 in Q1/2 which should be good enough. However, winning @ LSU is not only realistic but would open the door for a 4-2 finish that would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable at 10-8 entering the SEC tourney. Much can happen with a 6 game stretch like this, but they would ease much of the concern if they could go 2-0 this week. First, they’ll look for revenge against rival Ole Miss.

Florida: 18-7 (8-4) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (32) Q1(A): (2-3)

Florida is white hot right now, going 7-1 in their last 8 games and are now just a couple more wins away from getting locked up. They have the cleanest resumé of any team on the watch, with 0 losses outside of Q1, they just are held back by the 6-7 Q1/2 record. They beat LSU at home and Georgia in Athens this past week, and now have their biggest test of the season as they head to Bama. That one should be an absolute shootout, as neither team plays any defense and both teams love to shoot the 3 (take the over). It’s not one you’d expect them to win, but dropping to 6-8 in Q1/2 is going to keep them in the bubble mix, and while I don’t think it drops them too dangerously close to the cut line, it makes the next few games very important as they have Q3/4 games at home that they can’t afford to drop, as the 0 losses outside of Q1 is their biggest resumé strength, alongside the wins over Auburn and Kentucky. Give Bama your best shot but make sure you come home and handle Vandy. A 1-1 split like that will be just fine. 

Texas A&M: 15-10 (6-6) — Q1: (6-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (2-4) Q4: (5-0) SOS (11) Q1(A): (3-3)

I am going to be upfront here, I have no idea what to do with this A&M resumé at the moment, it’s one of the most difficult resumé’s I can remember. They somehow have a better record in Q1(A) games than they do in Q3 games. I mean come on. Last week I said this team looked to be getting hot at the right time, they immediately lost to Vandy to pick that 4th Q3 loss up and throw a wrench in that theory. They followed up the horrific loss by getting blown out by Bama, but they still are a sparkly 8-6 in Q1/2. Is that enough to make up for that pathetic Q3 record? I’m honestly not sure, but I have them in as I would prefer a team who’s proven to be able to win big time games in the field over teams who can’t seem to muster up a Q1 win. Sure they’ve lost some tough ones, but a team that could get upset is all the more fun in the dance, and they should be rewarded for playing a very tough schedule and piling up quality wins along the way. That’s my 2 cents, but whatever the case may be they still have 6 games remaining to try and make their case look even better, and it would help to go ahead and take care of Arkansas at home to prove you can beat the teams you’re supposed to. They then head to Tennessee in what will likely be a loss, but you never know with this team.

Ole Miss: 19-6 (6-6) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (76) Q1(A): (0-4)

The Rebels split the week, losing @ Kentucky but bouncing back to beat Mizzou at home in what was a must-win. As it stands right now I have this team on the outside looking in, with just 5 Q1/2 wins and 0 in the Q1(A) category. They are right there on the cusp though, and I would understand having them in, but the margins are thin this time of year and if Ole Miss wants to feel comfortable they need to just find a way to add some quality wins to this resumé. They have 2 chances to do just that as they head to Mississippi St (Q1) and then host South Carolina (Q2) later in the week. The issue for the Rebels is they play absolutely no defense, which is surprising for a Beard led team, but at this point it’s keeping them from being able to beat the higher quality teams in the SEC, which ultimately will keep them from dancing if they can’t figure it out. Losing to Miss St and then beating the Gamecocks will keep them right in the hunt, adding a 3rd Q2 win. That would set them up with the biggest chance of the season with Bama coming to town next week, in what amounts to their final home Q1 chance. The path is obviously still there, but I’m starting to doubt this talented team has it in them to pick up that elusive Q1(A) win. 

---

–Mountain West–

Locks:

On the Right Track:

Colorado St: 18-6 (8-5) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS (51) Q1(A): (1-3)

Colorado St is sitting pretty comfy right now thanks to their 8-5 record in Q1/2 which they added to with their most recent blowout of Utah St. They dropped a tough one earlier in the week @ San Diego St, a game in which they led at halftime but mustered up just 11 points in the 2nd half. It was an alarming 2nd half collapse but ultimately a road loss to a top-20 team isn’t going to hurt you, and it was nice to see them bounce back and beat Utah St by 20. They continue this stretch of continuous Q1/2 games this week with a trip to New Mexico and then UNLV. The game @ New Mexico is one that I would expect they drop, but UNLV is the one I’ll be watching, as avoiding that Q2 loss will be huge and would be enough for me to lock up the Rams with just 3 to play. If they go 0-2 though they still won’t be in trouble but it makes the home tilt with Nevada big time as they would need to bounce back and avoid a 3 game skid. Who knows, maybe they just go 2-0 and make things real simple? When is it ever simple though. 

Utah St: 19-5 (9-4) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS (79) Q1(A): (0-3)

Well, I’m neither concerned about Utah St nor willing to lock them up after last week, as they avoided disaster @ Wyoming but got blown out by Colorado St in the follow up. They have a great record and honestly are pretty safely in right now, but with just 2 remaining quality chances and some land mines in between them I hope you understand my hesitation with a team that has just 2 Q2 wins. They have a massive opportunity to add to that total though this Tuesday night as they host San Diego St in their lone game until we meet again. If they are able to pick up that massive win we will be able to lock them up, as that would add a 3rd Q1 win and bring them to 8-5 in Q1/2 games with just 4 to go. I have a little less confidence in them to get it done than I did a few weeks ago when they looked like the best team in the Mountain West, as they’re just 2-3 in their last 5. Tuesday night 9 pm, for sole possessions of 1st place in the MW, you know what I’ll be watching. 

Teetering:

Boise St: 15-8 (8-4) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (25) Q1(A): (2-3)

Boise St had a quiet week with just one game which was a win over Fresno St. They avoided disaster and it was a nice bounce back after losing a couple in a row last week on the road. They will continue with this stretch of games against lesser competition this week as they host San Jose St and then head to Wyoming. That 2nd one is a tricky one, as Wyoming, while not good, has played teams tough at home. They’ll need to avoid tripping up there and if they can will set themselves up for a stretch run that offers up 3 more Q1/2 games to finish out the season. They’re in the field as it stands, but a bad loss could really poke a hole in this resumé so they just have to stay focused and handle their business this week. 

Nevada: 19-6 (7-5) — Q1: (5-4) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS (81) Q1(A): (1-2)

Nevada let one slip through their fingertips last week as they blew a late lead at home vs New Mexico, but showed good resolve as they went to UNLV and picked up a Q2 win. It’s all about avoiding bad losses down the stretch for Nevada, as they have just 2 quality chances left and they’re both on the road, tough one’s to pick up. They have 4 very winnable games against the bottom feeders of the Conference that they just can’t afford to lose. It starts this week at home with Wyoming and then they have a trip to San Jose St. Neither of those wins is going to boost the resumé, but a loss could absolutely send them to the other side of the bubble. I have them in the last 4 byes group, and a 2-0 week is what’s required to keep them in that position. Can’t fall asleep at the wheel Nevada, just handle your business. 

New Mexico: 19-6 (8-5) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS (116) Q1(A): (0-3)

New Mexico was able to bounce back after the bad loss at home to UNLV by beating Nevada on the road with a furious rally at the wire. It was a nice response, and added the 3rd Q1 win to the resumé, but it quickly was followed by a loss to San Diego St and they are now just 2-3 over their last 5 games. They have a bit of a reprieve this week as they return home for 2 games, the first of which is a massive opportunity as they welcome in Colorado St. Winning that game would mean pulling to 5-5 in Q1/2 games. Right now I have them in the Last 4 in, but I would not argue much with anyone who had them in the First 4 out. The margins are that thin. That makes the matchup with the Rams all the more important, as it’s the final home Q1 chance on the schedule. If they fail to pick that one up and fall to 4-6 in Q1/2 games I would probably drop them out, and they’d have to find a way to beat either Boise St or Utah St on the road to improve up on that record before the MW tourney. Needless to say, the game Wednesday is hugely important.  

---

–American–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Florida Atlantic: 20-6 (10-3) — Q1: (2-1) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (7-1) SOS (105) Q1(A): (1-1)

FAU suffered another defeat in the American Conference and are now 2 games back of S. Florida in the regular season standings. They are clinging on to 3 non-conference wins, the biggest being the win over Arizona, but the Texas A&M/Butler wins are strong as well. Beyond that they haven’t been as good as they should be, basically playing to the level of every opponent and losing 2 games in Q3/4. They are still safely in right now but it’s time they start flexing their muscle a little bit, as they’ve lost 2 of the last 4. They get 2 big Q2 chances this week to try and prove they are as good as that win over Arizona suggests, with SMU coming in and then a trip to a reeling Memphis team. If they can go 2-0 this week and extend their Q1/2 record to 9-4 then we will be able to lock FAU up, but I’m starting to wonder if I should still have this high of expectations for last year’s March Cinderella. 

Teetering: 

South Florida: 19-5 (12-1) — Q1: (1-0) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (10-2) SOS (236) Q1(A): (0-0)

USF has now won 11 straight games and are 17-1 in their last 18 games after starting just 2-4. The most recent win over FAU to extend their lead in the American by 2 games is the one that should have gotten everyone’s attention, as they’ve proven they can contend with elite teams. They are lead by a transfer tandem in the backcourt of Chris Youngblood (via Kennesaw St) and Selton Miguel (via Kansas St) who are both 42% 3-point shooters and are the go-to shot makers for the Bulls offensively. You have to give first year HC Amir Abdur-Rahim a ton of credit, as he came over from Kennesaw St, brought his best player with him and now has USF in position to make a push for a tourney berth in just his first season. It’s an incredible turn around, and clear proof that this man can coach, but what they can’t allow to happen is a let down this week after that massive win. They travel to UTSA in a dangerous one that you can’t lose, and then they host SMU with a chance to improve that Q2 record to 4-3. Overall the resumé isn’t very great right now, with a disgusting SOS and just 4 Q1/2 wins total. However, with the SMU game and then a trip to Charlotte upcoming they have a couple of chances to grow that Q2 record to 5-3. That could be enough if they can win out, but a few more wins in the American Conference would help out a ton. There’s work to do, but they’ve earned their way onto the bubble radar. 

Memphis: 18-8 (7-6) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (6-1) SOS (96) Q1(A): (0-1)

I thought maybe Memphis had figured something out as they picked up 3 straight wins but back-to-back losses have once again put them in a dire situation with just 5 remaining. They had such a strong non-conference with wins over Clemson/Virginia/Texas A&M that they still have a path, but they have to win out the rest of the way in my opinion, which would mean sweeping FAU. If they finish 4-1 losing to FAU on the road they may not be dead, but they would probably need to make a run to the American Championship game to have a chance. It is as dire as it gets, but both games against Charlotte and FAU are at home this week, so they could get right back on the saddle and make this thing realistic again if they can go 2-0 this week. I don’t have much faith, but it’s possible. 

---

–WCC–

Locks:

 

 

On the Right Track: 

Teetering:

Gonzaga: 19-6 (10-2) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (11-0) SOS (98) Q1(A): (1-3)

Gonzaga continues to hold serve as they rip through the WCC schedule, with eyes on the final two games of the season on the road vs San Fran and Saint Mary’s. There are many folks out there who have elevated the Zags into the field already, with the one quality win over Kentucky, but I am not convinced that’s the way the committee would go. I have them out of the field, with just 3 Q1/2 wins that is the fewest of any team on the watch. I understand the win @ Kentucky was impressive, but I do believe the entire resumé evaluation process was so that we would avoid judging teams on the basis of one single game, and the fact is they really have nothing to offer beyond that one win @ Kentucky, however impressive it is. Should we just put a team like Pitt in as well since they won @ Duke? I understand the Zags have just 1 loss outside of Q1, but the SOS is supposed to matter, at least I thought. However you slice it they have those two road games to finish the season to prove they deserve to be in, and if they sweep those 2 they certainly would be. We’ll go ahead and wait and see how it plays out, but I wouldn’t be very confident if I was a Zags fan until I see them pick up a 2nd or 3rd Q1 win. 

---

–Others–

Locks: 

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

Grand Canyon: 23-2 (14-1) — Q1: (1-0) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (13-0) SOS (270) Q1(A): (0-0)

Well, thanks to multiple losses by Indiana St, Grand Canyon now sits as the best chance for one of these true mid-majors to try and get an at-large berth. If it was up to me the wins over San Diego St and San Fran would be enough, especially since they’ve been so dominant through their Conference schedule up until this point. They’re so much better than the rest of this Conference that I don’t think they’ll need to rely on the at-large, but at say 30-3 with a win over a top-20 team in San Diego St I’m not sure how you leave them out. I’ve been surprised before, but I truly think they have a chance if they can just continue to roll through the WAC. They have 2 road games this week that will really test their focus, but a 2-0 week will keep them right on track. 

McNeese St: 19-3 (12-1) — Q1: (1-0) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (14-1) SOS (307) Q1(A): (0-0)

McNeese has a slightly worse case to make than Grand Canyon does, as they do have the 1 Q1 win like the Antelopes but it’s not over a top-20 team. In fact, it’s barely hanging on as Q1, so their chances are a bit grim right now as they have 0 opportunities to add to their resumé in their conference. They too would present the committee with a difficult case, but I think they could justify leaving them out more-so than Grand Canyon with that sub-300 SOS. Credit to Will Wade and the coaching job he’s done and we’ll all just hope they are able to ease their way through the Southland tourney so we don’t have to see them get left out if that’s what it comes to. McNeese upsetting someone in the first round is what we all want.  

James Madison: 23-3 (11-3) — Q1: (1-0) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (4-2) Q4: (17-0) SOS (304) Q1(A): (1-0)

As we said previously with Grand Canyon it’s all about that 1 big time win in the non-conference, as JMU has been sitting on a road win over Michigan St since the season began. They don’t have as many Q2 wins as either GCU or McNeese, but that 1 win sure is a big one as it was on the road. It’s the same story though, they have to finish strong by winning the 4 games they have left. At 27-3 if they were to win a couple more on a neutral court and then lose to App St or Troy they may have a shot, especially if it’s Troy and they’re able to knock off App St. It will be a wild tourney for the Fun Belt, as the JMU story will undoubtedly attract much more attention than usual. They just have to bring it home with 4 more wins to set the stage. 

Most Recent Update – Click Here

We’re back as the season continues to roll on and storylines continue to develop as the bubble starts to tighten up. Teams are jockeying for position, and we have several teams on the rise while others are falling off a cliff. Rutgers and UCLA have joined the watch for the first time as they have started piling wins and have the schedule in front of them to pull off incredible comeback stories and squeak their way into the dance. Their efforts will be helped by teams like Utah and New Mexico who were pretty safely in a few weeks ago and have started dropping games they shouldn’t be. Oh and should we mention Wisconsin losing 4 in a row after sitting pretty comfortably on the 2 seed line just 2 weeks ago? With just 4 weeks to go in the regular season pressure is mounting on every team on this list to capitalize on the opportunities in front of them and avoid disaster. 

Of course, we know March will be just as wild and unpredictable as ever, but what we can’t allow to be wild and unpredictable is Selection Sunday. So, I’m going to assign teams to 3 groups – Locks, On the Right Track and Teetering. Any team left out is not even on the radar, so maybe 4 groups for you sticklers out there. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.

“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.

“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 7-8 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.

“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, all the way to the bottom feeders who are holding on to a glimmer of at-large hope with much to do. 

For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), NET SOS and a final category being the Q1(A) record. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 68 teams on the first watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 2/12. Check out my current bracket projection here. 

Bubble Breakdown:

Total Bids: 68

1-bid conferences: 19

Locks: 10

Bids Left: 39

Bubble: 56

---

–ACC–

Locks: 

 

On the Right Track:

Duke: 18-5 (9-3) — Q1: (5-2) Q2: (0-2) Q3: (8-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (79) Q1(A): (2-2) 

Duke added 2 to the win total this week but it didn’t help the resumé all that much to rack up a Q3 and 4 win. They have 5 big time Q1 wins, but that 0-3 Q2 record is as ugly as it gets, so we have to keep our eye on this thing as we head down the stretch because 5-5 in Q1/2 isn’t a bullet proof spot to be in. They have a huge week to improve that record with Wake Forest coming to Cameron Indoor and then a trip to Florida St, in what should be 2 Q2 wins. That would improve that to 2-3 in Q2 and 7-5 overall in those top-2 categories which would make this feel a whole lot better. I think everyone out there is in agreement that this Duke team is better than their resumé suggests, as they seem to be getting better and better as this young group continues to come together. At some point though they’re going to have to prove everyone right, and that can start this week. 

Clemson: 16-7 (6-6) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (18) Q1(A): (2-2) 

Clemson desperately needed to bounce back this week, and boy oh boy did they ever. They first went to Chapel Hill and knocked off UNC to pick up yet another Q1 win and their biggest of the season. They backed up that big time win by going to Syracuse and picking up yet another win. It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster ride for the Tigers, but they’re on the up slope right now and get to return home for two very winnable games against Miami and NC State. Those 2 are part of a final 8 game stretch where they have just 3 road games, 1 of which is Notre Dame who they absolutely should beat, and another Georgia Tech which is winnable. A 7-1 finish is absolutely in the cards, and would be more than enough to get Clemson into the field. 

Virginia: 19-5 (10-3) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (91) Q1(A): (1-2) 

The Hoos are on absolute fire right now as they’ve ripped off 8 wins in a row in the ACC and in the process have put themselves in a good position to make the tournament after being out of the field for a majority of the season. Their key issue right now is just SOS and the lack of Q1 wins, as 2 isn’t going to wow anyone and if that’s all they end up with it might not be enough. That 5-2 record in Q2 is good though, and they will get two chances at home to add to that number this week as both Pitt and Wake Forest come to town. Based on how they’re playing I have little doubt they will continue to tear through this schedule this week, and at 21-5 and 9-4 in Q1/2 would be in a fantastic spot. Now, some of those Q2 wins are barely hanging on so things could change, but they should still set themselves up nicely for a massive home chance next week as they host UNC 2/24. That one should be circled, as that is the final Q1 home game for the Hoos, gotta capitalize. 

Teetering:

Miami (FL): 15-9 (6-7) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (6-1) SOS: (72) Q1(A): (0-4) 

Miami had two big opportunities this week and lost both, as they continue to slip further and further down the bubble. They first were absolutely dog-walked by Virginia, mustering just 38 points, and embarrassment for a team that prides itself on its offensive ability. They then returned home to face UNC and lost a close one down the stretch, but ultimately it was the same old story as they once again gave up more than 1 point per possession and couldn’t keep up. They’re now 104th in defensive efficiency, and while you could make up for that they’re just not an elite team offensively, just 58th. If you don’t defend and you’re not consistently good offensively it’s going to be a long season, and that is what we’ve seen over the last 11 as they’ve gone just 4-7. Their at-large hopes are now on life support, as they have those 2 Q3/4 losses to try and make up for and just 2 Q1 wins. They play @ Clemson and BC this week in what feels like a must-win situation almost the rest of the way. At minimum they need to beat BC, but at 16-10 would still not feel all that great. It’s nut up or shut up time for the Hurricanes. 

Wake Forest: 16-7 (8-4) — Q1: (0-3) Q2: (5-4) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (83) Q1(A): (0-1)

Wake Forest is starting to heat up a little, evidenced by their recent 3 game win streak that has put them in position to capitalize on some big chances upcoming. They are still aren’t playing great defense, but they did hold both Syracuse and Georgia Tech to less than 1 point per possession. Also, when you have a guy like Hunter Sallis who can pop for 33 like he did on Saturday you can get away with it. They’ll need to be at their best this week though, as they head to Duke and then to white hot Virginia. If they can find a way to pick off one of those teams on the road they could climb into that first 4 out/next 4 out conversation. Yes, it’s going to take more than just 1 Q1 win, but they have no bad losses and a 5-4 Q2 record that they can improve upon. They still have Duke/Pitt/Clemson at home down the stretch, so everything is in front of them. 

N.C. State: 15-9 (7-6) — Q1: (0-6) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (71) Q1(A): (0-5)

Well the Wolfpack are now in desperation mode as they not only lost @ Wake Forest in a tough one, but also at home to Pitt which was almost the final blow. They still have enough opportunities on the schedule to see a path, but they have to be damn near perfect the rest of the way. There are several teams on the watch that are facing crucial stretches, and NC State is among them. If they don’t go to Clemson and win this week that leaves only a trip to UNC and a home game with Duke left to pick up Q1 wins. I’m declaring this a must-sweep week for NC State, as if they drop either game this week they will fall off the bubble radar. I just can’t see them getting in with only 1 Q1 win, and 2 most likely wouldn’t be enough now with just a 4-3 record in Q2. They are barely clinging on, but there’s ultimately still a sliver of a chance. 

Syracuse: 14-9 (6-7) — Q1: (1-7) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (28) Q1(A): (0-6)

I’m officially putting Syracuse in the same camp as NC State, as they absolutely are in must-win territory if they want to have a chance. They lost another golden opportunity this weekend by losing to Clemson at home, and are down to just 2 more Q1 chances in the regular season. One of those chances comes this week, with UNC heading to New York in what will be their final chance at home to try and prove they deserve to be in the field. I don’t think they’re good enough, I mean they only beat Louisville by 2 this past week so that’s not a rash statement. However, there’s still that glimmer of hope, so they remain on the bubble, even if it may be for the last time. Beat UNC and Georgia Tech this week and there’s definitely still a chance. 

---

–Big Ten–

Locks:

On the Right Track:

Illinois: 17-6 (8-4) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (43) Q1(A): (0-4)

The Illini had some time off this week before they took a trip to East Lansing in what ended up being a very fun game to watch, but was ultimately a loss. They played really well offensively but really struggled defensively as Sparty put up 88 points. They are as good as it gets on the offensive end, playing Coleman Hawkins at the 5 has them playing 5-out and creates some matchup nightmares. However, they just don’t defend well enough, and that’s hurt them time and time again against good teams. The loss in the end is not a bad loss by any means, but they do have just 3 Q1 wins and are 0-4 in the Q1(A) category. This upcoming week has a home game vs Michigan that is a can’t-lose game and then a trip to Maryland that is going to mean way more to the Terps than to Illinois. If they can go on the road and pick up another Q1 win I will feel confident to lock them up at 19-6. But fall to just 7-6 in Q1/2 games with a trip to Madison and a game vs Purdue still on the schedule, among others, and we’d still need to see a bit more from the Illini. 

Wisconsin: 16-8 (8-5) — Q1: (6-5) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (3) Q1(A): (2-3) 

Oh no Wisconsin, not like this again. We’ve mentioned in the past their complete meltdown a year ago, finishing the season 4-12 after starting 11-2, and we may be witnessing a Badger collapse yet again. They lost to both Michigan and Rutgers on the road this week, the latter by 22 points while giving up 78 points to a team that is now 284th in offensive efficiency. It’s as low a low as you could imagine a team that started the season 16-4 could get to in a 2 week period, but it might not be as low as they go. 5 of their last 7 games are Q1/2 games, with one of the other 2 being a rematch with Rutgers. I warned of the impending 4 game losing streak, could we see them finish just 2-5 down the stretch? That would have them losing all of their road games and then to Illinois and Maryland at home. Maybe the Maryland game is a stretch, but can you really say that when they just lost to Michigan? Even a 3-4 finish the rest of the way would mean they finish the season 3-8 and would leave them just 19-12 with a 10-12 record in Q1/2. I have no idea where that would leave them on the seed line but it certainly wouldn’t be above a 9 or 10. They could be in real danger the next time we meet. What a fall from grace for the Badgers. 

