We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. A quick aside before we dive in…we have to once again address Auburn, who continues to look weaker here than any other place you’d look, so many might have questions. Right now they are the clear 4th most trustworthy team, so not bad at all, but most college hoops fans would have them as their favorite to win it all. So why are they 4th and why am I comfortable with that? They haven’t defended consistently, and the main discovery of this entire exercise is being balanced is the key to March success. Interestingly, they have played the 3 teams ahead of them already this year, going just 1-2. They beat Houston (by 5) and lost to Duke and Florida. That’s a pretty good marker right there, and you can see in all 3 of those games they gave up well over 1 point per possession. They are obviously an elite offensive team, but it is clear what the weakness is and it is more of a weakness than those other 3 teams have. It will be interesting to see how they defend Alabama on Saturday night, as they are the 2nd best offensive team. A good performance defensively could see Auburn climb up into a better spot, but another performance like the one against Florida and people may stop questioning why they are just 4th here. Also important to note that in other year’s there might only be 1 other team in the conversation with Auburn, but this year offers up more dominant teams at the top than we’ve seen in several years, so this should not discredit how good Auburn is as much as it highlights how great Duke/Florida/Houston have been.
For those new here, a quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with a whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
Houston and Duke remain the stalwarts in the Elite group, as they continue to play extremely efficient on both ends of the floor. However, we also have a new addition to this group in Florida, fresh off of their upset win @ Auburn they join these 2 at the top of the sport.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
Auburn has fallen again and we now have zero teams in the great category, so down to 3 teams in Elite/Great but all qualifying as Elite now as Florida jumps up, for now.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
Auburn drops to solid once again, as they’ve oscillated up and down the ranks from Elite all the way down to Solid. Defensively they are just not consistent enough to join that group, but they have a huge chance @ Alabama this weekend to improve on that and get a big win. The rest of this group are similar names, with Arizona and Maryland still of note as they are hot and improving.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
We’re down to just the Wildcats, who have fallen from grace after picking up massive wins earlier in the season. Teams like Baylor, Wisconsin, Purdue and Gonzaga have all found themselves here at some point but have made improvements defensively lately, but they’re certainly capable of finishing here if they slip up down the stretch.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
The Johnnies remain our lone grinder, but UCLA is creeping.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
In a week that featured both #1 and #2 going down, my eyes were fixated on bubble matchup after bubble matchup, as teams like Arkansas and Cincy made big pushes to get back in the conversation and teams like Iowa and Stanford missed out on chances to stay relevant. There were moves made all the way up and down the country, but the most surprising might be Kansas St who has gone from complete irrelevance to back in the picture with 5 straight wins including massive ones over Kansas and Iowa St. Last year it was Ohio St, this year it looks to be the Wildcats who are surging late and trying to make a push for an at-large after stinking it up to start the season. We’ve moved to 10 locks now as teams have begun to rack up enough big time wins to be safe, but our eyes remain on the roller coaster rides that are the bubble teams. Just when you think someone is turning a corner they hit a skid, and just when you count someone out they catch fire. That’s the fun of the bubble, and that’s why we meet every Monday, to make sense out of all the chaos that is February/March in college basketball.
So, without further ado, here’s the structure. I’m going to assign teams to 4 groups – Locks, On the Right Track,Teetering and Outside Looking In. Any team left out is not even on the radar. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.
“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, see last year, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.
“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 6-7 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.
“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, to the teams you find on the first 4 or next 4 out lists.
“Outside Looking In” – These are the desperate teams, who are not close to in according to Bracket Matrix, but have enough opportunities to have a path to work themselves in.
For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (NonCon SOS), Q1(A) wins and NET rank. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we are sitting at 60 teams on this weeks watch, but many of those will be missing out. Alright let’s get it. All info as of 2/10. Check out my current bracket projection here.
The Cards handled their business this week, and while they didn’t add anything meaningful to their resumé it was an important week to avoid taking on any damage. Obviously, they are still in a fantastic position, with a 9-6 record in Q1/2 including 4 of the Q1 variety. As I said last week the homestretch for Louisville is all about staying focused and winning games they’re supposed to, as it’s littered with potential bad losses. This upcoming week is no exception, with 2 Q2 road games upcoming they’ll need to stay shard to avoid dropping one or even both, which would make things a little more interesting. I think they still have some comfort room over the true bubble teams, but in the interest of getting locked up and making Selection Sunday a little less stressful, they can just take care of business on the road this week.
It was quite the up and down week for the Tigers, as they couldn’t avoid the lookahead spot, dropping a Q3 game to Georgia Tech at home, only to bounce back and pick up their biggest win of the season when they beat Duke Saturday night. That win over Duke will be the one we remember, and while having that stain on the resumé hurts a little, it was completely made up for and then some. They are now on the doorstep of locking, although with just 3 Q1 wins it’s hard to feel like this resumé is impenetrable, especially with how much damage you can undertake in this conference. They have a hungry UNC team coming to town tonight, and fresh off of a massive win and court storm, I’m looking for that to be a dogfight that could add a 3rd Q2 loss. They then head to FSU, which is one you really should win but they have talent and could offer up yet another Q2 loss. With that said, we’re going to make them do a bit more to earn that lock status, but they should feel really good with that Duke win in their hip pocket.
It was under the radar but the Demon Decons had one of the biggest weeks out of anyone on the bubble. They had 2 very tricky road games, traveling from North Carolina to California and picked up wins over Stanford and Cal. That was absolutely massive, and while it received little to no attention, it was a kind of week that gets you praise in a place such as this. It ultimately amounted to just a Q2/3 win, but that’s a road trip that many bubble teams wouldn’t come out of unscathed. They improved to 6-6 in Q1/2 and by my estimation would be headed to Dayton if the season ended today. Lucky for them the season doesn’t end today, as there are many who still don’t have them in the field so they certainly can’t feel comfortable. They have a giant opportunity this weekend as they go to SMU with a chance to pick up their 2nd Q1 win. They’ll have to pull off what Clemson couldn’t and avoid the lookahead, as they first host FSU, but if they can go 2-0 this week they would be in a much better position, potentially avoiding Dayton altogether when we meet next week. SMU/Wake, Saturday night, a game with massive bubble implications.
The Tar Heels took the first step in keeping themselves alive, albeit by the skin of their teeth as Pitt had their chances late but ultimately UNC picked up the Q2 win. They are still just 6-9 in Q1/2 with just the 1 win over UCLA to hang their hat on. Based on that I wouldn’t think anyone worth their salt would have them in the field right now, but they’re just 1 big win away from that being a much more convincing argument. They have an opportunity to do just that with a trip to Clemson tonight who undoubtedly spent all weekend celebrating their takedown of Duke. The Tar Heels need this one, and I would dare say they have to have this one if they want to get an at-large bid. They have just 1 remaining Q1 game after this one tonight with Duke coming to Chapel Hill in the final game, so after this one they’ll need to rip off 6 wins in a row anyway as it’s a very soft schedule. At 21-10 they would be in a decent spot, so that’s what we’re looking for, as a loss to drop them to 1-10 in Q1 might just be too much to make up for.
I called Pitt’s home meeting with Virginia a “get right game” last week, and boy did they fail to do that, dropping an inexplicable one to the Hoos to pick up a Q3 loss. They extended their bad stretch with a narrow loss @ UNC later in the week and have now dropped 7 of 9 after starting the year 12-2. They are pretty firmly on the outside right now, with just a 4-8 Q1/2 record they have a very narrow path left to an at-large bid. They have 2 remaining Q1 chances, with their trip to SMU on deck being the first, with a trip to Louisville later in the year being the only other one. I am going to call this trip to Dallas a must-win for the Panthers, as I don’t like their chances in Louisville nearly as much. They are simply not going to get in the dance on their own merit with just 1 Q1 win, so this trip west is their lifeline right now, as they desperately need to pick up a quality win and end this losing streak.
This SMU resumé is going to be very interesting as we move forward, as it is more akin to one of the mid-major teams we are tracking than what we would typically see in the ACC. They have played just 4 Q1 games and in each of those they got blown out, and while they continue to dominate in games outside of Q1, it’s hard to ignore how bad they’ve been against good teams. The metrics like them more than a Wake Forest for example, mostly because they tend to get hot and blow teams out, but with 0 elite wins to hang their hat on it’s tough to include them in March. There’s a good chance down the stretch they play 0 more Q1 games, with Clemson at home being the closest after their win over Duke. They won @ VA Tech this week but another Q3 win does nothing for them, but home games with Pitt/Wake/Clemson are the games I’m circling. Either way I think they’re in a similar position as UNC where they need to essentially win out to have a good feeling about their chances. 2 Q2 home games are on deck this week, which they absolutely have to have.
Sparty dropped their 2nd Big Ten game as they lost to UCLA earlier in the week, but did bounce back in their return home as they beat Oregon. Of course it wasn’t without drama, as they were down 14 at half to the Ducks, but played with their hair on fire in the 2nd half to comeback and win by 12. They are right on the doorstep of locking, but with just 5 Q1 wins, 1 of which is barely hanging on (Rutgers), I’m still hesitant to lock just yet. They finish the season with 7 straight Q1 games after the home game vs IU on Tuesday night this week. While I don’t expect them to lose 7 straight games, if they did and Rutgers falls just 4 spots in the NET then we could be looking at a team that’s 4-11 in Q1. All I want to see from them is to pick up 1 more Q1 win down the stretch to make this thing comfy and ease my fears. For reference, the 2 locked Big 10 teams have 7 Q1 wins each, so asking for a little more from the Spartans at this juncture is completely fair, especially with the mediocre SOS numbers and such a tough stretch upcoming. They’ll get their first shot @ Illinois this weekend, but of course will also need to handle the Hoosiers at home first.
The Bruins are white hot right now, winners of 7 straight after that tough stretch in January that saw them lose 5 of 6. They picked up a massive Q1 win over Michigan St this week to bring them up to 6, and the win over Penn St added a Q2 win to lift them to 10-6 in Q1/2, a strong resumé. It has helped that the furthest they’ve had to travel over this stretch is to Washington, but regardless winning 7 in a row in a conference this deep is impressive no matter how you slice it. Mick Cronin was the recipient of some criticism during that stretch, but credit to him for pushing the right buttons to get his team to respond and up their level of play. They now have to hit the road again though, heading back to the midwest to play both Illinois and Indiana. Both of those environments are tough, and it’s certainly possible this could be an 0-2 week, although IU is really struggling right now. If they can find a way to nab one of these this week that would give them 7 Q1 wins which might be enough for me to lock them up.
It might be officially panic time in Eugene as the Ducks have now lost 5 in a row and 6 out of 7 overall as they’ve gone from looking like one of the best teams in the conference to now being just 5-8 in Big 10 play. They still have the 7 Q1 wins thanks to a stellar non-con schedule that included wins over Alabama and A&M, two top 15 teams. However, after losses to both Michigan and Michigan St they’ve fallen to 9-8 in Q1/2 games, and with how badly they’ve played it’s hard to have confidence they’ll turn it around. They do get a reprieve with the schedule though, as they return home to play Northwestern and Rutgers, 2 teams they should beat. However, they did just lose to Nebraska at home so it’s hard to expect them to win any game at this point. They need to get this train back on the tracks, and this is as good of a 2 game stretch as you can ask for in this conference to get right. No more messing around or this might get hairy.
It was a pretty ho-hum week for the Terps, although they did almost pull off a 6th Q1 win in Columbus, but a late Bruce Thornton 3 sealed that one up. They bounced back though to beat Rutgers at home and are now 8-6 overall in Q1/2, putting themselves still on the same track. They have probably the easiest remaining schedule of anyone in the conference, with 4 out of 7 at home and just 4 Q1 games. Still of course isn’t easy, but considering others have 7 Q1 games left they should feel fortunate they get to play Iowa/USC/Northwestern at home as we close things out. They feel like they’re approaching lock status given that, but at just 5 Q1 wins we aren’t going to go there just yet. Also, they have a trip to Nebraska up next, so they could drop to below .500 with a loss there, and will return home to play a struggling Iowa team that will just be a Q2 game. They’ll likely still be here next week, as a 1-1 split feels like an inevitability, but a win @ Nebraska could bring them much closer to locking.
Michigan had a very strong week, beating Oregon at home and then going on the road and beating a desperate IU team. They improved to 10-5 in Q1/2 games, and while they lack the Q1 wins as compared to their Big 10 counterparts, they are going to get plenty of chances down the stretch with 7 out of their last 8 being Q1, with just 3 road games. That sets up what could be a massive run, as if they can just win their home games they could pick up 4 more Q1 games and move to 9 Q1 wins which would push them much higher on the seed list. It will start this week as they host Purdue, a chance to pick up another Q1(A) win but also a chance to pass the Boilers in the Big 10 standings. If Dusty May can come to Ann Arbor and win the Big 10 in year 1 that would be an incredible achievement, especially considering the fact he had to rebuild the entire roster. What a massive opportunity on Tuesday night for the Wolverines, and it’s followed by a trip to rival Ohio St. Huge week for their season overall not just the resumé.
At this point it’s hard to really know who Illinois is as a team, as you can see them look like one of the best team’s in the conference and the next night out they’ll lay an egg. They have an insane amount of talent, it’s just not nearly consistent enough right now. That was on full display this week as they lost to Rutgers, giving the Scarlet Knights some life, but then went to Minnesota and dismantled the Gophers. You just don’t know which team is going to show up night in and night out, but so far they’ve done enough good to feel pretty comfortable resumé wise. They have 2 gigantic Q1 opportunities this week at home, with both Michigan St and UCLA coming to Champaign. They could make this an open and shut case if they can pick up both of those of those wins, as getting to 8 Q1 wins seems like more than enough to get them in. It’s important to note though they do finish with 6 out of 7 as Q1 games, so they need to buckle down and find some consistency or they may take more lumps down the stretch.
They did exactly what I said they needed to do this past week, picking up a major win over Maryland at home and then dropping one @ Nebraska. Of course you’d like that road win but our message to them since the road Penn St win was just to handle their business at home and they’d get in. So far so good, and they’ll return home for 2 more games this week, with Washington up first, followed by rival Michigan. The latter is of course a much bigger game, and gives them the chance to add a 6th Q1 victory. It’s also their final Q1 chance at home, so they really, really need to pick this one up and I would dare say their at-large chances hinge on this one. They obviously could lose and then win some road games, but asking them to do that is asking a lot, so just handle your business at home Buckeyes, make it easy on yourselves. The best part about tracking bubble teams though, it rarely goes to plan.
What a roller coaster ride this has been for the Cornhuskers over the last month or so, as now after enduring a 6 game losing streak they’ve flipped the script, ripping off 4 wins in a row to position themselves back in the field pretty solidly. The win @ Washington to start the week lifted them above .500 in Q2 and then they added yet another Q1 win when they took down Ohio St at home to cap off yet another solid week. They’ve added 4 Q1/2 wins in a row now, taking them from out of the field to as high as a 8 or 9 seed. What a run, and it can continue this week as Maryland is coming to Lincoln on Thursday, presenting them with a chance to move to 6-6 in Q1. That is followed by a trip to Northwestern, yet another Q1 chance that could, in a perfect world, get them up to 7-6 in Q1 and make this feel far more safe than you ever would have thought just a couple of weeks ago. What a ride, we’ll see if they can keep it going or if we’re in for yet another turn.
Well it was a bit of a disappointing week for Muss and co. as they lost both road chances against Northwestern and Purdue. They were both Q1 losses, and they were without their best player in Desmond Claude so I don’t think it’s a reflection of there ability, as it’s hard enough to win on the road in the Big 10 much less without your best player. However you slice it though those were two major opportunities that they failed to land, and now they head home for 2 must-win games with Penn St and Minnesota coming to LA. This is a reprieve, as this is as about as friendly a week as you can get in this conference, so they have to handle their business to stay in this thing. Big picture with 8 regular season games left they have 4 at home, and they likely have to go at minimum 5-3 to stay in the hunt, although going 6-2 might be more realistic if they want to be in the field. That means winning at least 1 or 2 of their road games, which is why I thought that Northwestern game was so important. All of that is moot though if you don’t go 2-0 this week, so it’s nut up or shut up time for the Trojans, here’s hoping Claude is back in short order.
Things have completely unraveled on IU’s season now, with their at-large hopes on life support as HC Mike Woodson declared his retirement at the end of the season, likely in lieu of being fired on the spot after the blowout loss to Wisconsin. They followed up that result, and news, with a close loss to Michigan, which makes it now 5 straight and 7 out of 8 Big 10 losses, and while we’ve seen periods of fight shown it looks like the Hoosiers season is all but over. They still cling to some life though, with so many chances and such a clean resumé outside of Q1 you can’t pull the plug on them just yet. They head to Michigan St next, so no rest for the wicked, but after that are 3 straight home games, with 2 of them being Q1. That is their last gasp, as they need to reel off all 3 of those to keep themselves alive. That would move them to 4-11 in Q1, which still probably wouldn’t be good enough but it would at least be close, with a home game with Ohio St still left as a good chance to get to 5 Q1 wins. That has to be the message from Woodson, and while I have zero faith in his ability to rally any sort of troops, you would think at some point both players and coaches would have some pride. So, they can either roll over and die or fight. We’ll see what they choose.
Houston has been playing without Emmanuel Sharp, and grinding out two wins this past week showed how much they miss his shot making. They beat dreadful Oklahoma St by just 9 at home and then pulled away late from Colorado on the road to win by just 10. Most will be surprised to see them not locked, and it likely will come in short order, as Sharp is expected to return tonight vs Baylor, but with just 4 Q1 wins and 7 of 8 to close the season as Q1 this resumé could radically change over the upcoming weeks. They are obviously a very good team, but a la Michigan St they are going to double the amount of Q1 games on the resumé over the next month. It starts vs Baylor tonight and then they have a very tough one with a trip to Arizona after that. I don’t expect them to go 0-2, but I didn’t expect them to lose at home to Texas Tech either so I’m going to make them earn it just a little more before we lock this one up. They are still the same Houston team, this resumé is just lagging behind.
Arizona is as hot as anyone in the country right now, and after going 0-5 in Q1 games in 2024, they have completely flipped the script in 2025, going 7-1 in such games since the calendar turned. They avenged their lone loss in that category on Saturday, taking down Texas Tech at home to push themselves to the doorstep of locking. The emergence of Henri Veesar has been vital to their success, and while the backcourt gets the attention he and Awaka dominating the interior has been the key to this turnaround. What keeps me from doing it is they have a very difficult 3 game stretch upcoming, with a trip to a hot K-State team trying to claw their way back to relevancy up first. After that is a home game with Houston who is always difficult to beat, making for a week that could easily cool this thing off real quick. If they do in fact go 0-2 they then have to go to Baylor to start off next week, so 3 Q1 games that could keep them from getting locked if they fail to capitalize. With how they’ve been playing I don’t expect that to happen, but this will be a big test to see if they truly are a top-10 team like many of the metrics are now showing them to be.
Kansas continues to be a bit of a disappointment this year, coming in as the preseason #1 and after another Big 12 loss they’re just 7-5 in Conference play. The loss to Kansas St on Saturday was yet another disappointment, in a string of such results as they’re just 2-3 over their last 5. Of course, in true 2025 Kansas fashion that loss followed a massive win over Iowa St, so trying to figure out this Kansas team continues to be a difficult task. While they have plenty of winnable games on the schedule coming up, they are certainly not a lock to not completely unravel, even with arguably one of the most talented rosters in the country. They also have 4 more Q1 chances, but if that goes sour they could be sitting just 5-10 in Q1, so this thing certainly isn’t a wrap just yet. They have two more games that should be massive wins, but we’ve seen them play down to lesser competition, so seeing them handle Colorado and Utah with ease would provide some confidence they can fulfill their potential at some point.