Northwestern: 17-7 (8-5) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-1) SOS: (37) Q1(A): (2-3)

Northwestern continues to march forward, knocking off Nebraska and Penn St at home as they inch closer to being a sure thing come Selection Sunday. They were without Ty Berry for much of the Nebraska game and the entire Penn St game, but still found a way to get dubs and will hope to have Berry back in short order as they rely on his scoring. They have an extremely difficult trip to the RAC to face a Rutgers team that is on fire, and follow that one up with a trip to a desperate IU team. It’s a difficult week but if they can find a way to split these road games we might will be very close to being able to lock these Wildcats up. There’s a very real chance they go 0-2 though, which will put the pressure on the rest of the way. 

Teetering: 

Nebraska: 17-8 (7-7) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (51) Q1(A): (2-2)

The Cornhuskers split the week, as we figured, losing @ Northwestern and then bouncing back to beat Michigan at home. They find themselves in an interesting position, as they have a clean resumé and have 2 giant wins to their name (Purdue, Wisconsin). They are a menace at home, but have just a 1-7 road record to this point, which is one of the many points the committee will look at when seeding. So, while it looks like on the surface, with their record and those big wins, they should be sitting pretty, but I’m still not feeling like Nebraska is totally safe with just a 6-8 Q1/2 record and that ugly road record as well. They have some opportunities to add some road wins down the stretch of the season though, starting this week with a trip to IU. They get Penn St at home first, so a sweep this week would go a long way toward boosting this resumé. The IU win would bump them to 4-3 in Q2 as well, making things look even better. It’s not a must-win by any means, but a loss there would move you to 6-9 in Q1/2, below .500 in each, and that would not be all that pretty. 

Michigan St:  15-9 (7-6) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (15) Q1(A): (2-4) 

Michigan St dropped an inexcusable one this week as they went to Minnesota and lost when they desperately needed to add to their resumé. They were able to bounce back though, beating a tough Illini team on Saturday in a game that was back and forth the entire way. The play of Malik Hall was the difference maker, as he was far more aggressive, scoring 22 after putting up just 6 in the loss to Minnesota. They desperately need him to help out guards Walker and Hoggard, as they’re just not good enough to shoulder the entire offensive load. While the metrics still love this Sparty team, with the 1-1 week and the overall 5-9 Q1/2 record I have them in the Last 4 Byes group. They feel a little more secure after that Illinois win, picking up their 2nd Q1(A) victory, but they are still in a position where they can’t afford to slip up the rest of the way. They have 2 big chances to slip up this week as they head to Penn St and Michigan. Those are 2 games you need to win if you’re a top-25 team like the computers are telling us. We’ll see if they can back it up on the court. 

Rutgers: 13-10 (5-6) — Q1: (1-8) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (23) Q1(A): (0-5)

Out of the ashes Rutgers has scratched and clawed their way onto the bubble after just a 2-7 start to Big Ten play. They’ve rattled off 3 in a row now, with their most recent blowout of Wisconsin making this thing very real. That followed up a road win over Maryland which gave them 2 more Q1/2 wins and breathed life into what I believed to be an already dead team. What I didn’t see coming was the return of Jeremiah Williams and how much that was going to impact this team. He has come from nowhere to now be their #1 offensive weapon, which is huge for a team that was somewhere around 300th offensively prior to him entering the lineup. They’re now the 2nd best defensive team in the Country, and have climbed their way to 283rd offensively. Still bad, but they just hung 78 on Wisconsin and have 2 very winnable games on tap this week. It starts with a home game vs Northwestern, a team that can really score but can be vulnerable when things get physical. That is Rutgers strength, so a win there would add yet another Q2 win and give them a shot at moving to 7-9 in Q1/2 if they can follow it up with a win @ Minnesota. Don’t look now, but the Scarlet Knights are making a real run at this thing. 

---

–Big 12–

Locks: 

 

On the Right Track:

Baylor: 16-6 (6-4) — Q1: (5-4) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (18) Q1(A): (3-3)

The week for Baylor went about as we expected, as they took care of business at home vs Texas Tech and then lost @ Allen Fieldhouse to Kansas. Nothing to be ashamed of with that loss, especially when you consider they held them to just 64 points. They dominated the boards and basically every category but one, turnovers, and that was ultimately their undoing as they coughed it up 21 times to Kansas’ 8. That was the difference in a game that they easily could have stolen on the road, as Kansas really struggled to shoot the ball. With the loss they still remain outside of the lock group, but as we said last week there’s winnable games coming up that if they just handle their business we will be able to lock em up. It starts this week with Oklahoma coming to Waco and then a trip to West Virginia. That’s a chance to stack another quality win and then you just have to avoid a disaster in Morgantown. Go 2-0 and we’ll forget about Baylor until Selection Sunday. 

BYU: 17-6 (5-5) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (52) Q1(A): (1-4)

It’s been a pretty ho-hum stretch for BYU, as they haven’t had a Q1 win since Jan 16th but have avoided any bad losses. They lost on the road to Oklahoma and then came home to beat K-State, pretty much what was expected. The good news is they finally had their full assortment of weapons back on Saturday, as they finally don’t appear to be battling any major injuries and were able to play 9 guys, getting 30 bench points. They are a deep team with a unique 1-2 punch in the frontcourt with Aly Khalifa and Fous Traore. Those 2 hadn’t been healthy together for a while, and while they don’t play at the same time often it’s quite a combo to have to prepare for, as Khalifa plays like a point forward from the elbow often times and Traore is a back to the basket monster. To have both guys back healthy is huge for them in the stretch run, and they’ll look to get hot this week as they get UCF at home and then take a trip to Oklahoma St. It’s a week where an alleged top-20 team should go 2-0, and now that they’re healthy there’s no excuse. 

Oklahoma: 18-6 (6-5) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (55) Q1(A): (2-3)

The Sooners are feeling pretty good right now after beating both BYU and Oklahoma St this week, but they now enter a very difficult stretch run here with 7 to go. I’m looking at this schedule and seeing a world where they finish just 2-5, which would drop them to 3-9 in Q1 and overall 8-11 in Q1/2. That would put them in a pretty tough spot, depending on how the rest of the bubble performs. They have just 3 home games remaining, with 2 of those being Kansas and Houston. Obviously they could win those and leave no doubts, but drop those 2 and the only ones I’m seeing as W’s are at home vs Cincy and @ Oklahoma St. They have Baylor/Iowa St/Texas all on the road, basically sure losses there. If they can just beat Kansas or Houston at home I think they avoid a complete collapse, but this back-loaded schedule could spell disaster if Oklahoma doesn’t start playing a little better. They just almost lost to Oklahoma St at home, and we’ve discussed their inconsistent play before. They head to Baylor and then host Kansas this week, so I’ll be watching them closely as an 0-2 week is very possible and could be the beginning of a complete meltdown. 

Teetering:

Texas Tech: 17-6 (6-4) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (69) Q1(A): (3-2)

Texas Tech is not in a great position right now but have so many chances in front of them that they shouldn’t feel too worried. They have 4 Q1/2 home games left on the schedule and have 2 winnable road games with WVU and Oklahoma St. That’s a legitimate chance to go 6-2 down the stretch and make this an open and shut case. I have a little pause on thinking that will happen given they are now just 1-3 in their last 4, but the most recent game was a win over a tough UCF team and they battled Baylor to the bitter end at their place. This is a decent team and HC McCasland deserves credit for turning this roster over and in year 1 having them be so competitive in what is a very tough league. They have a massive opportunity to boost their resumé on Monday night as they host Kansas, with a chance to rack up their 4th Q1 win and move to 5-6 in Q1/2 games. The SOS is pretty bad, but the games the rest of the way give them plenty of opportunity to build up that record. After the Kansas game they head to Iowa St, so it’s a big week of opportunity but it’s also a dangerous week where falling to 3-7 in Q1 would start to make things very dicey. Have to capitalize. 

Texas: 16-8 (5-6) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (27) Q1(A): (4-4)

Texas was unable to convert on a massive chance as they lost to Iowa St at home, failing to pick up a big time Q1 win. They bounced back by whooping WVU, but they still sit just 5-7 in Q1/2 games. The 4 Q1 wins set them apart from many bubble teams, which is huge, but that 1-2 Q2 record and a Q3 loss mean you need those wins to balance things out. They have just 3 home games left to finish the season, with only 1 of them being a Q1/2 game as it stands. What that means is they are going to have to find a way to start picking up some road wins, or else they could find themselves just 4-9 in Q1 if they can’t find a way to knock off one of Houston/Kansas/Texas Tech/Baylor on the road. That’s a gauntlet, but that’s life in the Big 12, and if they only finish 3-4 down the stretch that will leave them just 6-11 in Q1/2 games. I’m not sure where that would put them but it certainly wouldn’t be a comfortable position, and it could be out of the field entirely. The homestretch is huge, and it starts with the toughest test left as they head to Houston next Saturday in their lone game this week. I expect it to stay dire for the Longhorns for some time. 

TCU: 16-7 (5-5) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (56) Q1(A): (2-3)

TCU played just once since we last met and fell @ Iowa St, suffering the same fate as every team that’s gone to Ames this year. It’s nothing to be ashamed of, but they fall to just 5-7 in Q1/2 games, with a weak non-conference that’s dragging them down. They still have 3 Q1/2 chances at home left on the schedule, plus some road opportunities, so everything is in front of them. I have them in the field as of now, as should most, but if they start dropping more Q1/2 games without adding anything it could go the other way quickly. They have a bounce back game with WVU coming to Fort Worth on Monday night, and then have to travel to K-State in what will be an absolutely massive bubble game on Saturday. Go 2-0 this week and we’re feeling quite a bit better, but if they lose to K-State they may switch places with them at just 5-8 in Q1/2. 

Kansas St: 15-9 (5-6) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (61) Q1(A): (1-3)

I said last week this Kansas St team had to beat Kansas or it was all she wrote for their at-large hopes, and they took care of business. Now, it doesn’t mean they’re in the field by any means, they’re just 1-4 in their last 5 games, but it keeps them alive. They followed it up with a loss @ BYU, but have yet another chance to rack up a quality win on Saturday as they host TCU. I would like to be clear I don’t think this team is very good, they’re really bad offensively, as they turn the ball over at almost the highest rate in the country and are pathetically bad from 3, shooting just 31%. However, they’ve found a way to beat both Kansas and Baylor thanks to their defense, and they’ll hope to continue to ride that down the stretch. They have 3 massive home games left, with the first being TCU and then BYU and Iowa St later in the season. If they can pair those 3 wins with another home win over WVU that should be enough to get them in with 9 total Q1/2 wins. 

Cincinnati: 15-8 (4-6) — Q1: (2-6) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (51) Q1(A): (2-3)

It was an opportunity to pick up a season defining win on Saturday for Cincy, but they let yet another chance slip through their fingertips as they fall to just 2-6 in Q1 games after the home loss to Houston. It was the lone game since we last met, and what it means is they remain on the outside looking in with 8 to go. As we’ve said with all of the other Big 12 bubble teams, they’re in the land of opportunity, so while it’s a bummer of a loss they hop right back on the wagon as Iowa St comes to Cincy on Tuesday night. It’s another chance to rack up that 3rd Q1 win in their fight to get in the dance, and it’s followed up by another chance as they travel to UCF. I don’t see a 2-0 week coming, but a split of those games means they move to 3-7 in Q1 which keeps them alive. If they fail to win either game though it could be curtains, as the home game vs Iowa St is the final home Q1 chance. You just have to find a way if you want a shot, so it’s nut up or shut up time for the Bearcats. 

UCF: 13-9 (4-6) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-1) SOS: (46) Q1(A): (2-4)

As we expected UCF lost their lone matchup this week in Lubbock and fall to just 4-8 in Q1/2 games. It was the same old story for them as they defended well but just couldn’t score enough to win a tough game. As we said last week though the schedule is going to soften a little bit after their road game this week against BYU. After that one, which they will likely lose, they have a 6 game stretch full of opportunity, and a pretty realistic shot to go 5-1 and play themselves into the field. They have home games vs Cincy/Texas Tech/Iowa St/Houston and 2 of the road games are vs West Virginia/Oklahoma St. It’s asking a lot for them to beat both Houston and Iowa St, but if they can find a way to split that group and win the other 4 then we’re probably going to see UCF flip the script and be in. It’s starts this week, and while they may lose to BYU on the road they get Cincy at home in a chance to even up that Q2 record. They have to be damn near perfect, but there remains a path for this pesky UCF squad. 

---

–Big East–

Locks:

   

On the Right Track:

Creighton: 17-7 (8-5) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (38) Q1(A): (1-2)

Creighton was able to grind out a win @ Xavier after dropping another one @ Providence earlier in the week in OT. I spoke at length at my concerns with the reliance on their big 4 and how many minutes they’re having to log, and it was on full display in the Providence loss as they gave up 47 2nd half points and another 13 in OT. Everything is on that group of 4, and they bounced back in the win @ Xavier, but I’m wondering how sustainable it is for the BlueJays. They get Georgetown at home in a game that should allow the starters to get some 2nd half rest, and they’ll need it as they head to Butler later in the week with a chance to avenge their loss at home to the Bulldogs. If they can go 2-0 this week that’ll get them locked up, but another loss would just keep them in a dangerous spot with 2 more Q1 games on deck the next week. They are comfortably in, but as I mentioned last week, the schedule down the stretch is brutal so it could go south quickly. 

Teetering:

Butler: 15-8 (7-6) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (13) Q1(A): (2-3)

Butler is still moving in the right direction despite a loss @ UConn this week, as they were able to bounce back and beat Providence at home. It was looking a little dicey as they trailed by 7 with 4 to go in that one, but they were able to finish the game on an 11-1 run and grind out a tough win. That’s now a 5-1 stretch for the Bulldogs as they have risen all the way to the 8-9 seed line by my estimation with that 7-7 Q1/2 record. The road wins over Marquette and Creighton are just icing on the cake, as this resumé has gotten better and better as the weeks have gone on. This week they get both of those teams at home in the rematches, where they get a chance to sweep two of the top teams in the Conference. If they can win both games at home that’ll get them to 5 Q1 wins which is going to catapult them into the On the Right Track group. It’s tough to sweep teams in Conference play, but they’ve already done the hard part by winning on the road. The danger is what’s lurking after this home stand are two very difficult road games, so if they’re unable to defend home court this hot streak could turn ugly quick. It’s a massive week of opportunity, and I’d think they need to at minimum win 1 of these 2 big time games at home. 

St. John’s: 14-10 (6-7) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (6) Q1(A): (0-6)

Rick Pitino and co. are struggling to stay afloat as they slog through this Big East schedule, as they are now just 2-6 in their last 8 games. They split the week, beating up on DePaul at home and then losing @ Marquette, which is not a game you expect to win. The unfortunate part is they were up 9 at halftime, but Tyler Kolek took over in the 2nd half and St. John’s could do nothing about it, as he scored 27 and had 13 assists. Dude is a killer, and that just adds one more Q1 loss to the pile as they are now just 2-7. They are right on the cusp of in and out, and are down to just 3 more Q1 chances in their final 7 games. The 1st of which comes right away as they head to Providence next to face a team that is wounded and desperate. They could definitely use that one, but so could Providence, so we’re looking at a game with massive bubble implications on Tuesday night. After that they get Seton Hall at home, another fellow bubble team desperate for good wins. It’s never easy in this year’s Big East, and while these 2 this week are important, the home game with Creighton next week is the one I have circled. Split this week and win that one and that might be enough if they can handle business the rest of the way. 

Seton Hall: 15-9 (8-5) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (2-2) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (47) Q1(A): (2-2)

Seton Hall added a meaningless win over Georgetown this week and then got their doors blown off @ Villanova on Sunday. They never led in the game, which is shocking for a team that has performed well away from home with already 4 Conference road wins. Either way, they’ve dropped to just 5-7 in Q1/2 with now 2 Q3 losses as a stain on the resumé. The good news is they have 4 home games left, 3 of which will be Q2 chances so they’re going to have a chance to swing that Q2 record in their favor. They have massive wins over both UConn and Marquette, so if they can just win their home games down the stretch that will be a 4-3 finish that moves them to 4-2 in Q2 and overall 8-10 in Q1/2. That will give them a solid chance, and obviously picking off one more on the road would probably have them safely in. In terms of schedule remaining I think Seton Hall is in the best position in this group of Big East teams who are all fighting to make the tourney. It starts this week with Xavier coming in and then a trip to St. John’s. Win your home games and you’ve got a shot. 

Providence: 15-9 (6-7) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (0-1) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (35) Q1(A): (1-3)

The season was likely on the line for Providence this past week and they answered the bell, knocking off Creighton at home to keep their at-large hopes alive. They lost a tough one @ Butler later in the week, but that was without star big man Josh Oduro and they were close to pulling it out. You have to give Kim English and this team credit as they just bring the fight every night, and while they are struggling offensively at times their defense always keeps them in games. Their schedule is nice down the stretch as well, as they have 4/7 at home, with one of the road games being Georgetown, so that’s a very realistic shot at going 5-2 to bring this thing home. The biggest one is the final game of the season when they host UConn, which added to this resumé would put them in prime position to be in the field. It’s all in front of them and it starts this week as St. John’s comes in as a Q2 chance and then they host DePaul. 2-0 week and they could get themselves out of the Last 4 in/First 4 out discussions and have a firm place in the field. 

Villanova: 13-11 (6-7) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (3-3) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (16) Q1(A): (2-3)

Nova dropped another winnable game last week @ Xavier, and while they bounced back to blow out Seton Hall at home I’m just running out of hope for this very talented team. They’re just 6-8 in Q1/2 games with those 3 Q3 losses hanging out there, so it’s going to take near perfection the rest of the way if they want a shot at an at-large bid. They have 4 road games remaining and just 3 at home, so they’re going to have to figure out how to steal a couple on the road, with the game @ Georgetown on Friday night the easiest of those chances. They’ll lose @ UConn, but I’m eyeing the games @ Providence/Seton Hall to begin March as the pivotal games down the stretch. That would add to wins over Butler and Creighton at home, so there’s opportunities to salvage this thing but it’s going to take a Herculean effort. I’m not convinced they have what it takes, but the path is there. 

---

–Pac-12–

Locks: 

On the Right Track:

Washington St: 18-6 (9-4) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS (77) Q1(A): (1-1)

Wazzu is now the official surprise of the season, as they’ve ripped off 8 of their last 9 Pac-12 games and just went to Eugene and beat a desperate Oregon team. I think they’re firmly in the dance right now and clearly have the 2nd best resumé in this Conference, including that home win over Arizona. Myles Rice is the best story in college hoops that nobody is talking about, and what HC Kyle Smith has been able to do with this program should have him winning the final Pac-12 COY award. I will continue to bang the drum for this team, and I know West coast hoops just doesn’t get much attention but we have to shine a light on this team as they’re hot and have stories for days. I mean how many teams in college basketball have a FR leading scorer who just battled non-Hodgkin lymphoma while simultaneously playing dudes from places like Macedonia and Nigeria. Great team, great story, nobody talking about them. This week they get Cal and Stanford at home, so the train should keep on rolling as they get closer and closer to being locked up. 

Teetering:

Utah: 15-9 (6-7) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (20) Q1(A): (2-4)

Well, the Utes are officially in free-fall as they’re now just 1-4 in their last 5 games and not only missed a chance to knock off Arizona, losing in OT, they followed that up by losing at home to Arizona St. That adds a Q3 loss to the resumé and all of a sudden it’s looking like we could be witnessing a collapse. You may think, well that’s a bit rash, the Pac-12 offers a ton of winnable games to get this thing turned around, and for the most part you are correct. However, the Utes finish the season with 5 of 7 on the road and are 0-5 in Pac-12 road games. If they can’t figure out a way to win on the road and stop the bleeding we may witness a fall from as high as a 6 seed to all the way out of the field. They start with a reeling USC team that just has to be a win, it just has to be. They follow it up with UCLA to end the week, and the fact is UCLA is playing much better basketball so that’s probably a loss. Split the week and they’re still alive, but 0-2 may send them out of the field altogether as that would drop them to 7-10 in Q1/2 with a Q3 loss. 

Oregon:  16-8 (8-5) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (75) Q1(A): (1-3)

Oregon blew yet another chance at home as they lost to Wazzu after beating Washington. That drops them to just 5-7 in Q1/2 with only 1 Q1 game remaining on the schedule, @ Arizona. It’s looking very dire for the Ducks, but I do think a 6-1 finish to the season is realistic and gives them a shot at getting in, as it would move them to 7-3 in Q2 and overall 9-7 in Q1/2. They may need some help in the Pac-12 tourney but they’d still be alive in my eyes if they can finish 6-1. Any loss aside from the game @ Arizona would likely be the final nail in the coffin, so they need to win 3 straight road games coming up. They have the week off and then play @ Oregon St on Saturday. They are all basically must-win for the Ducks the rest of the way, we’ll see if they can pull it off. 

Colorado: 16-8 (7-6) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (69) Q1(A): (0-4)

Colorado is in desperation mode after blowing their biggest chance of the season on Saturday night, losing large to Arizona at home. It was a game they desperately needed and they got smacked, giving up 99 points and losing by 20. Arizona is a great team, but they’ve lost to worse teams, so for the Buffs to just never have a chance was very surprising. They now have just 1 Q1 chance remaining with a trip to Oregon in early March, so until then it’s must-win time as they truly can’t afford another loss. 1 Q1 win is not going to be enough, even if they can push it to 8-3 in Q2, I just don’t think 1 win @ Washington can carry them in. We are looking at a team that needs to run the table, and it’s not going to be easy as they head a UCLA team that is on fire and then to USC after that. Have to pull both of these off or it’s night night for a team that had a ton of promise entering the season. 

UCLA: 13-11 (8-5) — Q1: (0-6) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (1-3) Q4: (5-1) SOS (69) Q1(A): (0-3)

Don’t look now but the Bruins are absolutely on fire, and while their resumé has some stains on it from earlier in the season, if they can continue this run they’re on they are going to re-enter the bubble chat. They have now gone 7-1 in their last 8 games, with the lone loss @ Arizona, nothing to hang your head about. This has all been on the heels of Mick Cronin absolutely losing his mind at the poor play of his team, I guess maybe he reached them. They obviously still have some winning to do, but they actually have some good chances left in spite of being in the bad Pac-12. This week they get 2 more Q2 chances with both Colorado and Utah coming in. Win both of those games and we’ll all have to take this group seriously as they’d move to 8-1 in Q2 games, and although they don’t have a Q1 win they’ll have chances later in the year with Arizona at home and trips to Washington and Washington St still on the schedule. They need near perfection, but with the way they’ve been playing that doesn’t look all that far fetched. What a job by Cronin. 

---

–SEC–

Locks: 

   

On the Right Track:

Alabama: 17-7 (9-2) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (4) Q1(A): (2-5)

The Tide went on the road this week and got curb stomped by Auburn as their defensive inefficiencies were on full display giving up 99 points and never really standing a chance. They bounced back with a win @ LSU to keep themselves in great position with just 7 games to play. At this point we know exactly who Alabama is, and it was highlighted this past week, giving up 99 and 92 but going 1-1 by scoring 109 in their 2nd game. They play ultra fast and let it fly from 3, but defensively their missing that big man presence inside to block shots and rebound. That missing piece isn’t going to keep them from making the tourney, but it is going to cause them to lose a few more games down the stretch, especially with 3 tough road tests and Tennessee at home on the schedule. They have the week off and then face Texas A&M at home on Saturday in a game that will add to their Q2 win total if they can get enough stops. The key there will be rebounding, as the Aggies are the best offensive rebounding team in the Country, a bad matchup for Bama. 

Auburn: 19-5 (8-3) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (67) Q1(A): (1-4)

Auburn got their revenge on rival Alabama, pummeling them by 18 at home in a raucous environment. That led to a natural let down on the road though, as they traveled to Florida and they themselves got pummeled, falling by 16 in Gainesville. While not surprising, a loss like that was a bit concerning as they shot the ball poorly (just 3-16 from 3), were out-rebounded and turned it over 15 times to Florida’s 7. Those last two are typical strengths for Auburn, so you may be able to just chalk this one up to a Bama hangover but it would be nice to see them bounce back. All things considered it was still a massive week as they picked up a 2nd Q1 victory in the win over Bama and a road loss to a fellow tourney team is nothing to be too upset about. They will look to get themselves locked up this week, as they have 2 home games with South Carolina and Kentucky. If they’re able to go 2-0 at home this week I’ll feel pretty good about locking up the Tigers at 9-5 in Q1/2, and I have little doubt they’ll get it done. 

Kentucky: 16-7 (6-4) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS (70) Q1(A): (2-3)

Kentucky avoided any sort of disaster by going on the road and beating a bad Vandy team, but they came back home and lost yet another shootout, this time at the hands of Gonzaga. They gave up 89 points on 71 possessions and are now 124th in defensive efficiency. The silver lining at this point is they just aren’t fully healthy, even with DJ Wagner returning to the lineup he was just replaced on the injury report by starting PF Tre Mitchell, who would have helped big time in the battle inside that Gonzaga dominated. Kentucky has 3 7-footers that combined to play 40 minutes and they grabbed just 7 rebounds combined. It still hasn’t come together for Calipari and his young team, but if they can get Mitchell back soon and develop just a little bit defensively they could be dangerous. They’ll get a chance to rebound at home with Ole Miss coming to Rupp, but it’s right back to the grind after that as they head to Auburn. At minimum they need to split the week, as dropping to 16-9 and just 5-9 in Q1/2 would put them in real jeopardy. The Ole Miss game isn’t a must-win, but for momentum and confidence sake it might as well be. 

Teetering:

Texas A&M: 15-8 (6-4) — Q1: (5-4) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (19) Q1(A): (2-5)

The Aggies are getting hot at the right time as they’re now 5-1 in their last 6 with the most recent home win over Tennessee being the biggest of them all. The turnaround has been fueled by the improved play of Tyrece Radford, who a year ago was the key as a Robin to Wade Taylor’s Batman, but he’d really been struggling this year. The last 3 games in particular he’s been red hot, scoring 26, 22 and 27 respectively. For a team that struggles so badly offensively, having a 2nd guy that can create for himself offensively is a drastic improvement, and removes so much pressure from Taylor. It’s been a much better product over the past couple of weeks, and they will look to keep the train rolling as they head to Vandy this week and then have a massive one @ Alabama to finish off the week. Have to avoid disaster with Vandy, and then you get a huge opportunity to knock off a top-10 team. Big week for the Aggies to keep building momentum. 

Ole Miss: 18-5 (5-5) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (73) Q1(A): (1-3)

Since we last met the Rebels had just 1 game @ South Carolina, and while they battled hard they fell just short, losing by 3 on the road. That added yet another Q1 loss, and they now sit just 5-5 in Q1/2 games. While I still have them in, the margin between them and the group of teams battling on the cut line is shrinking as they all add more and more quality wins. The schedule, quite frankly, isn’t the most giving in terms of quality chances, but they do have 3 more home games that will give them shots at Q1/2 wins. Those don’t come this week though, as they head to Kentucky next and then host Mizzou in a can’t-lose game. Obviously, going to Rupp Arena and winning would be massive, but that’s asking a lot for a team that somehow ranks even worse than Kentucky does defensively. Huge over bet here btw. If they can just hold serve at 1-1 that’ll set up a stretch with better opportunities, just have to take care of business, and maybe steal one. 

Mississippi St: 16-8 (5-6) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (5-1) SOS (27) Q1(A): (2-4)

Mississippi St got back to their brand of basketball this week, holding both Georgia and Mizzou to well under 1 point per possession in 2 comfortable SEC wins. As we mentioned last week it was a tough stretch defensively for them, so turning that back around was a great sign for a team that is now 6-6 in Q1/2 games but being dragged down by the multiple Q3/4 losses. The 2 big wins over Tennessee and Auburn undo those losses in my opinion, but it still puts them in a much more precarious position than they would be if they had just taken care of business. All of that is to say they need to add more before they feel comfortable, but the schedule is not going to allow it before we meet again. They only get Arkansas at home this week in a can’t-lose game that won’t move the needle at all unless it’s negatively after a loss. That will set them up for a huge stretch run full of opportunities, just have to make it through unscathed. 

Florida: 16-7 (6-4) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (24) Q1(A): (2-4)

Florida is quietly cooking right now, as they’re now 5-1 in their last 6 and just picked up a massive win over Auburn at home in their lone game this week. Todd Golden deserves a ton of credit for what he’s been able to do with this team, bringing in a ton of transfers and creating one of the best offensive teams in the country. While they struggle defensively sometimes, the way they can score makes them a threat to beat anybody on any given night. They have just a 5-7 Q1/2 record though, with several of those coming in the last few weeks as they continue to rise up the seed list. I have them firmly in right now, others may not, but with that clean of a record and 2 big time wins now in the SEC I think they’re clearly a tournament worthy team. They still have time to build their case, or destroy it, and it starts this week with 2 very winnable games as they host LSU and then head to Georgia. While the Georgia game might not seem that important, it’s their final Q2 chance of the season, with only 3 Q1 games left on the schedule, 2 of which are also on the road. If they lose to Georgia the path could get much more difficult. 

---

–Mountain West–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Utah St: 18-4 (8-3) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS (82) Q1(A): (0-2)

I was hoping to see Utah St sweep the week this past week so I could lock them up, but they lost one at home to Nevada, picking up their 1st loss outside of Q1 on the season. While they bounced back to beat Boise St at home on Saturday, that loss pumps the brakes on things a little, although they still would need to meltdown to miss the tourney altogether. Teams are starting to sell out to stop Great Osobor inside, and that is forcing the guards to be shot makers, something they failed to do against Nevada. Fortunately against Boise St Mason Falslev and Darius Brown combined for 43 points to help get them back on track. They have a tricky one this week @ Wyoming, who isn’t very good but has upset both Nevada and Colorado St at home already. If they can survive that one it sets them up with a massive game @ Colorado St. That is their final Q1 road game, so next week we’re going to have a much clearer picture on whether or not we should be concerned about this Utah St team, or maybe even be able to lock them up. 

San Diego St: 16-6 (7-4) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (9) Q1(A): (2-4)

The Aztecs were oh so close on Friday night, pushing Nevada to OT in their building but came up short in the end. It was a physical game with a lot of foul trouble on both sides, and ultimately they couldn’t hit enough shots to take advantage of Nevada going just 19-32 from the FT line. Offense is still their issue but the way they defend should keep them in every game and make for a tough out in March, as we saw a year ago. Ultimately, the L keeps San Diego St out of lock territory for now, with just a 7-6 Q1/2 record they aren’t quite collapse proof just yet. The good news for them is they return home for 2 giant opportunities with both Colorado St and New Mexico coming in. If they are able to win both of those that will move them to 9-6 and into lock territory with just 5 games remaining. 

Colorado St: 17-5 (7-4) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS (62) Q1(A): (1-2)

Colorado St continues to handle their business at home, beating both Boise St and San Jose St this past week. They are right there on the cusp of locking, but with this difficult stretch upcoming I’m holding off just in case. 3 of their next 4 games are against 3 of the other top contenders in the Conference, with the 4th being @ UNLV which is also Q2. That gives them 4 Q1/2 chances, but that also means an 0-4 stretch is out there which would make this thing feel a whole lot different. They first head to San Diego St, which I would be shocked to see them win, but they then return home to face Utah St. Win that 2nd game and we can probably feel a little safer with this resumé, but this stretch is not something we can ignore, especially with trips to New Mexico and UNLV to follow. 

Teetering:

Boise St: 14-8 (7-2) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS (14) Q1(A): (2-3)

It was a tough week for Boise St as they dropped 2 difficult road games against Colorado St and Utah St. Their offensive struggles reared their ugly head again, and they’re now down to 7-7 in Q1/2. Thanks to their 5 Q1 wins I still have them pretty solidly in right now, but the next few weeks have become far more critical. They have 4 straight games vs the bottom dwellers of the conference, where they can’t add to their resumé but they can certainly put a giant hole in it. They still have home games with New Mexico and Nevada that can add to the resumé, plus a road game with San Diego St to finish it off, but they have to get to that stretch unscathed. It starts with home games vs Fresno St and then San Jose St. It’s all about avoiding disaster over the next few weeks for the Broncos. 

New Mexico: 18-5 (7-4) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS (116) Q1(A): (0-2)

The NET is clearly an imperfect science but there’s no greater example of that than New Mexico, who the algorithms believe is a top-25 team despite everything they’re showing them on the court. They’ve now lost back-to-back home games against Boise St and most recently UNLV. Sure they beat Wyoming on the road but they’re now just 4-4 in Q1/2 games and are now saddled with a Q3 loss that has drug them into the true bubble conversations. I have them as one of the last 4 teams in the field, with an ugly SOS and 0 Q1(A) wins I’m not sure they can hold on to that spot. It’s not going to get any easier for them, as they head to both Nevada and San Diego St this week, making it probable that we’re sitting here this time next week with the Lobos having lost 4 of 5 and spiraling. They could obviously surprise me by winning one of those on the road but forgive me for having little faith in them after the way they’ve been playing. 

Nevada: 18-5 (4-4) — Q1: (5-2) Q2: (0-2) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS (88) Q1(A): (1-2)

We said last week that this could be a massive week for the Wolfpack and that it was. They went on the road and beat Utah St to pick up their first Q1(A) win and then beat San Diego St in OT at home for their 5th overall Q1 win. They have a big 3 in Keenan Blackshear, Jarod Lucas and Nick Davidson that have been on fire of late and have now powered them into the field in my opinion. Their 5 Q1 wins are tied with Boise St for the most in the MW, but their 0-2 record in Q2 is the one thing weighing them down right now. They have a massive week again upcoming with more chances to solidify themselves as an at-large team, with New Mexico coming in and then a trip to UNLV. A 2-0 week improves them to 7-4 in Q1/2 games which would make me feel pretty confident in their chances so long as they avoid disaster down the stretch. After this week they only have 2 more shots at Q1 wins and they’re @ Boise St and Colorado St, 2 tough ones. Converting this week is imperative. 

---

–American–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Florida Atlantic: 19-5 (9-2) — Q1: (3-1) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (8-1) Q4: (5-1) SOS (109) Q1(A): (1-1)

FAU suffered another loss to a team outside of Q1, making that 4 such losses now. They bounced back from the OT loss to UAB by beating Wichita St in OT, but that unfortunately was a lot of hard work for just a Q3 win. The American offers them not much in terms of resumé building, and they continue to play down to the level of their opponent. Every game seems to come down to the wire with this group, and they’re going to be tested again as they travel to a white hot USF team that happens to also be leading the American regular season race right now. They first get to bounce back with Temple at home, but that game next Sunday could be one that bumps them into a more dangerous zone if they can’t pick up a W, as they would fall to 3-3 in Q2. They can only hold on to their non-conference wins for so long. 

Teetering: 

Memphis: 18-6 (7-4) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (6-1) SOS (114) Q1(A): (1-0)

The Tigers have seemingly gotten this train back on the tracks after going through a 4 game losing streak in January. They were able to beat Temple on the road and then Tulane at home, and while it wasn’t necessarily pretty that’s now 3 in a row to begin February as they look to battle back into the bubble mix. They have two massive opportunities this week as they hit the road to play N. Texas and SMU. These are two very well coached teams who play very hard, so if Memphis doesn’t show up they could easily lose both of these games and all but eliminate themselves from at-large contention. 2 wins though and all of a sudden they would be up to 7 Q1/2 wins and probably would find themselves on the right side of the bubble conversation. It’s a pivotal week for the Memphis Tigers, to say the least. 

---

–WCC–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track: 

Saint Mary’s: 19-6 (9-0) — Q1: (4-2) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (4-2) Q4: (7-0) SOS (94) Q1(A): (2-1)  

The Gaels are in a fantastic position as they continue to just rip through the WCC schedule, and with their 4 Q1 wins are just trying to avoid disaster the rest of the way. They blew out both Portland and Pacific and have shown no signs they’ll trip up down the stretch. They still have 2 games to keep an eye on, with both San Francisco and Gonzaga left at home. The only way I see them missing the tournament is if they lose both of those games, and even then they would have a decent at-large case. If they beat San Francisco and win out until the Gonzaga game I would think they are in either way, and Gonzaga would be playing for their lives. As it sits now they probably sit somewhere between a 7 and 9 seed and are going to point toward wins @ Gonzaga and Colorado St as well as a home win over New Mexico. It’s one game at a time though for them, and this week all they have on the docket is Pepperdine at home. 

Teetering:

Gonzaga: 17-6 (8-2) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS (92) Q1(A): (1-3)

Gonzaga has now given themselves a chance with the win @ Kentucky, finally picking up the Q1 win they’ve been searching for. They welcomed the track meet that Kentucky invited, and were able to dominate the paint behind Anton Watson and Graham Ike. They are still just 3-6 in Q1/2, so they are by no means in the field as it stands now, but they’ll have the rematch with Saint Mary’s circled as their chance to rack up another big time win. That one actually follows a road game with San Francisco as well, so their hopes of an at-large lie in sweeping those 2 games to end the season. What they have to avoid until that 2 game stretch is stubbing their toe along the way, and this weeks trip to Loyola Marymount as a follow up to that big win over Kentucky is the exact type of loss that can sink a resumé like this. After that is Pacific at home, who their backup 5 could probably beat, so they have to show up and take care of Loyola to keep this thing afloat. 

---

–A-10–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Dayton: 19-4 (9-2) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (78) Q1(A): (0-1)

Dayton finally showed some weakness as they lost to VCU, who was able to slow the game down and force the Dayton guards to try and beat them with jumpers. VCU neutralized Holmes inside and made the Flyers a jump shooting team, and they went 4-17 from 3. It’s hard to imagine holding a team to 49 points and losing, but they just could not score. The good news for them is it was a Q1 loss, and keeps their pretty 15-0 record outside of Q1 in tact. The resumé is good enough to absorb a loss or 2 down the stretch, but too many losses could still put them in jeopardy. If they can sweep this week we’re going to have to seriously consider locking them at 21-4 with just 5 remaining. We’ll hold off just to make sure they really do bounce back and beat Duquesne and Fordham at home. 

Teetering:

Richmond: 16-6 (8-1) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS (124) Q1(A): (0-0)

Richmond bounced back after the loss to VCU by whooping up on La Salle, but if we’re measuring them up against the rest of the bubble the situation is getting more dire as these major conference teams add more quality wins. If I’m being honest they need to run the table, as that would only add 2 more Q2 wins by beating VCU at home and George Mason on the road. That would make them 8-5 in Q1/2 but with really only 1 high quality win over Dayton. Of the mid-majors on this watch I think they’ll have one of the weaker cases to make, especially with 3 losses outside of Q1. We’re basically just waiting for them to lose in order to toss them to the side, but that chance that they finish 23-6 is still out there. That journey begins with UMass at home and then GW on the road.  

---

–Others–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

Indiana St: 21-3 (13-1) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (8-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS (124) Q1(A): (0-2)

I know I’m not the only one out there rooting for Indiana St to not slip up, as this is the perfect mid-major team to be in the tourney and go on a run. They are fun to watch and can fill it up, we’re all just hoping they can keep this resumé in tact. As I said last week, I think if they can run the table through the regular season then they can afford to lose in the MVC tourney and still get in at say 29-4 or something like that. They have one last Q2 chance this week as they head to Southern Illinois, a team they beat by 29 earlier in the year. They need to get past Illinois St at home first, but if they can push themselves to 5-3 in Q1/2 they’ll have just that much more of a case come Selection Sunday if they need to make it. 

Grand Canyon: 21-2 (12-1) — Q1: (1-1) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (11-0) SOS (250) Q1(A): (0-0)

It’s a little tougher to make the case for Grand Canyon but what they will continue to hang their hat on is that win over San Diego St. It will be very interesting to stack Grand Canyon up with the other bubble teams if they finish 29-2 and then lose somewhere in the conference tourney. I hope we don’t run into that scenario, and given how much of a gap there is in this Conference between them and #2 I don’t think we will. They have 0 opportunities on the schedule to improve the resumé, they just have to take care of business and hope they can punch their ticket, or else they will put the selection committee in quite the predicament. 

McNeese St: 17-3 (10-1) — Q1: (1-0) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (12-1) SOS (301) Q1(A): (0-0)

McNeese is in a similar spot as Grand Canyon, as they have 1 Q1 win and an awful SOS that would be a very hard sell if they can’t win their conference tourney. There is such a separation between them and the rest of the field though I just can’t see them losing in a win or go home tourney to any of these Southland teams. They’re well coached and driven by a high major talent in Shahada Wells. If they do run the table and then fall short in the Conference tourney, they’ll hope that wins over Michigan, VCU and UAB on the road can be a strong enough selling point. 

James Madison: 21-3 (9-3) — Q1: (1-0) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (4-2) Q4: (15-0) SOS (309) Q1(A): (1-0)

As I said last week, JMU is going to have to run the table and even then probably be hoping for a miracle if they fall in the conference tourney. The win over Sparty keeps them on the watch, but the 2 Q3 losses certainly are going to be an anchor. They have back-to-back home games this week and then will end the season with an absurd 4 games in a row on the road. Unfortunately I don’t think any of the remaining games will make it into the Q2 category, so at just 2-1 in Q1/2 they’ll rely on that Michigan St win to carry their resumé. They have the worst case in my opinion of any of these mid-major teams, but it will be wild to see a team that’s like 29-4 miss out on the dance, so if we face the scenario I’ll be curious to see how they stack up. 

Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, and exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in that first article. For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally, the flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. The beauty of this series is it is completely reactionary week to week, but over the course of the next 6 weeks or so we are going to encapsulate the journey some of these teams take entering March. Let’s dive in.

1. Houston: (20-3) Off (19) Def (1) – FLYER
   • Houston got their first taste of Allen Fieldhouse and it did not go well. They were outplayed from start to finish, as Kansas made their vaunted defense looking nothing of the sort. It’s very difficult to do that to Houston, but if you can neutralize their defense and also keep them off the boards, they can look pretty average. Houston struggles offensively in the half-court, and we have spoken at length about their struggles and reliance on Jamal Shead and that’s what we saw play out in that loss. They did bounce back and flex their muscle on Oklahoma St later in the week, and that’s what we’ve come to expect with Houston. They are never going to lose to a bad, team, virtually upset proof. What my concern with Houston is when they get later in the tournament and face more competent teams, especially offensively. We won’t know until we know, but for now they travel to a hungry Cincinnati team in what should be a wild environment. Would be a huge win for either team.
2. Purdue: (21-2) Off (1) Def (15) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Similar to Houston, Purdue has an obvious strength and has oscillated from impenetrable to flyer thanks to the other end. This week, we see them just good enough defensively to qualify thanks to their huge win @ Wisconsin. We know at this point who they are, the best offensive team in the Country, thanks to not only Zach Edey but the guard play of Braden Smith and Lance Jones. For the Boilers it’s seemingly going to come down to getting the March monkey off their back, as they look like a sure bet to at least get into the Sweet 16, but we’ve thought that before. I’m not sure there’s anything they can do to build my confidence, but they could certainly lose it if they lose to either IU or Minnesota at home. I expect them to handle business, especially against IU who beat them in Mackey a year ago.
3. UConn: (21-2) Off (3) Def (14) – IMPENETRABLE
   • UConn is the hottest team in the Country right now, winners of 11 straight, the longest active streak. That includes 4 road games in the Big East, but the most notable improvement from them has been on the defensive end. Just a few weeks ago we laid out why we thought the 42^nd ranking on D would improve with the return of Donovan Clingan, and that’s exactly what has transpired. They need him to anchor their defense, and since he’s been back they’ve now climbed into the top-15 and into the impenetrable category. They are also getting much better play from rising FR Stephon Caste, who missed some time earlier in the year but is beginning to hit his stride, evidenced by his 21 point performance @ St. John’s. Everything is coming together for Hurley and Co. once again, as they look to be the first repeat champs since Florida in ’06-’07. This week they get the bottom dwellers of the Conference in DePaul and Georgetown, so this train should just keep on rolling.
4. Auburn: (19-4) Off (10) Def (3) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Auburn is on fire and finally building a resume that can back up their outstanding metrics. They picked up 2 Q1 wins since we last met, and put up 90+ points in the wins over Ole Miss and Bama. They had struggled a bit offensively in the early stages of SEC play, but the front-court duo of Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams are dominating right now. In fact, Broome is playing like the 2^nd best big in the Country behind Edey, and has 21 blocks over the last 5 games. Dominates the boards, 20+ ppg and is an anchor for them defensively. While their guards aren’t going to wow anyone, that duo up front is tough to contend with. Speaking of guards though, Tre Donaldson has taken over the starting PG role and is playing much better. If he continues to improve and the front-court stays dominating I will really fall in love with this Auburn team. They have another tough week as they head to Florida on Saturday and then host a hot South Carolina team later in the week.
5. Arizona: (18-5) Off (6) Def (12) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Arizona is suffering from multiple personality disorder, as they have one side that can be the most dominant team in the Country, and another that can lose to anybody and often flip midgame. For example, they were down 11 at halftime at home vs Stanford, flipped a switch a outscored the Cardinal 48-26 in the 2^nd half to win by 11. Then, @ Utah they were actually up by 15 at half, and flipped the switch again as they fell asleep and blew that lead in the 2^nd half. They ended up winning in 3OT, but that inability to put together 40 minutes of good basketball is going to catch up to them at some point. They play with their food, they fall asleep, and ultimately just count on turning it on when they have to and escape with wins. It’s amazing that they can do that and still be top-12 in both offensive and defensive efficiencies, speaking to just how good they are when they turn it on. It’s tough to trust a team that doesn’t bring it every night, or even every half, but at the end of the day the data has them as one of the most complete teams in the Country. Their toughest Pac-12 test remaining comes on Saturday @ Colorado, we’ll see which version shows up, and for how long.  
6. Tennessee: (17-5) Off (13) Def (5) – IMPENETRABLE
   • I expressed some doubt in Tennessee last week after their home loss to South Carolina where they mustered up just 59 points. They bounced back in a major way, scoring 103 @ Kentucky and then 88 v Vandy. Once again, the play of Zakai Zeigler proved to be the major difference maker, as he combined for 43 points and 22 assists in there 2 wins this week. He had just 2 points and 3 assists vs South Carolina. The data speaks for itself. Dalton Knecht delivers every night, but he needs a Robin, and Ziegler has been the best bet in that role, so going forward I hope to see Ziegler stay aggressive. They’re obviously great defensively, it’s just all about the support around Knecht. They hit the road this week with trips to Texas A&M and Arkansas.
7. Alabama: (16-7) Off (2) Def (65) – VULNERABLE
   • It’s the same old song and dance for this Bama team, as if you’ve been reading along week by week you know exactly who this team is. They blew out Mississippi St thanks to lights out shooting, but then they went to Auburn and got handled thanks to their lack of defense. We’ve highlighted how they’re missing an interior presence that can block shots and rebound, but it’s worth repeating as it’s the glaring missing piece. They gave up 99 points and Auburn dominated the paint, forced turnovers and got whatever they wanted. I have zero trust in Bama, even if they do make it out of the first round alive they’re vulnerable to give up 90 and lose in every game they play. They have just one game this week and it’s @ LSU, who is not very good but they can score, so if Bama doesn’t show up they could easily lose that game. All of this criticism aside though they are 10-2 in their last 12 with the losses being @ Tennessee and @ Auburn so it’s not all negative.
8. UNC: (17-4) (23) (8) – FLYER
   • UNC had a massive win over Duke last weekend and evidently began feeling themselves just a bit too much, as they were asleep to start the game vs Clemson and dug themselves a hole they couldn’t get out of. That’s now losses in 2 of their last 3. I had concerns a week ago over Bacot’s lack of usage, maybe Hubert Davis is a reader of the column, or it was just an obvious thing I was pointing out, as they fed the big man repeatedly in both games as he racked up 20-point double-doubles in each game. The issue vs Clemson was the 1^st half defense, or the lack thereof. Cormac Ryan is also an issue, as he’s shooting a pathetic 29% from 3 and is shooting like he’s Jimmer. You want a guy to be confident but at some point you have to take a guy out when he’s struggling this badly. Hopefully he can either find a rhythm or they will give someone like Paxson Wojcik more run. We’ll see how they respond in a tough stretch, as they head to Miami and then Syracuse, two teams who desperately need big time wins.
9. Illinois: (17-5) (7) (32) – FLYER
   • The Illini have been hanging around this 9-10 range for a while now, and while they didn’t lose last week the home win over Nebraska in OT was a bit alarming. Nebraska is a decent team, but Illinois had a 10-point lead with 3:30 to go and blew it, forcing it to OT and squeaking it out. They fell asleep at the wheel thinking it was over. Hopefully that was a lesson learned, but it speaks to their defensive issues as they often get lazy and give up runs. That’s their key issue, and it’s going to prevent them from a deep run in March if they can’t turn it around. They’ll have 2 chances this week to improve, with a trip to Michigan St and then a home game vs Michigan.
10. Marquette: (17-5) (26) (10) – FLYER
    • Marquette has re-entered the top-10 chat after blowing our Georgetown and the teams above them slipping up. Marquette has been a bit of a disappointment this year as they had a ton of hype pre-season after returning almost everyone from a team that was a 2 seed a year ago. They’re basically the same team, with Tyler Kolek running the show and a frantic defensive strategy we’ve all come to expect with Shaka Smart. They’ve struggled offensively at times this year, as they really haven’t shot the ball as well from 3. What they’ve done is ask Kolek to shoulder more of the scoring load, which isn’t his nature as he likes to distribute but he’s been on a tear since they lost back-to-back games in early January where he had just 7 combined points. Him being aggressive has been massive for them during this 6-game winning streak, and I would imagine it only continues as they play St. John’s at home and then @ Butler in a revenge spot. I think they could be here to stay, but it was nice to finally switch things up as the top-10 had been pretty steady for the past few weeks.
11. BYU: (16-6) (8) (25) – FLYER        
12. Iowa St: (17-5) (48) (4) – VULNERABLE
13. Kansas: (18-5) (24) (18) – FLYER
14. Wisconsin: (16-7) (11) (31) – FLYER
15. Duke: (17-5) Off (9) Def (37) – FLYER
16. Baylor: (17-5) (4) (75) – VULNERABLE
17. Michigan St: (14-9) (35) (20) – FLYER
18. Creighton: (16-7) (21) (38) – FLYER
19. New Mexico: (19-4) (38) (24) – FLYER
20. San Diego St: (18-5) Off (45) Def (21) – FLYER