The Red Raiders extended their win streak to 7 Tuesday night with a comfortable win vs Baylor, but had it snapped late on Saturday as they fell @ Arizona. Not a bad week at all, but the resumé overall still isn’t overly strong, as shown by their 24th ranking in WAB. They certainly should feel safe right now, and having 6 Q1 wins is a huge bonus, but that 1-2 Q2 record is stinky and the horrific NCSOS is going to continue to be the black stain on this resumé. Their week upcoming could help them with that Q2 record though, as they host Arizona St and then travel to Oklahoma St, giving them the opportunity to flip that to 3-2 and overall 9-5 in Q1/2. That would make this thing much more comfortable with just 6 games to play, and with 2 more Q2 games around the corner they could rip off 4 in a row and be locked up before we get to March.
Baylor is just kind of surviving right now, as they got handled pretty easy by Texas Tech but bounced back to beat UCF handily at home. That’s pretty ho-hum if you ask me, as they aren’t really improving their stock but they’re preventing themselves from feeling like they’re in too much trouble. They’re hovering around the 8-9 seed line, and with the 2 elite wins over Kansas and St. John’s (miracle W btw) they have a pretty big edge on many of the bubble teams. They have another week where a 1-1 split will keep them right where they are, as they head to Houston and then host WVU. I would not expect them to beat Houston, but a win there would really catapult them. The real test will be the matchup with the Mountaineers, as they have proven they can win on the road with wins already over Kansas/Cincy on the road in Big 12 play. They need to at least hold serve at home to keep themselves from falling to the real cut line, but believe you me we’ll be singing a different tune if they lose both games this week, so that game Saturday is ultra important.
West Virginia: 15-8 (6-6) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 15 (58) Q1(A): (4-3) NET (38)
West Virginia is playing an interesting game, as it feels like much of the hay is in the barn as they have 4 Q1(A) wins and are merely trying to not blow it. They took a step toward blowing it this week as they lost @ TCU to fall below .500 in Q2 games. They bounced back in a can’t lose spot to beat Utah at home, but things are obviously looking shaky in Morgantown as they’ve now gone just 4-4 over their last 8. In terms of remaining schedule’s their last 8 games might be easier than anyone else in this conference, with just 3 remaining Q1 games, so they have a chance here to finish very strong and allow those elite wins to carry them to an at-large bid. However, if they do drop all 3 of those, and enter at 5-9 in Q1 and add some more Q2 losses then it’ll start getting interesting. They have BYU at home this week followed by a trip to Baylor. A split keeps them right on track and helps even up that Q2 record, but if they go 0-2 the bracketologists of the world are going to start asking themselves just how much those 4 elite wins can carry WVU. A massive bubble tilt on Tuesday night vs BYU is what that means, as the Cougs are desperate themselves for a big win.
A big swing and a miss is what this past week was for BYU as they blew a major opportunity at home, losing to Arizona and then went on the road and got dog walked by a Cincy team that had really been struggling. I thought it could be a week where they went 2-0 and put themselves on the map, but now, in my opinion, they are firmly out of this thing. Bracket Matrix still shows some folks having them in, although that’s more to do with updates needing to be done, so I would stand pretty firm that at just 5-8 in Q1/2 with only 2 Q1 wins they are not in the field right now. Either way it’s close, as I have them in my First 4 Out, so the chances this week to beat WVU on the road or K-State at home would both be massive. I think they at least have to beat the Wildcats at home, but they have been playing really well of late, including winning @ Iowa St and beating Kansas, so it’s not going to be as easy as the quadrant system suggests (barely Q2). If they fall to just 5-10 in Q1/2 it’s going to be hard to recover from, so finding a way to grind one out this week is of the utmost importance.
The train is officially off the tracks now for UCF, as they’ve lost 4 in a row and 5 of 6, going just 3-8 after starting 10-2 on the season. This weeks home loss to Cincy was particularly brutal, as it dropped them to 0-3 in Q2 games, a record that no at-large team can have. The wins over Texas Tech and A&M feel like a lifetime ago, and while the schedule softens as we enter the homestretch it feels like this weeks matchup with Iowa St coming to Orlando is their last gasp. They are going to get chances to even up that Q2 record, so there’s work left to do, but picking up a 4th Q1 win is going to be the first step toward salvaging this thing. After that they head to Colorado in a game that will help them clean up the Q2 record as we said, so it feels like a must-win week. While dropping to 3-8 in Q1 won’t eliminate them, it would put them in a position that feels like they have to win out the rest of the way. It’s a narrow path but it’s still there, and it almost HAS to include this home win over Iowa St. It’s nut up or shut up time for the Knights.
Like a Phoenix rising from the ashes Cincy appears to have been reborn and is back in the thick of this thing. They endured a tough 4 games losing stretch and overall had lost 8 of 10 when I axed them from the watch last week. They responded, winning both @ UCF and then at home vs BYU. That added 2 more wins in Q1/2, with the former barely sliding in to give them their first Q1 win. They are still not in the field, don’t get me wrong, but they do now sit at 7-9 in Q1/2 which keeps them very much in the conversation at least. This week they get Utah at home which is a must-win game and then they head to Iowa St which will be a very difficult game to pull off. They need to just stay on track, as going 1-1 is the bare minimum right now to stay in the conversation. They have just 1 home game left that will be Q1, Baylor, so winning that is paramount and they’re likely going to need to find a way to steal a road game that’s Q1. That would be 1 of their trips to Iowa St/WVU/Houston. So, I’m looking for wins vs Baylor and @ WVU as their most likely path to getting in, with just 2 losses to Iowa St/Houston. Not sure it’ll be enough but that will give them a fighting chance. What a ride for Bearcats fans, after being top-25 pre-season to fighting for your bubble lives.
The Sun Devils are in an absolute free fall, and while they still have those 3 Q1 wins to hold on to, they’re losing their grip on any sort of hope they had at getting in the dance. The most recent loss to Oklahoma St may end up being the final nail in the coffin, but with the wins they have over St. Mary’s/New Mexico/WVU all away from home they are somehow still alive. They have played one of the toughest schedule’s in the country and it’s not going to slow down. They next head to Texas Tech and the are back home to play TCU. The TCU game is a win or go home type of game, as you assume they lose to Tech on the road, so losing to TCU would drop them below .500 and extend the losing streak to 5. They are one big win away from jumping right back into this thing, but it’s hard to trust a team that has been playing so poorly to figure it out. They may be in a better situation resumé wise than K-State, but clearly they are playing worse basketball and heading in a completely different direction. Still time to turn it around, but it’s not going to be easy.
Let’s be clear, the Wildcats still have a ton of work to do if they want to get themselves legitimately in the conversation. However, they clearly have turned a corner and are playing like a tourney quality team, reeling off 5 wins in a row including the massive wins over Iowa St and Kansas. They’ve gathered all 3 of their Q1 wins in their last 3 games and have another massive one this week as they host Arizona. That would give them a 4th Q1 win and lift them to 6-9 in Q1/2, which would bring them even closer to that Next 4 Out group. Yes, they would still have work to do, but with how they’ve been playing I have no doubt they can continue to rack up wins. They have to go to BYU after the Zona matchup, so a tough week but they went to Arizona St and hosted Kansas last week which is almost as difficult and they went 2-0, so anything is possible when you’re this hot. They have 5 more Q1 games total with 7 of the final 8 being Q1/2. The path is most certainly there, and while it would be a heck of a feat to pull off, they’ve already done a lot of the heavy lifting. Just have to keep plugging away.
–Big East–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
St. John’s: 21-3 (12-1) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (6-0) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 73 (148) Q1(A): (1-1) NET (20)
St. John’s just had about as big of a week as you can possibly have, and considering they entered the week with just 1 Q1 win it was absolutely massive. They first nocked off Marquette at home, but more impressively they went on the road and beat UConn to push themselves to 3-3 in Q1 and 9-3 in Q1/2 games. They desperately needed to prove they belong at the top of the sport, and did so with this statement week. You may be asking, then why not locked? Well they are in a similar position as Houston, as the low number of Q1 wins limits them and also leaves them exposed if they drop a few down the stretch. Now, they’d have to drop far more than a few to really find themselves in trouble, but it’s not exactly an easy road upcoming as they have to travel to Villanova and then host a red hot Creighton team. This is the week that can confirm their lock status, as another 2-0 week would make this an open and shut case, and by the way would start pushing them up towards the 2 seed range. Quite the turnaround for Pitino, who seems to be relishing in his role in bringing St. John’s back to national relevancy.
The Jays have now won 9 in a row, with the best win of that stretch coming on Saturday when they beat Marquette. That followed an impressive road win over Providence, and they now sit alone in 2nd and just 1 game back of St. John’s in the Big East. It’s been a fantastic turnaround, as they really struggled early in the season trying to gel these transfers, and then losing Pop Isaacs to injury. They are rolling now though, with the trio of Ashworth, Neal and Kalkbrenner leading the show they are now a very dangerous team, and have built a resumé that has them pretty safely in the field right now. They are going to continue to get chances to prove that, as this week they host UConn and then head to St. John’s. That’s as tough a week as it gets, so if they stumble a bit I won’t be shocked. The schedule eases up after that, with only a trip to Xavier left as a difficult game after this week. If they go 2-0 they’ll be pushing lock status, even an 0-2 week would leave them 11-8 in Q1/2 games, plenty good enough to still be safely in the field. Important measuring stick week, but in terms of their at-large chances it shouldn’t hurt them too much if they slip up.
UConn has a pretty unique resumé all things considered, and that was furthered this week as they lost at home to St. John’s. They now have a better Q1(A) record than every other quadrant aside from Q4, pretty odd, but their propensity to play to the level of their opponent has made them must watch TV, regardless of who they’re playing. I thought they would beat the Johnnies, but with another loss they still sit somewhere in the 8-9 seed range. They finally got McNeeley back from injury, but it wasn’t enough offensive punch to get through St. John’s suffocating D. They now have to hit the road to play Creighton on Tuesday, a team that is red hot and presents a difficult cover with Kalkbrenner inside. After that is an easy W with a trip to Seton Hall, so while they may split the week that is only going to put them in a worse position if they fall to 8-7 in Q1/2 games with a bad loss out there as well. They still will be in fine position, but looking ahead they have just 1 Q1 home game left with Marquette coming in March, so finding a way to not lose ugly games is going to be crucial the rest of the way.
I said that a loss @ Villanova would be a death blow, and it may end up being that, but we’re going to keep Xavier on the radar for now. They are just 1-8 in Q1 games, not good enough, but they have the opportunity to finish the season with 7 straight wins, with the Creighton game at home teetering on Q1 right now. They need Creighton to stay hot and get into the top-30, and then beat them. The rest of their games they should be easily favored, with the trip to Providence maybe being the toughest test. If they can finish 21-10 and 13-7 in the Big East they are going to have a chance, especially if UConn or Creighton can get into the top-30 as that would add a Q1 win to the resumé. It’s not going to be easy, and going on a 7 game win streak to just stay alive certainly isn’t much to hang on to, but in the world of bubble all you can ask for is a chance. That’s their path right now, however narrow and difficult it may seem.
UK continued their rough stretch when they went to Ole Miss and got dominated. They gave up 98 points to the Rebels, highlighting their inability to defend and giving them what was ultimately their 4th loss in 5 games. They were able to bounce back and beat S. Carolina, but that didn’t add much as it was just a Q3 win, so we’re looking forward as they enter just 7-7 in Q1/2. Now, that is a much stronger 7-7 given 6 of those are Q1(A) wins, so they by no means are in trouble, but with such a tough stretch upcoming they can’t be locked just yet. They have the rematch with Tennessee up next, and you can bet the Vols are going to be coming into Rupp with revenge on their mind so that will not be easy. They then head to Texas who will be hungry for a big time win, and can really fill it up if you don’t guard. I genuinely don’t know what to expect from this Kentucky team, so I’m definitely going to be slow to lock them. If they go 2-0 this week it’s a wrap, but I have little faith that will be the result.
Ole Miss: 18-6 (7-4) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 13 (86) Q1(A): (2-5) NET (22)
Ole Miss picked up a gigantic win when they took down Kentucky this week at home, dominating them from the opening tip. They almost got caught with their pants down in the following game, but scrambled to comeback and beat LSU with a tip in at the buzzer. With that win they’ve now won 3 out of 4 after dropping 3 straight, so they’ve gotten back on track and are starting to get close to locking up. They are still below .500 in Q1, but do have 5 total Q1 wins, so they really just need 1 or 2 more quality wins to make this an open and shut case. This week will only offer up Q2 chances though, with a trip to S. Carolina up next and then a home tilt with rival Mississippi St. I don’t think they can rise to the level of lock even with a 2-0 week, but that will help them stay right on track as they sit somewhere in the 4 to 5 seed range and are looking really solid. A loss isn’t going to sink them, but it would certainly delay the lock a little bit. Either way, a pretty ho-hum stretch for the Rebels as they gear up for a brutal last 5 games.
Mizzou had a little bit of a reality check this week, as they went 0-2 in close games @ Tennessee and then vs Texas A&M. They only lost by a combined 7 points, so it wasn’t like they were totally embarrassed, but after Florida/Ole Miss/Miss St you were starting to wonder if they were a true contender in the SEC. They still are in a great position but were exposed a little bit as just a step behind the upper tier in this conference. It’s still an unbelievable turnaround by Dennis Gates after last year’s debacle, and they are by no means a lost cause. They next host Oklahoma and then go to Georgia, giving them 2 very winnable games that could take them from just 6-6 in Q1/2 games to 8-6 if they can nab them both. The home tilt with Oklahoma feels like one they need in order to bounce back, but the trip to Athens will be tricky, especially with Georgia desperate to pick up a Q1 win. So long as they can pick one of those up they’ll stay on track, but with just 6 Q1/2 wins a couple of losses could send them spiraling down into teetering territory.
State played just once since we last met and it was a huge bounce back win @ Georgia to quiet the feelings of a collapse that were building last week as they had lost 5 out of 7. They’re still just 3-5 in their last 8, but that kind of win on the road in the SEC is one that will surely provide some confidence as they are in the midst of an 8 game stretch that are all Q1 games. They are just 1-2 so far, but they return home to play Florida who will be fresh off of that huge win over Auburn, so a prime letdown spot for the Gators which gives State a huge chance to pick up a Q1(A) win. They follow that up with a trip to rival Ole Miss, so this week is very difficult but also provides two massive chances, as a 2-0 week would move them to 7-5 in Q1 and be on the doorstep of locking. That’s asking a lot, as Florida looks dominant right now and going to Oxford won’t be easy. Dropping to 5-7 might have them more towards teetering than I thought they would ever be a month ago, but that feels more likely than a sweep. Wide range of outcomes here, so we’ll see what they can do.
Another brutal week as the Sooners continue their slide as they are now just 3-7 in SEC play after going 13-0 in the non-con. Their wins over Arizona/Michigan/Louisville are going to keep them alive for a while, but if they keep dropping Q1 games they are eventually going to fall all the way out of the field. 7 of their final 8 games are Q1, so there’s a world where they are sitting something like 6-11 or even 5-12 in Q1 and at that point they would be in real trouble I would guess. I have no idea what the rest of the bubble is going to do, but I would think getting to at least 6 Q1 wins will be necessary, with 7 being more likely to have them pretty safely in. As of now they’re drifting down toward the 9 or 10 seed range, so it’s already getting dicey. They next have to travel to a good Mizzou team, a likely loss, and then host LSU in one that is a must-win that doesn’t add much to the resumé. It’s time for the Sooners to lock in, or they could find themselves quickly on the outside looking in if the next couple of weeks don’t go well.
The Longhorns had a tough week, no way around that, as they lost at home to Arkansas and then went on the road to Vandy and lost another. That’s now 3 out of 4 L’s, and at just 6-8 in Q1/2 they are nowhere close to safely in, and while they likely would be in today with one or two more losses that could easily flip. They have very little room for error now, and will be faced with 2 very difficult games this week as they host Bama and Kentucky. It presents them with unbelievable opportunities to pick up big time wins, but dropping to 3-9 in Q1 would drop them down to Dayton at the best most likely. With that being said it feels like they have to find a way to win one of these this week, as they are the final Q1 home games left for them. It feels like it’s now or never for the Longhorns, time to capitalize or potentially fade into obscurity.
One of the surprises of the season continues to hold serve, as they dropped one on the road to Florida, no shame there, but bounced back to beat Texas at home. They have been very good in Nashville so far this year, but I’m not sure if they’re good enough to take on the storm that’s about to come as the Auburn Tigers, fresh off a loss to Florida, are incoming on Tuesday. I would expect Auburn to come out with a vengeance, something I don’t think this Commodore team has enough to handle. They then have to go on the road to their in-state rival Tennessee, an absolutely nightmarish week for a team that is barely clinging on to a spot in the field right now. We’ll assume they drop to just 2-7 in Q1 and 6-8 in Q1/2, that would likely either land them in the Last 4 In/First 4 Out groups. Obviously a win in either game and they’re feeling great, but they do still have home matchups with Mizzou/Ole Miss that could still help them stay in the field. Those are the one’s I’m circling, even if they do lose both this week the path will still be there, but the pressure will mount.
With just a 2-6 record over their last 8 games the Dawgs are beginning to unravel, as those 2 wins are over the bottom 2 teams in the conference at home, so the resumé has been taking hit after hit without adding anything. The good news is they don’t have any bad losses, and they do have 3 more home games that are going to be prime opportunities to add to their resumé. This most recent loss also happened to be one of those chances as well though and they failed to capitalize, so I’m not feeling too confident they can make a run here and stay in this thing. They next have to go to A&M which is brutal, but after that they host Mizzou in what feels like an absolute must-win. If they go 0-2 they will be out of it, and will have a trip to Auburn around the corner. Things could very much go from bad to worse this week, so that matchup with Mizzou feels like a season defining game as we charge through February.
After all of the bad that went on in January, the Razorbacks have gotten themselves back into this thing. They followed up their big road win over Kentucky with another road win over Texas, before falling at home to an elite Alabama team by just 4. They have clearly figured some things out since Boogie Fland went down, and while it’s crazy to suggest losing your leading scorer makes you better it seems to have forced other guys to step up and they have found success in their new roles. Ivisic and Johnell Davis have both been instrumental, as both have notched 20+ point games during this little run. They still don’t have a great resumé, but with 3 Q1(A) wins they have given themselves a chance, and they have 4 very winnable home games left on the schedule plus a road trip to S. Carolina. Finishing 5-3 would certainly put them in the conversation, and could definitely be enough to get them in. That is very attainable, and seems more likely than a few of the other teams ahead of them right now going on a run. Things are looking up for Calipari and Co.
There’s not much to say about this Utah St team after this past week, as they went 2-0 but added just a Q3 and 4 win to the resumé. 5 of their final 7 games are going to be Q1/2, with both this next week falling in those quadrants. They first host Colorado St in a Q2 chance and then they head to New Mexico for the revenge game. There’s no reason they should lose at home, so at worst they will split this week and still be pretty safely in the field at 8-4 in Q1/2. If they can pick up both wins then you’ll start feeling more certain they are going to find themselves safe come Selection Sunday. That would also tie them with the Lobos atop the Mountain West, so on Sunday there will be a ton up for grabs when they travel to New Mexico. They need to avoid the lookahead spot, but I expect a massive matchup on Sunday in the Mountain West.