Welcome back to the 2nd edition of 2024’s official Bubble Watch, the place where we track and make sense of the most fantastically complex post-season selection process known to man. The bubble is of course about as murky as you could ask for, with teams like Virginia, Cincinnati and UCF making major moves with big time Q1 wins and teams like St. John’s, Miami and Kansas St stubbing their toe as they whiff on big opportunities. This extends all the way down to teams like Florida St and Indiana, who suffered mind-numbingly stupid losses this week that pulled the plug on what little at-large life they were clinging to. It’s only going to get tougher and tougher to split hairs between the teams right on the cut line, but with most teams having 8-10 games remaining on the season, everything is in front of you this time of year, with countless opportunities to separate yourself. 

Of course, we know March will be just as wild and unpredictable as ever, but what we can’t allow to be wild and unpredictable is Selection Sunday. So, I’m going to assign teams to 3 groups – Locks, On the Right Track and Teetering. Any team left out is not even on the radar, so maybe 4 groups for you sticklers out there. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.

“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.

“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 7-8 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.

“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, all the way to the bottom feeders who are holding on to a glimmer of at-large hope with much to do. 

For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), NET SOS and a final category being the Q1(A) record. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 68 teams on the first watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 2/5. Check out my current bracket projection here. 

Bubble Breakdown:

Total Bids: 68

1-bid conferences: 19

Locks: 8

Bids Left: 41

Bubble: 58

---

–ACC–

Locks: 

 

On the Right Track:

Duke: 16-5 (7-3) — Q1: (4-2) Q2: (1-3) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (66) Q1(A): (2-2) 

Duke is in a comfortable position right now, let’s not get it twisted, especially after notching a road win over bubble team VA Tech. What’s fresh in our minds though is watching them lose to rival UNC in a game where their only lead was 2-0 to start the game. They gave up 46 points and 23 rebounds to the UNC starting front-court Bacot and Ingram, pretty wild. This of course hits right at the major criticism for this Duke team, their lack of toughness and grit inside. They are very skilled and score with efficiency offensively, but drag them to the deep waters and you’ll start to see the cracks. Aside from the on-court criticisms, they also hold a 1-3 record in Q2 games, which by my estimation is tied with Seton Hall for the worst Q2 record on this watch. What’s keeping them in good shape of course are those non-conference wins over Baylor and Sparty, but all of this is to say this is not an open and shut case just yet. 5-5 in Q1/2 should not make you feel all that safe just yet. This week is just a try not to fall asleep at the wheel week, with Notre Dame and Boston College coming to Cameron Indoor they just have to win and move along. 

Teetering:

Clemson: 14-7 (4-6) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (22) Q1(A): (1-2) 

Clemson got off to a blazing start and entered ACC play 11-1, but since then it’s been pretty ugly, going 4-6 in a weak Conference and they are now clinging to their tournament lives. The most recent loss at home to Virginia was just another in a string of games that I thought the Tigers would win. They simply don’t defend and it’s coming back to haunt them, allowing an anemic Virginia offense to score 66 points on just 57 possessions. At the moment they are holding on to their strong non-conference, with wins over Boise St, Alabama, S. Carolina and TCU. That’s an impressive group of wins, but at some point they have to stop the bleeding, as they can only hold on to those for so long. It’s not getting any easier either, as this week they head to UNC and then to a desperate Syracuse team, so 0-2 is very much in the cards. If that happens they would likely be right on the cut line, so this is a huge week for them to bounce back. 

Virginia: 17-5 (8-3) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (96) Q1(A): (1-1) 

Leave it to Tony Bennett to get a team that is 151st in offensive efficiency to be in the midst of a 6 game win streak, with their most recent @ Clemson being a defining W on their resumé. The big pivot from Bennett has been the shift to Jordan Minor at the 5, who was playing maybe 10 mpg when they fell to 11-5. Since then he’s been in the starting lineup and has averaged nearly 10 ppg, which is a big number for a team that doesn’t score much. They’ve climbed to 5-4 in Q1/2 games, and while they have that ugly loss @ Notre Dame sitting out there, the schedule down the stretch offers 6 straight Q1/2 games for them to continue and bolster the resumé. They’re right on the borderline as it’s stands, but everything is in front of them with this schedule, and it starts with a home game vs Miami and then a trip to Florida St. 2-0 this week and they’ll surely be in the next time we meet. 

Miami (FL): 15-7 (6-5) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (6-2) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (7-1) SOS: (87) Q1(A): (0-1) 

Miami held serve this week so to speak, but what that means for them is remaining on the outside looking in. As we’ve discussed previously, they’ve put themselves in a tough spot with ugly losses to Louisville and Florida St at home, so they still need some elite wins to overcome that. They were without Matthew Cleveland for a couple of games, including their loss this week to NC State, but he returned in their win on Saturday vs VA Tech and had 15 and 13. He is important for them, and it’s a good thing he’s back and healthy as they head to white hot Virginia and then host UNC this week. That’s 2 Q1 chances for a team that is dying for a signature win that they simply can’t afford to miss out on, as falling to 1-5 in Q1 games with few opportunities remaining would be detrimental. 

Virginia Tech: 13-9 (5-6) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (21) Q1(A): (1-2)

The Hokies were fighting there way to the top of the bubble the last time we met, with opportunities to bolster their resumé incoming. They failed to take advantage, dropping a home game to Duke and then on the road to Miami. They really struggled to slow either team down, giving up 77 and 82 while getting smoked on the boards in both games as well. No defense and no rebounding, not exactly a recipe for success. Their at-large hopes are now on life support, and they’ll have a week to think about it as they have just one game on Saturday @ ND. That’s a can’t-lose game, as a loss there would pull the plug on whatever life they have left and remove them from the watch list. It’s as dire as it gets around here. 

N.C. State: 15-7 (7-4) — Q1: (0-5) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (63) Q1(A): (0-3)

The Wolfpack did exactly what they needed to do this week, going 2-0 at home and picking up an additional Q2 win in the process. While it didn’t deliver them the signature win that they desperately need, it kept them alive so when the opportunity comes knocking they can take advantage. For now, they remain fairly low on the watch list, but that clean 11-0 record in Q3/4 means a couple of Q1 wins and all of a sudden they’ll be right in the mix. This week is exactly what the doctor ordered, with a Q2 home game against Pitt and then a Q1 chance @ fellow bubble team Wake Forest. While a split of those games won’t vanquish their hopes, falling to 0-6 in Q1 is going to present quite the hole to dig themselves out of. 

Syracuse: 13-8 (5-6) — Q1: (1-6) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS: (16) Q1(A): (0-3)

A desperate situation has only worsened since we last met, as the Orange went 0-2 on the road, falling to Wake and BC and are now on the brink. They need near perfection the rest of the way, and forgive me but after a 29 point blowout to a bubble team I have little confidence that can be achieved. However, there remains a path, and it’s going to reveal itself in the next 10 days as they have 3 straight home games, 2 of which are Clemson and UNC. They first get a confidence booster with Louisville coming in, then things get real. They absolutely have to win these 3 home games, and at 16-8 would still be alive, especially with that home win over UNC to give them 2 Q1 wins and an overall 5-7 Q1/2 record. It still wouldn’t be enough to get them in, but it keeps that glimmer of hope still lit, which at this point is all they can get. 

Wake Forest: 14-7 (6-4) — Q1: (0-3) Q2: (5-4) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (78) Q1(A): (0-1)

The Demon Deacons had a shot at picking up their first Q1 W but lost @ Pitt this week as they let another chance slip away. They did bounce back to blow out Syracuse at home, but for a team that is desperate for big time wins they can’t afford to miss out on too many more chances. They are pretty far down the bubble at this point if we’re being honest, but there are still some chances out there that if they can capitalize on could push them close. It’s dire, and with a trip to a dangerous Georgia Tech team this week, we’re now asking a team that’s 1-4 in ACC road games to beat a Tech team that has knocked off Duke and UNC at home. However, they’re 124th in the NET for a reason, so this is one that you absolutely cannot lose if you’re Wake and want to have any shot at an at-large. After that they get N.C. State at home so a 2-0 week would also bump them to 7-4 in Q2 and start to breathe some life into this resumé with 8 to play. 

---

–Big Ten–

Locks:

On the Right Track:

Wisconsin: 16-6 (8-3) — Q1: (6-5) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (4) Q1(A): (2-3) 

Well the exact thing I was worried about, and what kept me from locking up Wisconsin, played out this past week as they lost both @ Nebraska and at home vs Purdue. Now, this by no means puts them at any risk of missing the tourney as it stands, but there is no doubt a little bit of uneasiness for Badger fans has set in after watching them finish last season just 4-12 down the stretch after starting 11-2. I’m not saying they’re destined to fall apart again, I think they’re much better this year, but with 2 Big Ten road games up this week it could get awfully dicey if they don’t get things turned around. It will start defensively, as they gave up 75 and 80 in the 2 losses this past week, something Greg Gard will certainly be unhappy with. The good news is the games are against Michigan and Rutgers, and while it’s never easy to win on the road in college basketball, those are 2 very winnable games. Win both and we’ll have nothing to fear with this year’s Badgers. 

Illinois: 17-5 (8-3) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (48) Q1(A): (1-3)

Illinois handled their business this week, picking up a win @ Ohio St that is Q1 as of now but with the Buckeyes in free fall may quickly fall to Q2. They then beat a fiery Nebraska team at home in OT to keep the train rolling. They can sometimes get cute and play with their food, but as a whole this Illini team is supremely talented and is probably the closest team to locking that we have on the watch. Their biggest knock is the lack of elite wins, with just the 1 Q1(A) victory over FAU on a neutral court, which would fall off if FAU falls just 1 spot. That lack of wins keeps them from lock territory, as a disastrous end to the season could still see them with an ugly Q1 record that might not get them in. I expect them to pick up some quality wins, but stranger things have happened. They have some time off before heading to East Lansing in a massive game against Sparty on Saturday. Win that and we would feel much better about locking. 

Northwestern: 15-7 (6-5) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-1) SOS: (23) Q1(A): (2-3)

Perhaps the Wildcats aren’t who I thought they were, as I was confident last week they would lose to Purdue and then bounce back against Minnesota. They dropped both games, albeit both in OT, it’s still an 0-2 week that now drops them to 6-6 in Q1/2 games. They have an elite trio of guards led by Boo Buie, but they struggle so bad on the glass and in the paint on both ends. That weakness haunted them in both losses, as they shot a ridiculous 25-50 from 3 and still lost both games. That’s hard to do. The good news is they still have those 4 great wins and have 2 home games vs Nebraska and Penn St this week, with the former being a Q2 opportunity. A 2-0 week keep this group right on track, but another loss outside of Q1 would start to sound some alarms. Time for this veteran group to lock in and take care of business. 

Teetering: 

Nebraska: 16-7 (6-6) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (64) Q1(A): (2-2)

Nebraska took another giant step forward in their quest to get back to the tourney for the first time since 2014 with the massive home win vs Wisconsin. They then went to Illinois and gave a very good Illini team everything they could handle, but ultimately fell in OT. This was the toughest 2 game stretch on their schedule and they pulled out a W, so they have to be very proud of that. They are an electric team to watch, with one of the most fascinating players in the Country Keisei Tominaga at the center of it all. The lefty from Japan is a ton of fun to watch, if he’s not raining threes on your team, and behind him and transfers Brice Williams and Rienk Mask HC Fred Hoiberg has a legit squad on his hands. They are now below .500 in Q1/2 games, but the 6 wins is a strong number, especially with 2 of them being over Purdue and Wisconsin. They should feel decently safe as of now, and the schedule softens a bit down the stretch. It doesn’t right away though, as they head to Northwestern next but then get a home game vs Michigan after that. Split that and they’re still right on track, although at 6-8 in Q1/2 it’s not a sure thing by any means as they won’t be able to afford bad losses down the stretch. 

Michigan St:  14-8 (6-5) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (11) Q1(A): (1-5) 

Sparty did what they had to do this week to stay afloat, beating up on Michigan and then grinding out a tough one vs Maryland. They’re now just 5-8 in Q1/2 games though, so while the computers are telling us this is a top-25 team, they don’t select the tournament field. While that might anger State fans and analytic lovers alike, at some point with 30+ games and a full Big Ten slate you have to prove on the court what the numbers say. Close losses are losses nonetheless, and it’s high time Michigan St starts picking up some big time wins to back up their metrics. Wouldn’t you know, this week offers just that, with a trip to Minnesota in a Q2 game and then they host Illinois, their 1 and only home Q1 chance remaining. This is a pivotal week in the season for this team, as going 2-0 would make them feel a whole lot more comfy, especially with that big home win over the Illini. Can’t fall into the trap at Minnesota though. 1 game at a time for Izzo and co. 

Maryland: 13-9 (5-6) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (2-2) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (54) Q1(A): (1-2)

The Terps didn’t have much of a chance to improve their situation this week, with only a trip to East Lansing on the books it was going to take a Herculean effort to win the week. They are still alive in my book, albeit as low as you can be on the watch, the path is there. I think there’s a realistic shot they finish the season 8-1, and while that may be far fetched even a 7-2 finish would put them 20-11 with a much better looking Q1/2 record. For now, they’re just 4-7 with 2 bad losses, but have a chance this week at notching another as they head to Columbus to take on a spiraling Ohio St team. Prior to that they host Rutgers in what could possibly be the worst showing of offense the college basketball world will see all season. It’s a must-win followed by basically a must-win, as anything short of 15-9 next week would probably see their hopes vanquish. 

---

–Big 12–

Locks: 

On the Right Track:

Baylor: 15-5 (5-3) — Q1: (6-3) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (18) Q1(A): (3-3)

Baylor was able to right the ship this week, ending their 3 game skid winning a tough one @ UCF and then coming home and knocking off Iowa St. That added 2 Q1 wins to this resumé and helped to remove any feelings of an imminent collapse that we may have had last week. This is the best 3-point shooting team in the Country, up to nearly 42% as a team, and they used that to put up 70+ on two top-10 defenses this week. While I generally have bad feelings about their lack of defense, I’m only here to debate their at-large hopes, which are nearly secured at this point as they have the most Q1 wins of any team that isn’t locked. This week they host Texas Tech and then head to Kansas in a massive matchup with Gameday in attendance. Realistically, 3 of their next 4 are very winnable, and getting that done would likely end our weekly Baylor discussions and send them to the Lock camp. 

Iowa St: 16-5 (5-3) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (49) Q1(A): (3-3)

A .01 second difference is all it took for the Cyclones to fall short this week, losing @ Baylor with the game winner barely not getting off in time. It was a great game and a clear showing that this Iowa St team is pretty damn good. Now, they have major wins over Kansas and Houston, but that 5-5 Q1/2 record is going to need added to, and they’re a couple more losses in a row from falling hard and fast down the seed list. The good news of course is this is the Big 12, the land of opportunity I like to call it, so their next 2 games are of course Q1 chances. They first head to Austin to play a Texas team that is really rounding into form and then go back to Hilton to take on TCU. If they split the week they’d hold serve for the most part, but a sweep would get them dangerously close to lock territory. 

BYU: 16-5 (4-4) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (52) Q1(A): (1-4)

The Cougars had a pretty quiet week, which was a very good thing as their only game was @ West Virginia and the only thing that would’ve made that notable was an upset loss. They took care of business, but were once again without a key member, this time big man Aly Khalifa. He missed the game due to the flu, so he should be back soon, but we’ve not seen this BYU team play at full strength in some time. Fous Traore was back in the starting lineup though, putting up 24 and 9 which was a great sign for them heading forward. Hopefully they can get healthy for their next one as they head to an up and down Oklahoma team that can look great at times and at other times pretty bad. That’s a winnable game, as is the next one at home vs K-State. If they can go 2-0 they’d feel a whole lot more comfortable with a couple of easy ones on deck. 

Oklahoma: 16-6 (4-5) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (55) Q1(A): (2-3)

Oklahoma has to be the most inconsistent team in the Country, as they went on the road and beat K-State by 22 points and then followed that up with an 11 point loss @ UCF. They gave up 85 points to Texas Tech last week and then only gave up 53 to K-State. Then they allowed UCF, one of the worst offensive teams in high major basketball, to score 74. I have no idea how good this Oklahoma team is. The metrics say top-25 to top-30 good, but it looks more like they show up one night top-15 good and another sub-50. Either way, they’re sitting at 6-6 in Q1/2 which is a good enough spot right now to be solidly in, but certainly not safe without some more wins. They have a huge opportunity this week with BYU coming to Norman, so if the good version of this Sooner group shows up they could get another elite win on the resumé. That one is followed by in-state rival Oklahoma St coming in, so a 2-0 week would be absolutely massive to create some separation from them and the true bubble.  

Teetering:

Texas Tech: 16-5 (5-3) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (0-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (69) Q1(A): (3-2)

Well, that was quite the pivot for Texas Tech, who a week ago was sitting with 5 Q1/2 wins and unbelievable momentum. They dropped 2 games this week, @ TCU and then at home to Cincy in a baffling one. What added insult to injury is they had 2 Q2 wins fall into Q3 thanks to the fall of both Michigan and K-State. They’re now just 3-5 in Q1/2 games, and while it’s clearly not a perfect science, the resumé picture they bring to the table right now is not nearly as pretty as it was a week ago. What they do have in their favor is those 3 Q1(A) wins, which can help to make up for the lack of total quality wins, but can’t completely keep you afloat. Simply put, they need more. This week they’re heading to Baylor and then host UCF, which gives them both a Q1 and Q2 opportunity. It’s the right Conference to be in if you want the most volume of opportunity, but boy it can get real ugly if you start piling up losses. 

Texas: 15-7 (4-5) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (27) Q1(A): (4-4)

I think the Longhorns are starting to turn a corner, and while they didn’t ultimately beat Houston this past week, pushing them to the brink in OT was very impressive and they bounced back in an 11 point win @ TCU. Dylan Disu’s return from injury and into the starting lineup looks like the key shift, and they’ve now learned to play together in this new lineup and he is on fire. He’s shooting over 50% from 3 along with being a fantastic rebounder which has been a huge addition to this team. They now hold a whopping 4 Q1(A) wins and get a shot at another one this week with Iowa St coming to Austin. If they can convert that and then take care of West Virginia then this time next week they will be sitting pretty with just 7 to go. Rodney Terry deserves credit, as a few weeks ago they were in a dire spot and he has shifted things around, with Chendall Weaver getting more run to help defensively and Disu getting more and more looks offensively, he has the Longhorns looking much improved as we enter February. 

TCU: 16-6 (5-4) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (56) Q1(A): (2-3)

TCU had a huge opportunity this week to make things a little comfier with 2 home games vs Tech and Texas, but came up short vs the Longhorns after winning the first. That keeps them below .500 in Q1/2 at 4-6, which frankly isn’t that good but it’s ballooned by the 2 Q1(A) wins over Houston and @ Baylor. Those are 2 massive wins, but eventually they’ll have to scratch and claw to get a few more of those high quality wins. For now, they’re barely in the field and they have a week off before heading to Iowa St in a very difficult place to play. I still don’t know what to make of this team, but one thing we know about the Big 12 is only the strong survive, so we’ll find out in due time if they are good or not. Next time we meet they’ll likely be sitting just 4-7 in Q1/2, so they’ll be right in the bubble crosshairs entering mid-February. 

Cincinnati: 15-7 (4-5) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (51) Q1(A): (2-3)

I’m still baffled by this Cincy team, as they go to West Virginia and lose a disgusting game which I thought could have buried them, but then bounce right back to win @ Texas Tech. You could chalk up the loss to a bad night of shooting, as they shot just 9-32, and there was a concerted effort to take fewer threes and get to the pain in the following game. That change helped them be more efficient offensively and pick up a massive win that keeps them very much alive. Thanks to that Q3 loss out there now though I have them the first team out. I wouldn’t argue if you had them in at this point, but in early February it’s more about the general positioning and being right on the cut line means you need to win big time games. Good news for them is Houston comes knocking on Saturday in what amounts to a potential season defining win. 