New Mexico: 19-4 (12-1) — Q1: (2-1) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (8-1) SOS: 87 (64) Q1(A): (2-1) NET (36)
The Lobos stayed hot this week, growing their win streak to 6 with blowout wins over Colorado St and Air Force. They have what should be another blowout win up next as they host Wyoming, but it’s the following game all eyes should be on as Utah St is heading into Albuquerque looking to avenge their home loss a few weeks ago. That game will have massive implications in the Mountain West conference race, so I will certainly be tuning in, and a win by either team will help the resumé as well. Including that game they finish with 4 chances down the stretch to add to their Q1/2 record, which sits at an impressive 8-2 right now. They’ve needed all those wins after taking on 2 very bad losses, but I would expect them to be safely in the field as long as they can win 2 of those games.
San Diego St: 14-6 (8-4) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 61 (9) Q1(A): (1-2) NET (52)
The Aztecs dropped a rough one in their lone game since we last met, losing on the road to Colorado St which dropped them to just 5-5 in Q1/2 games. They have strong SOS numbers, but that is only going to carry them so far, and with all of the chances these power conference teams are getting I feel like this resumé could get passed over. This week isn’t going to help a ton, as they head to San Jose St and then host Boise St, neither of which will be Q1, although Boise will count as Q2 so it could help a little bit. I genuinely think they can only afford 1 more loss, on the road @ Utah St, so I’m going to say they need to finish 7-1 in order to feel comfortable. If it’s 6-2 it will be close, and will depend more on what the rest of the bubble does. It starts this week though as they just need to handle business and not slip up anymore like they did a week ago.
–WCC–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Saint Mary’s: 20-4 (11-1) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 88 (91) Q1(A): (1-0) NET (21)
I was curious how St. Mary’s would fare this week as they headed on the road to face 2 hungry bubble teams, fresh off a win over Gonzaga. They did trip up and lose @ San Francisco, but the bounce back easy win @ Oregon St did a lot to quell any fears I had for them. They are simply just a good basketball team and should be heavily favored in all but 1 of their games the rest of the way, the rematch @ Gonzaga. This one feels pretty solid, and while they could of course drop some that we don’t expect, that’s not really who they are, as they defend well and traditionally always tear through the bottom half of this conference. I would expect that to continue, and even if they lose @ Gonzaga they will remain well above the danger zone, so it’s all about avoiding the land mines as we close out February.
Gonzaga is just not all that good this year, I think we have to face that fact, as their 2 best wins are over Baylor/San Diego St who are also down a peg this year from what they usually are. Those wins are good enough to keep them in the field, mostly thanks to the computers also loving them and having them in the top-15. In no world is this team top-15, but the computers say it so it must be true right? They’re 48th in WAB (Wins Above Bubble), so while they may look great to the metrics the results are not so great, and to me they’re barely in the field right now and should be feeling desperate for big time wins. The unfortunate part is they aren’t going to have any big time chances until the final 3 games of the season, when they host St. Mary’s for the revenge game and then go to Santa Clara and San Fran. That’s going to be the stretch that tests them and helps them improve on that 5-7 Q1/2 record. Until then they should be favored in every game, so there shouldn’t be much to report on Gonzaga until late in February, unless it’s very bad news.
Outside Looking In:
San Fran: 19-6 (10-3) — Q1: (1-4) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: 106 (176) Q1(A): (0-1) NET (60)
What an incredible week for the Dons, as they took down Saint Mary’s and then avoided the let down spot as they went on the road to beat Loyola 2 days later. The win over the Gaels puts them firmly in the conversation, and keeps them on track to find their way in if they can stick to the plan (beat St Mary’s/Gonzaga at home). 1 step down, 1 to go, and while they probably aren’t going to fare well @ Gonzaga this week they are still going to finish with them at home to end the season. That final 2 game stretch is what I’ll be watching, as they play @ Oregon St and then host Gonzaga. Win those 2 games, plus the obvious ones over San Diego and Pacific, and I think the Dons would have a legitimate argument to get an at-large bid. We’ll see if they can get it done.
Memphis gave themselves a ton of wiggle room thanks to playing the 5th strongest non-con schedule and taking full advantage of their opportunities. They continued to roll and avoid falling victim to a sense of complacency that would be easy to succomb to, picking up home wins over bad teams. They are not really going to be challenged the rest of the way, as there isn’t a top-100 team on the schedule until a potential conference tourney rematch with North Texas. The fall off of the American is wild, and you would think after this season Memphis would be desperate to get into a better conference. Either way, they can essentially coast to the conference tourney at this point, as I don’t even think they have to play their best ball to win games right now, and that could be a problem Penny Hardaway has to navigate in order to keep them focused and getting better along the way.
Drake fans have to be massive Vandy/K-State fans right now, as they’re the only wins they have that look good and if they fall outside of Q1 then this resumé would take a major hit. They need the Commodores to continue to pick up wins in the SEC to keep that win there, and they need to just keep on winning games in the MVC. I continue to be amazed at what HC Ben McCollum has done here, and if I was a major conference team looking to go in a new direction (shoutout IU), I would be going after McCollum as the dude can clearly coach. If they win out it’ll be very interesting where they sit, but after last year’s debacle with Indiana St it’s hard to imagine they could get in without the Arch Madness title, but they have done so well they deserve to at least be on the watch for the stretch run. Any loss the rest of the way would be devastating.
VCU seems to be getting attention as a potential at-large team, and while they do have an overall 5-4 Q1/2 record, having just 1 Q1 win is not enough in my opinion. There are others that disagree though, and if they run the table the rest of the way they undoubtedly would be getting discussed. They have 0 Q1 opportunities left on the schedule, so I really don’t see how they could get in with just 1 Q1 win, but again, they’ll certainly get discussed. Last year it took 2 Q1 wins to get in, and with the way the committee treated teams with bad SOS numbers last year I just don’t see it. However, I am allowed to be wrong, and after that road win over Dayton it’s clear VCU is the team to beat, although George Mason is coming on strong. Just keep winning, that’s all they can do. Maybe next year they can schedule like Dayton and give themselves a better shot.
With their win over UC Irvine, to enact their revenge, they now have a better argument in my opinion than the Anteaters. They have a massive win @ Utah St that UC Irvine can’t compete with, and while they have fewer Q2 wins they have a chance to add one later when they travel to Cal St Northridge in late February. I still think either way one of these teams is going to have to win the conference tourney to get in, but they at least still deserve to be in the conversation, especially with that Q1(A) win. Again, as I’ll continue to say with all of these low major teams, they don’t do themselves any favors with the scheduling, as they surely could try and schedule some top teams from the mid-major conferences or something at least. To the Tritons credit they did at least have JMU and Toledo on the schedule, they just happened to have down seasons, but still it’s always going to be about major wins and if you want to have a chance at an at-large it’s going to be tough to compete with SEC/Big 10 teams who are playing 15 or more Q1 games to your 2 or 3. Even McNeese was able to land 5 Q1/2 games, which at least gave them more of a fighting chance, even though they failed to cash in. Either way, the Tritons need to win out and hope the rest of the bubble flounders.
We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. A quick aside before we dive in…There’s an underrated storyline happening in college hoops right now as we are witnessing one of the most efficient seasons, across the board, in history. Per my archetypes, we have 16 teams in the 4 trustworthy categories at the moment. That would break the previous record of 14 teams in 2017, with the average being around 11 teams. For the record, the 2017 Elite 8 included 6 of those 14, the Final 4 featured 3 and the lone “Elite” team was Gonzaga who lost in the National title game, so the proof is in the pudding. However, we now have over half of the top-30 looking good, so it begs the question, are we allowing too many seats at the table? My answer would be, hold tight. I truly don’t think that by the end of the season we’ll be sitting with 16 teams looking good, as teams like Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Marquette and Michigan are all barely in right now. Even so, I would also point out each of the archetype’s provides a unique level of trustworthiness, as the Elite teams are far more reliable than the Solid group. What will also matter are the matchups each team has in their path, so when the bracket is unveiled we’ll have even more clarity. So, before you get all high and mighty proclaiming 16 teams is way too many to consider, hold tight there’s a lot of ball to come, and also take note of the differences between the “trustworthy” archetypes.
For those new here, a quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with a whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
Houston and Duke remain the stalwarts in the Elite group, as they continue to play extremely efficient on both ends of the floor. Interestingly, Houston is not in line to be a 1 seed at the moment, so they could be a darkhorse entering the tourney, while also having a potentially tougher path than Duke.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
Auburn remains just a step off when it comes to defense, despite being most people’s favorite and the AP #1 they sit 3rd on our list. Still a very safe bet to get beyond the first weekend and probably an even deeper run, it just gets a bit alarming when they struggle to get stops at times. Iowa St fell off of a cliff but Florida jumped up to replace them, despite a loss to Tennessee they beat Vandy handily and have improved enough defensively to join Auburn here.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
Arizona and Maryland are both hot and ascending, while on the flip side we’re seeing Iowa St this low for the first time and we’re on the verge of losing Marquette altogether. Illinois and Michigan are also barely qualifying, helping us to have what would be a record amount of teams in the positive categories. I would expect to see fewer teams as we move forward.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
We’re down to just the Wildcats, who have fallen from grace after picking up massive wins earlier in the season. Teams like Baylor, Wisconsin, Purdue and Gonzaga have all found themselves here at some point but have made improvements defensively lately, but they’re certainly capable of finishing here if they slip up down the stretch.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
The Johnnies remain our lone grinder, but UCLA is creeping.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
It was a pretty wild week of upsets, with over half of the top 10 teams losing, but for the most part the teams down on the bubble were not the ones taking advantage. We saw teams like Northwestern, Santa Clara, Cincy and Bradley all drop games they couldn’t afford and find themselves relegated to off the radar, while teams like Indiana, UNC and Iowa all fell further from contention as pressure mounts to pick up big time wins. All in all we eliminated more teams than I thought we would, including relegating the A10 to a one bid league, can you believe this collapse by Dayton? The bubble overall is looking weaker than a year ago as I’m practically begging teams to pick up Q1 wins. There were a few bright spots though, including John Calipari and Arkansas picking up a massive Q1(A) win @ Kentucky to keep themselves alive and BYU/Nebraska are starting to surge as they each picked up 2 Q1 wins to vastly improve their positions. It’s hard to say anything with certainty this time of year but I’m getting the feeling the crop of teams battling it out at the end is going to be smaller this year, maybe paving the way for a team like Drake/UC Irvine to sneak in there if they fall in their conference tourney. There’s always a team or two that makes a late surge though, so we’ll see how the landscape changes over the coming weeks, and remember a team can move from off the radar to the watch quickly if they go on a run.
So, without further ado, here’s the structure. I’m going to assign teams to 4 groups – Locks, On the Right Track,Teetering and Outside Looking In. Any team left out is not even on the radar. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.
“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, see last year, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.
“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 6-7 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.
“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, to the teams you find on the first 4 or next 4 out lists.
“Outside Looking In” – These are the desperate teams, who are not close to in according to Bracket Matrix, but have enough opportunities to have a path to work themselves in.
For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (NonCon SOS), Q1(A) wins and NET rank. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we are sitting at 60 teams on this weeks watch, but many of those will be missing out. Alright let’s get it. All info as of 2/3. Check out my current bracket projection here.
Louisville picked up a big time win early last week with a home win over Wake Forest, but stubbed their toe on Saturday when they blew a 2nd half lead in a loss to Georgia Tech. That gave them their first loss outside of Q1, and while it isn’t going to send them spiraling toward the true bubble it certainly delays us locking them up. They were up 11 at half and gave up 50 in the 2nd half to a below .500 team, not great, but everyone is afforded a stinker here and there. Hopefully it will serve as a bit of a wake up, as they next head to Boston College which continues what is now a 5 out of 7 road stretch. Hopefully we aren’t talking about a Louisville collapse in a couple of weeks, but whenever you see a loss like that you have to pump the brakes. They’ve played well on the road so far this season, so I don’t expect this to be a problem, but we’ve seen more shocking collapses over the years. A 2-0 week next week will do a lot to quell my fears, but they’ve taken their first shrapnel from this land mine filled ACC schedule.
Clemson had just 1 game since we last met, taking care of business on the road against NC State. That win didn’t do a whole lot, although it did give them a 6th Q2 W, it moreso just helped them avoid a bad loss. They have a massive chance upcoming this week with Duke coming in to town on Saturday, giving them a chance to make this an open and shut case. They will have to avoid a look ahead spot loss first vs Georgia Tech, who just knocked off Louisville, but that game Saturday represents their last chance at picking up another elite win. They’ll have other Q1 chances on the road, but you’d like to be able to pick up one at home. They also really need to grab at least 1 more Q1 win, because if they lose out on those opportunities they’re not going to feel good at just 2-4 in Q1. They have SMU on the road as the only one left after this, so they should have as much urgency as you can have, beyond just the chance to knock off Duke and tie them up in the ACC standings. Big time, big time Saturday for Clemson.
Life on the bubble is becoming quite familiar for Wake Forest fans I’m sure, and in true bubble team fashion Wake dropped a Q1 road game and then squeaked out a Q2 home game vs Pitt this week to stay right on the cut line. I have them slightly above Pitt now but it’s basically the same resumé, as each have 1 elite win they are clinging to, I just favor Wake’s win over Michigan and their 0 losses outside of Q1. The metrics don’t like the Demon Deacons because they refuse to blow teams out but they find ways to win. They are going to be tested this week with 2 tricky road tests that they desperately need, heading across country to Stanford/Cal. They really need to grab both of these, as it starts a stretch of 4 out of 5 away from home, including a Q1 chance @ SMU later down the road. Dropping their 1st game outside of Q1 would be devastating, so it’s a big week for Wake to hold serve and stack what could be 2 Q2 wins.
Pitt missed out on yet another Q1 chance on Saturday, dropping a close one @ Wake Forest to drop them to just 1-6 in Q1 games. Like we said last week, their remaining Q1 chances are all on the road, and they missed out on their first crack at it. They have just 3 left, and while beating UNC earlier in the week was important, it was only a Q2 win, and no matter how you slice it 1 Q1 win is not going to get it done. 2 of their 3 remaining chances are upcoming, but they first will get a get right game with Virginia coming in. After that they’re heading to Chapel Hill in what is a massive bubble game on Saturday, with 2 teams who desperately need every win they can get. They are barely clinging to a spot in the field as it stands, but teams in other conferences are starting to stack up Q1 wins, so another Q1 loss may just knock them out of it in next weeks update. SMU is around the corner, but if I’m a Pitt fan I’m viewing the game on Saturday as close to a must-win as it gets.
The Tar Heels are officially in a free fall, losers of 4 out of 5 they are now firmly out of the field in my book. They lost a tough one @ Pitt in a game they led late in the 2nd half and then got smoked by Duke in what was an awful week for Hubert Davis and this program. While they have played a very difficult schedule, which can excuse some of the losses (5 to top-10 NET teams), at some point you have to be able to beat good teams if you want to be considered a good team. They have just the one good win over UCLA, but are now 0-8 in Q1(A) games, which is just not going to cut it. They have just one game until we meet again, hosting Pitt in the rematch, which has now become a must-win. They can’t afford to drop a Q2 game at this point, as their main resumé point is that they are 13-2 outside of Q1(A) games. They are almost to the point they need to run the table, maybe can afford 1 loss, but I don’t think 2-10 in Q1 is going to cut it. I’m going to say it, they need to win out, or at least for sure win both the Clemson/Duke games to get in. We’ll see if they can rally and get it done.
This SMU resumé is going to be very interesting as we move forward, as it is more akin to one of the mid-major teams we are tracking than what we would typically see in the ACC. They have somehow managed to win 17 games, playing a major conference while just playing 3 Q1 games. In each of those they got blown out, and while they continue to dominate in games outside of Q1, they just don’t have that elite win to hang their hat on. The metrics like them more than a Wake Forest for example, mostly because they tend to get hot and blow teams out like they did on Saturday vs Stanford. There’s a chance down the stretch they play 0 more Q1 games, with Clemson at home being the closest but they are barely qualifying at 29th in the NET. The game @ VA Tech this week will again do nothing for them, but home games with Pitt/Wake/Clemson are the games I’m circling. Either way I think they’re in a similar position as UNC where they need to essentially win out to have a good feeling about their chances.
Stanford handled their business at home vs Syracuse but in a big opportunity got wrecked by SMU on Saturday. That is not good for the resumé, as it hurts the metrics big time and also drops them to just 3-6 in Q1/2 games. They still have 6 such games though down the stretch, so they actually have plenty of opportunities to improve their situation the rest of the way, and that’s why they’re still here. It starts this week in what is a must-win week with Wake Forest coming in, followed by NC State. Can’t lose either of those if they want to stay in contention, and I would expect them to win both, moving them to 4-6 in Q1/2 games with trips to Duke/Louisville still to come and a home rematch with SMU. It’s as long of a shot as there exists on the watch right now but there’s something I can’t quit with them right now.
Purdue is in the best position of any team in the Big Ten right now, with that narrow win over Indiana on Friday night keeping the train rolling and improving their Q1/2 record to 12-5. They have a very difficult road to finish the season though, with 7 out of 9 being Q1 games, so that top-10 SOS is only going to improve, but it’s all of those tough games that makes me hesitant to lock just yet. They have 2 games against hungry bubble teams this week, going to Iowa and then hosting a hot USC team. I don’t expect an 0-2 week by any means, and even if they did go 0-2 they would be in a perfectly fine position still, but I just want to see at least 1 more win before I go ahead and lock them up. It’s hard to win @ Mackey, but USC has already won @ Illinois/Nebraska and are playing better and better with every game. I expect to lock the Boilers up next week, but let’s just make them earn it a bit more.
As I said last week Michigan State’s schedule was about to heat up, and after an easy win vs Minnesota Sparty headed out to LA and lost to USC. They finish with 8 more Q1 games in their final 10, and believe you me if they are just 4-11 or even 5-10 in Q1 it’s going to be way more hairy than people would think. Oklahoma was perfect outside of Q1 last year and 4-12 in Q1 and missed the tourney, with a win over Houston on their resumé. I don’t expect an Izzo led team to completely collapse the rest of the season, but there are just no easy games, with the 2 non Q1 games left being Oregon/Indiana at home, two teams capable of beating them. Again, I don’t expect a collapse but with this schedule it certainly is a possibility. They could do a lot to quell my fears this week by winning @ UCLA or vs Oregon. Given what we’ve seen though I expect them to lose again to UCLA and make the Oregon game ultra important in stopping any creeping thoughts of a collapse.
This Ducks team might be the most confusing team in America, as they’ve now lost 4 out of 5, including twice at home and on the road to Minnesota. Horrific, but none worse than Sunday’s loss at home to Nebraska, which dropped them to just 1-2 in Q2 games. Sounds like they’re struggling, and they are, but what makes it confusing is they’re still 7-1 in Q1 games away from home. They have 4 Q1(A) wins. You look at it from that perspective and it’s one of the more impressive resumé’s on the watch that isn’t locked at this point. I have no idea where to seed them, no idea what to think about them, but it feels like a team with 8 Q1 wins couldn’t miss the tourney, but here we sit with them about to head to Michigan/Michigan St next week where it looks like they could drop 2 more and grow this losing streak to 5 straight. Let’s not forget though, they’re 7-1 in Q1 games away from home, so maybe they pick up another tough win on the road? I have no idea. I don’t know if they’re good, I don’t know what seed they should get. They’re 37 in the NET but have the 2nd most Q1 wins in the entire country behind only Auburn. Make it make sense.