UCF: 13-8 (4-5) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-1) SOS: (46) Q1(A): (2-4)

UCF missed a golden opportunity losing to Baylor at home, but they did keep their at-large hopes alive by beating Oklahoma on Saturday. One of the keys for this team is getting to the FT line, as they really struggle to score the basketball, ranking just 188th in offensive efficiency. In their prior 2 wins they’ve attempted a total of 57 FT’s, compared to just 16 in their prior 2 losses. When they’re turning the ball over and settling for jumpers they struggle mightily to score, but when they’re in attack mode as they were vs Oklahoma good things happen. They’re always going to defend, it’s all about finding ways to score for this group. Resumé wise they’re still a ways away, with just a 4-7 Q1/2 record and that nasty Q4 loss out there they have lots of work to do. They have some time off before heading to Lubbock on Saturday to face a reeling Texas Tech team. A loss there isn’t going to kill them, as I’m eyeing a 6 game stretch in the coming weeks where they can go on a major run. Until then I see how that plays out I’ll hold on to this scrappy UCF team. 

Kansas St: 14-8 (4-5) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (4-4) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (61) Q1(A): (1-3)

Kansas St is in free fall, there’s really no other way to put it, as they are in the midst of a 4 game losing streak with the most recent being a road loss to lowly Oklahoma St. There’s really not much to feel good about with this team, but there’s one way they can turn this ship around and save their season, beat Kansas. The Jayhawks come in off a massive win over Houston in a classic let down spot that the Wildcats have to be ready to take advantage of Monday night. If they can knock off their rival and pick up a 2nd Q1 win they’ll get right back in the bubble mix. If not, we might as well consider this bubble burst, as they travel to BYU next and that would likely mean falling to 14-10 and just 5-9 in Q1/2 games. While there are still plenty of chances out there, it’s hard to imagine a team that’s on what would be a 6 game losing streak would be able to turn it around and start knocking off top-30 teams in succession. This is a season defining game Monday night for K-State. Let’s see if they show up. 

---

–Big East–

Locks:

   

On the Right Track:

Creighton: 16-6 (7-4) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (38) Q1(A): (1-2)

Woah nelly, Creighton just lost a stunning one at home to Butler in a shootout that may have exposed just how much the lack of depth is hurting this Creighton team. Let’s lay it out, because if you don’t already know this team has a big 4 that it leans on almost entirely, which was displayed as dramatically as possible on Friday night. The foursome of Ashworth, Alexander, Scheierman and Kalkbrenner combined for 94 of their 98 points. They played 158 out of a possible 160 minutes. They lost, giving up 99. I know Butler shot the lights out and played an incredible game, but you can’t tell me the minutes played isn’t starting to wear on this group. They have to play soft defensively to avoid foul trouble, and just generally have to hold some effort back to have something left in the tank down the stretch. Despite all of that, they had 2 open Alexander 3’s to take the lead in the dying moments and he left them short. Tired legs will affect you on both ends. I fear this Creighton team may hit a wall, and while they’re sitting in a good position record and resumé wise, they still have 7 Q1 games in the homestretch. On the right track yes, but there’s still time for this thing to unravel if they aren’t careful. The gauntlet continues this coming week with trips to Providence and Xavier on deck, so it could get dicey for these Bluejays.  

Teetering:

Butler: 14-7 (6-5) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (13) Q1(A): (2-3)

Butler is on quite a roll right now, winners of 4 in a row, none bigger than their shocking upset @ Creighton on Friday night. It was a shootout and one that pushed them from out of the field to into the field by my estimation, giving them a 2nd elite win and 3rd overall Q1 W. More impressive is the fact they did it without starting PG Posh Alexander, putting on an offensive clinic despite his absence, turning it over just 5 times and going 13-22 from 3. It’s a hodgepodge of transfers that seem to be gelling better and better, and while they don’t play defense, their offensive ability behind guys like DJ Davis and Jahmyl Telfort makes them a really fun watch and has them on the verge of the program’s first tourney berth since 2018. It’s a tough road ahead in the Big East though, with 7 of their final 8 being Q1/2 games. They have to go to UConn and then host Providence this week, the latter being one of those Q2 chances you just have to capitalize on if you want to be in the field. An 0-2 week could undo the work they just did on Friday night, so that home tilt next Saturday will be absolutely massive. 

St. John’s: 13-9 (5-6) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (5) Q1(A): (0-5)

St. John’s has now lost 5 out of 6 and are really struggling through the difficult Big East Schedule. On the plus side all of those games were Q1 losses, but they’ve gone from 7-3 in Q1/2 to now just 7-8. We could be looking at a monumental collapse here if they can’t stop the bleeding, as they’ve gone from pretty solidly in to the last 4 byes for me. They get a chance to reset with DePaul coming to the Garden, but after that it ramps right back up with a trip to Marquette. That home game vs UConn was such a massive opportunity to stave off any shot at missing the dance, but now you’re sitting 0-5 in Q1(A) games and you have that Q3 loss sitting out there. It’s a resumé that’s getting uglier and uglier and if they only win their home games the rest of the year they’ll be sitting just 3-10 in Q1. Not going to be good enough. It’s surprising, but Pitino and this St. John’s team are on the ropes right now. 

Seton Hall: 14-8 (7-4) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (1-3) Q3: (2-2) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (36) Q1(A): (2-2)

The Pirates were able to end their 3 game skid thanks to DePaul showing up on the schedule. It’s always nice to take out some frustration on the punching bag of the league, however, it doesn’t do much in terms of boosting the resumé, which at the moment is looking kind of rough. While they have some massive wins over Marquette and UConn, they have a worse record in Q2/3 than they do in Q1. I would sentence them to Dayton if it ended today, so they’re right there on the cut line with 9 games remaining. The good news is Kadary Richmond returned in the DePaul game, albeit off the bench, it still is encouraging to see him back in action. They get another confidence builder with Georgetown coming in and then head to a desperate Villanova team on Saturday. Must-win followed by a massive opportunity. They don’t have to beat Villanova, but man it would go a long way toward making this feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. 

Providence: 14-8 (5-6) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (39) Q1(A): (2-3)

We knew this was going to be a rough week for this Providence group, with trips to UConn and Villanova it was almost assuredly going to be an 0-2 week. That’s exactly what happened and now they’re right on the cut line, as I have them playing in Dayton and others could easily have them out. It’s close, but it’s hard to see them going on a run as they struggle to score so much more without star Bryce Hopkins. They are elite defensively, but without him as a go-to scorer what was already a bad offensive team has gotten that much worse. They have a massive opportunity to make me eat my words this week though with Creighton coming in. If they can win that and rack up a 4th Q1 win that will go a long way in their search for an at-large bid, but a loss would be detrimental, especially with a trip to a white hot Butler on deck. Circle that game Wednesday night, season could be on the line for the Friars. 

Villanova: 12-10 (5-6) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (2-3) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (8) Q1(A): (2-3)

After losing to Marquette to make it 5 L’s in a row Villanova was able to finally end their skid by beating Providence at home. It’s still just a 2-6 stretch that has put them on the outside looking in, and while we discussed the lack of results in spite of all of the talent last week it bears repeating. They brought in All-Conference players Tyler Burton and TJ Bamba to go with a strong returning cast and this is all they can muster? I’m not sure how long Neptune is going to be around, because in his 2 years here it has been a strong departure from what we were used to under Jay Wright. They’re now on track to miss back-to-back NCAA tourney’s for the first time since Wright’s first breakthrough bid with the team in ’05. The schedule isn’t going to let up either, as they head to Xavier who is 5-2 in their last 7 and then host a gritty Seton Hall team. 0-2 and it’s curtains for Nova, but even a split of those 2 games is going to keep them on the outside looking in so it’s starting to feel like must-win time for this group. 

---

–Pac-12–

Locks: 

On the Right Track:

Utah: 15-7 (6-5) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (20) Q1(A): (2-3)

The Utes picked up another solid win at home, handling Colorado in their lone game since we last met. They’re a clear tournament quality team in my opinion just watching, and thanks to their depth continue to win despite some injuries throughout the season. The most recent revelation is transfer Deivon Smith, who was injured to start the year and is now in the starting lineup in place of injured Rollie Worster. He had 17/11/9 the other night, falling just 1 assist short of a triple double and likely would’ve had it if the rest of the team shot just a little better from 3. More good news is 7-footer Lawson Lovering was back after missing 4 games and had 9 points and 8 boards off the bench. Resumé wise the Utes are now 7-7 in Q1/Q2 games, which is good enough for them to feel safe as of now, and they have their last Q1 chance for a while in a massive one vs Arizona on Thursday night. Win that and there won’t be much to worry about. 

Teetering:

Washington St: 16-6 (7-4) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS (74) Q1(A): (1-2)

I talked about the surprise of Wazzu a week ago, but man Kyle Smith deserves a ton of credit for what he’s done with the Cougars. They went on the road and knocked off Washington in OT, with rising star FR Myles Rice leading the way with 18/5/5. They are now 6-1 in their last 7, beating Arizona/Utah/Colorado in the process and should be unanimously in the field right now at 7-5 in Q1/2 games. It’s as unexpected a roster as you’ll find, with guys from all over the world including Australia, Nigeria, Macedonia and France, as HC Smith has done an incredible job building through the international pool of talent. They continue to improve their resumé but now enter a stretch where they need to handle business. Their next 4 include 3 games that would be devastating to lose, starting with a trip to lowly Oregon St. Win that and then a loss @ Oregon won’t be too bad, especially if they come back home and sweep Cal and Stanford. 3-1 over the next 4, that’s what we’re looking for here for Wazzu. 

Oregon:  15-7 (7-4) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS (71) Q1(A): (1-4)

We spoke last week about the Duck’s 8 game stretch they were entering and my belief was they needed to go at least 7-1. Well, they’re now 1-1 dropping a game @ UCLA after going to USC and winning. They need to reel off 6 in a row now as the chances to bolster the resumé are all coming in their final 3 games, so they just need to avoid disaster the rest of the month. They are still trying to get healthy, now down Keeshawn Barthelemy and Nate Bittle who had returned but missed this weeks games due to illness. Bittle should be back to rejoin Dante in the frontcourt, and they need those 2 healthy for this run as they welcome both Washington and Washington St to Eugene this week. While those aren’t Q1 chances, they are Q2 and give the Ducks a chance to improve that Q1/2 record from 4-6 to 6-6 which is imperative at this stage. Huge week for Oregon to stay alive. 

Colorado: 15-7 (6-5) — Q1: (1-4) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (72) Q1(A): (0-4)

The Buffs lost a tough one @ Utah and now all eyes are on this week, as they have to get through Arizona St and then welcome Arizona to Boulder. That game on Saturday night is where all of their at-large hopes lie right now as they have just 1 Q1 W, which is just simply not enough. It’s their final Q1 chance until March 7 when they head to Oregon, not one you want to count on winning. They were once again without FR Cody Williams Saturday, who apparently took an elbow to the face in practice forcing him out. Ideally he will be back, they’ll take care of Arizona St and then they just have to find a way to beat Arizona. Do that and they’re up to 6-7 in Q1/2 with a massive win over a top-10 team on the resumé. That will have them right on the doorstep, if not in, and with very winnable games the rest of the way it could be the start of a huge run for a team I think is talented enough to pull it off. 

---

–SEC–

Locks: 

On the Right Track:

South Carolina: 19-3 (7-2) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (9-0) SOS (88) Q1(A): (1-2)

It’s high time we start respecting these Gamecocks, as they just find ways to win and just had one of the most impressive weeks you can have. They went into Knoxville and beat Tennessee, holding them to just 59 points, and then went to Georgia and avenged 1 of their 2 SEC losses. They now hold wins over both Kentucky and Tennessee and are 7-2 in Q1/2 games, that’s very impressive. While the SOS is not strong just yet, it’s going to keep climbing as they rip through SEC play, with 5 more Q1 games on the schedule with a couple more Q2 as well. Nobody saw this type of success coming from this team, with a hodgepodge of transfers and returnees alike, it’s amazing how fluidly they play offensively. The ball moves, no 1-on-1 basketball, evidenced by their 25 assists on 29 made shots vs Georgia and they’re now top-20 in assists per made FG. Unbelievable for a team that entered the season with so much turnover. Credit to these guards and HC Lamont Paris. This week they get Ole Miss and Vandy at home. Go 2-0 in those games are we’re seriously going to be thinking about locking South Carolina at 21-3 and 8-2 in Q1/2 games.

Alabama: 16-6 (8-1) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (6) Q1(A): (1-4)

The Tide did exactly what they needed to do this week, going to Georgia and picking up a road win and then coming home and blowing out Mississippi St. It was a very impressive week in which they picked up 2 Q2 wins and keep themselves headed in the right direction. They’re now 10-1 in their last 11 games after starting just 6-5, and they’re absolutely loved by the computers at this stage, ranking top-10 regardless of where you look. They’re on fire but have their toughest game left on the schedule up next as they head to rival Auburn in a rematch that will be must-watch television. They won by 4 at home so you know both the Auburn players and crowd will be licking their chops as the Tide come in on Wednesday night. A loss isn’t going to hurt them all that much, but what’s more important is that they bounce back and beat LSU on the road on Saturday. An 0-2 week would leave them just 7-8 in Q1/2 games which wouldn’t put them in trouble but would make picking up a few more quality wins very important. 

Auburn: 18-4 (7-2) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (85) Q1(A): (0-2)

Auburn took another step toward proving they are as good as the computers are telling us, finally picking up a Q1 win beating Ole Miss on the road after dismantling Vandy at home. It was a great week and they’ll be eager for even more as rival Bama comes to town in a chance to avenge their loss just 2 weeks ago in Tuscaloosa. The Ole Miss win was made more impressive by the fact they were down 9 at halftime, giving up 44 1st half points. They locked down defensively, allowing just 33 in the second half and outscored the Rebels 56-33. Very impressive on both ends, led by All-Conference center Johni Broome who is having a hell of a year. He alongside Jaylin Williams dominated the paint, accounting for 31 points and 14 boards. That’s who Auburn is, a tough defensive team that looks to dominate the glass and score inside. It’s a great recipe for success, and they’ll look to continue this run against Bama and then on the road vs Florida. A tough week but chances to get to lock territory if they can go 2-0. 

Kentucky: 15-6 (5-4) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS (63) Q1(A): (2-3)

This Kentucky team is a little bit of a mess right now as they just lost 2 home games to Florida and Tennessee despite scoring over 90 points in each game. They are a team full of supremely talented scorers but none of them have any clue how to play defense. They can’t keep the ball in front, overplay and get out of position and generally just don’t move with urgency on that end. The result is clean looks and offensive rebounds for the other team which undoes everything they do well on the offensive end. The silver lining is they were without starting PG DJ Wagner in both losses, but I’m not convinced he is going to add much defensively. They’re now just 5-5 in Q1/2 games with a bad loss to UNC Wilmington out there as well, so while we all can see how talented they are and how much potential they have, it needs to start coming together quickly for Calipari. They have a bit of a reprieve as they head to Vandy midweek, but it’s right back to good teams who are desperate for a win as they host Gonzaga on Saturday. The Zags are down this year but they are also desperate for a big win. Things could get ugly if they slip up this week, especially against Vandy. 

Teetering:

Ole Miss: 18-4 (5-4) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (83) Q1(A): (0-3)

Not a lot of people believed in this roster heading into the season, but with Chris Beard at the helm it was foolish to think they wouldn’t be competing for a tourney berth. Beard came in and immediately hit the portal, bringing guys like Allen Flannigan, Jaylen Murray, Brandon Murray, and Moussa Cisse to surround returners Brakefield and Murrell. This man just knows how to coach ball, and while they haven’t quite had the opportunity on their schedule to prove they are as good as their record says they are, it’s coming. They have just 2 Q1 wins to this point, but the most recent win @ Texas A&M proved they belong in the field and as it stands they are firmly in that 8-9 seed range. This week the opportunities come knocking, with both Mississippi St and Auburn coming to Oxford, it’s high time to start cashing in. 

Mississippi St: 14-8 (3-6) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-1) SOS (16) Q1(A): (2-5)

Well Mississippi St is sliding further and further down the seed list as they keep racking up road losses. While both of their losses this week were Q1, it still is a bit concerning as this team’s identity had been strong defense and toughness, but they gave up 86 and 99 in their two losses. That will have to correct itself, and they finally have a softening of the schedule with which they can build some momentum, with 3 of the next 4 at home and the road game being @ Mizzou. They should win 4 straight pretty comfortably, with only the Ole Miss rematch falling in Q2 it’s not going to help much but a loss would definitely hurt. They have to get back to defending or else this train may be headed off the tracks, we’ll see how it goes. 

Texas A&M: 13-8 (4-4) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (1-2) Q4: (5-0) SOS (19) Q1(A): (2-5)

A&M survived at home vs Florida in a game they had to have, eeking out just a 1 point win with Florida having multiple attempts to take the lead before the buzzer. This team is one of the worst shooting teams in the Country, but they survive by being the best offensive rebounding team there is. What they miss is their post presence Julius Marble, who has been out all year due to some sort of team violation. There’s no real sign he will come back, but man that would alleviate some pressure that’s on these guards to try and make plays offensively. Wade Taylor and Tyrese Radford are good players, but everything is on them to create offense and the result is they’re 350th in effective FG%. They’re now 7-6 in Q1/2 games, but that ugly 1-2 record in Q3 is weighing them down and means they still need to add more quality wins to get in. They have a huge week ahead, with a dangerous game @ Mizzou that they can’t afford to lose and then a gigantic opportunity with Tennessee coming to College Station. If they can go 2-0 this week, knocking off Tennessee, they’ll feel create much needed separation from the bubble cut line. 

Florida: 15-7 (5-4) — Q1: (1-7) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (35) Q1(A): (1-2)

Last week we said the Gators were going to have to pick up a road win or 2 down the stretch if they wanted to have a chance, and that’s just what they did. They went to Rupp Arena and knocked off Kentucky to pick up their 1st Q1 W, and while they fell to A&M after that it’s still a very successful week to pick up that big of a win. The resumé is still pretty spotless, they just need to find a way to rack up a few more quality wins and they will be on track to get in the dance. They have some time off and then a massive chance with Auburn coming to the Swamp, with a chance to pick up their 2nd Q1 win and really put themselves in a good position to get in, especially if they can hold serve until late February and knock off Bama at home as well. The opportunities are there for the Gators, it’s all about taking advantage. 

---

–Mountain West–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Utah St: 17-3 (7-2) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS (80) Q1(A): (1-2)

The Aggies split the week, handling their business at home vs San Jose St and then losing @ San Diego St. It’s nothing to hang your head about but it does bring them back even with Boise St in the Conference standings and drops them to just 2-3 in Q1. Overall, the 5-0 Q2 record brings them to 7-3 in Q1/2 which is very strong, so they’re in no danger as it stands, but could still use some quality wins to make me feel like we can lock this one up. I spoke last week about the coaching job Sprinkle has done, but it deserves reiterating as this team was a complete rebuild and is now in prime position to win the Mountain West. They have 4 of the other 5 contenders left at home, with only Colorado St on the road. They could realistically finish the season 8-1 and be sitting 25-4 when it’s all said and done. That would be an incredible feat, and it all starts this week with home games vs Nevada and Boise St. Win those and they’d be right there in lock territory with 7 to go. 

San Diego St: 15-5 (6-3) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (7) Q1(A): (2-4)

San Diego St took another step toward lock territory with a home win over Utah St, making that their 3rd Q1 win. Although they did lose @ Colorado St, the bounce back win was huge and they set themselves up for quite a run here if they can capitalize this week. They go to Air Force next, which should be an easy win even though it’s on the road. After that it’s to Nevada, which will be a huge game and one that if they can win I would probably lock them up, as they return home next week for a pair of very winnable games vs Colorado St and New Mexico. They’re just 1-3 in MW road games but if they can go 2-0 this week this will be the last we hear about the Aztecs as they’ll be locked up. 

Colorado St: 15-5 (5-4) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS (41) Q1(A): (1-2)

The Rams picked up a massive win at home vs San Diego St and then go the road monkey off their back by taking care of Fresno St on Saturday. Isaiah Stevens was incredible vs the Aztecs, scoring 20 points and dishing 6 assists and his ability to create for both himself and his teammates is what gives this Colorado St a real shot at making noise in March. Nique Clifford is as good a Robin to Stevens’ Batman as well, and he had 20/10/5 vs San Diego St. That 1-2 punch is as good as it gets and they’re now up to 7-4 in Q1/2 which puts them in a great position. They head back home for 2 more winnable games this week, with the first being a Q2 chance vs Boise St. Go 2-0 this week and they’ll likely join San Diego St in lock territory as they’d have far too much going for them to be undone with just 7 remaining. 

Boise St: 14-6 (7-2) — Q1: (5-4) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS (33) Q1(A): (2-1)

Absolutely gigantic week for the Broncos as they stole one on the road vs New Mexico and then undressed Air Force (thank you for your service). They now are tied with Utah St atop the Conference and are in a wildly better position at 7-5 in Q1/2. Max Rice was unbelievable in the New Mexico win, putting up 35 points with 7 made threes. He’s the x-factor for them, as they can really struggle to score so having a guy that can score consistently is massive for their success. They now have the toughest week on their schedule coming up with road trips to Colorado St and Utah St on the docket. I would imagine they go 0-2, which would make them 7-7 in Q1/2 which is certainly still good enough to be in. After that they should go on a run, potentially winning 6 straight before ending the season @ San Diego St. A 6-3 finish and they’ll glide into the field in my opinion, we’ll see if they can pull it off. 

Teetering:

New Mexico: 17-4 (6-3) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS (107) Q1(A): (0-2)

After last week there was some chirping calling for the Lobos to be viewed in a better light, and they had a perfect opportunity to achieve that this week with a home game vs fellow bubble team Boise St. It did not go so well, as they dropped a huge home game to the Broncos in their lone game since we last met. They had been improved defensively on their recent run, but gave up 86 points on 72 possessions to a Boise St team that barely cracks the top-100 offensively. They did however get some help by having some home wins over UC Irvine and LA Tech flip into Q2 to make things look a little prettier, but it’s still an overall weak resumé beyond those 2 wins vs San Diego St and Utah St. They have 2 must-wins this week as they head to Wyoming and then host UNLV, both of which are Q3 games where an L would just add a blemish to an already hurting resumé. Now is not the time to relax. 

Nevada: 16-5 (4-4) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (0-2) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS (119) Q1(A): (0-2)

Nevada has ground to cover right now, with just a 3-4 Q1/2 record they need to start picking up wins over the top dogs in the MW. The schedule did nothing to help them since we last met, as they played just once at home vs San Jose St, a game they won by 30. They do have 2 opportunities this week as they head to Utah St and then get San Diego St at home. There’s really not much more to say this week about the Wolfpack, they need to win games against good teams or they’ll be in the NIT, pretty simple. A loss @ Utah St won’t kill them, but if they can’t convert a home Q1 chance vs the Aztecs they may as well kiss their at-large chances goodbye. This is a massive week for Nevada, we’ll just have to see if they can capitalize. 