Wisconsin took a big step towards locking up with a road win over Northwestern to help quiet any noise of another late season collapse. They lost @ Maryland, no shame in that, but I was worried about an 0-2 week being a signal of bad things to come. They took down Northwestern though and have a very good resumé right now, with some very winnable home games still on the schedule. Based on their schedule they may be just 1 or 2 wins away from locking, as they have 5 of 9 at home and against some of the bottom tier teams in the league. Another good week from the Badgers and this may be the last time we have to write about them, so shout out to transfer John Tonje who has seemingly come out of nowhere to lead them offensively. He’s shooting nearly 46% from 3 in Conference play and is a huge reason they are where they are and why they may make it out of the first weekend in March for the first time since 2017.
It’s safe to say the train is back on the tracks for UCLA as they’ve ripped off 5 straight wins now after losing 4 in a row to kick off January. It was starting to get hairy a few weeks back, as Cronin was taking to post game pressers to rip his guys and blaming travel for their issues. They have gotten things figured out though, picking up wins @ USC and vs Oregon this week to put themselves in a much better spot entering February. Maybe the travel was an issue, as they’ve gone to just Washington and stayed in LA to play USC during this stretch, so we’ll see how upcoming trips east go, as this is just life in the Big 10 now for the old PAC-12 teams, gotta figure it out. For now we’ll acknowledge they’re in a fantastic spot, with 5 Q1 wins and 2 more upcoming home games vs Michigan St and Penn St, they could be 18-6 and nearing lock status next week so long as they keep handling their business.
The Terps had just one game this week and stayed hot, taking down Wisconsin at home to make it 4 straight wins and 6 out of 7. They’ve quickly gone from firmly on the bubble to sitting pretty, as they’ve picked up 3 straight Q1 wins to vastly improve their resumé. This most recent win over Wisconsin continued the recent trend of their starting 5 carrying the load, as they have shortened the bench and are playing all 5 starters 30+ minutes. They had just 6 bench points and all 5 starters were in double figures, but that has been the new normal over this streak and it’s hard to argue with a 6-1 record as the result. They have to go to Ohio St and then host Rutgers this week, and if they’re able to win both of those we may be able to lock them up already. I would expect that game in Columbus to be very difficult to pull off, and a 1-1 week would not be anything to be upset about with the way Ohio St is playing of late. We’ll see how it plays out but right now the Terps are one of the hottest teams in the Big 10.
Illinois almost had a very bad week after they kicked it off with a road loss to Nebraska, they were on the ropes on Sunday at home vs Ohio St. They were able to come back and notch another Q1 win, but it highlights how shaky they have been over the last few weeks, going just 3-4. Their resumé has benefited from some teams rising in the NET (Arkansas cracking top-50), but still at this moment in time it looks very solid with 6 Q1 wins. They have a stretch upcoming where, if they can handle business, they can make this an open and shut case. They head to Rutgers/Minnesota this week, and while they’re tricky road games they’re Q2 games and ones you need to take care of if you are who you say you are. Then they head home to play UCLA/Michigan St next week. A 4-0 or 3-1 stretch over this stretch and it will be a wrap, but with how inconsistent they’ve played it remains a mystery what we will see transpire.
Michigan had an under the radar but huge week, as they were really struggling, losing to Minnesota, almost losing to Northwestern and then getting blown out by Purdue they were starting to show some cracks. They locked back in, albeit in close games, but beating Penn St and then @ a desperate Rutgers team they settled back in and are right in the thick of the Big 10 race. Like a lot of these Big 10 teams the schedule down the stretch is brutal though, with 8 of their final 10 of the Q1 variety, we’re going to learn really quick who they are. They’ve only played 6 Q1 games to this point, with mixed results, so it’ll be interesting to see how this group of transfers plays through such a gauntlet. It starts this week as they host Oregon and then head to a desperate Indiana team needing marquee wins.
I said they needed to handle business at home and find a way to steal 1 or 2 road games down the stretch, and last week they did just that. They started by beating Iowa comfortably at home, but the road win @ Penn St later in the week felt far more important. They then came very close to beating Illinois in Champaign, but ultimately lost and now sit 7-9 in Q1/2 games. I think they’re in right now, looks like most agree, and they have an upcoming stretch of 4 home games in their next 5 so they should be able to strengthen their resumé even more. This week they get Maryland at home, another Q1 chance and one they desperately need to stay on track. The trip to Nebraska later in the week will be tough, but either way it’s 2 Q1 games that they absolutely need to land 1 of. If they drop to 7-11 in Q1/2 games then it will be hairy, so the pressure is on to convert on these opportunities.
Credit to Hoiberg and this team, as they stopped their 6 game losing streak with a massive win over Illinois at home and then followed that up with yet another massive win @ Oregon. Absolutely insane pivot after looking like they were in a freefall, but they’ve swung this thing back to the right side of the bubble, with 3 Q1(A) wins they should be solidly in right now, albeit somewhere around a 10 seed so not comfortable just yet. They leaned heavily on Brice Williams in these 2 games, and he responded by dropping 55 combined points on 44 shots, so it’s clear moving forward they’re going to ask him to carry them. They’ll need him, because they need to continue to stack wins, and they have great chances this week, with another road game @ Washington which is very winnable and then they host Ohio St. Another 2-0 week and things are very good, but given this team’s recent history it feels like an 0-2 week is just as likely, so this thing could go absolutely any direction right now.
The Muss Buss is back in business, as the Trojans picked up a massive home win over Michigan St to bring them right up to the cut line. They are firmly in the “Last 4 In”, “First 4 Out” conversation, with the terrible NCSOS dragging them down a bit. The big time win @ Illinois looms large, along with this most recent win over Sparty, they are truly on the precipice. They have 2 more Q1 chances this week, both on the road and the first of which being Northwestern who is down Barnhizer, so very winnable. If they can go 1-1 this week, losing @ Purdue, then they would likely find themselves in the field, albeit close still. 2-0 obviously would vault them well into the field, but we’re not going to expect them to go into Mackey and win. They just need to find a way to knock off Northwestern and they’ll still be in good shape, with winnable home games upcoming.
The Hoosiers continued their slide this week, dropping a nail biter @ Purdue, and while they played really well and had a chance to win it, at the end of the day it was their 5th loss in 6 games, dropping them firmly out of the field. We spoke last week about their difficult schedule, but what they face now is a stretch of 4 out of 6 at home. They have to have all eyes forward, as they truly have a chance to go on a run and make the tourney. Going to Wisconsin is a tough way to start, but those 4 home games are coming, with Michigan at home this week. They have to be able to stop the bleeding and beat the Wolverines at home. While they may lose @ Wisconsin and Michigan St over the next 9 days, that 3 game in a row stretch at home to follow is going to be the pivotal point in the season. Hoosier fans of course want more than to be on the bubble, but if the locker room stays together they do still have a shot at getting in the dance. However far below expectations that may be, it’s still something.
Iowa has pretty much made it clear who they are to this point, as they can handle 2nd level type teams, but every time they have a Q1 chance they fail to capitalize. They remain on the watch though because if they can just pick up a couple big wins their resumé would instantly become compelling. They failed in their one attempt this week, dropping one @ Ohio St and it wasn’t even close. This week might be the week that either bursts their bubble, keeps them alive or even flips them to in the field. They host Purdue and Wisconsin, 2 Q1 chances at home, and to be charitable to them these are their first home Q1 chances since they lost to Iowa St in early December. It’s hard to win on the road, and with a home environment that usually delivers they certainly have the chance to have a 2-0 week that completely flips their season. To add to the urgency, they have just 1 remaining home Q1 chance after this with Sparty coming in March, so this week truly is make or break for the Hawkeyes.
The metrics, as always, love Houston, thanks to their python like ability to suffocate and crush inferior opponents. However, they continue to struggle in close games against really good teams. They were able to beat WVU on the road this last week, but they’re just a fringe top-50 team, and while it counts as a Q1 game, the home loss to Texas Tech is the more indicative result in my opinion. While the computers love them, they have struggled to win elite games, and their resumé continues to look like Auburn’s last year, who ended up 5th in the NET but a 4 seed. That’s where I continue to have Houston, which by no means makes them lockable at this stage. My belief is they will continue to crush the teams they should beat, and that will eventually make them a lock, but their seed is not yet going to reflect their NET ranking, something people seem to need reminded of year after year. As I mentioned Auburn is a great example as a 4 seed and ranked 5th in NET last year, but also S. Carolina was a 6 seed and ranked 51st. It’s a tool to measure, not a major factor in seeding. I digress, they play Colorado and Oklahoma St this week, teams they will likely beat by 20-30 points and bring them close to locking.
Kansas continues to be a bit of a disappointment this year, coming in as the preseason #1 and after another Big 12 loss they’re just 6-4 in Conference play. The loss to Baylor on Saturday was particularly shocking, blowing a 21 point lead to a team playing without their usual starting PG and one they completely outmatched on the front line. The fact that a group including Dickinson/Bidunga/Adams allowed Baylor to out rebound them by 13 is just flat out embarrassing. I am not sure what the move for Bill Self is going forward, but clearly they are not right, as they barely beat UCF at home earlier in the week. They better wake up quickly, because a hungry Iowa St team off an embarrassing loss themselves is heading to Allen Fieldhouse. While they have plenty of winnable games on the schedule coming up, they are certainly not a lock to not completely unravel, even with arguably one of the most talented rosters in the country. A win over Iowa St of course dispels many of the questions, but it’s hard to not question them going forward.
Arizona kicked off a brutal stretch last week with a bang, beating Iowa St off of a miraculous Caleb Love heave at the buzzer to send it to OT and followed that up with a road win over rival Arizona St. They are absolutely rolling right now, as they’re 11-1 over their last 12 and have added all 5 of their Q1 wins in that stretch. The schedule has no let up in sight, as they next head to Provo to face a hot BYU team and then host an even hotter Texas Tech team. Those are both Q1 chances, so if they’re able to go 2-0 this week we’d be seriously looking at them as a lock with 7 Q1 wins. It’s a lot to expect, but with how they’ve been playing I wouldn’t be shocked, as they’ve gone from 4-5 overall in mid-december to entering February tied with Houston for the top spot in the Big 12. Quite the turnaround and something nobody saw coming given how strong Iowa State and Kansas looked heading into conference play.
Texas Tech continues to be white hot, winners of now 6 in a row, including 4 Q1 victories, none more impressive than Saturday’s stunner over Houston. They lost JT Toppin early in the game to a horrifying flagrant call that resulted in both his and HC Grant McCasland’s ejections. Somehow they still found a way to beat Houston in Houston and break their 33 game home winning streak in what was probably the most impressive win of the weekend. They have cemented themselves as true contenders in the Big 12, and resumé wise are starting to really make up for the fact they played a horrific non-con schedule. That likely will hurt them seed wise, but with 3 Q1(A) victories now and an overall 6-4 record in Q1/2 they have to feel pretty good as we make the turn into February. They’ll have 2 more chances as big time wins this week as they host Baylor and then head to Arizona. I would say that a split seems most likely, but after they won @ Houston it’s hard to just assume they’ll lose on the road, as good as Arizona has been. A 2-0 week may just send them to locksville.
Teetering:
West Virginia: 14-7 (5-5) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 10 (57) Q1(A): (4-4) NET (40)
Sunday’s win @ Cincy was huge for the Mountaineers as they were starting to lose control of this thing after the loss vs Houston earlier in the week made it 5 out of 7 L’s. They were able to pick up their 5th Q1 win, and while they’re still under .500 at 6-7 in Q1/2 those 4 Q1(A) wins are going to continue to buoy them. Javon Small is absolutely carrying this team, but when they’re at their best the defense is clearly the strength. They held Cincy to 50 points in that big win, and now have a relatively easy week upcoming with TCU and Utah up next, it’s as much of a reprieve as you can get in Big 12 play. They do have to go on the road to play TCU, but that’s a great chance to improve that Q2 record to 2-2 to reduce the largest stain on the resumé. If they somehow drop to just 1-3 in Q2 I don’t think it knocks them out, thanks to those 4 elite wins, but it certainly makes their resumé a tricky one to seed. The committee has in the past overlooked bad losses when there are elite wins to make up for it, so I think they’re okay, but they could make their lives easier by just going 2-0 this week.
Baylor was oh so close to both having a 2-0 week last week and an 0-2 week, as they went to OT with BYU nearly picking up a huge road W only to fall. Then they came out on Saturday completely flat against Kansas before rallying from down 21 to knock off the Jayhawks. It was a wild week full of inconsistent play, but overall they went 1-1 in Q1 games including a critical Q1(A) win over Kansas. Ultimately what it did was provide some breathing room for them as they separate from the true bubble, but at just 6-6 in Q1/2 games they certainly can’t feel safe. The schedule upcoming provides some relief, with 3 of their next 5 at home, with UCF up next as a very winnable game. Sandwiched in that stretch are road games with Houston/Texas Tech though, so holding serve at home is going to be critical for them to remain on the right side of things.
UCF had a really tough week, as they went to Allen Fieldhouse and went blow for blow with Kansas but ultimately lost. They followed that up by losing another tight one at home to BYU to drop down to just 3-8 in Q1/2 games. While they have the impressive wins over Texas A&M/Texas Tech, the overall resumé is just looking weaker and weaker, especially that 0-2 Q2 record. I don’t think they should be in at this point, but others disagree so they remain teetering as of now, with those 2 elite wins elevating them right now. I only think they can be buoyed so much by those elite wins, but either way it’s a critical juncture in the season for the Knights. They host fellow bubble team Cincy this week in what I would consider a must-win as they can’t drop to 0-3 in Q2, especially since they head to Baylor after that. Another 0-2 week would absolutely drop them out of the field, and even a split that dropped them to 4-9 in Q1/2 would still leave them in a precarious position. It’s nut up or shut up time for UCF.
The Sun Devils actually started putting together a quality resumé in non-con play knocking off St. Mary’s and New Mexico, but Big 12 play has really beaten them down so far. They lost 4 out of 5 to start including a home game to UCF that was almost backbreaking, until they went to WVU and won to keep this thing alive. It is likely going to be touch and go the rest of the way with this group, but the strong SOS numbers and those wins in the non-con give them a fighting chance still even with the slow start to Big 12 play. They have several Q1 home games left with Arizona/Houston/Texas Tech all going to Tempe still, so the opportunities will be there to still give you some hope. Bobby Hurley is now in year 10 here and is still looking for his first tourney win and Arizona St as a program hasn’t had one since 2009, so I would think pressure would be mounting to get this program some momentum, we’ll see if they can find it.
This past week was as good a week as you could ask for if you’re team on the bubble, as BYU picked up close wins over Baylor at home and UCF on the road to pick up their first 2 Q1 wins. They are now firmly in the conversation, and while I still have them out, you’ll most likely start seeing them pop up on people’s Last 4 In lists. I still think the wins aren’t impressive enough, the losses are pretty ugly and those SOS numbers are really bad. However, they are going to have plenty of chances to improve their situation though, and with how they’re playing I expect them to continue to convert. One of their best chances is on deck as Arizona is set to come to Provo, with road trips to Cincy and WVU after that which are very winnable. I don’t necessarily expect them to win 3 straight, but it is not out of the question, and that would certainly flip them into the field. As I said last week this is a dangerous team if they put it together, and it’s increasingly looking like they are.
–Big East–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
St. John’s: 19-3 (10-1) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (8-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 89 (171) Q1(A): (0-1) NET (24)
The Johnnies didn’t add much to their resumé this past week but going 2-0 was exactly what the doctor ordered. They are still lacking quality wins, keeping them from the seed line you’d expect from a Big East team with their record. The good news for them is the quality chances are upcoming, with a matchup at home with Marquette and then a trip to UConn. They definitely need to go at least 1-1 this week if they want to stay on track, as dropping to just 1-5 in Q1 would definitely put them in the teetering category. Tuesday night’s game vs Marquette is their lone Q1 chance at home left on the schedule, unless UConn can find their way into the top-30. However you slice it this is a pivotal week for St. John’s as they desperately need to notch a marquee win or two, so finding a way to knock one of the other top teams in the Big East will go a long way to making them a lock come Selection Sunday.
UConn has a pretty unique resumé all things considered, and that was furthered this week as they went on the road to beat Marquette. They now have a better Q1(A) record than every other quadrant aside from Q4, pretty odd, but their propensity to play to the level of their opponent has made them must watch TV, regardless of who they’re playing. That was perfectly on display last week, as they trailed by us much as 14 to lowly DePaul before coming back to win, and then went into Marquette and picked up a massive road win over the best team in the Conference. They play just once this week and it’s a home tilt with St. John’s, another massive Q1 chance, and given what I just droned on about it figures to be another great game. I would expect them to win, although it’s strength on strength with the Huskies elite offense will take on the Johnnies top-10 defensive unit. A win would put UConn in an even safer position, and while they sit around an 8 seed right now I would expect another jump into on the right track with a 5th Q1 win.
Creighton continues to be one of the hottest teams in the country, winners of 7 straight and 9 of their last 10 they have quickly moved from the fringe to pretty firmly in. They picked up a big time road win over Villanova, albeit a bit lucky as Steven Ashworth banked in a 3 to take the lead in the dying seconds. That followed a home win over Xavier and the 2 wins improved them to 9-6 in Q1/2. That record is good enough to feel somewhat safe, but they still find themselves on the 8 ish seed line, so things can turn quickly with a few losses. This week offers them a couple of big opportunities to jump even higher though, as they first will have to navigate a tricky trip to Providence, a team that is feisty and capable of an upset. Then comes the bigger opportunity, as on Saturday they host Marquette. Winning that one would take them to 5-4 in Q1 and take them into the On the Right Track status.
Xavier missed on one of their few opportunities remaining with their loss @ Creighton this week, and they now are firmly on the outside of things with few chances left to improve their resumé. They now sit just 1-7 in Q1 games, and while the rest of the bubble isn’t strong either there is just no world in which 1 Q1 win is going to be enough. Therefore, we have to look ahead, and it just so happens this week is their lone remaining Q1 game of the regular season. They first host Georgetown in a must-win spot, and then they head to Villanova. That is not going to be an easy game, but Nova is so pathetically bad defensively you have to beat them if you consider yourself a tourney team. I’m calling this a must-win week for the Musketeers, as going 2-0 is the only path forward, dropping to 1-8 in Q1 games with no remaining chances is a death blow. It’s nut up or shut up time for Xavier.
Florida really stubbed their toe this week as they took a trip to Knoxville and got blown out by a Tennessee team playing without 2 of its starters. The swing in point spread in their 2 games was a whopping 50, which is beyond bizarre given how good the two teams are, but it allows me to continue to highlight how meh this resumé is. They have just 4 Q1 wins, of which only 1 is the of the Q1(A) variety, something more akin to teams near the cutline. They have elite metrics though, and only 3 losses is obviously very impressive, but in order to lock this week I was looking for 5+ Q1 wins, no bad losses and multiple elite wins. That’s not even mentioning the horrible SOS numbers. I think most people off the top of their head would assume Florida is in a better position than this, but A&M has 7 Q1 wins, 4 of which are Q1(A), serving as a great example of how inadequate this resumé is right now. They obviously have tons of chances to improve on it, but this week is just a Q2 home game vs Vandy and then a trip to Auburn. That’s a tough one to pick up, and dropping to just 4-4 in Q1 will not get them locked, even with a sparkly 6-0 Q2 record and 5th rank in NET. Beat Auburn though and I’ll stop yammering and lock them up.