---

–American–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Florida Atlantic: 18-4 (8-1) — Q1: (3-1) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (5-1) SOS (109) Q1(A): (1-1)

FAU has now won 7 straight after going through a bit of a rough patch with losses to Florida Gulf Coast and Charlotte. The American Conference offers little resistance to a team this good, but they do go on the road this week to face a UAB team that has been rolling as of late. The Owls are on the verge of locking, thanks to a strong non-conference group of wins highlighted by the one over Arizona. They just need to keep playing well and avoid disaster, which in a Conference like this means winning most of your games. Suffering too many losses in the Q2/3 range could make their at-large chances a little questionable. Wins over UAB and Wichita St this week could be enough to lock them up, but with how they’ve played down to the level of their competition this year I wouldn’t be shocked if they’re upset. 

Teetering: 

Memphis: 16-6 (5-4) — Q1: (1-2) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (5-1) SOS (122) Q1(A): (0-2)

Memphis was finally able to end their losing streak at 4 games, beating Wichita St at home after losing another horrible one to Rice. They had non-conference wins over Virginia, Clemson and A&M but that 4 game stretch of bad losses has now put them in real danger to miss the tourney. I have them out right now, but they certainly have the talent to turn the ship back around if they can move past whatever it is that caused this issue. I’m not sure what makes a team like this lose 4 games to bad teams after starting the season 15-2…one of the wildest swings I can remember. It feels like they have to go 2-0 this week to put this behind them, with a road game vs the worst team in the Conference Temple and then back home vs Tulane. It’s hard to call them must-wins but at this point I can’t see them recovering if they can’t win these. 

---

–WCC–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track: 

Saint Mary’s: 17-6 (9-0) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-2) Q4: (7-0) SOS (94) Q1(A): (2-1)  

The Gaels picked an absolutely massive win @ Gonzaga on Saturday, going into Spokane and grinding out a tough win on the road. They now lead the Zags by 2 games in the WCC and have the rematch at home still to come. They have built this resumé up to the point that they are looking pretty good at this stage, now sitting 6-4 in Q1/2 games. It’s been an unreal turnaround after starting 2-5, going 15-1 with wins over Colorado St and Gonzaga on the road. They are now up to a top-15 defense, and while the offense still lags behind they were able to hit enough shots to get by Gonzaga and are sitting pretty now. They play at Portland and Pacific this week, 2 really bad teams that they just need to handle business against. They still have San Francisco and Gonzaga at home on the schedule, but it’s very possible they finish 16-0 in the WCC which would be incredible. 

Teetering:

Gonzaga: 15-6 (7-2) — Q1: (0-5) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS (101) Q1(A): (0-2)

Gonzaga is on the ropes now, losing at home to Saint Mary’s in what was their lone opportunity fo pick up a Q1 win at home. Now they have 2 more shots, on the road this week @ Kentucky and in the rematch with Saint Mary’s to end the year. The fact is this Gonzaga team is just not what we’re used to, as they really struggle to shoot the 3 and have to almost entirely rely on paint points. They were just 3-14 from 3 against St. Mary’s, and no that they’re 0-5 in Q1 it’s hard to carve out an at-large path. The only way I can see it happening is for them to go to Kentucky and win this Saturday. They’ll get to beat up on Portland first, but they’ll be in full desperation mode on Saturday as they look to land that signature win they desperately need. 

---

–A-10–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Dayton: 18-3 (8-1) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (79) Q1(A): (0-1)

The Nation’s best mid-major team bounced back from a tough loss @ Richmond last week going 2-0 at home. DaRon Holmes should be a household name at this point, so I’m going to use my only platform to shed light on what has been an All-American caliber season from the Flyers big man. He’s now 2nd in Kenpom’s POY standings, behind Edey of course, and is now damn near 60% from 2 and 40% from 3. He had 25 and 34 respectively this week and is averaging 20 and 8 with over 2 blocks pg. The man is a beast, a kind of guy that can carry a team in March, especially with a surrounding cast that is now top-10 in 3-point shooting at 39%. They obviously have weaknesses defensively, but with Holmes anchoring things they are a legitimate threat to do some damage in the tourney. They just have to keep handling business in a Conference that is full of land mines and zero opportunity. This week is two Q2 games @ St. Joe’s and VCU. Two teams they should beat but also very tricky games the schedule. A 2-0 week and we’re feeling real confident in this resumé. 

Teetering:

Richmond: 16-6 (8-1) — Q1: (1-2) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS (124) Q1(A): (1-2)

The Spiders had won 11 straight games, including the home upset of Dayton to get themselves onto the bubble. They stubbed their toe a bit this week losing @ VCU, dropping them to 6-5 in Q1/2 with just 1 Q1 win. Transfer guard Jordan King has been a revelation, and his ability to score is about the only reliable offense they have, as they really struggle to score and have to rely on their defense. They are right in that first 4 out, next 4 out grouping in my mind, and while some have them in I think they need another big win or 2 to feel worthy of getting in. The bad news is they really don’t have the opportunity to do that until the final game of the season @ George Mason. It would be a very interesting case if they were able to run the table and finish the season 25-6, as the SOS is going to remain bad but would that massive win over Dayton be enough to get them in? It’s hard to tell, and would likely be dependent on what the other teams on the bubble are able to do. Either way, the win over Dayton surely gives them at-large life as we enter February. 

---

–Others–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

Indiana St: 19-3 (11-1) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS (123) Q1(A): (0-2)

The Sycamores have earned there way onto the bubble watch, as they avenged their loss to Drake and are now 4-3 in Q1/2. This is a fun team that can really score, led by PG Isaiah Swope and big man Robbie Avila, they are a top-10 3 point shooting team and top-15 in overall offensive efficiency. Avila is a guy who will take the Country by storm if Indiana St can find their way into the tourney, as he has one of the more unique physiques you’ll find in college basketball, and more importantly he can ball. If they can just keep up the firepower and not fall asleep during any of these remaining conference games they would have the strongest case of any of these mid-major schools. At 27-3 I can’t imagine they would miss the tourney if they were to lose to Drake or someone in the MVC tourney. It’s all in front of them, but they can’t afford to stain that squeaky clean resumé that is going to be the key selling point if they need an at-large bid. 

Grand Canyon: 20-2 (11-1) — Q1: (1-1) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (11-0) SOS (244) Q1(A): (0-0)

Bryce Drew appears to have built a mid-major juggernaut and they continue to roll through this WAC schedule. What they are hanging their hat on is that win over San Diego St, which continues to look better and better as they rise in the rankings. They aren’t particularly special in any area, but what they do is play in attack mode at all times, ranking top-5 in FTA’s as they move the ball and attack over and over and over. They live at the line, which helps make up for the fact they really struggle to shoot the ball at just 33% from 3. They avenged their 1 conference loss to Seattle and the only other is to a rising South Carolina team. The SOS is weak for sure, but I find it hard to believe a team that would be somewhere around 30-3 would be left out if they lost in the WAC tourney. I hope it doesn’t come to that, but they need to continue to roll through this schedule so they’re in position in case. 

James Madison: 19-3 (8-3) — Q1: (1-0) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (2-2) Q4: (14-0) SOS (319) Q1(A): (1-0)

The Dukes need to run the table, and may be too far away given the losses to App St, but their win over Michigan St put them on the map and gives them a sliver of hope. They are led by Terrance Edwards and BC transfer TJ Bickerstaff, but somehow just can’t seem to get by App St. The good news is they always say it’s tough to beat a team 3 times, which App St will likely need to do to win the Sun Belt Conference. 27-3 plus a couple wins in the Conference tourney would make a compelling case if they were to drop another one to App St. They sit in a similar position as Grand Canyon, hanging on to that one top-25 win and hopeful that racking up a ton of wins in Conference would be enough to make up for the lack of tough games on the schedule. They have to take care of business, but the committee could be faced with several tough decisions if these mid-majors run the table and then lose in the Conference tourney’s. 

McNeese St: 15-3 (8-1) — Q1: (0-1) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (10-1) SOS (299) Q1(A): (0-1)

Will Wade has come to McNeese St and has put together an elite offensive team, now ranked 2nd in the country in 3 point shooting %. They’re led by TCU transfer Shahada Wells, who is clearly the straw that stirs the drink for the Cowboys. They just suffered a tough Q4 loss that really hurts their at-large chances, but they do have those 3 Q2 wins on their plate over VCU/UAB/Michigan and similar to the few teams above them here they would have an interesting case if they could go unbeaten the rest of the way finishing 24-3. They are so much better than the rest of their Conference I don’t see how they lose their tourney, but it will be interesting to monitor down the stretch. I don’t think we’ve seen this many mid-major teams with great records like this in a while

Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, and exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in that first article.

For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally, the Flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. The beauty of this series is it is completely reactionary week to week, and now that we’re 6 weeks into this experiment we have storylines that continue to play out. The fun is just beginning as we hit the home stretch, with roughly 5 weeks left in the regular season. Let’s dive in.

1. Houston: (19-2) Off (15) Def (1) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Houston is an absolute machine right now, as they beat up on bubble team K-State and then went to Austin to grind out a win vs Texas. They are a relentless force, regardless of where they play and who they play. Despite being down 6 late in the 2^nd half, they battled back to force OT and beat a desperate Texas team in a rowdy environment. They outrebounded the Longhorns by 11 and their trio of guards, led by Jamal Shead, combined for 52 points. Shead is the straw that stirs the drink for these Cougars and has continued his run scoring 17 and 25 this past week. It’s beginning to feel as if I’m copy and pasting week to week with this group, as we know exactly who they are and how they win. It’s all about defense and rebounding, and despite not playing a guy over 6’8” they are able to dominate in both areas. Their next game is the biggest challenge of the season though, as they get their first taste of Allen Fieldhouse as members of the Big 12. Massive game for the Big 12 race and it will be must-watch television.
2. Purdue: (20-2) Off (1) Def (17) – FLYER
   • It was another 2-0 week for Purdue, winning at Rutgers and then coming home to beat Northwestern in OT. The latter became an expose on exactly the weaknesses that this Purdue team has. Northwestern’s trio of guards was able to get whatever looks they wanted offensively as they broke Purdue down defensively attacking Edey in ball screen actions. Those 3 shot 23/42 from the field, most of which were jump shots, which is a very difficult thing to do consistently over the long haul. So while they did expose some things defensively for Purdue, causing them to fall into the Flyer territory, they still lost in the end and did so playing as well as you could imagine offensively. Edey is definitely a weakness for Purdue on defense, but his ability to absolutely dominate on the other end is why he’s the NPOY. Despite missing 9 FT’s he still had 30 and 13 and with the surrounding cast shooting 10/21 from 3 we saw exactly how and why this year’s Purdue team is a step above last year’s iteration. This week they head to Wisconsin in what is a massive game for the Big Ten regular season race.
3. UConn: (19-2) Off (3) Def (24) – FLYER
   • I’m feeling more and more confident in this UConn team, shocker they’ve won 9 in a row, but it’s more about how they’re winning. Since the return of Clingan they’ve improved from 42^nd to 24^th defensively, which we spoke about at the time being the likely result. His presence is huge, as we’ve discussed, but now there’s a 2^nd force rising and that’s 5-star FR Stephon Castle. In their 2^nd win of the week over Providence, Castle had a career high 20 points and looked as comfortable as he has all season. He’s missed games to injury, but has been back at full strength for this run and seems to be getting better and better. He has shot 7/20 from 3 over this run, which isn’t amazing but 35% is much better than his season avg 27%. He’s getting better, and that only makes a team that’s the 3^rd best offense in the Country that much better. Next, they head to what will be a desperate St. John’s team and then host bubble team Butler. A 2-0 week would be ridiculously impressive, but even a tough road loss with a bounce back win should keep them right on pace.
4. Arizona: (16-5) Off (6) Def (10) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Arizona bounced back after that disgusting loss last week to Oregon St by going to Eugene and knocking off Oregon and then dismantling Cal at home. They still look like the most well rounded team analytically, being top-10 in both efficiency metrics. Teams who accomplish that feat are ridiculously successful in March, with 70% of those teams since ’05 getting to the Elite 8. You cannot find another category of team analytically with even close to that high of a chance at getting that far. Even 1 seeds in general get there only 62% of the time, and right now Zona is on track for a 2 seed, which average Elite 8 trips just 43% of the time. The data is telling us what the data is telling us, and as hard as it is to overlook those horrific losses, you’d have to at this point. That win @ Oregon was very impressive, and they’ll have another chance to impress as they head to Utah later this week. First, it’s a home game vs a Stanford in a chance to avenge one of their poor road losses. Go 2-0 and I’ll feel much less uneasy about this team.
5. Auburn: (17-4) (17) (3) – FLYER
   • Well well well, that weakness in the backcourt that we spoke about last week shined bright for Auburn in their loss to Mississippi St, as they mustered just 58 points, going 6-24 from 3. That’s their issue, and it’s about time we see the data start to reflect that weakness as they have dropped into flyer territory. Now, where they excel is on the interior, as we’ve discussed, and against bad teams Broome and Williams can really dominate, just as they did in their bounce back win over Vandy. They defend at an elite level, and if you don’t take care of the ball they will run you out of the gym. That’s their formula, speed up the game, get out and run to get easy buckets and when it slows down feed it inside to Broome. It can work, but we’ve yet to see it work in a Q1 game as they’re now 0-4. They need a big win, and this next week is going to present them with 2 opportunities to do so. They go to Ole Miss and then host Bama. Both of those teams love to run and score at a high clip, so their defense is going to be a huge factor in trying to win both of those games. It’ll strength on strength, which will be both fun to watch and very telling in the mystery of Auburn being a top-5 analytical team with 0 big time wins.
6. Tennessee: (15-5) Off (31) Def (2) – FLYER
   • Well, right when I start to believe Tennessee is turning the corner offensively, they lay an absolute egg at home vs South Carolina. They scored just 59 points on 65 possessions, 31 of which were by Dalton Knecht. Was this a one-off or just a reality that they can’t score outside of Knecht? Only time will tell, but that bad of an effort at home is not something I’m going to just overlook. I had written in the past that the emergence of Zakai Ziegler was exactly what they needed, and he had just 2 points and 3 assists in 33 minutes. He’s the x-factor, as they really need him to be a playmaker from the point to get guys like Vescovi and Jordan-James open shots. There’s a ton of pressure and him and Knecht, and while Knecht can seemingly deliver night after night, they can’t afford Ziegler to be inconsistent. They have a massive game up next as they head to Rupp Arena to face Kentucky. A loss to that young team that can’t play defense and the alarms will start to go off. LSU at home after should be an easy win, but 1-1 next week is going to be concerning.
7. UNC: (17-4) (19) (4) – FLYER
   • Just as I was beginning to think UNC was the best team in the Country they lose an awful one @ Georgia Tech. It was a nice reminder that this team does have holes, especially on the offensive end. Nobody would think that’s where this team struggles, as they have massive names in RJ Davis and Armando Bacot, who should be 2 guys that could carry a team offensively. What I’m watching is the slump of Bacot, who has now scored just 19 points over the previous 3 games. His usage numbers are at an all-time low for his career, which for a team that can go through scoring droughts is a bit mystifying. This is a guy that’s shooting an ungodly 79% from 2 right now…get him the ball. I get RJ Davis is your guy but Cormac Ryan does not need to be going 3/14 from the field while Bacot is a non-factor. This has to be an adjustment made by Hubert Davis, as this is an all-conference center that needs to be fed the ball more. Anyway, that’s an easy adjustment, and what makes me confident is they are still playing very well defensively and have a massive bounce back chance with Duke coming to Chapel Hill on Saturday. After that they get Clemson at home as well, so that could be 2 huge wins at home for a team that was as hot as anyone entering last week. I expect a bounce back, and I think that starts with getting your All-Conference 5 man more involved in the offense. We’ll see.
8. Alabama: (15-6) Off (2) Def (66) – VULNERABLE
   • I have harped on Bama and their lack of defensive ability for weeks now, but they continue to win games by outscoring teams. They were down by as many as 16 to Georgia but came back to win by 9. They gave up 76 points, but the most alarming issue is the rebounding, as they gave up 17 offensive rebounds. That’s their huge issue defensively, as they pressure and force turnovers, they just can’t finish possessions with a rebound often enough. I’ve said it before, but that will be a debilitating problem for them in March. They have a very difficult matchup for them up next in Mississipi St this week. While it’s at home, they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the Country, so if they show up defensively they could give Bama everything they want and more. After that is the rematch @ Auburn, so it’s going to be an illuminating week for a team that I still have 0 confidence in when the tournament rolls around.
9. BYU: (15-5) (8) (24) – FLYER
   • It was kind of a quiet week for BYU as they beat Texas at home, as they should have, and then had the rest of the week off. Their rotation has been a bit of a mystery to me and seems to be something that Pope has been trying to figure out himself. 9 different guys have started and as many as 10 have had a meaningful role. The rotation vs Texas was down to 8, and maybe that’s where it’ll settle out. Mainstays Traore and Knell are back from injury but coming off the bench, maybe that’ll remain the case but if they can get back in rhythm I think BYU could start to get on a roll. They go to WVU in the ultimate land mine game in the Big 12, as the Mountaineers are not good but have upset Kansas and Texas already at home. Have to grind out a W there if you’re legitimately a top-10 team. After that is Oklahoma on the road, who has been as up and down as you can get in the Conference. Must-win followed by a huge opportunity. Smells like an upset brewing in that trap game, but after this week we’ll have much more to say on this Cougars team, if they stay in the top-10 of course.
10. Illinois: (16-5) (5) (31) – FLYER
    • Illinois did have a nice week after losing to Northwestern, beating IU at home and then going on the road to beat Ohio St. The latter was very impressive, knowing how badly the Buckeyes needed a win to go into Columbus and win by 12 was good to see. The duo of Terrance Shannon and Marcus Domask is as difficult an offensive combo to stop as there is in the Country. What I love about this Illinois team is their flexibility, having 8 solid contributors but the ability to play small as they most often do but also with Dainja coming off the bench as a post presence. They can score in so many ways, as they often post Domask as well and have shooters all around. Their issue is defensively, as they are one of the worst teams in the Country at forcing TO’s. They have good paint presence with Hawkins and they rebound well, they just allow teams to move freely and get good looks due to the lack of pressure they put on. It’s not a major knock, but as we saw in the Northwestern game when they gave up 96, you can’t just allow good shooting teams to get open looks over and over. They only have 1 game until we meet again, at home vs Nebraska, who is horrible on the road so I imagine the train will keep on rolling for this group.
11. Wisconsin: (16-5) (7) (39) – FLYER
12. Duke: (16-4) Off (9) Def (30) – FLYER
13. Iowa St: (16-4) (49) (5) – VULNERABLE
14. Marquette: (16-5) (28) (13) – FLYER
15. Kansas: (17-4) (24) (22) – FLYER
16. Baylor: (15-4) (4) (77) – VULNERABLE
17. Michigan St: (13-8) (29) (20) – FLYER
18. Creighton: (16-5) (39) (12) – FLYER
19. Gonzaga: (16-5) Off (27) Def (32) – VULNERABLE
20. New Mexico: (18-4) (38) (26) – VULNERABLE

*Most Recent Update Here* Bubble Watch

Welcome to the most in-depth and comprehensive March Madness Bubble Watch on the internet, at least that I’m aware of, and please feel free to burst my bubble and make me aware of a better one if it’s out there. It can be a confusing task to try and figure out where your favorite team might stack up and what they need to do the rest of the season to be dancing. Hell even as a self-proclaimed bracketologist myself I get lost in the weeds sometimes, so maybe this column is more of a cathartic release and organizational tool for me than it is a source of joy for you but hey, I appreciate you nonetheless. Every fan just wants to know there’s a chance, a little drop of hope, a path to watching their team in the NCAA tournament. Well, we have over 60 teams on the 1st watch, all vying for the at-large bids, so needless to say hope abounds as we enter February. It has once again been a wild season up to this point as there is seemingly no dominant teams this season, which some may argue is not so wild these days as it may just be the new normal in college hoops. March figures to be just as wild and unpredictable as ever, but what we can’t allow to be wild and unpredictable is Selection Sunday, and that’s why we’re all here right? I’m going to assign teams to 3 groups – Locks, On the Right Track and Teetering. Any team left out is not even on the radar, so maybe 4 groups for you sticklers out there. The “Locks” are basically teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in. The “On the Right Track” group are teams who will need to meltdown in order to not get in, but we’ve all seen a late season meltdown or two. Generally they are probably on the 6-7 line or better and have a significant number of Q1 wins and positive momentum sending them in the right direction. Lastly the “Teetering” group, I’m sure at this point you can figure it out but nevertheless, these could be teams on the right side of the bubble who just need to hold serve, or those teams who are on the outside looking in that I still see a legitimate path to getting in. For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (taken from ESPN’s BPI) and a final category Tournament Wins (TW’s) (which will be the total number of wins against teams in the projected field, as calculated by me). Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 68 teams on the first watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 1/29. Check out my current bracket projection here. 

Bubble Breakdown:

Total Bids: 68

1-bid conferences: 23

Locks: 7

Bids Left: 38

Bubble: 59

---

–ACC–

Locks: 

 

On the Right Track:

Duke: 15-4 (5-2) — Q1: (4-1) Q2: (0-3) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (92) TW’s (3)

I think most cbb fans would look at this Duke team right now and think, of course they’re safe, and in the end they’d probably be correct. However, when you take a look at this resumé it’s actually pretty ugly. They do have the good non-con wins over Baylor and Michigan St, but that 0-3 record in Q2 is pretty gross, and the 92 SOS is not going to help much. Add in the fact that the ACC once again doesn’t offer up much in terms of resumé builders and you could envision a world where they drop a couple more games to teams they shouldn’t and all of a sudden they could find themselves on the bubble. They have 5-6 Q1 chances left, with all but the UNC game in Durham on the road. I’m just saying there’s a chance, because there’s a world where they go 0-5 in those road games and all of a sudden they could be like 5-9 in Q1-2 games. This is a talented group, but the youth has reared its ugly head several times already, so this is still a situation worth monitoring, especially when this week offers up trips to Blacksburg and then Chapel Hill. 0-2 this week and they’re sitting at 4-6 in Q1-2 games…

Clemson: 13-6 (3-5) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (15) TW’s (4)

Clemson got off to a really hot start amassing an 11-1 record with 4 wins over teams I’m currently projecting in the field. Since then it’s been the polar opposite, going 2-5 including a loss at home to Georgia Tech. They have really struggled to defend in this stretch, allowing over 80 ppg in those 5 losses after not allowing a single opponent to hit 80 in their first 12 games. At some point that will have to be remedied, and they have very few Q1 opportunities to correct for this down the stretch in the ACC. They have just 5 road games left and only 2 of them will likely land in Q1. Drop both of those (UNC/Wake Forest) and all of a sudden they’re just 3-7 in Q1 and any additional loss the rest of the way is going to be a bad one. So, unless they can finish 10-2 to finish up the year it’s likely going to get a little dicey for Clemson. That non-con group of wins might be enough to keep them in, but if they do end up dropping a couple of stinkers we could be writing about Clemson all the way up to Selection Sunday. 

Teetering:

Miami (FL): 14-6 (5-4) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (7-1) SOS: (81) TW’s (1)

The Hurricanes are right on the cusp of the Last 4 In and the First 4 Out as I’m writing this. I have them out, some have them in, but either way they have some work to do if they want to feel comfortable come Selection Sunday. They have just 1 high quality win, at home v Clemson, and a few other good wins like neutral court wins over K-State/Georgia. The issue more lies with the horrific losses, most notably at home v Louisville, who might be the worst power 5 team in the Country. The SOS is bad, the 2 Q3/4 losses are awful, but 6-4 in Q1/2 games is where they will hang their hat. What they face upcoming is as daunting of a schedule as you can get in the ACC, with their next 7 games all going to be Q1/2 games. That screams opportunity for bubble teams, and while they may drop a few, it gives them a chance to knock off teams like Duke/UNC at home. For now, they go to a desperate N.C. State team this week followed by VA Tech at home. 2-0 and they would likely get back into the field. This one will be a fun one to monitor. 