Kentucky continues to be an enigma to me, as they can seemingly beat anyone but as the home loss this past week highlights they can also lose to anyone. They are an elite offensive team but their inability to get stops is killing them. They’ve now lost 3 out of 4, but in true 2025 UK fashion the 1 win sprinkled in their was @ Tennessee. Make it make sense. All of that said they honestly meet most of my criteria for lock status, with 7 Q1 wins, 5 of which are Q1(A) and elite SOS numbers they are right on the precipice, it’s just that loss to Arkansas gave them a loss outside of Q1 and they next head to Ole Miss. I still doubt a team with this many elite wins would miss the tourney, but with 10 games to play and just 15 wins it feels too early to lock them just yet. After the trip to Oxford they host S. Carolina, and if they enter that after a loss it becomes a must-win if you want to avoid an intense feeling of impending doom. Way too early to panic, but this week can do a lot to calm any fervor surrounding a collapse.
This Mizzou team continues to be the biggest story nobody is talking about, as they have recovered from an 0-18 season in SEC play to be sitting in fantastic position this year. They have already amassed 4 Q1 wins and are 6-2 in the SEC, putting them somewhere around the 4-5 seed line. They are not only vying for a bid they are rapidly approaching lock status, absolutely remarkable. Their incredible run may have peaked a few weeks ago when they beat Florida in Gainesville, but this weeks blowout win @ Mississippi St was almost as impressive. They are quickly going from just a feel good story to a legitimate contender in the SEC, and this week they play two of the top teams in the conference to try and cement themselves. While heading to Tennessee is not easy, they’ve already beaten UF/Mississippi St on the road, and even if they fall short they host Texas A&M after that, giving them a home Q1 chance to close out the week. Finding a way to win one of these 2 this week would bring them into serious lock consideration. What a story…please spread the word.
Ole Miss: 16-6 (5-4) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 11 (81) Q1(A): (2-6) NET (23)
Chris Beard’s group started the season 15-2 but have struggled over the past few weeks, going just 1-4 over their last 5. They still have a really solid resumé but the schedule is not going to let up so I’m starting to get a bit worried. The facts are though that all of their losses are Q1(A), so there really isn’t a threat of them totally collapsing, as they continue to beat teams that they should. I think that should continue, but first they’re going to get another crack at a great team with UK coming to Oxford. Win that and I’ll feel much better, but part of me is expecting them to lose and then bounce back with a road win over LSU. I’m looking at them as a tier 2 team in this Conference, and while that’s plenty good to get in the tourney, it’s likely going to take some time before they are lock worthy. A 2-0 week though and I might just amend that opinion.
Similar to their in-state rival Mississippi St is beginning to flounder, but in a much worse way. They have now lost 5 of 7, and unlike Ole Miss they have just 1 elite win and have a loss outside of Q1. Also the 2 wins during that stretch were in OT, not great. It’s still a good enough resumé as of now though, but the losses this past week to Bama and Mizzou, at home no less, are going to make it much more difficult down the stretch. They have 5 out of their final 9 on the road and 8 of them are going to be Q1. This week it’s the lone trip to Georgia, who is going to be desperate to pick up a win at home to try and stay in the field. I would not be surprised if we’re looking at Mississippi St off yet another loss in next weeks addition and we’ll start to be wondering if they are going to be this year’s Oklahoma. We tend to always have a late season collapse, and if I had to nominate one team right now this is the one. They could start to change my mind with a win this week, but excuse me for feeling a bit skeptical.
Oklahoma looked to be spiraling a mere 2 weeks ago as they had lost 4 straight games, but they’re now 3-1 over the last 4, putting themselves in much better position. The blowout win over Vandy was big for the metrics, and the close loss @ A&M did absolutely zero damage to the resumé. Overall I think they’re undervalued on Bracket Matrix, with a 6-5 Q1/2 record and multiple elite wins I would have them slightly higher, but Lunardi has them all the way down at an 11 seed, although I would argue he should not be your primary source for this information. All of that aside they have a nasty week upcoming, with a trip to Auburn on deck and then Tennessee coming to Norman. That smells like an 0-2 week, and frankly they’d still be in the field if that’s the result. If they can find a way to knock off Tennessee at home though then we’ll absolutely move them into On the Right Track territory. It could get ugly, but it’s also 2 massive opportunities to cement themselves into the field.
Tre Johnson continues to ball out for the Longhorns as they continue to rack up Q1 wins. They added one this week with a road win over LSU, making it their 4th such win over the last 2 weeks to take them from the outside looking in to pretty firmly in. I’m not convinced they’re the most well coached team out there, but they are insanely talented, and it seems this rag tag group is starting to gel which makes them very dangerous. The NCSOS is going to remain dreadful, but in the SEC there’s so many challenging games it likely isn’t going to matter. They are going to have 2 more chances to add quality wins this week, with Arkansas coming to Austin and then a trip to Vandy. While those won’t be elite wins by any stretch picking those up is going to be vital in keeping this train on the tracks. Of course a loss, especially on the road to Vandy, isn’t going to knock them out, but an 0-2 week certainly would push them close to the cut line. Life on the bubble is never easy, but in the SEC it’s as hairy as it gets.
Vandy took a little bit of a step back this week, as they got absolutely pounded by Oklahoma in their lone game since we last met. They are 2-2 so far in a stretch that involves 13 out of 14 games being Q1, so while we may mention schedules across the country being difficult I don’t think any of them compare to this Vandy stretch. This week they have to go to Florida and then they host Texas, and if that goes poorly they could drop to just 3-5 in Q1 and overall 5-7 in Q1/2. That would likely have them right on the edge, so finding a way to hold serve at home vs Texas is absolutely imperative. They have been good at home so far, knocking off both Tennessee and Kentucky most recently, so they certainly can do it, but coming off a 30 point loss and a potential butt kicking in Gainesville it’ll be interesting to see how they respond.
Well they did a little bit to at least slow the bleeding a bit but a win over S. Carolina unfortunately doesn’t mean much, and losing 5 out of 6 is far more indicative of this situation right now. The good news for the Dawgs is they have 3 of their next 4 games at home against LSU/Miss St/Mizzou, all very winnable. If they’re going to turn this thing around and stay in the field they need to go 3-1 over their next 4, and at minimum 2-2 to at least stay in the conversation. Given all of that this week is absolutely massive, with LSU in Athens first followed by a reeling Mississippi St team. It would be easy for this young team to start to unravel under the pressure of this SEC gauntlet, but given how well they’ve played at home (nearly knocked off Auburn) I feel like they can take down anyone and are setup nicely to find themselves somewhere around a 10 seed. I’m confident, but we’ll see if they can actually get it done.
John Calipari pulled off one final act in Lexington, as he took his downtrodden new team into Rupp Arena and shocked Kentucky. That win kept them alive for at least a little bit longer, and could be a catalyst for them to go on a run down the stretch. They now have 2 Q1(A) wins, however with just a 3-8 Q1/2 record they are pretty firmly out of it at this point. They are going to need to continue to stack wins as we charge through February, and since they are in the SEC they are going to have chance after chance to win their way into the field. They have a road trip to Texas followed by Bama at home, 2 massive Q1 chances. If they fall to 3-10 in Q1/2 they are going to have as big a mountain to climb as is even somewhat feasible, but with this much talent and Cal as their HC I just can’t quit them. I mean, we all just watched them win in Rupp right? Can’t quit em.
Utah St took a major hit to their case losing at home to New Mexico this week. It was a bit of a meltdown in the 2nd half, as they led by 6 at halftime and ended up losing the game by 19. They couldn’t hit a shot and ultimately lost their grip on 1st place in the Mountain West and with a 3rd loss outside of Q1 this resumé is looking less convincing. Unfortunately life in this conference isn’t going to offer them many opportunities to improve it, so they’re going to need to avoid taking any additional bad losses. They’re going to continue to hang their hat on the St. Mary’s win at their place, especially after the college hoops world just watched Gonzaga go there and lose. They have 4 games left that can help their Q1/2 record, but 3 of them are on the road, so it’s not going to be easy to make this thing feel safe. Crazy to say about a MW team that’s 18-3 but when you don’t schedule tough and your conference is down this is where you wind up.
San Diego St: 14-5 (8-3) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 62 (10) Q1(A): (1-1) NET (48)
I think at this point you could start to argue that San Diego St has a better resumé than Utah St, especially when you look at those Q1 wins and the SOS. This past week they just survived and advanced, adding just a couple of Q4 wins, but the wins over Houston and Creighton are the best 2 wins any team in the Conference has. They are pathetically bad offensively but in true Aztec fashion are one of the top defensive teams in the country and that is carrying them at this point. This week they have just 1 game and it’s a tricky trip out to Colorado St who is playing well but it’s a Q2 game at this point. They could definitely use a win there, improving their Q2 record to 3-1 would help, but their next big time chance isn’t until later this month @ Utah St, so any win at this point is needed given how few the opportunities are in the conference.
New Mexico: 17-4 (10-1) — Q1: (2-1) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (7-1) SOS: 84 (65) Q1(A): (1-1) NET (46)
New Mexico had one of the biggest wins of the week, going to Utah St and wrestling first place away from the Aggies and putting themselves in much better position. They’re now 8-2 in Q1/2 games, a very impressive record, and while they have 2 pretty bad losses the wins are starting to make up for those. I think they’re pretty solidly on the right side of the bubble right now, but given how many land mines exist in this conference it’s hard to ever feel like one of these teams are safe. They have a bit of a break over the next 3 games, although they can’t think of it like that, but they then will have 4 out of 5 games that were Q1/2 chances as February wraps up and we head into March. So, they need to hold serve, starting with a home win over Colorado St and then a road trip to lowly Air Force. We have seen them drop games they shouldn’t, not only this year but year’s past as well, so I’ll never feel like any game is a sure-fire win, but they absolutely have to have the next 3. We’ll see what happens.
–WCC–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track: N/A
Teetering:
Saint Mary’s: 19-3 (10-0) — Q1: (3-1) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 106 (97) Q1(A): (1-0) NET (22)
St. Mary’s had about as big of a week as they could ask for, picking up 2 Q1 wins with a road W @ Santa Clara and then the biggest of all at home vs Gonzaga. They have now won 10 straight games, all in WCC play and have improved to 7-3 in Q1/2 games. They feel like they should be pretty safe, but it’s the WCC and not only is there disaster around every corner but this week is lowkey maybe more tricky than last week. They head to both San Francisco and Oregon St who are both on the outside looking in and desperate for big time wins. St. Mary’s is the hunted now in this conference, and those two teams are going to be desperate to notch a marquee win. It’s not often we talk about St. Mary’s being in the best position in the WCC, but with Gonzaga’s struggles they are the clear top dog this year, and these games this week will be a big test to how they will respond to being in this position.
Gonzaga is just not all that good this year, I think we have to face that fact, as their 2 best wins are over Baylor/San Diego St who are also down a peg this year from what they usually are. Those wins are good enough to keep them in the field, mostly thanks to the computers also loving them and having them in the top-15. In no world is this team top-15, but the computers say it so it must be true right? They’re 50th in WAB (Wins Above Bubble), so while they may look great to the metrics the results are not so great, and to me they’re barely in the field right now and should be feeling desperate for big time wins. The unfortunate part is they aren’t going to have any big time chances until the final 3 games of the season, when they host St. Mary’s for the revenge game and then go to Santa Clara and San Fran. That’s going to be the stretch that tests them and helps them improve on that 5-7 Q1/2 record. Until then they should be favored in every game, so there shouldn’t be much to report on Gonzaga until late in February, unless it’s very bad news.
Outside Looking In:
San Francisco: 17-6 (8-3) — Q1: (0-4) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: 120 (182) Q1(A): (0-1) NET (67)
Well this is the week, with Thursday night being the specific night for this San Francisco program as they have an opportunity to knock off St. Mary’s at home and notch their first Q1 win. They handled Wazzu this week, added very little to their resumé but frankly it all comes down to whether or not they can beat St. Mary’s at home and later on Gonzaga. If they can pick those 2 wins up at home and have 2 Q1 wins they could find themselves in position to nab an at-large. It’s still not a guarantee but they absolutely have to have those 2 games, and it starts this week. Of course, they will need to stay focused and win @ Loyola after so they don’t ruin the good they do. It’s a must-win week, which for a program that has been in the dance just once in the last 25 years and hasn’t won a tourney game since the 70’s it’s an incredible opportunity to start what could be a historic run.
The Beavers have as slim a path as you could carve out, but similar to San Francisco it hinges on this week. We’re just going to skirt by the fact they lost @ Gonzaga this week by 38, they already beat them at home so no big deal. It’s all about the home game vs St. Mary’s on Saturday night, as that would give them their 2nd Q1 win and open up the path for them to at least be in the conversation. They are going to need to essentially win out, so it’s not just that game, but they need every win they can get the rest of the season. I would say only the game @ St. Mary’s they can lose the rest of the way, so this will be fun to track as we keep going forward. First it’s Wazzu at home, and then the big one with the Gaels, so we’ll say it’s a must-win week for Oregon St, although they have 3 straight must-win weeks upcoming so it’s nut up or shut up time for the Beavers.
Memphis gave themselves a ton of wiggle room thanks to playing the 5th strongest non-con schedule and taking full advantage of their opportunities. They continued to roll and avoid falling victim to a sense of complacency that would be easy to succomb to, picking up road wins over bad teams. They are not really going to be challenged the rest of the way, as there isn’t a top-100 team on the schedule until a potential conference tourney rematch with North Texas. The fall off of the American is wild, and you would think after this season Memphis would be desperate to get into a better conference. Either way, they can essentially coast to the conference tourney at this point, as I don’t even think they have to play their best ball to win games right now, and that could be a problem Penny Hardaway has to navigate in order to keep them focused and getting better along the way.
Drake fans have to be massive Vandy fans right now, as they’re the only win they have that looks good and if they fall outside the top-50 in NET the Bulldogs would lose their lone Q1 win. They need the Commodores to continue to pick up wins in the SEC to keep that win there, and they need to just keep on winning games in the MVC. I continue to be amazed at what HC Ben McCollum has done here, and if I was a major conference team looking to go in a new direction (shoutout IU), I would be going after McCollum as the dude can clearly coach. If they win out it’ll be very interesting where they sit, but after last year’s debacle with Indiana St it’s hard to imagine they could get in without the Arch Madness title, but they have done so well they deserve to at least be on the watch for the stretch run.
The Anteaters are continuing their run, going 2-0 this past week and as one of the top defensive teams in the country they certainly have earned there way to this spot. They are 3-1 in Q1/2, and while the SOS numbers are very bad, having that kind of record in those games at least puts them legitimately in the conversation. Do they have an elite win? No. And frankly that is probably what will limit them if they do lose in the conference tourney, as they likely would face a similar fate as Indiana St did a year ago. They have the win @ UC San Diego, the other top contender in this conference, and will get them at home later with a chance to add a 4th Q2 win. They get their last chance to improve the Q1/2 record when they host UC San Diego this Saturday in their lone game of the week, one they have to win if they want to remain a part of the bubble conversation.
We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. Quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with a whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
We have a new addition to the Elite group with Houston jumping up and actually taking over the #1 spot on Kempom as their offense has surged. The question with Houston is never their defense, it’s always whether or not they can score. The difference this year? They’re a top-10 3 point shooting team along with their offensive rebounding prowess. They are dangerous and join Duke atop the sport right now.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
Auburn remains just a step off when it comes to defense, as most people’s favorite and the AP #1 they sit 3rd on our list. Still a very safe bet to get beyond the first weekend and probably an even deeper run, it just gets a bit alarming when they struggle to get stops at times. Although being 11th is still extremely good, but we’re here to split hairs. Iowa St remains in this territory where they likely belong.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
Michigan St and Maryland are surging right now, both entering into a plus archetype, being very balanced while not elite on either end. We’ve Seen Marquette here almost all season and Florida has oscillated between here and the above categories.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
We’re back for another year of covering all things bubble in the lead up to the greatest post-season in sports. This is the place where, for the next 8 weeks or so, we’ll attempt to bring clarity to what is the the most complex post-season selection process in sports. Hell even as a self-proclaimed bracketologist myself I get lost in the weeds sometimes, so maybe this column is more of a cathartic release and organizational tool for me than it is a source of joy for you but hey, I appreciate you nonetheless. Every fan on the bubble just wants to know there’s a chance, a little drop of hope, a path to watching their team in the NCAA tournament. Well, we have 67 teams on the 1st watch, all vying for the at-large bids, so needless to say hope abounds as we steamroll into February.
We are going to assess every team that currently has a reasonable path, and we’re going to be even more stingy on locks after last year’s debacle. For those of you who weren’t along for the ride last year I locked Oklahoma, a team that Bracket Matrix overwhelmingly had in but missed the cut thanks to the chaos that erupted during conference tourney weekend. The bid stealers consumed the Sooners, although I still would argue they should’ve been in over Virginia, I’m going to try and not get bogged down by what I “think” should happen and focus on everything that could. Lesson learned, account for maximum conference tourney chaos, which means less locks this year and more content down the stretch, so a win win, but please don’t question why your team isn’t locked when they’re 19-8 and look solid, they could wind up being Oklahoma. With that, let’s get into it.
While we may feel confident about what’s at the top this year with teams like Duke and Auburn separating themselves, March still figures to be just as wild and unpredictable as it always is, but what we can’t allow to be wild and unpredictable is Selection Sunday, and that’s why we’re all here right? So, I’m going to assign teams to 4 groups – Locks, On the Right Track,Teetering and Outside Looking In. Any team left out is not even on the radar. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.
“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, see last year, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.
“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 6-7 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.
“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, to the teams you find on the first 4 or next 4 out lists.
“Outside Looking In” – These are the desperate teams, who are not close to in according to Bracket Matrix, but have enough opportunities to have a path to work themselves in.
For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (NonCon SOS), Q1(A) wins and NET rank. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 67 teams on the first watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 1/27. Check out my current bracket projection here.
Pat Kelsey has done an unbelievable job returning this Louisville program back to a contender in the ACC in year 1 after a 2 year stretch of being a laughingstock. He’s the COY so far in my book, and right now the Cardinals are sitting pretty as they’ve already capitalized on their big opportunities in ACC play. They’ve knocked off UNC/Clemson at home and went to Pitt/SMU and picked up huge wins. They lost their only matchup with Duke to open ACC play, so the rest of the way is just going to be a schedule full of land mines they will have to navigate. The only Q1 opportunity left would potentially be Pitt at home but right now they are just outside the top-30. Their perfect record outside of Q1 and strong non-con SOS should keep them in good standing, but a slip up or two might make things a little closer than they appear right now. It’s survive and advance the rest of the way for this group.
It’s Brad Brownell’s 15th year at Clemson, and he has them on pace to finally make the tournament in back-to-back seasons. Coming off a trip to the Elite 8, you are starting to be forced to look at Clemson like a true yearly threat in the ACC. As far as a resumé this year they have two great wins so far, beating UK at home and Pitt on the road, and with a 7-4 overall record in Q1/2 they are in a great position, as of now. Inherently for the ACC teams there is danger around every corner, as so many conference games are going to be in the Q3/4 zone and losses there can start to really damage a resumé. They still have a few opportunities to try and cash in on, with UNC/Duke both still visiting and trips to SMU and FSU being Q1 as of now. However, that also means going 0-4 in those games would leave them 7-8 in Q1/2 so not only do they need to continue to avoid bad losses they need to be big game hunting in order to make Selection Sunday comfortable.
Pitt started the season 12-2 and looked like a sure fire tourney team midway through January, until a 4 game skid jammed the brakes on this thing. They are now just 4-6 in Q1/2 games with really just 1 high quality win @ Ohio St, which was fading until the Buckeyes went to Purdue and picked up a huge win to stay alive. The unfortunate scheduling point for the Panthers is they really only have the upcoming home game with UNC as a meaningful resumé opportunity that isn’t on the road. They get a handful of road opportunities, drawing UNC/SMU/Louisville/Wake as all big time opportunities. That’s tough though because if you go 0-4 in those difficult games you’re just 1-10 in Q1 and that’s just not going to be good enough. They need to find a way to win at least 1 of those games down the stretch to stay in the hunt, and probably multiple, which is a crazy thing to say about a team in the field entering February but that’s the nature of the ACC right now. Opportunities are few and you have to strike when you get the chance.
The oscillation of the Hubert Davis tenure continues as the Tar Heels are struggling through another historically uncharacteristic season after being a 1 seed last year. They can’t seem to find consistency under Davis and are a staggering 0-6 in Q1(A) games this year, which is impressive as far as scheduling goes but to not capitalize on even 1 of those puts them in a really tough spot. The good news is that their ACC schedule is actually giving them plenty of opportunities down the stretch, it’s just going to have to happen all on the road aside from the Duke game to end the season. They get Pitt x2 and Duke/Clemson/FSU on the road, and not to sound like a broken record but just like the rest of these ACC teams they will have to find a way to pick up some big time wins or else they will find themselves slipping onto the wrong side of things.
Wake is back in a familiar position as the Demon Deacons have been barely on the wrong side of the bubble multiple times under Steve Forbes the last couple of years. They returned several guys from last year and had a ton of promise entering the season, they just haven’t capitalized much with just 1 big time win over Michigan early in the season. That win has aged very nicely, but their early ACC schedule hasn’t offered them much until very recently. They beat UNC at home to notch a 2nd quality win, although not Q1, and are going on a stretch of 5 out of 7 away from home that is going to offer up more chances. They also get Pitt/FSU at home so honestly the next 7 games are going to make up a critical part of their end of season resumé. We’ll have a much clearer picture on whether they can get back into the dance for the first time in 8 years in short order.
SMU has pretty much shown us who they are at this point, as they can beat up on bad teams but when they get on the floor against a high quality opponent they get drubbed. They find themselves on the watch though because on paper their resumé still gives them a chance. They obviously have to find a way to not get absolutely dog walked when they play good teams, but with just 1 loss outside of Q1 they are just a couple of quality wins away from being a real bubble contender. They still get Pitt/Clemson at home, so those 2 will be the ones I’m watching for, along with avoiding any disastrous losses along the way. They’ve already gotten the Duke/UNC/L’ville losses out of the way, so honestly they could be favored in all but 1 or 2 games the rest of the way. There’s a real chance for a run but again, a slip up or 2 would undue things quickly. They’re walking a tight rope but there’s still a chance.
This one may surprise some people, and frankly it surprised me a little too but the Cardinal have earned the right to be on the watch even if it’s more of a longshot. New HC Kyle Smith has quickly improved the quality of play here, and it was highlighted in their trip to Chapel Hill in which they knocked off UNC to pick up the win that put them on my radar. The issue with the path here is they don’t get any of the top dogs at home somehow, avoiding Duke/Louisville/Clemson and having to go on the road to play 2 of them still down the stretch. Those are great opportunities but count the same (Q1) as a home game would against those 3. They’re going to have to find a way to steal at least 1 of those, along with handling business at home vs Wake/SMU. They really can’t slip up much the rest of the way, and a win @ SMU would be massive this week to keep them alive.
Tom Izzo might be in the middle of orchestrating his best work, as getting this team, with zero star players and absolutely atrocious 3 point shooting to be in this position in the Big Ten right now is unbelievable. There is of course plenty of highly rated recruits up and down the roster, but just watching for a little bit you can see there isn’t a single all-conference caliber player, but in true Izzo fashion the sum has been greater than the individual parts. They are in the pole position in the Big 10 as we approach the halfway point, but even with all of that said it’s not quite enough for me to lock up as just 4 Q1 wins could become a problem if they hit a major skid. The schedule in February does toughen up, as they have to go to Illinois/USC/UCLA/Michigan/Maryland who are all really good teams right now. They could quickly be sub-.500 in Q1 in a matter of weeks so while the record is pretty right now, with how much they can struggle to make shots I’m still cautious with this one.
The Ducks looked like the favorite entering Big Ten play as they racked up wins over Bama and A&M during non-con play and were undefeated in their non-con games. However, they have hit some bumps in the road, some at home surprisingly, dropping games to UCLA/Purdue/Illinois in their own building, which is a surprise for the Big Ten where protecting your home court is always paramount. It could be some carryover from the Pac-12, along with some less rowdy environments out west, but the newcomers in general have struggled more at home. To top it off the Ducks just lost to Minnesota…welcome to Big 10 basketball. They do already have 3 road Big 10 wins to make up for the home losses, but clearly it’s proving more difficult than the non-con for them. They do still have an astounding 8 Q1 wins, second to only Auburn nationally, and with 3 Q1(A) wins they are still in a fantastic position that would take a monumental meltdown to blow.
The Boilers have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation and have navigated it pretty well considering they lost the NPOY from a season ago. Braden Smith’s emergence and Trey Kaufman-Renn’s improvement have both been critical to their success, but credit to Matt Painter as well as he changed the lineup around and made adjustments to turn them from sub-75 defensively a month ago to now top-25. Overall resumé wise their 10-5 record in Q1/2 is very strong, especially with the highlight of 3 Q1(A) wins vs Bama and Ole Miss/Oregon away from home. They are in a very solid position right now and with the elite wins, strong SOS and squeaky clean record outside of Q1 it’s hard to imagine they miss the tourney, but we’ll make them avoid a couple more losses before we officially lock them up.
The Badgers are once again off to a hot start as we speed toward February, but let’s take a trip down memory lane so we can properly understand my future hesitation toward locking the Badgers. The last two seasons they’ve gotten out to great starts and then melted down during Big Ten play. 2 years ago they finished the season 5-11 in the homestretch and missed the tourney and a year ago they went 3-8 to finish but did still go dancing. So, needless to say we’re going to remain cautious as we move forward to see if they can actually finish a season strong, and right now they’re in the thick of an 8 game stretch that includes 6 road games. They’re 1-1 in their first 2 but trips to Maryland/N’Western/Iowa/Purdue make for a stretch not many can come out of unscathed. We’ll see where they sit when the dust settles, but if it’s anything like year’s past it could get ugly.
Dusty May has done an incredible job turning this program around in year 1 and is right up there with Pat Kelsey in terms of success in taking a downtrodden power program and whipping them into shape. There has been a lot of excitement from college basketball insiders about this team, even hearing the tag of “Darkhorse Final 4 team”, but from a tourney and resumé perspective they aren’t quite in the position people probably assume they are. They have 2 high quality wins over Wisconsin/UCLA, on the road, but to be just 3-3 in Q2 is not good, the 154th NCSOS is not great either. A metric I like to reference a bit is WAB (Wins above bubble) and Michigan sits at 34th, putting them around an 9 seed per that metric. Now, it doesn’t always correlate perfectly to Selection Sunday, and Bracket Matrix has them as a 5 seed, but I certainly wouldn’t feel like this is close to a shut case, especially after watching them lose to Minnesota last week and narrowly escape Northwestern at home. It’s not going to get much easier than those games so we’ll see how they perform for a few weeks before we even think about locking them in.
This year’s Illini team is a bit of an enigma as everyone is infatuated by their ability to get hot and rain down 3’s on just about anyone, but they have laid up enough stinkers so far to make you stop and wonder. Underwood does deserve credit for replacing that much lost production and keeping them this competitive, but watching them most recently getting blown out by Maryland at home is a major red flag. Resumé wise they’re sitting in a good spot of course, but with just 1 Q1(A) win and being below .500 in Q1 at least keeps the door open for a meltdown still. I mean if you’re losing to USC and Maryland at home you can lose to almost anyone in this league on any night. They’re just 2-3 over their last 5 and head to a desperate Nebraska team this week, so this will be a fun one to track the rest of the way, as they can get hot and beat anyone in the league just as they can lose to anyone, as evidenced by the near upset of Sparty in East Lansing.
It’s been a rocky road for Mick Cronin and Co. as they started 10-1 and then went through a rut, losing 5 out of 6 including 4 in a row to kick off January. Since then they have bounced back, and it appears Cronin’s antics in post game pressers may have gotten through to his guys. They’ve won 3 straight to right the ship, including a big win over Wisconsin, so it feels like they’re back. They had 2 massive wins in non-con play over Arizona/Gonzaga and the win to begin Big 10 play @ Oregon wraps up their 3 elite wins. Overall just 6-6 in Q1/2 is good enough right now, but with a stretch of 3 straight Q1 games upcoming this could devolve into chaos quickly, and it begins in LA tonight with USC on tap. Given Cronin’s style of play I don’t see them taking on a bunch of bad losses, so I’m sure we’ll see the Bruins in the tourney, but their inability to score will likely keep them on the watch all the way until Selection Sunday.
The Terrapins are on a heater right now and quickly have gone from last 4 in to 8-9 seed range as they knocked off Illinois/Indiana on the road. They played an atrocious non-con schedule, the worst on the watch, but are now starting to take care of some Big 10 opportunities and build a legitimate resumé. Willard has gone to essentially only playing his starting 5, who have all played over 30 minutes these last 2 wins. It clearly has them rolling and they host Wisconsin in their lone game this week, so a win there and we’re probably looking at them in the “On the Right Track” category. So long as they can keep racking up Q1/2 wins it’s going to help make up for that NCSOS, which will be huge so long as the committee is consistent as they punished weak non-con schedules last year. They’re looking much better but the hay is not in the barn just yet.
The Buckeye’s started January by going 1-4 and looking like they may not even deserve to be on the first watch, and then they went to Mackey Arena and pulled off a massive upset of Purdue to notch a second elite win and a 3rd overall Q1 win to keep themselves alive. They have played a brutal schedule and boy would they love to have those 1 point losses at home to IU/Pitt back, but at the end of the day they have strong SOS numbers, multiple elite wins and plenty of chances down the stretch to improve their situation. They have some very winnable games at home that won’t do too much for them, including tonight vs Iowa, and Washington/Northwestern/Nebraska are must wins at home as well. Maryland/Michigan are the games you have to circle, as taking care of those home games will also be a must to notch 2 more Q1 wins and 17 overall. Add one or 2 road wins and now they’re cooking. That’s the path, and the game later this week @ Penn St is the perfect road chance to pick up and make this thing a little more comfortable.
Same old Hoosiers it appears, as in spite of all the talent that was brought in they sit in a familiar position as last year. They got off to a hot start in 2023, then endured a 2-8 stretch during Big 10 play as the calendar turned, and I fear we are in the midst of yet another of those runs. They are now just 1-4 in their last 5 games, with a trip to Purdue and Wisconsin up next. After that it’s Michigan at home and then a trip to 1st place Michigan St. It feels like best cast scenario is 1-3 in that stretch, which would make the run 2-7, with UCLA and Purdue at home on deck. That’s a brutal schedule I will admit, but losing to Maryland at home and to Northwestern/Iowa on the road sets you up for this kind of stretch. I have severely diminished belief that this will be a tourney team, and with Woodson missing yet another tourney I would think he’s on his way to getting canned. However, narratives can change quickly, and they still have to play the games, so anything can happen and that’s why they’re here still. They do have a perfect record outside of Q1 after all, so the resumé is plenty salvageable.
If you thought the Indiana Hoosiers were reeling take a look at Nebraska over their last 6 games. The Huskers have gone from solid tourney team with wins @ Creighton and vs UCLA to now enduring a 6 game losing streak, including inexplicable home losses to Rutgers and USC. That added 2 losses outside of Q1 and with just the 1 Q1 win they are pretty clearly out of it right now. They obviously are going to have chances to right the ship, but a losing streak like this is one you rarely see a team come back from. Their chances start immediately though, with Illinois coming to Lincoln in what feels like a must win because they head to Oregon after that. If the streak is up to 8 by next week they will likely fall off the radar, so finding a way to knock off Illinois is their only path to remaining relevant. We’ll see if they can get it done.
Northwestern had a massive hole to fill this year losing Boo Buie, but guys like Nick Martinelli and Brooks Barnhizer have stepped up and put them in a spot where they can go on a run. They have wins over Illinois/Maryland/Indiana at home to at least put them in the conversation. I will admit, it’s not a great resumé but they have the chances down the stretch to pick up big time Q1 wins at home which they’ve proven they can do already. They are also entering a 3 game home stand beginning this week with Rutgers and Wisconsin, then USC around the corner. Those are 3 winnable games that would put them in a pretty good position. Their schedule down the stretch is one of the easier I’ve seen in this conference with 6 of 11 at home and 2 road games with Washington/Minnesota which are winnable. They are an under the radar team to make a run so look for them to get rolling down the stretch.
In true Eric Musselman form he’s been able to take a rag tag group of transfers and find a lineup that works enough to get this team back into contention. It took a while, and they suffered some lumps, but behind the emergence of the Desmond Claude/Wesley Yates/Saint Thomas trio they have picked up wins @ Illinois/Nebraska plus at home over Iowa the last couple of weeks and are starting to put together a real resumé. They are still out of it at this point, but have two chances this week against UCLA/Michigan St at home to completely flip the script. If they go from 4-6 in Q1/2 to 6-6 they would likely jump onto the right side of things. What a turnaround and what a coaching job by Musselman who has started 10 different guys this year, but finally has settled on a rotation and play style that has made them very dangerous in the Big 10.
There’s not much to say here on the Hawkeyes, the path is extremely narrow but in the Big 10 you have plenty of chances to pick up big wins so they do still have a chance. The loss last week to Minnesota at home was almost the final straw, but that 6-0 Q2 record forced me to keep them here for at least 1 more week. Obviously, they’re going to have to pick up some Q1 wins, as at some point in order to be considered a tourney team you have to prove you can beat good teams. Their best win right now is Northwestern at home, so something has to change and next week they have Wisconsin/Purdue at home. Win those 2 games and all of a sudden they’re in the thick of it. Drop to 0-8 in Q1 games though and I think that shuts the door on their path. The formula is simple, win a big game.
Everyone who knows college basketball knows who Houston is as a team, and until this weekend we had been waiting to see them win a big game. They proceeded to go into Allen Fieldhouse on Saturday night and someway, somehow, pull out a 2OT win over Kansas. That win was the evidence on the resumé they needed to back up all of the metrics that were saying they are a top-5 team. Now that they have a Q1(A) win to go with all of the metrics it feels much safer, and you can be sure they will continue to rack up wins as we move through the Big 12. Their resumé still feels a lot like Auburn last year though, who was elite per the metrics but had just 3 Q1 wins entering Selection Sunday. The computers had them a 2 seed, the committee landed on 4, and that’s where I’m looking at Houston right now. There’s time to improve that, and I’m sure we’ll lock them up soon, but for now they are looking to beef up that Q1 record to vie for a better seed. Good news on that front, they’re heading to Morgantown and then hosting Texas Tech which are both Q1 chances. 2-0 this week and lock em up we shall.
The Jayhawks of course are on track to be a high seed in March, but they’ve had some hiccups along the way that keep them shy of lock status to this point. They did pick up massive wins early on over Duke and Michigan St that are what they’re hanging their hat on resumé wise. However, due to bringing in a lot of transfers it has taken some time for Self to find the right lineups offensively, and right when it seemed to start clicking they lost KJ Adams to injury. He should be back in a couple weeks, but with the quality of the Big 12, albeit slightly down, every game is going to be a challenge, as evidenced by their OT loss to Houston this past weekend. They have another big one this coming weekend @ Baylor, one they have to have if they want any shot at catching Iowa St/Houston at the top of the conference. Something Jayhawk fans are certainly not used to.
Zona really came out of the gates slow this year going 0-5 in non-con Q1 games as they tried to gel together a group of transfers and returning guys. They got it going in January though with road wins over Cincy/WVU and then a big home win over Baylor. They have yet to play one of the top teams in the Big 12 but it feels like the home game tonight with Iowa St is the perfect opportunity to really prove they are officially a threat this year like everyone thought coming into the season. Resumé wise they are in a good spot as it stands, but tonight’s game against the Cyclones kicks off a stretch of 6 out of 7 being Q1, so the resumé is going to develop quickly in front of us over the next couple of weeks. By mid February they could be basically as good as a lock or as bad as being out of it, as going 2-4 or worse in those games could sink this thing.
The Red Raiders played a disgustingly bad non-con schedule so there was a ton of pressure on them to deliver in Conference play. They have done so, picking up 3 Q1 wins in January already which is going to be huge as the committee made a statement last year in dinging teams who had awful non-con SOS numbers. Texas Tech ignored that warning, so they likely aren’t quite as safe as it may appear with an 11 NET ranking and 5-4 Q1/2 record. It of course won’t drag them all the way out, but it could cost a seed line or two, and if they start to incur some losses and venture toward the true bubble that will be a big stain on the resumé. It’s the Big 12 though so opportunity abounds, and they’ve clearly decided to inflate that record and just rely on winning big games in Conference, we’ll see if they can keep it up.
West Virginia: 13-6 (4-4) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 13 (57) Q1(A): (4-4) NET (43)
Right up there with Louisville the turnaround going on in Morgantown under Darian DeVries has been unreal. Especially when you consider they lost their leading scorer Tucker DeVries just 8 games into the season it’s amazing they are in the position they are at this point. They have already amassed 4 Q1(A) wins, one of the top numbers on the entire watch, with wins over Gonzaga/Arizona on a neutral court, a win @ Kansas and a home win over Iowa St. It’s hard to imagine with those elite wins that they find their way to the wrong side of the bubble at the end of the season, but we’ve seen stranger falls from grace and it’s still early. What I do know is they’re in a great position, with those wins and a strong SOS it will take a monumental collapse for them to not be dancing in year 1 under DeVries.
Baylor hasn’t been all that impressive this year after turning over most of their roster, but with the amount of talent Scott Drew brought in it feels like they could become very dangerous quickly if things start to click. Playing without Langston Love has also hurt, but with just one elite win over St. John’s they are running out of time for things to come together. They are on the safer side of the teetering category but Bracket Matrix shows them an 8 seed, with several slotting them lower so they certainly aren’t safe and with a couple losses could be squarely in the Last 4 In/First 4 out convo. With all of that said bringing Kansas in this week is just what the doctor ordered, with a massive chance to add a 2nd elite win and create some separation between them and the bubble, not to mention that follows a trip to BYU so we could enter next week with Baylor feeling very good at 4-5 in Q1 or possibly in a very dangerous spot at 2-7. Big time week for the Bears.