Virginia Tech: 13-7 (5-4) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (31) TW’s (3)

These ACC resumé’s are difficult to separate, but for the bubble teams I have the Hokies right near the top as they have more solid wins, especially the W over Iowa St which is aging like fine wine. They played a tough non-conference schedule, playing 5 projected tourney teams, going 2-3. They should get credit for the big wins they have, but being just 4-7 in Q1/2 games, with Q2 being below .500 is very meh. They’re right on the doorstep, and with the resumé being sqeaky clean on the back-end, they just need a few more big wins to flip the script. Lucky for them, here come the Dukies, as they host Duke tonight. They also head to Miami later on this week, so going 1-1 in those would make some headway, but the win over Duke would be much bigger. It’s all about capitalizing and not stepping on a land mine along the way, easy right? 

Syracuse: 13-6 (5-4) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS: (26) TW’s (0)

The Orange are in a peculiar position, as they’ve really handled their business for the most part this season against teams they should beat, going 12-1 in Q2-4 games. It’s just that pesky idea that in order to be considered a good team, you have to win a few games against other good teams. Their best win to date is a neutral court W over Oregon, followed by a win @ Pitt. That’s not going to be enough to get them in the field. The good news is they have some opportunities down the road, with both UNC and Clemson coming to town in February, as well as an upcoming road game against fellow bubble team Wake Forest. Those are giant opportunities for them to try and work their way into the field, but in the ACC there are land mines around every corner, none bigger than the upcoming trip to a feisty BC team. I have 10 ACC teams on the watch, at least half of which I would expect to miss the dance, so it’s going to be wild last 6 weeks as we watch these teams cannibalize each other. 

Wake Forest: 13-6 (5-3) — Q1: (0-2) Q2: (5-4) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (69) TW’s (0)

Steve Forbes brought a bunch of talent to this team in the off-season, notably 2 Gonzaga transfer Hunter Sallis and Efton Reid, so I had some hope they’d be a tourney team this year. As of now, that’s not looking great as they have beaten 0 teams I’m projecting in as of now and have 0 Q1 wins. At some point you have to beat somebody, and a la Syracuse that’s their main issue at the moment. They have a pretty clean resumé other than the lack of wins, so down the stretch it’s all going to be about capitalizing on those Q1 opportunities as they present themselves. This week they go to Pitt, which is barely qualifying as Q1 but is Q1 nonetheless. Win that and then come back home and beat Syracuse and all of a sudden you’re pushing toward the top of the first team’s out group. It’s going to take some work, but the path is there. 

Virginia: 15-5 (6-3) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (90) TW’s (1)

Tony Bennett and co. have been playing much better as of late, winners of 4 straight, but it has been against pretty weak competition in the ACC. They can hang their hat on 1 win against another bubble team Texas A&M right now, that’s really about it. The good news for them is they still have Clemson/UNC/Duke left on the schedule, so the opportunities are out there, they just need to capitalize. It’s essentially the same scenario as Wake/Syracuse, clean resumé just lack the wins to be able to get in the dance. If I have confidence in any of these teams to actually avoid bad losses and maybe steal a big win or 2 it’s a team led by Tony Bennett, but we’re talking about a team that’s 179th in offensive efficiency right now so I’m not sure we can ever be very confident. This week it’s another cupcake with ND at home, and then a trip to Clemson in what is a massive opportunity. Win that and the tide will begin to turn, but a loss will leave them in the exact same position. 

N.C. State: 13-7 (5-4) — Q1: (0-5) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (63) TW’s (0)

I feel like I’m beating a dead horse here in the ACC but for crying out loud nobody in this Conference can win a Q1 game. NC State, just like Virginia/Syracuse/Wake needs to stack up some big wins as going 10-0 in Q3/4 to inflate your record isn’t going to get it done. The Wolfpack are pretty far down the bubble list if we’re just being straight up, as 3-7 in Q1/2 is one of the weaker records on the watch, but what we do here is outline the path, if it exists. The good news is 0 bad losses, and being above .500 in Q2 is solid. It’s time to start hunting those Q1 games and taking advantage, and it’s going to take more than 1, maybe even more than 2. They won’t have an opportunity this week, but that doesn’t mean you can just let your guard down and blow the whole thing up. Gotta take care of business at home v Miami and Georgia Tech. Drop either one of those and we may not be able to carve out a path for this group. Big week to just survive and advance. 

Florida St: 12-8 (6-3) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (2-3) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (32) TW’s (0)

Finally something unique in this Conference resumé wise, as the Seminoles have what is quite possibly the wildest one on the watch. We have a team that’s 6-5 in Q1/2 games but just 2-3 in Q3 games, strange. But even more strange is they’ve been able to amass 6 Q1/2 wins without beating a single team in the projected field. It’s going to take a hell of a run by these Seminoles to get themselves into the dance, but the fact they are 6-2 in their last 8 games, losing to UNC/Clemson, has given me hope that the run is in there. This week they go to Louisville and BC, talk about land mines, but if they survive that and are 8-3 in the ACC they are very much still alive. They can afford 0 bad losses the rest of the way, and will have the home game v Duke circled on their calendar in mid-February. Don’t get too excited Seminole fans, but just know, there’s a path. 

---

–Big Ten–

Locks:

On the Right Track:

Wisconsin: 16-4 (8-1) — Q1: (5-3) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (6) TW’s (5)

It would take an absolute collapse in the final 11 games for Wisconsin to not make the tournament, but let’s remember this team started 11-2 last year only to finish 4-12 the rest of the way. Of course, I know they’re much improved this season over last, thanks to the addition of AJ Storr. I’m just holding off 1 more week because there’s a world where they go to Nebraska and lose and then they host Purdue, which will be a heavyweight fight. Obviously, going 0-2 in those games isn’t going to send them down to the actual bubble conversation, but all of a sudden the idea of a collapse could start to creep in. After that they have 2 more road games, so it’s not an extreme idea to think we could be sitting here in 2 weeks having watched Wisconsin lose 4 in a row. In reality, I don’t think that’s going to happen, but what fun would it be to just lock em up and forget about em. Gotta make them earn it this early. 

Illinois: 15-5 (6-3) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (41) TW’s (3)

The Illini are sitting in a pretty good spot at this point, with just 1 blemish on the resumé and a couple of top notch wins over FAU and Michigan St. Terrance Shannon Jr is back as well, so they’re at full strength the rest of the way and seem like the clear 3rd best team in the Big Ten. I don’t see them in much danger to be missing the tourney, but with 11 games left anything is possible. They go to a struggling Ohio St team and then host Nebraska, so a 2-0 week would likely be exactly what we need to just lock this one up. Similar to Wisconsin, we’ll make them earn that lock status, but I would feel fairly confident as an Illinois fan, as they should be thinking more about how deep of a run this talented group can go on. 

Northwestern: 15-5 (6-3) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-1) SOS: (42) TW’s (4)

The Wildcats aren’t getting the love that I think they deserve Nationally, as the consensus has them as a 10 seed right now, but I have them on the 7 line with those 4 massive wins. I get they lost a stinker to Chicago St, but they now have wins over Purdue/Illinois/Dayton who are all on the 5 seed line or better. I won’t go in depth as to why I think folks such as Lunardi are off base here, but having them below Sparty, for example, is just absurd…look a the resumé yourself. I think Boo Buie and company are well on their way to be dancing in what would be back-to-back years for the first time under coach Collins. Give the Wildcats some love people, they’ve surely earned it at this point. Of course, I wouldn’t be being fair if I didn’t mention they could fall apart, and with 2 Conference road games this week I could be eating my words this time next week. They’ll lose to Purdue, but if they are who I think they are they’ll bounce back and win in Minnesota. 

Teetering: 

Nebraska: 15-6 (5-5) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (48) TW’s (3)

I have Nebraska on the right side of things as of now, but the blowout losses on the road are beginning to get concerning. They have some massive wins at home, including the trophy win over Purdue, but the fact they can’t win on the road could come back to haunt them. Regardless, they have 3 Q1 wins and have a pretty clean resumé aside from the below .500 record in Q2 games. They are just a couple of losses away from getting overtaken though, so they still need to take care of business to stay in good position. This week they have a massive opportunity with Wisconsin coming to town. Win that and that’s just another step closer to getting to their first tourney since 2014. A home loss though followed by what is almost assuredly a loss @ Illinois and things will get real dicey for the Cornhuskers. 

Michigan St:  12-8 (4-5) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (8) TW’s (1)

Thanks to the metrics everyone is convinced this Michigan St team is a lot better than their resumé suggests. Listen, I’m as big a Tom Izzo fan as there is, but we’re talking about a team that is just 4-8 in Q1/2 games – Wake Forest is 5-6 people. I’m not suggesting Sparty should fall below Wake Forest right now in the bubble, I have them in the field, all I’m saying is 1 win over Baylor shouldn’t just punch their ticket. At some point that 2-7 Q1 number should start to tell us something. I understand the SOS is very strong, but at some point you do have to start winning games to earn what folks like Lunardi are giving them (7 seed). They have just 1 home game left that will fall as Q1, Illinois, the rest of the opportunities are going to be on the road (where they’re just 1-4 on the year). This week is pretty easy with Michigan/Maryland at home. Those 2 are must-win games that really don’t help the resumé much. Sparty is in more danger than you think folks. 

Indiana: 12-8 (4-5) — Q1: (0-7) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (18) TW’s (0)

The Hoosiers probably shouldn’t even be on the watch at this stage, but the resumé is so squeaky clean I just can’t help but see a path. They have lost 3 in a row now to the top-3 teams in the Conference, nothing to be embarrassed over. Their issue is much like the group of ACC teams, no big time wins. The opportunity for those wins abound though and the 12-1 record outside of Q1 has to keep you alive a little longer. They still get Wisconsin and Michigan St at home, plus several more Q2 home games left. They could in theory rack up 5 or 6 more Q1/2 wins down the stretch if they just win their home games. It starts this week with Iowa and Penn St, with the former being a Q2 opportunity. 14-8 and you’re still alive, barely a pulse, but still alive nonetheless. They certainly have the talent to go on a run down the stretch, but it’s nut up or shut up time for IU. 

Maryland: 13-8 (5-5) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (3-2) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (55) TW’s (2)

This one is more of a hunch, as the resumé probably doesn’t deserve to be on the watch but I can’t help it when I see the talent on this team and think they have a run in them. The good news is they have 2 very good wins on the road v Illinois and Iowa plus a home win v Nebraska. The main reason for my confidence is those 3 wins also happen to be their previous 3 wins, so momentum is building as they try and overcome the horrific non-conference losses to Davidson and UAB. They have a long way to go, but similar to IU the schedule presents them with a lot of opportunities to really stack up some quality wins. They have to be damn near perfect, but the path is there and it starts with a trip to Sparty this weekend. While a loss there won’t kill them, it certainly makes the walls start to close in on them, as they may only be able to afford a couple losses the rest of the way. 

---

–Big 12–

Locks: 

On the Right Track:

Texas Tech: 16-3 (5-1) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (73) TW’s (3)

The Red Raiders are the surprise of the season, as they sit atop the Big 12 standings a third of the way through, and now sit with 3 Q1 wins and zero bad losses. Grant McCasland has been a revelation and via the transfer portal has built a dangerous team from the ashes.  Similar to Kansas, they feel as if they’re just 1 big win away from being able to just lock up and move on. They have a much weaker non-conference schedule though, and while they don’t have any bad losses, just 5 Q1/2 wins is just a little too low to punch the ticket just yet. The great thing for them is the Big 12 is the land of opportunity, as their remaining schedule has at least 9 more Q1/2 opportunities, so just racking up a couple more should do the trick. Of course, if they collapse and go 0-9 in those games then it’s going to look pretty rough. Nothing has suggested they will do that, but we’ll make them solidify themselves just a bit more before moving on. They go to TCU and then host Cincy. 2-0 is an obvious punch of the ticket, but 1-1 might be enough too. We’ll see how it goes. 

Iowa St: 16-4 (5-2) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (56) TW’s (3)

The Cyclones are on a tear right now, winners of 5 out of their last 6, including wins over Houston/Kansas and @ TCU. Quite the run, and surprisingly they are actually showing some competency on the offensive end which has been their achilles heel over the last few years. We know they can defend, but with guys like Gilbert/Lipsey/King all stepping up in the scoring department they look much more formidable than past iterations. Their weak non-conference schedule leaves more to be done though, and the schedule is daunting. They head to Baylor and Texas this week, so 0-2 puts them 6-6 in Q1/2 games and it’s not going to get any easier as we keep rolling. They’re in a great position, just need to grab a couple more wins to shore up the resumé. 

Baylor: 13-5 (3-3) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (30) TW’s (3)

Baylor’s lack of defense has finally been catching up to them as Big 12 play has gotten underway, and they’ve now lost 3 in a row. They’re one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the Country, with 6 guys shooting 37% or better and are 41% as a team. The issue is they’re 68th defensively, and in a Conference as tough as this, they’re just not going to be able to survive that unbalanced. They’re just 5-5 in Q1/2 games, which is good enough right now to be firmly in, it’s just not going to be enough if they can’t get the train back on the tracks. They head to UCF and then get a really good Iowa St team at home. There’s a world where next week we’re looking at a 13-7 Baylor team in complete free-fall. There’s also a world where they’re 15-5 and will be a close lock consideration. I have no idea which way it’ll go, and maybe it’ll be right in the middle, all I know is I’m excited to watch it play out.  

BYU: 15-5 (3-4) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (61) TW’s (3)

BYU was white hot and the darlings of the efficiency metrics entering Big 12 play, but they’ve been hit in the mouth by this daunting Conference in year 1. They’ve been beat up by some injuries also, but they’re slowly returning guys like Fous Traore and Trevin Knell, who are very important to what they do, so I have some hope they can right the ship and remain on their trajectory to be dancing. For now, they sit right with this group of teams in the middle of the Conference along the 4-6 seed lines. They’re safely in as it stands, but given how they’ve struggled early on I can understand any skepticism folks may have for this group. It’s all in front of you in this Conference, as there’s opportunities each week to bolster the resumé. This week they have some time off and then a trip to WVU in what should be a W, so not much should change by the next time we meet, barring a catastrophe.  

Oklahoma: 15-5 (3-4) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (58) TW’s (2)

I don’t want to say the Sooners are in big trouble but they have now lost back-to-back games at home to Texas and Texas Tech. You really can’t afford to lose games at home in this league, and now they have to head to Kansas St and UCF this week. The record looks solid but then you realize 8-0 in Q4 is virtually useless and you are hanging on to just 2 quality wins. They’re on the right track, but based on their recent play and what’s in front of them, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them drift down to the teetering category if they can’t pull of a road win here this week. They’ve been a great story, and Porter Moser deserves credit for getting them to this level, but this league is no joke. We’ll see how it plays out, but of the group of teams in the middle of the Big 12 right now Oklahoma is the one I’m least confident can keep it up. 

Teetering:

TCU: 15-5 (4-3) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (47) TW’s (3)

TCU played a pathetically bad non-conference and are just 3-5 in Q1/2 games, but thanks to this difficult Conference those 3 wins are against Houston/Baylor/Oklahoma, which is a very impressive trio of wins. They don’t do anything spectacular, but they play fast and share the ball, with Emmanuel Miller as their leader and transfers Jameer Nelson Jr and Trevian Tennyson providing scoring sparks. It’s hard to truly tell who they are exactly and how good they could be given the weak schedule, but if the road win over Baylor tells you anything it’s they have the ceiling to be very dangerous. They host both Texas Tech and Texas this week, win both of those and we will all be forced to take this year’s version of TCU seriously. 

Texas: 14-6 (3-4) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (53) TW’s (2)

The Longhorns have been a bit of an enigma in the first full season under Rodney Terry, as they underwent quite a bit of turnover but on paper looked to be much better than they’ve been thus far. They’ve been a little disjointed due to some injuries, but Dylan Disu has been back in the starting lineup for the last 6 games and is playing well. They struggle to defend, which is far different than what we saw under Beard, but like I said with Baylor in this league you’re going to struggle to win consistently if you can’t defend. They get a massive opportunity to add to the resumé tonight vs Houston though, and a win over a team that good is going to really push them into solidly in the field. A loss though and we’re looking at a team that’s 5-7 outside of Q4, which is just not good enough. They’ll head to TCU later in the week, so an 0-2 week is on the table and would likely put them on the wrong side of the bubble when we next meet. It could get dicey for Terry in year 1. 

Kansas St: 14-6 (4-3) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (33) TW’s (3)

This year’s K-State team is far from the quality we saw a year ago but Jerome Tang still has the talent on this roster to squeak into the dance again. The struggle for this year’s team has been offensively, as they just haven’t gelled like they did a year ago, evidenced by their 348th ranking in turnover %. Not to mention they’re shooting just 31.7% from 3 which is tough to win with, especially when you can’t take care of the basketball. In spite of all of that they’ve been able to rack up a few good wins thanks to their defense and offensive rebounding. The big win they’re hanging their hat on is over Baylor, and they get another chance to add to that with Oklahoma coming in this week. They desperately need that to add another notch to the bedpost, as the 1 meager Q1 win is not going to get it done. The trip later in the week to Oklahoma St is also a must-win so this is shaping up to be a pivotal week for the Wildcats to try and fight their way onto the right side of the bubble.

Cincinnati: 14-6 (3-4) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (68) TW’s (2)

 Cincy is definitely a surprise as I certainly wouldn’t have predicted they would even be near the bubble in year 1 in the Big 12. The keys to their success have been defense and rebounding, pretty good areas to excel in, but they’ve done it for the most part against a pretty weak schedule. Obviously, it has started to ramp up as Big 12 play has started, but they are still in dire need of some big wins. They do have wins over BYU and TCU in Conference play, but just 3-6 in Q1/2 is far too little at this point. As we’ve said before, they’re in the Conference of opportunity, so the path is obvious, win your home games. If they can win the 5 they have left, plus the road game this week against WVU then they’ll have 20 wins with at least 4 Q1 wins. That will have them close, but if they can’t take care of business at home it’s going to be very tough barring a string of road wins. 

UCF: 12-7 (3-4) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-1) SOS: (64) TW’s (2)

The Golden Knights are certainly near the bottom of the watch list but when you have a win over Kansas and a fairly clean resumé you certainly have a path. This is as unbalanced a team as their is in the Power 5, as they’re top-10 defensively but sub-200 on the other end. It’s not a recipe for long term success, but in this Conference there are too many opportunities for massive wins to eliminate a team that has a resumé like this. This is a massive week for their tourney hopes, hosting both Baylor and Oklahoma. To stay alive they have to win at least 1 of those, and maybe 2, as they really can’t afford to drop home games at this stage. They have 6 remaining home games with all of them potentially being Q1. Add 2 road games vs WVU and Oklahoma St that they should win and you could see how they can go on a run and put themselves in position to get in. I’m not predicting it, but the opportunity still exists, and that’s why we’re here. 

---

–Big East–

Locks:

   

On the Right Track:

Creighton: 16-5 (7-3) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (37) TW’s (5)

The Blue Jays are very close, and probably should join the lock group in short order, but they do only have 1 Q1(A) victory. You may ask, really another variation of the quadrants? Well, yes the committee does breakdown Q1 to look at the most elite wins, and Creighton just has the 1 vs Marquette’s 4 for example. It’s really not that big of a knock, but if we’re splitting hairs we’ll go ahead and split em. This group has gotten better and better as the year has gone on though, going 7-1 in their last 8 with the lone loss @ UConn. Based on what I’ve seen I don’t expect them to slow down, but they do host a desperate Butler team that already went to Marquette and won this year. Win that and we’ll probably lock up the veteran Blue Jays.

Teetering:

St. John’s: 13-7 (5-4) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (15) TW’s (4)

Rick Pitino’s first year is going pretty well considering he turned over an entire roster via the transfer portal and now has this team in the field as we enter February. They stopped a 3 game skid with a W over Villanova this past weekend and are now 7-6 in Q1/2 games. They’ve played a very tough schedule which helps them, but they’re barely hanging on to some of these wins as they don’t have the win over an elite team. The best wins are over fellow bubble teams Utah/Providence and Villanova 2x. Any of those teams could fade and lose the shine they appear to have now, so it’s imperative Pitino and co. pick up some more big time wins down the stretch. They have a trip to Xavier upcoming, which is very dangerous, especially with the massive game vs UConn coming right after. It’s a dangerous week where the opportunities are large but if they go 0-2 they could be on the outside looking in. 

Seton Hall: 13-8 (6-4) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (1-3) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (14) TW’s (4)

Shaheen Holloway has done a pretty good job rebuilding this program in his own image and had them sitting pretty at 13-5, playing tough, gritty basketball. They’ve now lost 3 in a row, 2 of which were without their leading scorer Kadary Richmond. They were in the midst of an 8-1 stretch that included wins over UConn and Marquette, when they lost a triple OT thriller to Creighton and their star Richmond in the process. From what I gather he should be back at some point, but they are clearly not quite the same without him, shocker, but lucky for them they get the 2 bottom feeders in the Conference this week to try and buy him some more time to recover. This week it’s just survive and advance, with Georgetown and DePaul on the docket, but they’re going to need to improve that 5-7 Q1/2 record down the stretch if they want to feel comfortable come Selection Sunday. 

Villanova: 11-9 (4-5) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (2-3) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (3) TW’s (4)

The Kyle Neptune era continues to be off to a rocky start, as the influx of talent this year has yet to produce a team that looks anything like the Villanova we had grown accustomed to. They are now in the midst of a 4 game losing streak and own one of the more difficult resumé’s to seed in the Country. On one hand they hold impressive wins over teams like Texas Tech/UNC/Creighton, but on the other hand they have losses to Penn/St. Joe’s/Drexel. Horrific losses, fantastic wins, who are these Villanova Wildcats? Perhaps they don’t even know, and that seems like it may be the problem as we’re used to a Villanova program that is greater than the sum of its individual parts, but we appear to be watching a team of just parts trying to all do it on their own. It’s possible this was just a rough stretch, and they do get 2 home games this week to bounce back so it’s certainly not over. They kick it off with Marquette in what is a pivotal game for their tournament hopes and then host Providence. Sweep the week and we’ll feel much more comfortable about this situation, as you just can’t afford home losses on the bubble. 

Providence: 14-6 (5-4) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (65) TW’s (3)

The Friars were off to a fantastic start this season until star Bryce Hopkins was lost for the season, which sent them into a bit of a free fall as they lost 4 in a row. They’ve bounced back though, thanks in part to a softening of the schedule, but also due to beginning to adjust to life without Hopkins. They are an elite defensive team that really struggles to score the ball, which is not shocking after losing a guy averaging over 15 ppg. Right now they’re hanging their hat on 3 big wins, Wisconsin in the non-conference and Marquette and @ Seton Hall in Conference. The most recent road W over the Pirates flipped them onto the right side of the bubble for me, but man it’s close right now. They played an overall weak schedule prior to Big East play but have plenty of opportunities left down the stretch, including hosting UConn, Creighton, St. John’s and Villanova. This week is an absolute gauntlet though, with trips to UConn and Villanova on tap, so it could look a little more ugly this time next week. In the long run there’s definitely a path, but 5-8 in Q1/2 will have me worried. 