UCF sneakily has positioned themselves in a decent position, in spite of their poor metrics, as they have some really good wins over A&M and @ Texas Tech/Arizona St. The non-con schedule was pretty bad but they did pick up that A&M win and 3 Q1 W’s has to have you at least somewhere near the field. Most have them barely in as of now, fitting the teetering category perfectly. Their 4 losses are to the 4 best teams in the conference, which is a failure to capitalize but also means the schedule is going to soften as we go forward. They are going to have to pick up some big wins down the stretch, but for a team that was pretty overlooked coming into the season they have done well to give themselves a chance at dancing as we enter February. They haven’t been since 2019 either so Johnny Dawkins is fighting hard and the schedule now in the Big 12 vs the American gives them every opportunity you could ask for.
The Sun Devils actually started putting together a quality resumé in non-con play knocking off St. Mary’s and New Mexico, but Big 12 play has really beaten them down so far. They lost 4 out of 5 to start including a home game to UCF that was almost backbreaking, until they went to WVU and won to keep this thing alive. It is likely going to be touch and go the rest of the way with this group, but the strong SOS numbers and those wins in the non-con give them a fighting chance still even with the slow start to Big 12 play. They have several Q1 home games left with Arizona/Houston/Texas Tech all going to Tempe still, so the opportunities will be there to still give you some hope. Bobby Hurley is now in year 10 here and is still looking for his first tourney win and Arizona St as a program hasn’t had one since 2009, so I would think pressure would be mounting to get this program some momentum, we’ll see if they can find it.
Cincy has to be up there among the most disappointing teams this year, as they entered a top-20 team with a lot of juice around the program but have failed to capitalize on every big time chance so far this season. They’ve already lost 3 Q1 home games, and in a conference like this that is extremely difficult to overcome, especially when the non-con SOS is so pathetically bad. However, it’s not quite February yet so there’s still a chance they start landing some big time wins. They are going to have to find a way to do it on the road now though, with just Baylor at home as potential Q1 chance, they’re going to need that and then some. It’s not out of the question, but they have a lot to make up for and will quickly start running out of opportunities.
It hasn’t exactly been a smooth transition from Mark Pope to Kevin Young, but they’re here entering February with a glimmer of hope to get themselves into the tourney. They have started 8 different guys this year and lost star FR Egor Demin for a few games earlier in the year, so it’s been a bit bumpy but they’ve been playing better of late. The other aspect that gives me some hope they could go on a run is they have several home games against the top teams left, with Arizona/Baylor/Kansas all still to come to Provo. They obviously are going to have to maximize their chances being 0-3 in Q1 right now, but this is one of those potential sleeping giants as the talent is there, it just needs to come together. Whether it will or not remains to be seen but I am excited to watch it play out.
–Big East–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
St. John’s: 17-3 (8-1) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 103 (200) Q1(A): (0-1) NET (26)
The Johnnies are in a much different position this year as they’ve handled their business, taking no bad losses, but the SOS is horrible and the few big time chances they’ve had they haven’t capitalized. With just a 1-3 record in Q1 they are in the dance as of now but certainly should not feel safe. The only qualifying good win was @ Xavier, who isn’t in the field as of now, so they are going to need to land a marquee win if they ever want to feel like Selection Sunday will be safe. The good news is they still play Marquett/UConn twice, so just winning those home matchups will bolster the resumé, not to mention the rematch at home with Creighton. It looks promising right now, but you can guarantee if they only get to 2 or 3 Q1 wins then it could get dicey if they drop a few stinkers down the stretch. Let’s not forget the 2-8 stretch they went through last year around this time of year.
Hurley and his Huskies have had a rocky path so far as they try to accomplish the 3 peat. While it hasn’t looked like they have quite the same punch they’ve had over the last couple of seasons, they’ve still managed to be 7-5 in Q1/2 games in spite of the fact they went to Maui and went 0-3. The young guys have stepped up and Hurley has found his best lineup, but this still isn’t an open and shut case, especially with their propensity to play close games. They are one of the worst defensive teams of any team on the watch, and that inability to get stops means they have found themselves in dog fights against basically everyone. I don’t expect that to cause the wheels to fall off entirely, mostly thanks to their top-10 offense, but it certainly makes it a fun watch as they struggle as much with Gonzaga/Baylor as they do with Providence/Butler. They have a great stack of wins, but if their fortune turns and they start dropping more of these close games then it could get hairy. Safe for now, but I wouldn’t get too comfy UConn fans.
Massive credit needs to be given to this team and HC Greg McDermott as they took some lumps early, lost star transfer Pop Isaacs to injury and have still managed to turn the ship around and put themselves in good position as we enter February. They really locked in after a blowout loss @ Georgetown, and have gone 7-1 since that Dec 18th drubbing. Along the way they have stacked some very impressive wins, including Kansas/St. John’s at home and @ UConn. Even with all that, they still have the next 6 games that will all be Q1/2 games which could take this thing any number of ways. I like the trio of Kalkbrenner/Ashworth/Neal, so I’m confident they’ll finish strong and with strong SOS numbers and 2 elite wins they should feel good, but as we know things can turn quickly in this sport so no time to relax.
We’re starting to see this Xavier team turn the corner in my opinion, and while they wouldn’t be in the dance if Selection Sunday was today, they’re now right on the precipice. It seems to have taken some time for the transfers Miller brought in to gel with returning guys like Freemantle and McKnight, but the trio of Conwell/Foster/Maddox are improving, especially defensively. They have picked up wins over UConnand most notably @ Marquette recently to put themselves on the map, but they still have work to do. The schedule softens up as we head down the stretch, so the record should really improve, but my concern is that 1-6 Q1 record that they’ll have to improve to punch their ticket. It’s looking like they have just 2 chances the rest of the way, maybe 3 if Creighton enters the top-30, so games @ Nova/Creighton need to be circled.
Tennessee has been able to remain exactly who they are, losing Knecht and replacing him with Lanier, albeit a small step down, has kept the buzzsaw running and they are in a great position right now. They picked up big non-con road wins over Illinois/Louisville and another in conference over Texas. They just missed out on another massive one @ Auburn, but they clearly proved their defense and intensity is going to allow them to beat anyone in the nation, as we’ve become accustomed to. They haven’t had many big time games at home yet, but this week they get 2 such opportunities with both Florida and UK coming to Knoxville. Go 2-0 this week and it’s a wrap. A home loss though and falling to 5-4 in SEC play or worse and we might have to hang on to them, as this conference is too tough to be dropping games at home and stay comfortable. We’re being stingy, but Tennessee is as close as they come to locking up.
Let’s make no bones about it, this Gators squad is as good as we’ve seen out of Gainesville since they won back-to-back chips in the 2000’s. They can score at an elite level, they rebound it at an elite level and are much improved defensively compared to last season. The issue they have right now are the big time wins, as their lone elite win is the blowout of Tennessee at home. Compare that to Auburn and Alabama with 6 and 5 such wins respectively and that’s why they’re locked and the Gators remain. In fact, the rest of the Gators Q1’s are over teams not in the field right now, and while they qualify I would like to see them pile up some more marquee wins before we lock them up. In a conference like this where every game is tough things could unravel quickly for teams, so at not even the halfway point in SEC play we’ll make Florida earn it just a bit more, especially with the putrid 232nd NCSOS hanging out there. I think it’s a matter of when not if, but with 3 out of the next 4 being road Q1 games they have every opportunity to make it an open and shut case.
The Aggies have an insanely strong resumé right now, with 6 Q1 wins, 4 during the non-con slate, setting them up well as we get into the heart of SEC play. Wade Taylor is also back and healthy, meaning there are zero reasons for this train to not just keep on barreling its way toward a top seed in March. Their improvement from last year has come on the defensive end, as they still can’t shoot it a lick and rely on crashing the boards for extra possessions, but have gone from sub-60 on D to top-10. It’s a huge turnaround that has helped take pressure off of what is still a bad offensive group. Their 3 Q1(A) wins are strong, the SOS numbers are strong, but we’ve seen this program go on losing streaks, including a 5 game slide last year during SEC play, so I want to see a little more before locking them up. This week is the perfect setup for that with Oklahoma at home and a trip to S. Carolina. 2-0 and we’re going to feel pretty good.
Mark Pope has done a great job to keep the UK basketball train rolling as he brought in a rag tag group of very talented transfers and they’ve put themselves in great position. They have a whopping 5 Q1(A) wins, one of the best numbers in the country, but have also lost 5 games, most of which were on the road to lesser opponents than those they’ve beaten. The wins over Duke/Florida/A&M/Gonzaga/Mississippi St are a stack of wins very few teams can contend with, so locking them is most likely going to get done in short order. However, with the nature of the SEC and the fact they are heading to Knoxville next on the heels of 2 straight losses I think it’s prudent to give them some time. They still have 4 home games that will be non-Q1, giving them the buffer of wins they need to hopefully avoid any sort of collapse. I’m sure they’ll win more than just those 4, but with a good chance of landing their 3rd loss in a row I’m going with a wait and see approach with UK right now. In a great spot, but a loss @ Tennessee would make it a 2-4 stretch.
Ole Miss: 15-4 (4-2) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 15 (83) Q1(A): (2-4) NET (22)
Chris Beard has done a fantastic job turning around this Ole Miss program, and just like at Texas Tech he has them contending in year 2. He did much better this year at tailoring the roster to his play style, getting smaller/quicker frontcourt guys who could help them pressure and get after it defensively, which has turned them into a top-10 defensive unit. That’s his brand of basketball and we’re seeing it in Oxford now, and it’s working to the tune of 4 Q1 wins already and a squeaky clean resumé outside of Q1. They are sitting pretty, but have also hit a bit of a rough patch, losing 3 in a row including a heartbreaker at home vs A&M. That’s life in the SEC though, there are no nights off and seemingly every game is in that Q1 territory. Either way Ole Miss should feel pretty good with those wins over Bama/Louisville on the road. This week against Texas kicks off a 3 game home stretch that, while not easy, is about as nice as you can ask for given what this conference can throw at you. Not a lock just yet but I can see it getting there quickly if they take care of business.
Similar to a lot of these SEC teams Mississippi St has greatly improved their situation from last year at this time and are sitting pretty resumé wise. What they don’t have is what I would call an elite win, and while they technically have a Q1(A) win it’s @ Vandy, who is barely within the threshold to count. They really need one of the home games vs Bama/Florida/A&M to notch a mantle worthy W. Right now they’ve lost to the top teams in the Conference, so one has to start to waver on whether they truly belong with this group of teams we’re calling pretty safe right now. They did beat Ole Miss in OT, but that hardly has me confident they can contend with the teams in the upper part of the league. Now, that of course isn’t a big deal for just making the tourney given there’s 7 top-20 teams and a host of other good wins to get outside of them, but with how difficult the schedule can get it would be nice to see them knock one of the top teams off before locking them.
Mizzou is probably the surprise of the league so far this year, and maybe the entire country as HC Dennis Gates has maximized the talent he brought in. It’s a wild group of names you’ll recognize from previous stops like Mark Mitchell, Tony Perkins and Tamar Bates, but this group of transfers has played very well and has notched 2 top-10 wins already. They are in a great spot, although the NCSOS is poor they are already making up for it, especially with that shocker in Gainesville where they really cemented themselves. This by the way is on the heels of an 0-18 record last year in SEC play, so for Gates to rally the troops and put together a team this good when his job could have been on the line is mighty impressive. The most recent win vs Ole Miss just kept the train rolling and with a few more top flight wins over the next couple of weeks we may approach locking the Missouri Tigers. Something I certainly didn’t think I would say before the season started.
Once again the Sooners are looking to find themselves in the thick of the bubble conversations a year after being the first team to miss the dance. They did appear to learn a bit from last year’s experience by beefing up their non-con schedule, although still not great, it is much better than last year’s 274th, and it provided them 3 of their Q1 wins thus far (Michigan/Arizona/Louisville). The metrics all the while haven’t painted them in a good light, and their 46th NET rank has many putting them lower than you might expect. I would argue the NET rank should not be what people are looking at, as a great example was S. Carolina last year who was a 6 seed and ranked 51 by the NET on Selection Sunday. It will not sink Oklahoma, and their SOS improvement should help as well, but this start to SEC play should be the most concerning, as they’ve already lost twice at home and in this league that can spell trouble.
Right up there with Mizzou this Vandy team has been a huge surprise in year 1 under Mark Byington. The new HC brought in 10 transfers and completely transformed this roster into a team good enough to knock off both Kentucky and Tennessee at home already. While they scheduled probably the weakest non-con schedule of any power conference team, I think the SEC is going to offer them enough opportunities to make it a moot point come Selection Sunday, so long as they continue to knock off top teams. Their best win prior to last weekends win over Tennessee was LSU, so obviously they had major work to do in the SEC, and they’ve since added the UK win to put themselves firmly in the field per bracket matrix. I’m circling home games with Auburn/Ole Miss/Mizzou as the key games down the stretch that will beef up this resumé enough to keep them on the right side of things.
The Longhorns are mostly a rag tag group of transfers/freshmen that have taken some time to gel together. I’m not fully convinced they’re to their ceiling yet but with a couple of big wins here of late they’ve made a push into that last 4 byes group. They’ve picked up all 3 of their Q1 wins over the last 2 weeks, knocking off A&M/Mizzou at home and Oklahoma on the road to leap into the projected field. As we’ve said with every other SEC team, the opportunities are essentially every night, with chances to knock off top-20 teams around every corner so they can still keep climbing. They still host Bama/Kentucky, but also have home games with virtually all the other teetering teams so chances to separate from these other teams fighting for wins as well. It’s going to be fun watching these teams battle on the bubble as we go forward, and Texas looks to be right in the thick of things with plenty of chances left.
Well this is a new one, as this Georgia program hasn’t made the NCAA tourney since 2015 and hasn’t won a tourney game since 2002. Another example of a predominantly football school starting to make use of their funding in hoops, and with Mike White at the helm they have been playing very good ball this year with a young team to boot. They’ve had a brutal schedule even for SEC standards of late, playing 3 on the road (Tenn/Ark/Fla) and then Auburn at home. You can excuse a stretch like that but they have to start winning tough home games, and it starts with getting back on track against S. Carolina. They do already have 2 elite wins beating UK and St. John’s, which helps make up for a bad NCSOS, but they’re going to need to continue to defend their home court just to stay alive. First they need to end this 4 game skid, and frankly with 3 out of 4 at home they need a 3-1 stretch to stay on track.
LSU may be out of this thing but this is the SEC, where around every corner is opportunity to land a huge win, and frankly that is all their resumé is missing right now. They are 12-1 outside of Q1, so they clearly are a pretty good team, they just need to find a way to pick up some big wins to really make a run at this thing. It just so happens that 3 of their next 4 are at home, with Auburn coming to town this week off an incredibly hard fought win over Tennessee. Maybe they can catch Auburn asleep at the wheel a bit and land an elite win. Even if not they get Texas and Ole Miss at home as well so a 2-2 stretch over their next 4 would at least keep them alive. Anything less and they’re likely too far gone, but find a way to knock off Auburn or beat Georgia on the road and at 15-8 with 2 Q1 wins they would be right squarely on the bubble. The SEC truly is the land of opportunity, and a team like like LSU is going to get chance after chance to turn the corner and start winning big time games.
Well year 1 with Coach Cal running the show has been quite the adventure, as they started the season 11-2 including a win over Michigan so things were looking great. Of course, in this conference, life comes at you fast and the Razorbacks quickly found themselves 0-5 in SEC play and out of virtually all projected brackets. To add injury to insult they also just lost star guard Boogie Fland for the season to injury, so things hit a big low following that loss to Mizzou last Wednesday. In all they’ve only had 3 guys play in all 19 games this year, so injuries have been a problem, but there is no rest in this Conference, so we’re going to find out quickly what they have. They did bounce back at least which was encouraging, as with their backs against the wall they beat Georgia at home to at least stop the bleeding and keep their place on the watch for now, but the loss to Oklahoma has them on life support.
The Mountain West is down this year but the clear front runner in terms of resumé is this Utah St squad. The impressive thing about it is this is year 1 for new HC Jerrod Calhoun after Danny Sprinkle left for the UW job. He took Osobor with him, but Calhoun was able to keep several major pieces around and plug in the holes so well that they may be even better this year than last. They play 5 out and share the sugar, as they’re top-5 in assists and shoot it well from 3. There’s no star player but they just play free and loose offensively. Their resumé isn’t the strongest though, and with the weakness of the Mountain West they will probably take a hit seed wise due to their SOS. The big wins they have right now are on the road vs St. Mary’s/San Diego St/Nevada. The St. Mary’s win is aging like fine wine and qualifies as a Q1(A) win, so they’ll have to hang their hat on that one and just avoid taking bad losses the rest of the way. This is the Mountain West’s best shot at an at large.
Teetering:
San Diego St: 12-5 (6-3) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 38 (9) Q1(A): (1-1) NET (42)
The Aztecs are down this year just like the rest of the conference, but unlike the rest of the conference they played a legit non-con schedule and along the way picked up one of the best wins out there with a neutral court W over Houston, as well as Creighton as a little icing on the cake. They haven’t been consistent since, especially last week when they lost at home to UNLV. The bad news is they have just 1 more solid Q1 chance, @ Utah St, so building on the resumé is just not really going to happen. They can improve that Q2 record, but they are really going to go into Selection Sunday saying “remember when we beat Houston?”. I think those non-con wins will buoy them maybe more than people think, but the weakness of the MW is going to really hurt them, especially if they pick up a couple more stinkers like that loss to UNLV. It’s survive and advance for now though.
New Mexico: 16-4 (9-1) — Q1: (1-1) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (6-1) SOS: 107 (77) Q1(A): (0-1) NET (56)
It’s the same old song and dance for New Mexico as we enter the stretch run as they’ve picked up a couple of wins that make you think they’re tourney worthy but also have picked up some ugly losses to make things close. Similar to San Diego St they’re going to be leaning on a non-con win over UCLA as their proof they belong, but the losses to San Jose St and New Mexico St are pretty nasty, especially when they’ve only played 2 Q1 games all season, it’s tough to make up for those bad losses. They still play San Diego St/Utah St/Boise St on the road which will be Q1 chances though, so finding a way to at minimum win 1 of those will keep them alive. I don’t see how they get in at just 1-4 in Q1 though, so at least 2-3 is what I’ll be looking for. I suppose if they run the table in every other game and enter something like 24-7 they’ll certainly be alive but with all of these power conference teams having likely multiple wins and way better SOS numbers I just can’t see it. The path is winning road games against the top teams right now, have to find a way.
It’s not often we’re looking at Gonzaga with uncertainty when we head into February, but this year’s Gonzaga is not like the others. They have already lost 2 WCC games and have yet to play St. Mary’s, still have them twice. This is probably the deepest the WCC has been in the Mark Few era, even with BYU gone, so Gonzaga is not going to be able to just skate through conference play like they have in years past. They also didn’t build themselves as much of a buffer as they normally do, going just 2-4 in those non-con Q1 games. So, for now, they’re hanging on to November wins over Baylor and San Diego St which aren’t aging all too well as those teams struggle. I certainly don’t think the Zags are out of it right now, but there is a notion that a team ranked 15 in NET would automatically be in. Maybe that’s true, but this resumé is not very strong and that’s just the truth. Also, they’re just not as good as they have been, I mean they lost to Santa Clara at home. They still have to go to St Mary’s, Wazzu, Santa Clara and San Francisco. In a normal year I might expect only 1 loss from Gonzaga in a string of games like that, but this year I’m hoping they can at least split it, and wondering what going 1-3 would mean. Times seemingly have changed, and the WCC has closed the gap, we’ll see if they can switch a flip, but for now the Zags are on the ropes.