Butler: 13-7 (5-5) — Q1: (2-6) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (43) TW’s (3)

Thad Matta has returned to Butler and has this rag tag group of transfers right in the thick of it in the Big East. They don’t play much defense but they have a group of guys who can really score and have proven they can beat anybody with wins over Texas Tech/Marquette/Villanova. The problem they have right now is just the lack of quality wins, as those 3 alone are not going to be enough to beat out most of these bubble teams, 3-7 in Q1/2 just isn’t going to cut it. They have all the opportunity they could ask for in front of them, so it’s all going to be about knocking off a couple more big dogs in the Conference to work their way into the field. They’ve proven they can win the games they’re supposed to, going 11-1 outside of Q1. They just have the problem similar to Syracuse, gotta beat good teams if you wanna be considered a good team. This week they get to go to Creighton…it’s an opportunity, but good luck. 

---

–Pac-12–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Arizona: 15-5 (6-3) — Q1: (6-3) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (10) TW’s (5)

The Pac-12 is a heaping load of garbage in its final year with us, but at the top they have at least 1 team in Arizona that looks like they should find their way into the dance this year. Tommy Lloyd has built a face paced, offensive minded team in the Gonzaga mold that he helped create behind Mark Few. What he hasn’t brought is consistency though, and that’s what has haunted this Arizona team, as they’ve laid a couple of stinkers that has pumped the brakes on what looked like a clear Conference champion. Losses to Oregon St and Stanford really are causes for concern, especially when you’re talking about a team that lost in the 1st round as a 2 seed a year ago, but I digress. Overall, they have a ton of good wins in the non-conference which is going to more than make up for the couple of eggs they’ve laid thus far. They just need to avoid stepping on another land mine in the next week or two and we can lock this one up, but the previous digression is the main reason we haven’t punched their ticket quite yet. This week is Cal and Stanford at home, time to flex your muscle Zona. 

Teetering:

Utah: 14-7 (5-5) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (17) TW’s (2)

 Utah is pretty solidly in as it stands but they definitely have some work to do if they want to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. First and foremost they need to learn how to win on the road, as they’re now 0-5 in Pac-12 road games, 4 of which were double digit drubbings and the lone tourney team was Arizona. That’s bad. The good news is they racked up impressive wins over BYU/St. Mary’s in the non-conference, but at some point they’re going to need to start adding some quality wins during Pac-12 play. That’s the difficult part though for these Pac-12 teams, you have to win on the road unless you’re playing Arizona or Colorado right now to pick up a Q1 win. Lucky for the Utes, their next 2 games are exactly those 2 at home, starting with Colorado. There’s no guarantee the Buffs stay in the top-35, but it’s a huge game nonetheless as they need some big wins down the stretch. They’re 11-0 at home, so I have little doubt they’ll handle business, but if they don’t things could start to get murkier for Utah. 

Washington St: 15-6 (6-4) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS (84) TW’s (3)

Of all the bubble teams in the Pac-12 this one is the most surprising, as pre-season I didn’t give much attention to Wazzu if we’re being honest. They have my attention now, with wins over Boise St/Utah/Colorado and of course the biggest of all Arizona, they’ve earned a bid at this point in my opinion. The revelation has been the play of redshirt FR guard Myles Rice, who’s scoring over 15 ppg and looking like an all-conference player. The amazing part of his story is he sat out last season as he battled Non-Hodgkin lymphoma. This kid should be a household name for going through that and bouncing back and playing like this in season 1 after being just a 3-star recruit. Where are the professional journalists at? This story is a gold mine. Anyway, despite a disgusting non-conference schedule Wazzu has racked up some big wins in Pac-12 play and now have a real chance to get in if they can handle business the rest of the way. This week is a trip to a desperate rival Washington that kicks off a 3 game road stretch. 

Oregon:  14-6 (6-3) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS (72) TW’s (1)

The Ducks just had their biggest opportunity on the season slip through their grasp as they lost at home to Arizona and now are firmly on the outside looking in with few big time opportunities remaining. They played a very weak non-conference schedule and now the mediocre Pac-12 slate is not providing much for them to build a resumé. They have battled injuries all season, and finally had their starting frontcourt back against Arizona but just couldn’t stop Caleb Love. I still expect the Ducks to reel off some wins, especially now that Dante and Bittle are back in the lineup, it just may be too little too late with what appears to be just 2, maybe 3 Q1 games left, which happen to be the final 3 games of the season. They face an 8 game stretch where if they don’t go at least 7-1 it may be curtains. That’s just life in the Pac-12 this year but with Dana Altman at the helm I’ll never count Oregon out.

Colorado: 15-6 (6-4) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS (77) TW’s (1)

Colorado is a pretty good team if you ask me but they played an extremely weak non-conference schedule and then had to deal with their 5-star FR Cody Williams missing 8 games. I think they can play their way into the field, but as it stands their best win is @ Washington who isn’t on the bubble radar or a home win vs Wazzu who I barely have in the field. It’s a bad resumé, that, as we’ve said over and over again, will be presented with few opportunities in the Pac-12 to be bolstered. The calendar must have 2/10 circled as Arizona comes to Boulder, because their path to an at-large bid goes up in flames if they can’t win the one Q1 home game left on their schedule. Of course, they could go on a tear on the road and get in but excuse me for having little confidence in a team that is just 1-5 in road games this year. This week they head to Utah, a chance to prove me wrong. 

---

–SEC–

Locks: 

On the Right Track:

Kentucky: 15-4 (5-2) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (59) TW’s (2)

This young Kentucky team is, as usual, still trying to figure things out, but to have this record with all of the injuries and poor play at times is pretty impressive. They have regained the health of their frontcourt with Bradshaw, Onyenso and Ivisic now healthy, and FR guards Dillingham, Wagner and Sheppard are all playing better and better. Pair all of that with vets Tre Mitchell and Antonio Reeves and you start to see where the excitement is coming from. However, to this point the resumé isn’t overly strong, although they do own a win over UNC that’s really their only elite win, with another @ Florida rounding out their Q1 victories. It’s time to start stacking wins and building a resumé if you’re Kentucky, and they seem to have the horses to do so, it’s all about taking advantage of the opportunities coming, and boy are they coming. This week they host Florida and then the big one, as Tennessee comes to Rupp Arena in a game that can put this young Kentucky team firmly on the map. We’re going to see what they’re really made of this week.   

Alabama: 14-6 (6-1) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (6) TW’s (3)

Alabama played a ridiculously tough schedule in the non-conference and were sitting just 6-5 in mid-December as they just got beat up by their schedule. Since then they are 8-1, with the lone loss @ Tennessee and have been able to finally win some tough games, most recently vs rival Auburn. Their run and gun style makes them a fun watch, but time will tell if they can play enough defense to keep this hot streak rolling. They have a difficult week as they head to a pesky Georgia team and then host Mississippi St. Going 2-0 in those games is going to go a long way towards making them feel secure, but a slip up at Georgia and you may have to start questioning the resumé as the volume of quality wins isn’t where it needs to be just yet. Should be a 2-0 week, but in college hoops we all know to expect the unexpected. 

Auburn: 16-4 (5-2) — Q1: (0-3) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (67) TW’s (2)

Auburn right now is the statistical darling of the analytics community, ranking top-10 in virtually every power/efficiency ranking system known to mankind. However, they have 0 Q1 wins and their best win is either Ole Miss or Texas A&M at home, both fellow bubble teams. Lest we forget that loss to App St that’s hanging out there as well. Listen, they’ve been dominant against a bad schedule, I understand the metrics, but at the end of the day you have to start beating great teams to be considered a great team. We’re all kind of giving them the benefit of the doubt for now, but at some point the big time wins have to come or this could get dicey. This week they get Vandy at home, might as well be playing a middling Big Sky team, and then head to Ole Miss is what should remain a Q1 opportunity. If they are who we think they are they go 2-0 this week. Time to start proving what the computers are telling us. 

South Carolina: 17-3 (5-2) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (9-0) SOS (100) TW’s (2)

The Gamecocks have definitely been a surprise in year 2 under Lamont Paris and have worked themselves into a pretty solid position as we enter February. Paris landed some key transfers to build around leading scorer Meechie Johnson, and they’ve been good defensively, holding Kentucky to just 62 for example. It’s not a perfect resumé though, with an extremely weak non-conference schedule they will need to continue to pile wins over quality teams in SEC play to stay on course. They have 2 great wins over Kentucky and Mississippi St, but it falls off quickly after that. This upcoming week is really going to test them, as they head to Knoxville to take on Tennessee and then to Athens in a rematch with Georgia who knocked them off earlier this month. Evening it up with Georgia and going 1-1 this week will keep things rolling, as losing to Tennessee is nothing to hang your head about. Go 0-2 though and people might start throwing around the fraud label. Not saying I will, but people might. 

Teetering:

Ole Miss: 17-3 (4-3) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (82) TW’s (2)

Not a lot of people believed in this roster heading into the season, but with Chris Beard at the helm it was foolish to think they wouldn’t be competing for a tourney berth. Beard came in and immediately hit the portal, bringing guys like Allen Flannigan, Jaylen Murray, Brandon Murray, and Moussa Cisse to surround returners Brakefield and Murrell. This man just knows how to coach ball, and while they haven’t quite had the opportunity on their schedule to prove they are as good as their record says they are, it’s coming. They have just 2 Q1 wins to this point, but the most recent win @ Texas A&M proved they belong in the field and as it stands they are firmly in that 8-9 seed range. This week the opportunities come knocking, with both Mississippi St and Auburn coming to Oxford, it’s high time to start cashing in. 

Mississippi St: 14-6 (3-4) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-1) SOS (44) TW’s (4)

Folks in Starkville should be feeling pretty good right now after this group was able to knock off Auburn over the weekend, putting themselves in a much firmer position in the 8-9 seed territory. They still aren’t safe, but with wins over Tennessee and Auburn we can start to move on from those horrific losses to Georgia Tech and Southern in the non-conference. Tolu Smith is back, and his presence inside and leadership is going to be huge for them down the stretch. They are elite defensively, when they want to be, but what makes them better this year than last is they are a couple steps better offensively. The issue has been showing up defensively, as in their last 3 losses they’ve given up 90, 82 and 79. Those were 3 elite offenses, but the Mississippi St of last year was not giving that up to anyone. They bounced back against Auburn, holding them to 58, and now they face a daunting week with 2 road trips, one to rival Ole Miss and then to Bama. Could be a tough week, but find a way to split these and we’re feeling really good.  

Texas A&M: 12-8 (3-4) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (1-3) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (13) TW’s (2)

The Aggies are right there with Villanova in having the most difficult resumé to deal with, as they have 4 Q1 wins but then have some mystifying losses. They hold wins over Iowa St and Kentucky, while also holding losses to Arkansas and LSU. I have no idea what to think about this team, all I know is they absolutely cannot hit a shot from the outside but are the best offensive rebounding team in the Country. They are shooting a pathetic 26.7% from 3 this year. I didn’t know that low of a percentage was possible at this level. You’d think, okay we’re struggling from outside maybe we shouldn’t shoot so many, well they’re actually in the top third of the country in 3 point attempts. Again, mystifying these Aggies are. Either way you slice it, they have the wins to get in, but the bad losses have now put pressure on them to add more and more. They have some time off and then host Florida on Saturday in what feels like a must-win. 

Florida: 14-6 (4-3) — Q1: (0-6) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (37) TW’s (1)

This resumé for Florida is wild, as they’re 14-0 outside of Q1 but 0-6 in those Q1 games. This is as unique a situation as they come, but at the same time so very simple. Just beat someone who matters. It may be easier said than done for Todd Golden and co. though, as they just refuse to play defense and try to outscore everyone they play. Has yet to work out against a good team, and with a difficult week upcoming on the road to Kentucky and A&M, we very well could be looking at them sitting 0-8 in Q1 the next time we meet. They have just 2 home games left that will count as Q1, Auburn and Bama, but even those 2 wins alone might not be enough. They’re going to have to start picking up some wins away from home if they want to hear their name on Selection Sunday. The path is there, but it could start closing up real fast if they don’t get busy. It’s nut up or shut up time for the Gators.  

Georgia: 14-6 (4-3) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS (46) TW’s (1)

I want to be clear I do not believe this Georgia team is a tournament worthy team but as we sit today there is undoubtedly a path for them to prove me wrong. They have put together enough decent wins to have a shot, if they can start to go on a run here. It’s a spectacular turnaround from year 1 to 2 under Mike White, as they’ve been competitive in every game, losing to Tennessee by just 6, Kentucky by 9 and then Florida in OT. They’re battling, and they have another breakthrough opportunity with Bama coming to town this week to actually make this bubble watch appearance a long term thing. Honestly, they should go 2-0 this week if they want to have a chance, with another home tilt vs South Carolina following Bama, it’s an opportunity to go from 4-6 to 6-6 in Q1/2 games. That might be enough to get them from near the bottom to close to in, if not in altogether. Huge week for the Dawgs and their bubble life. 

---

–Mountain West–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Utah St: 18-2 (6-1) — Q1: (1-2) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (117) TW’s (2) 

The Aggies are in a fantastic position to win the regular season title in year 1 under Danny Sprinkle thanks to his work in the transfer portal. He brought with him Great Osobor and Darius Brown from Montana St and then landed Maryland transfer Ian Martinez and Oregon transfer big man Isaac Johnson. It’s an entirely new roster, so for all of that to come together and be sitting at 18-2 is an incredible coaching job by Sprinkle, who should not have surprised me this much after getting Montana St back-to-back NCAA tourney bids. The reason you can’t have this 18-2 team in lock status is that SOS and the lack of big time wins. Their best win to date is probably the most recent @ Boise St, and they beat Colorado St at home, but that’s just not enough when it comes down to it. They’re in a great position, but they’ll have few opportunities to add Q1 wins in the Mountain West. They’ll need some road wins or will rely on beating San Diego St and New Mexico at home. If the train keeps rolling they’ll be in, but the lack of major wins means they can’t afford to slip up. This week they get San Jose St at home then go to San Diego St in a big one for the Conference race. 

San Diego St: 14-4 (5-2) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (52) TW’s (2)

The Aztecs are certainly on the right track but lack the quality wins to feel close to locking up at this point. They have bounced back well after losing a ton of production from last year’s team that made it to the Natty. Jaedon LeDee is back and leading the charge, but what we know about Dutcher teams is they’re going to defend and play hard. That has gotten them to this point, but with their best wins being a down Gonzaga and St. Mary’s they definitely are going to need more. There are plenty of opportunities though, as the Mountain West is probably better overall than the Pac-12 at this point, so they’ll have chances to add to this resumé. It starts this week, with a trip to Utah St and then they welcome Colorado St to town. I doubt they can go 2-0 but if they do we may be able to lock them up, but even a 1-1 week is going to keep them headed in the right direction. 

Colorado St: 13-5 (3-4) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS (88) TW’s (2)

As far as the non-conference goes this Colorado St team had by far the best results in the MW, winning games over Creighton, Colorado and Washington. However, they’re now 0-4 in road contests in Conference play, including a loss to Wyoming who has been pretty bad this year. At one point they were 13-1 and highly ranked, now they’re losers of 4 of their last 6 and starting to slide into more dangerous territory. They are struggling to defend, and while Isaiah Stevens leading you offensively makes you very dangerous, they’re going to continue to lose games they shouldn’t if they can’t get stops. They have a huge opportunity to bounce back with San Diego St coming to Fort Collins this week, which could get them to 4-4 in Q1 which would feel very good. After that is a road game @ Fresno St, where they have to get this road monkey off their back to avoid falling further into the bubble mix. 

Teetering:

New Mexico: 17-3 (6-2) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (168) TW’s (2)

The Lobos are loved by the computers and of late are really starting to put things together. Jaelen House and Donovan Dent are as dynamic a backcourt as there is in the Country and they’re actually defending at a decent level. The major issue here for Richard Pitino is the SOS is the worst of any team on the bubble watch right now. They have played just 6 Q1/2 games, with their best wins being San Diego St and Utah St at home. That’s a solid start, but let’s not forget they sat 18-2 last year and then went on to finish the year just 3-10. It’s one thing to beat up on a weak schedule, but as things continue to ramp up in Conference play we’ll find out just what this group is made of. This week they host Boise St, which will be a chance to add to the quality win total. At this point they are in, but they’ll start getting passed over if they don’t take advantage of the opportunities in front of them. 

Boise St: 12-6 (5-2) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS (74) TW’s (3)

It’s hard to look at this resumé on its face and not just auto have the Broncos in at this point, but many of their 7 Q1/2 wins are barely clinging on, and that home loss to UNLV is lingering out there. This is the 3rd straight year Leon Rice has this Boise St program team in the mix for the tourney which is a fantastic feat for what was a pretty meh program before he arrived. They have an extremely tough stretch upcoming with 3 road games vs New Mexico/Colorado St/Utah St with a home game vs Air Force stuffed between. 1-3 in that stretch is very realistic, which would make things very dicey. If they can split the next 4, I think they’d remain on the right side of the bubble where I have them now. It’s going to be an interesting 2 weeks, but after that the schedule will soften quite a bit so the record should look much prettier a month from now. It’s a long grid, but each and every opportunity is massively important. 

Nevada: 15-5 (3-4) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS (151) TW’s (2)

Steve Alford has done a good job to build something that can sustain year over year after Muss left a burning pile of rubble when he took off for Arkansas. The Wolfpack have been competitive and broke through last year getting to the dance. This year they’ve played well, but against a pretty weak schedule. They do however own 2 pretty solid wins in a neutral court W over TCU and a home win over Colorado St, so it’s a start. They have home games with San Diego St and New Mexico down the road that will be pivotal to getting back again this year. For now, they just need to survive and advance, and that starts with a home game vs San Jose St. Must win this week, especially since they’ve now lost 4 out of 5 in league play after starting 15-1. Need to right the ship as the 4 games after this one are all Q1/2 opportunities. It’s about to get real. 

---

–American–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Florida Atlantic: 15-4 (5-1) — Q1: (3-1) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (5-1) SOS (81) TW’s (2)

The Owls have a pretty solid chance of making the tourney as an at-large right now, even though they’ve been caught sleepwalking through a few games. The big wins over Arizona and Texas A&M in the non-con are going to carry them through, but those losses right after the Arizona game to Florida Gulf Coast and Charlotte are keeping them from a top seed. Obviously, we all know the story, and know how much talent returned from the Final Four team a year ago, it just seems like they’re a little over confident and kind of lacksadalsicle as they go through this American Conference schedule. They play every team close, whether it’s going to OT with UTSA (281st KP) or a last possession win over N. Texas. They’re playing to the level of their competition in a way they didn’t a year ago. That makes you nervous, but the American is pretty trash so they’re able to get away with it. They don’t have a true test until late February when they play SMU and Memphis back-to-back. Can they stay focused enough to avoid disaster? If so, they might get locked up. 

Teetering: 

Memphis: 15-5 (4-3) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (4-2) Q4: (5-0) SOS (76) TW’s (2)

Memphis was looking in great shape a couple of weeks ago as they were 15-2 and rolling through their schedule. Now, they’re in the midst of a 3 game losing streak, all to sub-100 ranked teams including one at home. This team is full of transfers and was a wild roster to begin with, but to start 15-2 made it seem like they all came together to gel seamlessly. Now, you have to wonder what is going on in that locker room, as they’re giving up a ridiculous amount of points and dropping hard and fast down the seed line. They have back-to-back home games vs Rice and Wichita St which absolutely cannot be losses. I would expect them to right the ship, but I also didn’t expect them to lose these 3 in a row. I’m not sure how it’s all going to play out, but the opportunities to bolster your resumé in this Conference are few and far between so dropping any additional games in Q3/4 could sink their at-large chances. 

---

–WCC–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

Saint Mary’s: 15-6 (7-0) — Q1: (3-1) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (2-2) Q4: (8-0) SOS (136) TW’s (2)  

The Gaels got off to a very rough start this year, going 3-5 in their first 8 games, including a home loss to Weber St. They have found their way, going 13-1 since then, returning to the Randy Bennett way of strong defense. However, they’ve done so against a pretty weak schedule outside of the Colorado St win, and does that get wiped away by the loss at home to Missouri St? It’s hard to place this resumé right now, but if we’re splitting hairs I think they have the better shot between them and Gonzaga as it stands today. That makes this weekend even more pivotal as the Gaels head to Gonzaga. Win that and there’s no doubt who the best team in the WCC is. First though, you have to take care of business against a Santa Clara team that already knocked off Gonzaga earlier this year. Big week in the WCC. 

Gonzaga: 15-5 (6-1) — Q1: (0-4) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS (119) TW’s (0)

Well this is a different feeling for Zags fans I’m sure, as this is the first time in a long while that this program is needing work to hope for an at-large bid. They lost a ton from last year, and the transfers Graham Ike and Ryan Nembhard have been good, it’s just the wing players have been abysmal in support. They are 207th in 3 point shooting and are currently the worst rated Gonzaga offense since 2014. They scheduled tough in the non-conference again, but went 0-4 in those Q1 chances and after losing to Santa Clara would likely be on the outside looking in if they were to lose the WCC tourney. However, this season isn’t over, and they’ve reeled off 4 in a row since that bad loss and are staring down a home matchup with fellow WCC favorite St. Mary’s this Saturday. They just have to get through Loyola Marymount and that will setup a massive game in the WCC this weekend. 

San Francisco: 16-6 (5-2) — Q1: (0-5) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (11-0) SOS (195) TW’s (0)

I don’t think San Francisco has much of a shot at this point given their schedule limitations the rest of the way, but with a clean resumé like they have I see a tiny glimmer of hope, so I’ll lay it out for ya. They still have two impact games left vs Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. Win both of those and you have 2 major wins and no bad losses. They also have a road game @ Santa Clara that could squeak into the Q2 territory. They have to be perfect the rest of the way, and if they are I think they’d have a legitimate shot to get an at-large bid. We’ll see if they can pull it off. 

---

–Others–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Dayton: 16-3 (6-1) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (49) TW’s (1)

It would take a couple more losses for this Dayton team to start feeling like they’re in danger of missing the tournament at this point. They played a tough non-conference, beating St. John’s, Cincy and SMU away from home to collect 3 Q1 victories. It isn’t the greatest trio of wins but it’s solid enough when you have no losses outside of Q1. The issue they face is being the hunted in a Conference that offers up no opportunities to add to your resumé. They’ll need to  win damn near every game the rest of the way, being able to afford maybe 1 or 2 more losses max along the way. The good news is when you have a guy as dominant as DaRon Holmes has been it makes life much easier, especially when you’ve surrounded him with a team that’s shooting 39% from 3. They might be the best mid-major out there, and certainly look bound for the NCAA tourney. 

Teetering:

Grand Canyon: 18-2 (9-1) — Q1: (1-1) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (11-0) SOS (261) TW’s (1)

The Antelopes led by Bryce Drew had to make it onto the bubble watch as they’re clinging to a massive road win over San Diego St as their proof of concept. Bryce Drew has done an incredible job plucking this program out of obscurity and building an annual contender, and I would imagine this will be his last year here. But for now, they are looking to push to get into the NCAA tourney and make some waves. It is hard for me to imagine a world where a 29-2 team that loses in their conference tourney doesn’t get in, especially when they have a win vs a current NET top-20 team. Now, if they start adding losses to the resumé in these WAC games it’s going to get tougher and tougher to argue. Hopefully they can just get it done in March and not leave it up to the Selection committee, but for now, they have to be on the radar.