Saint Mary’s: 17-3 (8-0) — Q1: (0-0) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 149 (105) Q1(A): (0-0) NET (23)
I’m not sure how they do it but St. Mary’s continues to play the NET like a fiddle, playing 0 high caliber games, being barely above .500 in Q2 and still a top-25 NET team. This is why it’s not the end all be all for seeding, because this is about results, not about computer rankings. The fact is right now St. Mary’s hasn’t played enough high quality teams to feel like they should/deserve to be in the field. They are going to have to beat Gonzaga at least once, as well as some of the other contenders in the WCC. Nobody with 0 Q1 wins got in the field last year, in fact nobody with only 1 Q1 win got in either, it took at least 2 such wins a year ago. Fortunately for the Gaels the WCC has more chances than ever, and they have at least 4 Q1 games left on the schedule with a potential for 5 if San Francisco can climb a bit. I’m going to stick with wanting to see multiple Q1 wins by the end of the season to feel good about this resumé, and those start right away as they head to Santa Clara and then host Gonzaga this week. It’s nut up or shut up time.
Outside Looking In:
Santa Clara: 14-8 (6-3) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (4-4) Q3: (4-2) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 93 (111) Q1(A): (1-0) NET (60)
This is the first time I’ve gotten to write about Santa Clara after bubble watching for a couple of years now, but after they went on the road and beat Gonzaga they are firmly in the conversation. They haven’t made the tourney since 1996, before any of these players were even born, so a run to the dance would be historic for this team and one I’m certainly going to be following closely the rest of the way. They started the season rough, going just 3-5 over their first 8 games but have gone 11-3 since, picking up wins over 5 top-100 teams, none bigger than the aforementioned road win over the Zags. They host St. Mary’s this week in another huge chance to knock off one of the big dogs in this conference, and if they can get that done they will still be very much alive for an at-large berth. I love stories like this so you can bet they’ll be here with a longer leash than maybe they should, but again with the chances that the WCC is offering this year these teams can legitimately make a case. We’ll see if they can keep stacking wins and make some history.
San Francisco: 16-6 (7-3) — Q1: (0-5) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: 118 (178) Q1(A): (0-1) NET (74)
Of the teams in the WCC that look to have a path San Francisco’s is probably the most obvious, they have to win some Q1 games. The resumé is without blemishes, it just doesn’t have the top end wins that you need to punch a ticket. Their best wins right now are at home over Boise St and Santa Clara, so pretty meh. However, they still have both St. Mary’s and Gonzaga at home as games I’m circling as they will need to likely win both to have a chance to get in on their resumé alone. The pessimist in me would see that they just lost by 20 @ St. Mary’s so I maybe don’t have the highest hopes they can beat both of them at home, but it is not about what I think will happen, it’s about what could possibly happen here at the watch, and the fact is San Francisco has a clear path to an at-large. Handle your business and knock off St. Mary’s and Gonzaga. Ready break.
The Beavers have an outside shot, mostly due to their home win over Gonzaga that at least put them on the map. The addition of Oregon St and Wazzu have helped to elevate this conference and added to programs that, at least for this year are adding to the depth of competitive teams. It has made life for difficult for Gonzaga and St. Mary’s, and the Beavers still get a crack at the Gaels next week. I have a bad feeling about this rematch with Gonzaga this week, as I’m sure they’ll have a tough time beating them twice, but overall I think the path is still there if they run the table outside of those road matchups with the top 2. We’ll have the St. Mary’s game circled, as if they lose that they’re out, and if they drop a stinker that likely boots them out as well. It’s a longshot, but if you can get to multiple Q1 wins you’re giving yourself a chance.
The Flyers had a very good start to the season, doing exactly what you need to do as a mid-major to earn an at-large. They beat Northwestern, UConn and Marquette, giving them 3 power conference wins and setting them up to cruise through the A-10 on their way to a 2nd trip to the big dance in a row. And then seemingly out of nowhere they fell off a cliff, losing 3 straight games, including 2 to sub-150 teams and then at home to a decent George Mason team. Getting caught off guard and losing a stinker is one thing, but 3 straight losses in games you’re heavily favored is a major red flag and has sunk their resumé all the way to outside of the field. They have bounced back to win 3 games in a row since then, in part due to the benching of Zed Key, which does again throw up a red flag that some dissension has hit the locker room. They have a trip to a feisty St. Bonaventure on deck so we’ll see if the lineup changes have snapped them back into gear, and if so they have some rallying to do in order to not have it all ride on the A-10 tourney.
VCU didn’t do themselves any favors with their horrid schedule but I do think this is a tourney quality team who with more opportunities may have a less bleak chance at an at-large bid. The issue is of course the lack of quality wins, and again they just didn’t have many chances to get them, with 0 Q1(A) games on the schedule. I would venture to say they will need to run the table other than the road trip to Dayton if they want to have any chance at an at-large, although after last year seeing Indiana St not get in it’s hard for me to make these cases for the mid-majors. VCU’s best win right now is @ St. Joes…not even close to good enough, and frankly the only better opportunity left is the home and home with Dayton. They may have to sweep that to have a chance, but at minimum they need to beat them at home and then win every other game.
Memphis played the non-conference about as well as a non power conference team can, taking a page from Gonzaga’s book and playing a gauntlet of a schedule. They have wins over Michigan St, Clemson and UConn away from home and then Ole Miss and Mizzou at home. That NCSOS is going to likely lead them to being the highest seeded team from the mid-major crop of schools and with an overall 10-3 record in Q1/2 they are sitting in a great spot. Obviously, the American is full of trap games, and they’ve already fell victim once losing to Temple, on top of their slip up vs Arkansas St. What they did scheduling wise, and then capitalizing on their chances, is going to more than make up for those slip ups, and they can probably afford even a couple more. They won’t want to take on too much water, but as it stands they are in a fantastic position and need to just grind through the American slate so they can try and make some noise in March.
I keep going back to the Indiana St example in my mind when I’m looking at these mid-major resumés and it’s just clear Drake is a step behind where they were last year. They do have that 2-0 Q1 record which is massive, and frankly that gives them a good chance. However, just 1-1 in Q2 is not strong at this moment in time. They may only have 2 or 3 more chances to improve that, but if they can get it to 4-1 plus that 2-0 Q1 record then I think they would have a real argument. It’s also worth mentioning that all of this is on the heels of their HC and best players all leaving the program, so a huge shout out to HC Ben McCollum who is leading his first program at this level and doing an insanely good job. He of course was one of the best DII coaches in the country, so success is not all that surprising, but it certainly is rare to see a guy come up from DII, bring guys with him and then have a season like this. He’s almost assuredly going to get offers after this season from power conference teams, but for now we’ll just enjoy the ride in the Missouri Valley and look forward to a hopeful Arch Madness champ game with Bradley that will be epic.
Let’s all welcome the Anteaters to the watch, and as one of the top defensive teams in the country they certainly have earned there way to this spot. They are 4-1 in Q1/2, and while the SOS numbers are very bad, having that kind of record in those games at least puts them legitimately in the conversation. Do they have an elite win? No. And frankly that is probably what will limit them if they do lose in the conference tourney, as they likely would face a similar fate as Indiana St did a year ago. They have the win @ UC San Diego, the other top contender in this conference, and will get them at home later with a chance to add a 4th Q2 win. They were 17-3 in the conference last year and lost in the first round, so not only are they hungry to get to the dance they also likely have a little extra to play for after that kind of loss last year. They deserve to be in the conversation, but their chances are very small. Gotta run the table and hope for minimal bid stealing.
The Missouri Valley is once again giving us a path to an absolute massive championship game in Arch Madness. Last year it was Drake/Indiana St, with the losing Sycamores just missing out on the big dance. Now Bradley gets to try and knock off Drake, and with an above .500 record in Q2 they are at least flirting with the conversation, albeit pretty far out of it in my opinion. The obvious issue they have is not only no Q1 wins but giving themselves 0 chances to even pick one up. I know it’s hard for these mid-majors to schedule tough non-con games, but with this kind of schedule it almost makes it impossible to get in without winning the conference tourney. While they may be a talented enough team to be on the watch, they may just be limited by their schedule in the end. For now, they deserve some shine, but ultimately it may just come down to Arch Madness once again.
We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. Quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with an whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. For those of you who are new here there’s a quick refresher further below, but off the jump we’re going to dive into some thoughts on Auburn and address why it may be the prevailing opinion that the Tigers are the clear #1 and what that means for the contenders/pretenders discussion.
Auburn right now is the darling of every efficiency nerd out there, gasping at the absurd offensive efficiency numbers they have put up through 15 games. And it is historic, worthy of a gasp even. However, based on what I have setup here with the archetypes, Auburn doesn’t land in the top tier, with a 19th ranked defense they are left in what I would call the 2nd tier right now with teams like Florida and Houston. Many would find that absurd, maybe just write off the entire exercise based on that one fact. However wild it may seem, I am just looking at the data, and what history can tell us. Above all, if you’re just looking for me to tell you the highest rated teams are the best teams then you’re in the wrong place. I’m trying to separate teams, to understand why the best don’t always win it all. Right now what it suggests is that Auburn’s holes defensively are an indicator, one that puts pressure on their offense to be elite every night, which they have done well with so far I might add. Even the one loss to Duke they scored 78 points on 63 possessions which is highly efficient, but it wasn’t enough as they gave up 84 to the Blue Devils. Therein-lies the concern, could they be hampered in an Elite 8 game by their defensive issues, facing another top flight offense that could find a way to slow them down just enough. Iowa St nearly did it, leading by 16 at halftime only to fall by 2 while scoring 81 on 71 possessions. Even Houston pushed them to the brink putting up 1.11 ppp in a 5 point loss that they led with 10 minutes to go. So in their 3 games against other top teams they went 2-1 with all games decided by 6 points or less. What that suggests to me is the gap isn’t as wide as people think, because they are struggling to get stops consistently. I’m not suggesting Auburn is bad, or that they’re a first weekend upset pick, not in the slightest. But in a year where there are several elite teams establishing themselves, Duke/Iowa St, who show elite ability on both ends of the floor, you should at least think twice about crowning Auburn the obvious best team. As the data shows, we have seen time and time again elite offensive teams lose because they couldn’t get stops, and while Auburn is still a top-20 defensive team, they’ve fallen from top-10, so a worrisome trend. It’s also something that could get remedied over the coming weeks but I had to touch on it as the prevailing thought is they’re the obvious #1, but you’ll see below that’s not the thought here at this moment in time.
Quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update plus 2nd graphic to show movement from 2 weeks ago to this week:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with an whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
Auburn continues to fade, as discussed above at length, but Iowa St and Duke are really starting to establish themselves as elite teams. This is Iowa St’s 2nd week here and Duke has been here multiple weeks in a row. Duke is going to have it pretty easy throughout ACC play, so it’ll be tougher for Iowa St to remain here but either way these are the two at the top of my list right now.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
We have nobody falling here this week in a bit of a surprise but in weeks to come I’m sure that will change.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
We have a bunch of teams right here knocking on the door of great but just not quite there. Florida’s defensive numbers are being bogged down by 2 games against UK and UNC in which they gave up 84 and 106 respectively. I see them moving up soon, and Auburn is fading defensively but could easily snap back up a peg. I’m not sure Houston is good enough offensively to crack the top-15 but they have bounced around quite a bit so we’ll see how it goes. The others aren’t as strong but newcomers Michigan and Arizona are getting hot as we roll through January.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
Tennessee took a big hit with the blowout loss to Florida, but beyond Lanier they have nobody who can consistently score so I wouldn’t be surprised if they hang out here going forward. Bama continues to improve defensively as they’ve solidly moved here from Matador territory and are going to opposite direction as Gonzaga who has faded from Solid to here. Sparty finall broke free from Wannabe status and finds themselves here behind some great D and finally St. John’s, who has slowly been drifting toward Grinders status for a while now, will they hold on?
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
Finally a bit of a change here as Purdue and Baylor busted out and UK and Texas Tech found their way in. UConn is fading defensively but hanging around the top-30 thanks to Hurley’s offensive genius. Either way, can’t trust these teams.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
UCLA seems to be a permanent resident here, unless they fall out of the top-30 like Cincy did. The Johnnies are flirting with this land and San Diego St is 31st but would join UCLA here if they crack the top-30 next week. No trust for these teams either.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
We have 2 groups here imo, with A&M and Miss St being on the brink of Solid status and the rest hoping to break into strong enough territory. I doubt we see Purdue/Baylor/Wisconsin enter the top-25 defensively, but all are surging as the Badgers are new overall and Purdue/Baylor have made their way here from Matador status. All of these teams are still alive to be trustworthy down the road and all are improving week by week.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
UNC and Ole Miss are back as they re-enter following the fall of teams like Cincy and Clemson. They are not exceptionally strong on either end, that’s why they’re here, so if they do hang around the top-30 it might continue to be in Vanilla land. Oregon bounced back from their beating by Illinois but still haven’t separated themselves, and Pitt and Memphis look like they belong right here or not even in the top-30. Also Maryland is in a free fall, we’ll see if they bounce back.
We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. For those of you who are new here there’s a quick refresher further below, but off the jump we’re going to dive into why I chose “ranks” over “rating” when compiling and comparing all of this data, which seemed to be a hot topic last week.
The primary reason for ranks is how much the game has changed as we’ve simultaneously improved the skill level of players over the last 20 years and also embraced an analytical approach. Teams are simply able to score with more efficiency these days, and the numbers show that. If you look at ORating in 2006, a top-25 offense just needed to be >113. This year there are 63 teams that have an ORating >113. If you look at >115, it’s 13 vs 42. So, if you’re using rating, you would look at a team that is only the 42nd best scoring team in the country this year and be comparing their tourney results (if they even made the tourney) to a team from 2006 that was the 13th most efficient offense in the country in the season that mattered to them. You could say, well yeah but I want to see how a team that efficient performs, but to that I would say you’re trying to compare a 2025 Tesla to a 2005 Dodge Durango. How about we look at that Durango in the context of its time, how it performed against its competition. IE, how did the 15th best offense in 2006 compare to the 15th best offense in 2024 (even though the rating difference is 114.9 vs 119.7). The point is for both teams there were only 14 teams in the country more efficient than them scoring the ball, regardless of how good it was, in context, they are far more similar than comparing that 114.9 to what would’ve been the 43rd best offense in 2024. And it’s not just at the extremes, the entire landscape of the game has shifted to increased offensive efficiency, meaning not just the most efficient teams are better, all teams are better as you saw above. So, in order to properly compare teams of the past to teams of the present, to try and figure out why some teams who are highly efficient make deep runs and others don’t, I looked at how they “ranked” amongst their competition. Florida in 2006 was objectively an elite team and won the National title, they were 3rd on O (117.9) and 7th on D (89.7). If you transplanted them to 2025 that would be 25th and 5th, but they didn’t have to play 2025 teams in March of 2006. So, if I was trying to draw a line on what I would consider elite I would want to capture 2006 Florida, so I would have to draw the ORating line to include 117.9. I then would have to include at least 25 teams this year, which is far more than what I would consider worthy of being called “Elite”. Ranks, at the end of the day, are the best apples to apples historical comparison given the changes we’ve seen. You could argue those comparisons are unnecessary since the game has changed I suppose, but in a world where we want to analyze why the best teams don’t always go on deep runs a historical analysis seems logical, and using rating would result in a skewed view of what the teams of the past were, which would impact what we think of teams today. End scene.
Quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update plus 2nd graphic to show movement from first week to this week:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St and Auburn land here with Duke still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. Over 2/3’s of teams who enter the tourney as top-10 on both ends teams have made it to the Elite 8 which is an astounding number given just a slight dip to top-15 drops to 55%.
We lost Auburn from this group this week but I wouldn’t make too much of it, as their offense is still looking so elite. UConn entered the tourney last year looking very similar at 1st and 11th, so with Auburn at 1st and 12th they are right here with Duke in my mind as the two most trustworthy teams as it stands.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here, as we do this week. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
Already mentioned Auburn and Marquette has been a mainstay among the quality teams this year, the bigger surprise is Illinois who blew out Oregon to fly up the rankings. We’ll see if they maintain this level of play, but that sure was an impressive performance and one a young team can build on.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
Tennessee, Houston and Iowa St are all sliding as we enter conference play as the’ve taken hits on their weaker ends of the floor. That is very consistent with what we’ve seen in the past with Houston and Tennessee, but interesting to see Iowa St flip and be better offensively than on D. Of the 3 they are the ones I could see returning to better places if they lock down on D. As we recognize the sliders we must also mention Michigan entered the chat, pushing all the way from Vanilla to Solid as Big Ten play gets rolling again.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.)
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
UConn, Baylor and Purdue are all solidly living in this archetype, looking like teams to avoid come March. Kentucky and Bama have both flirted with this territory as well, so there’s as many as 5 teams worth tracking if they can improve defensively over the coming weeks.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
Cincy has now joined UCLA in Grinder territory, with a couple of wins in true grind it out fashion as they barely scored over 1 point/possession against a poor defensive team in Dayton.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
This week St. John’s and Kentucky both dropped big time into dangerous territory and are stories to watch as we keep tracking week by week.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
Memphis and Clemson are our new entrants as UNC and Ole Miss fell out this week. They are not exceptionally strong on either end, that’s why they’re here, so if they do hang around the top-30 it might continue to be in Vanilla land. Oregon took a beating at the hands of Illinois so we’ll see how they rebound from that this next week as they’re falling quickly toward sub-30 territory after being “Solid” at one time.
We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. For those of you who are new here stick this through for a quick explanation, for the vets on this page you can skip this intro unless you’d like a refresher. The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Run N’ Gun
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update plus 2nd graphic to show movement from last week:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St land here and Auburn and Duke are sliding in this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. Over 2/3’s of teams who enter the tourney as top-10 on both ends teams have made it to the Elite 8 which is an astounding number given just a slight dip to top-15 drops to 55%.
So far this year Auburn has clearly looked like the best team in the country in my opinion, given the quality of wins and how they’ve done so. Their defensive rank has lagged a bit but after last week they’ve vaulted into this category alongside Duke who flexes on the other end. Duke has more room to improve just given the number of FR that are getting better and better, but both are beginning to separate themselves.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here, as we do this week. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
It does stand to reason you can have a bit more confidence in Gonzaga with their #3 offense than Oregon who is teetering on Vanilla status. Context and some discretion is of course advised here on all of these, but the implication here is that these teams have less of a hammer to lean on compared to teams like Auburn and Duke who are the best teams in the country on one end of the floor but also elite on the other. So while Gonzaga is elite offensively their lack of defensive might signals a potential weakness, albeit not to the extreme of our more vulnerable teams below.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Run N’ Gun” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability though, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.)
RUN’ N GUN
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the track meet types, who struggle to stop you but can score at an elite level and whose ability to win relies on winning a shootout. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
UConn, Baylor and Purdue are all solidly living in this archetype, looking like teams to avoid come March. Kentucky and Bama have both flirted with this territory as well, so there’s as many as 5 teams worth tracking if they can improve defensively over the coming weeks.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Run N’ Gun group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
Cincy has now joined UCLA in Grinder territory, with a couple of wins in true grind it out fashion as they barely scored over 1 point/possession against a poor defensive team in Dayton.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
This week St. John’s and Kentucky both dropped big time into dangerous territory and are stories to watch as we keep tracking week by week.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
Ohio St is a new entrant to the top-30 after dismantling Kentucky so we’ll see if they stay hot and improve on their position. Clemson fell out and Ole Miss dropped into dangerous territory as they’re barely hanging on.
5-STAR Bracketology 